Falling KnifeUnfortunately breakout scenario failed and our most important level 58k was lost. If we can't reclaim it by the monthly close, i expect further down side and mark down of the distribution range to complete.
First strong support is below fib. 0.5(48.900) 47.500 / 47.600
Second and stronger support is at 43.160 weekly level between fib. 0.618 & 0.66 also near monthly support at 48.384
In case a Black Swan type action occurs, 36.964 is where the previous distribution POC is.
When this down trend comes to an end, we will probably be looking at a head and shoulders pattern with the right shoulder in the making.
To the upside, as i said 58k should be reclaimed and green stop buy line must be crossed.
Not much to say for now, there's no need to try catching the falling knife, so let's put the stop buy alerts and see how it unfolds.
If you enter any long positions, use a tight stop loss.
Distribution
Last ExitHi all,
After a perfect call of the top, here's the last chance to exit.
We have bounced off of 56.766 and a new micro distribution comes in to play. We have completed the SOW and heading towards UTAD around the POC. This is the last chance to exit before mark down.
Trade safe and use a stop loss.
PS. Yes wyckoff applies to all timeframes, including 5 min :)
Distribution After BounceHi all,
We are about to complete the distribution after bouncing from 55.600. This is the micro version of the bigger distribution i shared in my previous posts. Curently UTAD in the making. I expect a dump towards 58.300 where the stopping action will occur with a bounce followed by second dip at 57.900 (point of control) of distribution range.
Trade safe and use a stop loss.
Bitcoin - consolidation for this weekend (symmetrical triangle)Bitcoin - consolidation for this weekend (symmetrical triangle).
Bitcoin has dropped below the SOW level. According to the distribution scheme of the Wyckoff, we have the LPSY level. As the price usually consolidates on weekends, I predict a certain formation. Moreover, there is no recovery from the recent declines.
At 1h, you can also see that there is a divergence, which also indicates the need to rebound the declines.
BTC Warning !!!! Possible Wyckoff Distribution BTC is currently forming a Wyckoff distribution pattern similar to Jan 2021 - Aug 2021 (The blue shaded pattern is a copy of the previous pattern for comparison). Please be mindful the timeline not going to be accurate.
In another scenario, BTC will dump to 52-54k then pump as we expected. If BTC makes a HH and then HL, we should expect a massive dump where the accumulation will begin.
This is not financial advice, please DYOR, and I'm going to pray that I'm wrong and this doesn't happen
BITCOIN: The Worst Scenario!This presentation is for informational and educational purposes only; it should not be construed as investment advice of any kind.
According to the daily chart , BTC still fighting for the level of $60K which may lead to reach to $75K all time high (according to the calculation of the target point using P&G for the last accumulation); and we may see a distribution in the market after that..
It could rebound at the $50K level and the price return above $65K so this chart will be invalidated; or it continue down to the next support which can be considered as a value zone to start accumulating again.
Also, the fear and greed index shows greed in the market which indicates some major correction pending.
Remember: Market is still uptrend, so the scenario will be canceled if the price makes a move towards $85K and breakout!
This could be the worst possible scenario so the rest is all good :)
Bitcoin Black Friday Special Discount!Hi all,
Now that the distribution play has revealed itself, i'm looking for the mark down and completion of distribution following a reversal to the upside.
We had a similar but different distribution play last year early September and the pull back ended at Fib 0.5. If this profit taking and bonus collection of money managers repeat itself, we can expect a similar behaviour. A pull back of ~20%
That said, as much as i want to buy Bitcoin at 49k, the reversal of fib 0.5 is at 54.300 adjacent to previous markup range POC at 54.829. But the liquidation requires taking this level down and some more. At this point the previous top of last distribution perfectly matches a retest of this level at 52.666
This should happen within few days so a new accumulation range will be created which will magically complete by November 26th - The Black Friday.
This analog is from the previous disttribution and see how accumulation matches Black Friday. Amazing!
Let's see how it plays out!
Trade safe and use a stop loss!
66.666Devil has it's own signature :) And 66.666 came up couple of times during the last week. This time it matches the mid-line of the upward channel. Don't get me wrong, i didn't work around this number, it was just very close to the intersections.
So, my previous analysis is still in play and should this be a distribution, we will reverse at around 66.666 and complete the LPSY event with a reversal all the way down to the POC of the trading range at 61k where the most liquidity awaits and my long setup comes in to play.
The bounce will be very critical as it should be a weak one that will fail at 63.333 (look at these numbers, i'm not hand picking them) So the long setup i gave yesterday is quite a tricky one that you should know when to exit or not!
If 63k fails after the bounce and we loose the SOW at 57.820, the downside would be quite brutal, down to 57k first and 49-50k as the final target.
If 63k holds, then this could be the shakeout before the breakout!
So, the rest of November could be bloody as hell, where every bitcoiner meets the devil until the last stop gets hit.
This scenario invalidates if we get a daily close above the mid channel (thick blue line) and move above towards the ATH.
And then... 100k by new year / 144k early next year is still in play, just not in a straight line :)
PS. There are a couple of sell the news event for today, taproot activation and Biden's infrastructure bill signature are both long time waited events. I don't trade the news, but the price has almost reached the critical levels too.
So, don't long into the resistance!
As always trade safe and use stop loss.
Swing Long SetupHi all,
We are still in the upward channel and Bitcoin is entering the sideways trading range set by ST and AR.
In between the two, the strongest support is at 60.943 which is the POC of this trading range for about a month now.
The composite man will want to take down this support and liquidate longs before bouncing. That's where i'm planning to buy at 60.400. This way it won't take down the previous swing low at 60.050, so the market structure does not change. This will keep everyone bullish and create a front-run effect to feed FOMO who will be waiting at 60k to buy. Also it will coincide with NY opening on Monday!
Bounce rally will end up somewhere above the AR ~64k, so everone will think we are going to moon. This will be the final LPSY event of the distribution range before mark down!
If TOTT buys during this rally, then i will consider canceling the sell order and watch the target level for the swing failure before taking action.
If not, this is where i will be selling.
Downward target for this distribution range from pnf chart is between 50-57k, so i expect anything 57.xxx as the first conservative target to buy after this swing move.
So, that's my plan for now. Let's see how it unfolds.
Traget safe and use a stop loss.
URGENT! Limit Orders Cancelled, Here's Why!Hello, sleepless nights!
I was searching for distribution schematics and found this uncommon but perfectly matching distribution schematic.
Coupled with TOTT sell signal, i decided to cancel my limit orders and abide with TOTT, so i'm fully in cash.
Bad news is, if we take down SOW, it's game over. Right now, we are still in the channel and let's hope we don't go lower than 57.820. I remember noting this level as a SOW, now it makes more sense in a distributional context.
Right now we are getting rejected from the mid-line of this channel.
63.710 is the top of this trading range, so i expect it to be broken.
Point of control is at 61k. This is the strongest level to hold with a small violation of the channel. I wish it would hold, but that would be too easy to catch.
Bottom of the trading range is at 59.510
SOW is at 57.820
Last important level is 56.500, the infamous neck line that can put us in to coma. Loose this level and we can find ourselves at the vacinity of 50k.
Not loosing money is making money, so i'll just wait and watch closely.
The darkest hour, might be darker than you think :)))
But hey, what do i know!
Trade safe and use the f***ing stop loss!
ETH possible distribution?Hello my beauties.
Ethereum seems to have entered a range, and I'll be monitoring price action to see if the distribution Wyckoff schematics will provide us with the events that would confirm a short entry.
If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair.
Consider supporting me if you think I am providing you with value.
Peace.
Luca, TrickleDownFX
UPST-- Time to go shortUPST-- bearish territory started. Might go down in waves. But the descend is on. The wild ride or more than 1000% gains since the beginning of the year are about to end.
There will be a profit-taking cycle happening.
Few data points,
1) 9 EMA crossing below 23 EMA
2) Price is not able to break above the trendline from recent highs. Forming lower lows on daily
3) Price is not able to break above 9EMA recently on 4hr and daily
4) 333 is acting as resistance from the left shoulder of the H&S pattern.... and in the distribution phase, as per stock cycles
If you follow this chart, it is matching to the textbook representation of stock cycles. Will it go down before ER or after?
Note: ER is on Nov 9th. It is time to watch this one. What do you guys think?
Half way through a distribution on S&P500?Hello my beauties.
I think S&P500 has entered a phase of distribution, volatility has increased strongly and the price seems to be reacting to a newly formed range.
If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair.
Consider supporting me if you think I am providing you with value.
Peace.
Luca, TrickleDownFX
Oil 4hrs distribution schematics!Hello my beauties.
Usoil has created some clear distribution schematics targeting the low indicated by the red arrow based on an exact measurement of the volatility in the trading range in red.
If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair.
Consider supporting me if you think I am providing you with value.
Peace.
Luca, TrickleDownFX
Gold Possible Wyckoff Re-DistributionHi Traders,
Above I have done a video showing my thoughts around gold and a possible opportunity that lies within.
Please let me know your thoughts in the comment section below as well as check out further below for more details.
Have a great weekend.
TH from RT-Trading.
USOIL Distribution!Hello my beauties.
Here's an idea based on Wyckoff schematics about Crude Oil.
If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair.
Consider supporting me if you think I am providing you with value.
Peace.
Luca, TrickleDownFX
Amadeus IT Group S.A.(AMS.mc) bearish:The technical figure Pennant can be found in Spanish company Amadeus IT Group S.A. (AMS.mc) at daily chart. Amadeus IT Group, S.A. is a major Spanish IT provider for the global travel and tourism industry. The company is structured around two areas: its global distribution system and its Information Technology business. Amadeus provides search, pricing, booking, ticketing and other processing services in real-time to travel providers and travel agencies through its Amadeus CRS distribution business area. It also offers computer software that automates processes such as reservations, inventory management software and departure control systems. It services customers including airlines, hotels, tour operators, insurers, car rental and railway companies, ferry and cruise lines, travel agencies and individual travellers directly. The Pennant has broken through the support line on 21/10/2021, if the price holds below this level you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 8 days towards 51.72 EUR. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 61.00 EUR if you decide to enter this position.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Example of WTI Crude Oil 15 mins Wyckoff distribution!Hello my beauties.
For educational purposes, I wanted to publish yesterday's price action on USOIL, as a 15 mins Wyckoff distribution played out perfectly.
If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair.
Consider supporting me if you think I am providing you with value.
Peace.
Luca, TrickleDownFX