PALLADIUM distribution schematics!Hello my beauties.
I believe Palladium is going to test the bottom of the range, come back up, and give us a nice markdown. This is a rough idea of what the price action will look like, in my opinion. My analysis is fully based on wyckoff distribution schematics.
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Peace.
Luca, TrickleDownFX
Distribution
IS TESLA DISTRIBUTING? OR REACCUMULATING?Hello my beauties.
I think TSLA is going through an interesting phase. It broke the trendline that led it to its all time high, and the sellers came in strong, stunning it sideways. For us to fully understand what is happening, we'll need to wait for some more price action.
However, the following scenarios are possible, in my opinion:
1) TSLA will give us a nice UT (upthrust) off the higher end of the trading range, and we'll know that a distribution is happening, with the subsequent downtrend that will result from it;
2) TSLA will spring out off the lower end of the TR (trading range) and give us a nice uptrend continuation.
The bias for now is neutral, as we wait for price action to give us further indications. It is something that I'll be keeping an eye on.
If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair.
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Peace.
Luca, TrickleDownFX
Short Term Play 1 - XTZBTC Dear traders,
Intro: My name is Hugo, I am 24 years old and trading crypto currencies since late 2017. English is not my main language, however, I will try to explain everything brief and clear. Be aware that I am still in the learning curve. Every idea I post is not financial advice and is only meant for entertainment purposes only.
Welcome to my new Short Term Play series.
XTZ/BTC clearly shows a path of accumulation (people buying the coin) and distribution (people selling the coin/distributing profits to other coins).
Every accumulation period has a fake-out before acceleration to the upside as depicted on the chart with white circles.
Target is in the chart.
Goodluck,
Doctor Hugo
BTCUSD contraction of volatilityFellow traders,
Contraction of volatility, BBands squeeze on 2day chart indicates that a large move is inevitable. Confirmation 6day chart on the right side of the screen shows bearish momentum. It looks like soon we’ll see BTC at 40k, or lower. The upcoming golden cross may be a fake out. All this will be invalidated if price action manages to stay where it is now, thus hanging on the 50SMA.
On short term time frames 8H, 6H, 4H BTC is in a down trend. 12H TF looks like it wants to jump down to its 200SMA around 40k.
It looks to me like the best course of action is to keep our powder dry and wait for a clear signal that will indicate direction of the coming move. One thing’s for sure though, something’s brewing up :))
Please, share your thoughts on this analysis.
USING GOLD TO EXPLAIN WYCKOFF DISTRIBUTION SCHEMATICS!Hello my beauties. I see very little content on the platform regarding Wyckoff, and I really believe it is a must to understand what is happening from an emotionally and mentally detached perspective on the markets. Wyckoff analysis provides you with an opportunity to do just that. I will walk you through the events and what they mean for the market, and hopefully I'll be clear enough to provide you with the reasons that compel me to take my trades. Enjoy!
Here are the distribution schematics for you to use as reference:
www.google.com
1) Point of Supply (PSY): the price hesitates around the area where the support of the trading range will form; this represents a warning that the mood is changing that retail investors normally fail to notice;
2) Buying Climax (BC): big investors start releasing their shares as they are satisfied with the price target they have achieved;
3) Automatic Reaction (AR): retail investors believe that the instrument is retracing, and do not pick up on the mood shift in the price action. They enter and buy aggressively, perceiving value and expecting a trend continuation. Big investors use their longs to open short positions at advantageous prices*;
4)Second Test (ST): the second test is a test of demand. In the case of a distribution, it normally fails to generate a new high, which is a massive red flag. Retail investors usually fail to notice this warning sign, and keep on buying themselves in;
5) SOW: the price starts showing some weakness. This allows smart money to trap sellers that think the price is switching to a bearish trend ;
6) Upthrust (UT): this event allows smart money to both stop out sellers that entered the market in the previous case, and trap buyers that believe in a trend continuation. Needless to say, that's not the case.
7)Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD): the price moves higher and traps even more buyers. At this point there are multiple tests of the so called ''path of least resistance''. Big investors are adding to their positions as retail traders keep on expecting strength. By this time the faith of the price has long been decided.
8) Last Point of Supply (LPSY): the market hesitates, showing extreme difficulty pushing towards the upside. One of the last chances to enter a short position.
9) Sign Of Weakness (SOW): the price starts melting down, as the ''path of least resistance'' is now cleared by all the stop losses triggered by the sudden shift in market mood after the UTAD.
10) Last Point of Supply (LPSY): very last attempt from the buyers to hold the price up.
11) Markdown: all clear, the move begins! The price swiftly moves below the TR (trading range) and dumps towards the final target.
I hope this information helps you navigate the market and profit from them. I will be periodically publishing explanations of the Wyckoff method.
If you find this content to be valuable, like, follow, comment below.
Thank you very much for reading, and good luck.
Luca, TrickleDown FX
* on the market, for big investors to open new positions, there needs to be an availability of positions that is normally generated through manipulation. The manipulation is only necessary because there simply isn't enough liquidity for smart money to enter the market. So the only way they can open new positions is by selling into the retail longs, or vice versa. This provides them with a number of shares that would satisfy the huge sums of money hedge funds normally manage.
Apple Shares will Collapse this Year (I am buying this option)I hate stocks alright. I am also not a fan of apple. But I figured I'd turn the old money printer back on and buy a put option on apple for Nov 19 @ 135. Far out of the money, but it fits my risk tolerance and gives apple time to fall. Not financial advice, just saw an opportunity for myself and perhaps you guys too. My put is already up 60%, I'm holding till I feel apple has fallen enough, but take profits when you want. I am expecting apple shares to fall below 135 as
a major selloff occurs in the stock market. It may be this year, maybe next, but it will happen. Apple shares are in a bearish pattern (distribution), and also has bad press as privacy concerns arise.
BTC to head back down to 20-24K With the huge dump on "Bitcoin Day", it appears to be completing a very similar DISTRIBUTION pattern that we experienced during the last bull run (albeit on a smaller scale).
I predict it will climb back up over the next few days and complete a LOWER HIGH around the 50k mark (plus or minus 1k). Then bounce off the FIB lines as we head on down to December 2020 Support
The bounce up may present opportunities to reevaluate your risk levels for a Bullish break or confirmation of the DISTRIBUTION pattern.
<TradeVSA> SGX - Clear Sign of Distribution with Red PentagonSign of Weakness in the chart:
1. Red Pentagon high volume
2. Price drop 20/40ma with high volume
3. No demand
4. No reversal with Sign of Strength
Disclaimer
This information only serves as reference information and does not constitute a buy or sell call. Conduct your own research and assessment before deciding to buy or sell any stock
BTC price reversal: comparisonThis could be nothing. Perhaps too simplistic, but the recent rally ending in May looks eerily similar to this recent run. Comparing 1D between FEB and MAY with 12h between July and now. No Elliot/Wyckoff stuff here, simply annotating the tops for comparison. Apart from the price forming a very similar pattern, notice how the volume on both is decreasing and how similarly RSI is printed below their respective waves on both timeframes.
I'd be looking for one or all of these to happen on the 12h in the next days/weeks:
RSI crashing below 50
Break in market structure - forming a lower low
RSI failing to break back above 50 - failing to re-establish the uptrend
Forming a lower high (D) (ideally after LL is formed)
If this would play out, it would support my previously shared long-term view on the weekly.
Look Familiar? Just seeing a very similar 'distribution' pattern taking shape on a smaller scale.
Thoughts?
GBPUSD strong rally.. a correction? or a trend-reverse thingy?GBPUSD price retraced to the 0.618 - 0.786 area 📈after a Monday rally, almost reaching my POI at around 1.37600. The Stoch enters the oversold area on 30m and 1h.
With a small re-accumulation 📊around 1.37000 the price broke that level and is currently heading higher. It can retrace back to around 1.36800 and head even higher to >>POI<< and 1.38000.
I'll be looking closer for a distribution signs between 1.37400 and 1.38000, looking for some nice setups to SELL ⬇️up there.
On the other side, if the price pushes down strongly below 1.36800, we can get action around 1.36600 later this week.
So, a correction, or a change of trend? I'll keep an eye on GBPUSD this week. 👀
YM - Distribution Patterns creating Confusion and DelayUnmistakable Distro Pattern.
Rotations are short lived.
FED Purchasing Arms have reversal Fills on for decline while ATH after ATH
is forced higher on decreasing Volumes.
We have 35,912 to 36,737 as potential Highs for YM - Probability is Neutral
for now, the overthrow would not hold and requires a quick and dirty move
higher.
The throw overs are common at levels, see December to February 2020.
Precisely the same pattern of Distribution.
Every throw over is a SELL imho.
Consumers are pulling back on Spending as Prices continue to elevate.
Supply chain reductions are assured as Global Production is in decline.
Confusion and Delay is ALL that is in trade until the Reversal begins.
Dumping your purse into Longs is an epic mistake.
Monthly breakaway Gap @ 28,200 will be filled into October/November,
prior to new ATHs.
The lows provide a fair probability of holding, only to reverse and move
quickly to new all time highs into 2022.
The FED will permit a fair amount of selling pressure to reduce the need
to taper, IF they were to actually taper Bond Purchases, it will not last
for more than a few months.
MBS provide a very telling statement of material FACT.
FED Purchasing $40B we know of in MBS isn't signs of a healthy Housing Market,
instead it suggests underneath the Headline Numbers, many of these products
are failing.
It is reminiscent of 2004.
Distribution began in JUNE of 2021... lots of Overpriced Zombie JUNK propped
up with share buybacks and Easy Cheesy Gamma Squeezy to unload.
Rising Pinch & Falling Wedge and Distribution/Accumulation Rising (pinch) & Falling Wedge and Distribution/Accumulation
Possible BULLISH run on EURJPYWe did break structure on the zone 130.570 that took liquidity ,of the last Higher Low , and now price is looking to tap on my POI . I'm looking for a small accumulation on lower TF inside my POI for a bullish rally to snatch liquidity from the HL's mark with red points.