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Distribution

Quickpost: Low Time Frame Wycoff DistributionTop chart is the 15 minute chart and shows the key components to distribution. As of right now there has not been a key return to the ice. This is also some what provisional as usually they are way more Signs of Weakness in the move so this would be less reliable than the topping formation BTC saw at 60K The 4 hour chart shows that this trend line has been flipping support and resistance for a while now so the move would be big either side. My bias remains to the downside. Happy 4th of July
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
3
Are We Going To $80k?Here's the deal, As being one of the first trades to point out Accumulation, i've been at both sides of the story. Price being right at the middle of the trading range, it's time to evaluate current situation from both angles. 1- We are in Accumulation. The spring action is being tested and breaking 37k would validate it along with higher highs and lower lows. In Wyckoff analysis, horizontal column counts are used to calculate potential. Right now we have 17 columns (17x3x1000=51.000) and this fuel is enough to take us to 80-84k area. Wait, but aren't we going to 100k? Well that's the psychological target, but the current state of our data says we have enough fuel for 80-84k. The good news is that the more we go sideways the higher we go. 2- We are in Redistribution The poor rally and break of the uptrend are weaknesses that can validate a redistribution. However, the 17 column count far exceeds the current price level, which i mentioned in my previous analysis. We simply can't fall below zero :) So, in an effort to make this work, i've segmented the structure in to two at the second highest volume drop. That is the last 5 columns and that equals to a 15k drop, taking us to $20k as widely rumored. Calculate Your Risk If we want to open a long position today with a traget of $80k and a stop loss level at $18k, our risk to reward ratio will be 2.76 - at the worst case (if we are not going to $10k). This means If you invest $100 today, you'll have $376 when the price target is reached. Not bad. However, if the shakeout happens, the worst case we can see is 18k, meaning a ~50% drop. Will you be able to handle that stress without selling? TBH I don't know the answer, but the reward is still 2.76x if you stand strong. With proper risk management and position sizing i believe this risk can be mitigated. Final thoughts I see 2 possible scenarios now: 1- A rally towards 80k followed by a small re-accumulation, taking us above $100k 2- A break down to 20k followed by 7-8 weeks accumulation, following a rally towards 80k, followed by small re-accumulation towards $100k. I'm really neutral here, but looks like $80k will be an important level. What's your take? Go long now, or wait for 20k?
by BitcoinMillio18
70
#Bitcoin Road To $100K - Wyckoff Accumulation UpdatedI've digged deeper in to details and updated the accumulation phase we are entering. While the length of each phase can differ, this is pretty much what it will look like to reach $100k. So, sideways accumulation looks like it will continue in trading range until October, while institutions accumulate, following a rally / markup to $80k and the distribution will begin, topping at 102k by the end of January and then the cycle will repeat. Forever. Laura. :)))
Short
by BitcoinMillio18
108
Gold Analysis - WyckoffHi Traders/Gamblers, This is by far my most intricate and detailed analysis of Gold following a distribution that took place a few months ago, as shown. We have hit our target area for gold as shown and stipulated. Following the DXY's downward it has since settled and seems to be consolidating giving signals of a reversal with a H&S as well as distribution taking place. This then means that gold is currently experiencing the opposite as it heavily relies on the USD to determine price action - DXY effects gold at around 2 - 6 times the movement (1% movement on DXY makes 2% - 6% on Gold, depending on sentiments and trend). Gold could be potentially distributing here as it has reached accumulation cause and effect, or Stage 1. We now wait for the other stages to be completed to fully confirm a downtrend which would see significant downward movement - possible into the 17xx or 16xx. This however could also be a re-accumulation into a further upward trend, giving us 2xxx, it is important to note that we could still see 1960 as a point of UT or UTAD before going down. RSI has broken upward trend and is currently bottomed out on Daily chart showing that we could range for a little more, however MACD is topped out and has crossed over signalling a reversing trend in the near future. Volume is decreasing, creating a base, showing an exhaustion of demand and buyers and the possibility for sellers and supply to take over. With CPI being released tomorrow at 1:30pm (UCT) this will be a good indication of where the market will stray, we are hoping for a lower low giving us SOW and then retracing back up to give us a last point of supply before heading down. Once we have received the SOW and the LPS we will then be able to use the point and figure chart to determine a target objective based off of cause and effect. It has been said that Russia are wanting to dump the dollar and invest in euro and gold which could possibly mean that Russia will sell off their gold positions and look to add more at a cheaper rate of gold - emphasising again the significant downtrend we could see along with a big spike back up once target is reached. To read up on the Wyckoff method and the phases, stages as well as buying or selling signals read here: school.stockcharts.com Good luck. **This is not financial advice** Chart is made shareable by clicking this link: uk.tradingview.com
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Username_for_trading
4