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Distribution

GBPUSD strong rally.. a correction? or a trend-reverse thingy?GBPUSD price retraced to the 0.618 - 0.786 area 📈after a Monday rally, almost reaching my POI at around 1.37600. The Stoch enters the oversold area on 30m and 1h. With a small re-accumulation 📊around 1.37000 the price broke that level and is currently heading higher. It can retrace back to around 1.36800 and head even higher to >>POI<< and 1.38000. I'll be looking closer for a distribution signs between 1.37400 and 1.38000, looking for some nice setups to SELL ⬇️up there. On the other side, if the price pushes down strongly below 1.36800, we can get action around 1.36600 later this week. So, a correction, or a change of trend? I'll keep an eye on GBPUSD this week. 👀
Short
by GibsonTrades
YM - Distribution Patterns creating Confusion and DelayUnmistakable Distro Pattern. Rotations are short lived. FED Purchasing Arms have reversal Fills on for decline while ATH after ATH is forced higher on decreasing Volumes. We have 35,912 to 36,737 as potential Highs for YM - Probability is Neutral for now, the overthrow would not hold and requires a quick and dirty move higher. The throw overs are common at levels, see December to February 2020. Precisely the same pattern of Distribution. Every throw over is a SELL imho. Consumers are pulling back on Spending as Prices continue to elevate. Supply chain reductions are assured as Global Production is in decline. Confusion and Delay is ALL that is in trade until the Reversal begins. Dumping your purse into Longs is an epic mistake. Monthly breakaway Gap @ 28,200 will be filled into October/November, prior to new ATHs. The lows provide a fair probability of holding, only to reverse and move quickly to new all time highs into 2022. The FED will permit a fair amount of selling pressure to reduce the need to taper, IF they were to actually taper Bond Purchases, it will not last for more than a few months. MBS provide a very telling statement of material FACT. FED Purchasing $40B we know of in MBS isn't signs of a healthy Housing Market, instead it suggests underneath the Headline Numbers, many of these products are failing. It is reminiscent of 2004. Distribution began in JUNE of 2021... lots of Overpriced Zombie JUNK propped up with share buybacks and Easy Cheesy Gamma Squeezy to unload.
UShort
by HK_L61
NZD/USD SEEMS TO BE IN A DISTRIBUTION PHASE !! #BECAUTIOUS NZD/USD is possibly in a Distribution Phase after a long Bull-Run. The time to SHORT/SELL a pair can be NEARBY. Short/Sell NZD/USD is recommended once the Range Breaks Downwards. A safe SHORT ZONE could be 0.68550 Possible Targets could be 0.67130 and 0.64700. Stop Loss is not given yet because the Price is Still In Range and TRADE IS NOT INTACT YET. Note: This post is purely for education purpose only. Please do your own analysis before any trade. REASONS FOR DISTRUBITION PHASE ARE AS FOLLOWING; - No New Higher High has been formed since February 2021 - The Pair has been in a Bull-Run for more than a year - Strong Trend Resistance is near by and it is Intact - Descending Trendline shows that Bears are in Power - Prices have been under 200 DMA for a while now
Short
by M_Shariq
Possible Distribution At The Top!Although i don't trust intraday charts, It's hard to ignore the markup that has occured in the last week and how it recalls the begining of a distribution schematic, on the 6 hour chart. The volume peak on July 26th marks the preliminary supply (PSY) moving to the overbought region of the uptrend channel. Followed by the buying climax and an automatic rally to take us over the secondary test. Now pulling back to a sign of weekness (SOW) area. So far, fits perfectly. That said, the upthrust (UT) and upthrust after distribution (UTAD) is to be expected. Although we cannot be sure at which price level they will reach. Eventually distribution will end with show of second weakness, below the first one and the markup will follow the last point of supply (LPSY) Risk management becomes very important here. As you know i'm planning to buy over 41.330 and if the UTAD in this distribution breaches my target, i wouldn't want to be caught with 100% of my portfolio. If we reach this target, i'll only invest 15% maybe less, so the rest could be used to dollar cost average my entry point and exit with profit in case of a markdown.
by BitcoinMillio18
38
Bitcoin 67k or 8k First?Here's the P&F chart update for Bitcoin after the Amazon FUD. We have a reversal bar to the downside which is bearish, but in order not to become overly bearish, i'm also counting for a possible reversal to the upside for the next column. Ofcourse we should expect a reaction in these reversal bars. In fact the current reversal could be the reaction itself. 30k is the double bottom and 40k is the double top. Crossing these levels could take us further as explained on the chart. I tokk only the last segment of consolidation as they are the first targets. We are still in the sideways trading range and we could break out both ways. There are signs of strength and accumulation, but volume is not supporting this. I'm in short strategy, but i'm posting this as neutral so people don't take action within this trading range by looking at my analysis idea. Be safe.
by BitcoinMillio18
20
Crypto Markets In Trouble : Potential Wyckoff Warning SignWhat is TOTAL2? The TOTAL2 Shows us the Total Market Capitilisation of Cryptocurrencies (TOTAL MARKET VALUE) the amount of money in crypto excluding Bitcoin basically. Investing and trading based on price alone is like seeing the tip of an iceberg in the vast ocean, analyzing the Market Cap of cryptocurrencies is a great way to gauge the strength of Altcoins and the Market in general. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Potential Wyckoff Distribution: Trading ranges ( TRs ) are places where the previous trend (up or down) has been halted and there is relative equilibrium between supply and demand . Institutions and other large professional interests prepare for their next bull (or bear) campaign as they accumulate (or distribute) shares within the TR . In both accumulation and distribution TRs , the Composite Man is actively buying and selling - the difference being that, in accumulation, the shares purchased outnumber those sold while, in distribution, the opposite is true. The extent of accumulation or distribution determines the cause that unfolds in the subsequent move out of the TR ." See the Wyckoff Distribution Schematic here for comparison: www.wyckoffanalytics.com --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thoughts: In this particular trading range we can see that the SUPPLY clearly outweighs the demand, with the equilibrium now falling below the initial formation of the trading range you can see on the left. Unless this gets back above 850 billion or so with the creation of a Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern (marked with yellow trendline) we are entering another potential mark down phase for Cryptocurrencies. Click this image to learn about Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern: --------------------------------------------------------------------------- See my Bitcoin Distribution idea here for comparison: (Click and hit PRESS PLAY) Note the clear LPSY Last Point of Supply where BTC rallied with low volume and failed to get back inside the Trading Range. It is one of the key characteristics of DISTRIBUTION patterns.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Short
by Worth_The_Ri5k
7
ADA is cooling off. Hello everyone, due the high amount of request regarding ADA here is a new post. Let's analyse it together. As we can see ADA is making lower highs, this is a sign of weakness. We are still in the supply zone, here is where the pros distribute (sell) their stock to the new traders. More commonly known as distribution phase. We found a level of support at 1.14ish, this support is not going to hold, its only purpose is to allow the distribution phase to function. We need to wait for ADA to drop down to our trend lines are, it may even drop to where our lines cross. Do not buy ADA now! I am going to repeat myself, DO NOT buy ADA now. This is a distribution phase, whoever is pushing you to buy ADA do not listen to him. We need to wait, wait for the market to come to you, do not chase the market.
by michael772
9
Nasdaq Setting up for Rounded top Been posting bearish charts for awhile and scaling out of the market. Very hard to fully bet against the Fed but it's to risky to not be hedged right now. Bounced off support today but I think we will visit the bottom of the rising channel - could revisit the February 2020 highs. Market is setup for a perfect top: -Debt ceiling + Delta variant concerns -Parabolic for the past year -Covid got new traders to enter the market (provide liquidity for Wallstreet to sell) -Insiders selling -Advance decline (markets being held up by big companies while majority bleed) -High price to earnings valuations. Top it off, there is a rounding top pattern in the works. I am no expect in distribution, but I am concerned at the number of people who started investing in the past year with no knowledge.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by richardthick
XAU Shift before bullish takeoffXAU has managed to break the two-week range between 1797.00 Upper bands and 1750.00 lower bands. This consolidation comes as normality after extending a steep decline right off the 1900.00 zones as accumulation now shapes into form. A projected re-test of the established mid-range sees a short entry opportunity toward 1775.00. This establishes a confluence setup as price may bounce off the 1775.00 weekly reactive zones further continuing the bullish push toward 2104.00 later this year.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by HuracanFX
Price Action Similarities between the NASDAQ and BitcoinThere is a lot on the main chart but lets go through it directly: Both had a parabolic run up and Over 80% corrections Both Created a W pattern with a higher low around the 0.236 retracement level from the height to initial low BTC intermediate high stalled at the 0.786 while NDX intermediate high was around the lower 0.500 (not shown on chart). Consequentially NDX did not show the same bullishness and perhaps that is why the subsequent uptrend was not as impulsive Both Stalled briefly at the previous high (the 1 level) BTC had a very neat consolidation at the 1.271 and 1.414 levels level while NDX showed a lot of chop BTC entered a clear distribution at the 1.618 Level Forecasting The primary supposition based on this chart is that NDX will enter a technical distribution pattern as BTC did and this process can take a long time. Below is a scenario that I could see replay. Previous resistance gets turned into support and then sets up the trendline of the bull trap. You can see this al over the place when parabolic moves end and there is a fair chance we will see it again. The time measurement on the chart shows from the time the price broke free of resistance until the bull trap was in. We may run into a lot of the same narratives with NDX as we did with BTC. People expecting a blw off top like the 00 bubble pop. Or "Printer go brrrrrr" type analysis. Side Rant It is sadly impressive how people can develop for themselves a system to determine their bias in trading whether to go long or short on a time frame but still get completely torn up and don't get the message. Below is a very important chart for NDX and if you follow me even somewhat closely the system should be recognizable. There is the VSTOP, the VSTOP X3 timeframe, the 20W and the MACD. When the VSTOP, MTF VSTOP and 20M are all below price action it is a clear sign that the macro trend is bullish. You should be taking longs and taking profits. To be honest I took some calls on SQQQ that paid well and some that did not during the last couple of months and it really wasn't worth the stress so I stopped. To continue that point I have seen lots of crypto traders on Youtube or Trading view that had systems that the have appeared to abandon. They were going to be bearish if BTC slipped the 21 EMA or the 20w SMA.... And now they are bullish again somehow despite price action still being below the moving average. Traders that clearly saw the 2018 descending triangle cannot see the head and shoulders. People that used MA cross overs to determine bias have abandoned that, people that use the cloud have abandoned that because they are stuck on a bullish bias even after their systems tell them not to. Same with cloud traders. The cloud for bitcoin is flipped bearish on the daily or three daily and these traders are looking to go long on the 4h chart. Madness. Back to the analysis Since NDX is at a major target level this could be where a trader or investor decides to rotate some of their portfolio out of growth stocks. Into what I recommend anything as I am not a financial advisor. In this system you would not contemplate going short without a clear distribution pattern on the weekly timeframe that could take months or until the VSTOP flipped and then you would short into strength. Once the MACD crosses and price is below all the indicators it is a full multi-year bear market. If (and that is still a big if) we do flip the monthly to a bearish bias the target for the next major consolidation is the 200 month EMA/SMA. Conclusion It is a "big if" if I am correct in several ways. It may take a month or so for this to get shorted out and lots of people may get surprised by an upward trust after distribution. I can see a lot of people getting torn up because they take shorts too soon, or get timed out of their option calls. Relief rallies can blow a bunch of shorter out of the water.
TVC:NDQShort
by This_Guhy
7
Wyckoff Distribution PhasesDisclaimer: This is a personal observation, I don't intend to claim this facts as the absolute truth of the events that are happening in the market. As we can observe, the Wyckoff Distribution Model suggests that BINANCE:ADAUSDT is standing on the Last Point of Support and (supposedly) should bounce back looking forward to get back on track with the B ull market . It will take a while for the price to show this sentiment, but if this continues, we would definitely see Cardano getting back on the $1.40 level. Trade safe. Cheers.
by patofunes