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Distribution

DEERE IN HEADLIGHTSHey guys, As the other names in the market have been crashing, DE has always stood out to me for how well it has held up to this point. That being said, I do not expect this to hold up for much longer. Starting with basic fundamental analysis, DE is overvalued compared to its historical figures- the stock generally is usually at a single-digit P/E ratio, but currently rests above 16. On a technical analysis basis, the stock is extremely extended to the upside, is fresh off of a false breakout, and has a lot of room down before the year-end. In the immediate term, I expect the stock to hold up through July and maybe even see a little fakeout rally. That being said, I think the stock is entering a markdown phase and should be headed lower in a violent manner by August. This is backed by other distribution patterns in other agriculture names(CF, CAT) and in mutual funds such as MOO. I would not be surprised if this stock saw its pre-pandemic levels before year-end. Disclaimer: I'm currently short on DE with a cost basis of $388/share and am looking to size up my position
NYSE:DE
by MichaelEugen1
1
IWM/RUT Wyckoff Distribution is BACK!?About 3-4 months ago, I mentioned that the Russell 2k was showing signs of distribution (huge consolidation before a downtrend). I outlined where big money was selling and where they flipped short. Since the breakdown, we have seen nearly 3 months of consolidation. One could argue that the consolidation was symmetrical with higher highs and higher lows. That, my friends, would be the makings of a BEAAAAR FLAAAAG. If this bear flag correctly plays out, the target to the downside would be about 170 which is former resistance AND a previous gap. Closing above the previous local high at 205 is probably a good stop out.
AMEX:IWMShort
by Decam9
ATOM/USD 1D. The situation right now on the coin.#ATOM/USD 1D Binance. Updated the coin idea. I made a "global" analysis and described the situation for you. Now I will describe it in text here. Pay attention to the interesting name of the coin - COSMOS (ATOM) . Here is an analogy similar to Terra (Luna). I think everything is clear here. The cosmos is big, the Atom is small (the particle that makes up the Cosmos and our material world as a whole). Hyperlink left the project page in CoinMarketCap. This coin has been in accumulation since 2019 (history from the Binance exchange chart). Accumulation ~ 2 years. After accumulation, an impulse occurred, the distribution began exactly near the accumulation goal (the average distribution price is the exact accumulation goal). Showed on the graph. Also note how clearly the price "respected" (that is, reacted) to this level afterwards (a clear retest when breaking the distribution). I also painted it on the chart. After leaving the accumulation, a large horizontal channel began to form (shown on the chart). Similar to Bitcoin (consolidation/sideways with lower and upper boundaries). After the distribution in this horizontal channel (shown on the chart - Distribution), the price has clearly reached the goal of this distribution (also displayed on the chart). An ascending triangle (rising lows and a flat top) was also formed in this large channel, which was subsequently broken down. If this triangle works out, its goals are shown on the chart. It is also worth noting that from the minimums of the accumulation, an upward trendline (purple) began to form, which was very jewelerishly broken down just when leaving the accumulation. There was a retest of this trendline. All this is shown on the chart. After the breakout and retest of the ascending trendline from the bottom up, a descending trend of the secondary trend began to form (red on the chart, also designated it - the secondary trend line). If there is a breakdown of this trend - a reversal of the secondary trend to an upward one (breakout + the proof of breakout / retest). Now the price is consolidating in a small range at the lower border of the large horizontal channel (possibly a repeat as in the summer of 2021). Pay attention to this point on the chart. The price from the average values of a large accumulation is still at a good profit (now 155% as shown). That is, those who have accumulated are still in the black. Therefore, there is still a place to sell. Also note that the volume gradually began to appear. And what this volume was at the peak of the fall (capitulation). Potential levels from below as well as from above are shown on the chart.
BINANCE:ATOMUSD
by TradingTsar
Potential Distribution FormingNice BOS on the 10/15m on SPX, if we see this turn into a distribution and continue to fail the highs/break the lows i'll be looking for sells on NAS/US30... If this is a Sign of weakness now we should get a push down (Tricking the early sellers) before a liquidity hunt up wiping them out before the move continues down... (If this turns out to be a true schematic) Will probably happen during NYSE open (If it does) Let's see.. * Disclaimer ** These ideas I never trade until the end target with my initial lots, I focused on high probable entries with higher lots and use a specific partial taking strategy giving me a very high win rate and take most of my profits very early, I only leave a small % of my capital to run the entire trade. On the flip side im constantly monitoring LTF momentum and will close early if things change, these analysis's are for research purposes only.
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by ProFxAI
CADCHF push to the supply and SELLLast week's price has been steadily rising up, showing some signs of Wyckoff's redistribution. We're patiently waiting for the price to reach the 0.756 area, and if/ when that happens we'll be looking for SELL opportunities (expecting the price to reach 0.747 area). But we'll have to see a clear Break of Structure to the downside first (possibly on the lower time frames). However, if the 0.757 zone is breached, we'll look for the structure formed and decide on the later moves. Happy trading.
Short
by GibsonTrades
APPL Detecting Successful Trades Without Needing a SubscriptionI see a successful trade as a trade either makes money or mitigates losses and further loses. An example of this is the trade I made on may 17th and exited 5 minutes into the day of May 18th. The price dropped 5% further. Long story short, I have thought APPL looked like crap since April 7th, when both Hull averages on the day and 4HR timeframe lined up in a bad way just days after APPL was set up in a bullish formation (with my indicators). To me, that kind of movement is a standard signal for significant downwards movement. Possible downwards targets where I look for action. Key mention. When looking for a buy I expect nothing to bounce 100% anywhere. I almost ALWAYS look at price action at these areas. I never expect a bounce or drop for sure just because a line resides there. Downwards targets: 118-122 79-88 I list the possible upwards targets in the video, but if somehow APPL does go up, it most likely has a lot of bumps on the way. Saying definitive upwards targets seems disingenuous. The 2 Indicators I use are listed in the first 30 seconds of the video. By using only 2 indicators, this means that anyone can use this strategy to analyze on TV without needing to buy a subscription. I still recommend the subscription for analyzing, because I enjoy double charts. DoubleHull by KivancOzbilgic (375 and 500 length Hull moving averages) SMMA (200 length Smoothed moving average) Not the SMA! (Simple moving average) If you'd like, you can check my Related Idea "Market Update: Being right is boring" below. I mention APPL at the 2 Minute mark. I also added the Related Idea "How I Analyze the Market in 20 minutes." which gives a more in depth look with more examples of how I analyze the overall market using the 500/375 Double Hulls and several tickers. Check it out if you enjoy. Take care and stay healthy yall.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by TrendLINEBoys
BITCOIN HTF OUTLOOK (BEARMARKET)Here come my thoughts on the Bitcoin situation at a macro scale. 3 deviations (65k, 67k, 69k) to bait longs and tap liquidity in the market. We are clearly in a bear market on the HTF and I don't expect it to be over any time soon. Many sucker rallies happening but don't forget that these easily fade quickly in a bear market. Since the beginning of 2022 Bitcoin has been trading in a range that looks like a redistribution range, again 2 deviations might be going for a third and final deviation in this range before finally seeing 30k's. Obviously order book showing lots of buy orders resting at 30k, there is no doubt we go below here to get everyone to exit their positions. This is where you will see the "bear market has started" news which was happening already before their eyes. Now reasons as to why I'm calling 24-20k bottom: CME Gap on Bitcoin futures Daily and weekly demand zones 20k would be a retest of the old ATH from late 2017 that never got backtested I want to entertain the idea that 2021 was the beginning of a big accumulation range/structure as we have been trading in a range on the HTF. If that is truly the case we have yet to see the "super cycle" everyone is talking about which will be something we truly have not seen before. Do with this information as you will! NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE [
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by SpaceBlobb
4
Wyckoff Distribution TELLmany failed upthrusts occurred within the upper range and medium range of the channel. One major lesson I have learned with identifying a Wyckoff schematic is that ranges must be horizontal. Horizontal ranges would identify price levels. This is far more important than resistance levels. Though price and resistance may be the same, the concepts listed evolve around price still. Thus, this means that horizontal ranges are far more potent than angled ranges. This being said, now you can paint the real picture of strength and weakness at price ranges. As you may see here, a big distribution is set in, we have a bullish stance at the BC, AR, ST level. The bias is a reaccumulation. However, it seems that we have sold into a minor sign of weakness. Price has then remained there in phase b, finally. We have confirmation of weakness as we go to retest the ST areas in phase a, failing to make a big upthrust. it is now that we are ready to move down. It is evident that big money has sold off their shares to others.
TShort
by Integrity_Investments
2
XAUUSD Gold : Understanding recent 8 week price action! 28.4Hey guys! Really important for me you read the text on chart to understand fully. Accumulation phase means buyers are feeling out the market and price action is likely preparing for a breakout up. Distribution phase means the buyers are offloading their stock, essentially taking profits, shorting traders also enter the market bringing price action down. Usually, depending on the down-trend, there could be a re-distribution phase or two within the down-trend. At the bottom of the down-trend we again have the accumulation phase initiate with potential upside breakout. On the chart you will find real time review of the phases and bullish possibility is very valid supported by technical indications such as: *RSI double bottom oversold *Falling wedge pattern - consolidating highs and lows in a wedge shape down, bullish *Connecting lows of the last 8 weeks *Horizontal level of support ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you liked my idea and thoughts, please like and follow! I promise to continue and provide quality content daily. I also will answer any and all comments and encourage you to ask questions. Thank you so much :D ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Exactus
7
QCOM Wyckoff Distribution?Toward the end of last year, I posited the idea that QCOM was executing a "fake-out break-out". Bears get trapped after a failed consolidation then get short squeezed higher. Instead of trading to new highs, QCOM has only consolidated in a range near ATH. This leads me to believe that distribution is occurring near ATH. This is a major piece to wyckoffs price cycle. I have marked off the elements of the distribution cycle that I believe we have seen so far. The remaining elements are a final upthrust (optional) and last point of supply, which traps bulls in a false breakout and converts the last of a long position into a short position. Set up: The pattern breaks down when the Auto Reaction support zone is broken. I am looking to take a short below that level (~$170). I will be looking for a break below the 100 sma as well as RSI to cross below 50 and MACD to perform a bearish crossunder. Risk Management My price target is near 140. It happens to be the gap fill and the fib extension. That is about a $30 drop from current levels. I believe a $3-5 stoploss is appropriate for this kind of swing trade. I am sitting on my hands until I get confirmation that a breakdown will occur.
NASDAQ:QCOMShort
by Decam9
Wyckoff Distribution on UJI've been shorting UJ on lower time frames due to support and resistance between 127.73 and 128.695 respectively, using supply zones. Usually on 15 and 5 min TF for an intra-day strategy. I moved onto the 1 hour as I wanted to see the general market structure and what to expect to see. I have marked out several structures which can be recognised in Wyckoff distribution. Of course, this is in the early stages, so I will be watching and keep updating this post on how it plays out, however, we could be seeing the reversal of the huge bullish run presented by UJ. If anybody has any ideas, feel free to include them below!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn31942210
US30 UPDATESince my previous analysis on the DOW everything played out exactly as i projected - price rejected the monthly supply zone and formed a new weekly and potential monthly LH formation and has began making the continuation to the downside - if we drop to the 1D TF we can clearly identify a distribution has been taking place we have a very clear elliotwave ABCDE with a new confirmed downtrend with two LL and LH confirmed formation. We are going to be looking at entering a new short from the identified confluence of resistance once we see a small bullish induction move and confirmations on the Lower TFs
UShort
by ITSCRYPTO1
HOW TO: Differentiate Accumulation vs DistributionHello, in this video I discuss a current active trade on AUD/JPY (see my page) and how I decide whether a consolidation phase is in accumulation for a wave up, or distribution for a wave down... I believe that the AUD/JPY pair is in a distribution phase and I explain why in the video. don't usually make videos and I'm sort of congested today so sorry if sound quality isn't subpar... :) safe trading and have a good weekend!
Education
by UnknownUnicorn37609548