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BTCUSD: Possible move into a long distribution phase from hereHi everyone! First of all have a happy new year - stay healthy and well :-) When analyzing BTCUSD I have noticed a resemblance between what is happening right now (months of Dec2020 and Jan2021) and December2017/January2018. BTC made similar gains, as it did in that year of 2017/2018, recovering from a previous low back to the ATH (approx. 60%), before rallying to 20000USD (140%), followed by a long phase of distribution and panick selling. This time BTCUSD recovered back to the ATH of 20000 (approx. 60%) and then reached new highs of 42000 (approx. 107%). Back in 2017/2018 the bull run held for about four weeks - we are also now in week four. What COULD follow is a strong phase of distribution (profit taking), followed by people panicking. Yes, now "it's different" I hear many people saying and truth is, it could be. But also keep in mind that back then, when BTC reached 20000 USD, many claimed it will go even higher and higher. People took their savings and even some took loans and put it into BTC as they saw it plummeting and then sold out of desperation. What I am saying: Please be very careful with trading BTC. Those who claim that it will go to 200.000 by the end of the year, are those who are holding BTC and want to catalyze. A major difference that we can observe with this phase is that we have some big companies involved (Grayscale, Microstrategy etc.) holding millions of USD in BTC. Many see this as positive sign for the BTC prive development, but there is also a major risk: With Grayscale holding 3% of the circulating BTC we have a whale that can dump a huge amount at any time for profit taking and then rebuy at a cheaper level when individuals panick sell. In conclusion: Watch the price carefully, it's better to use dollar-cost-averaging, since the bull run MIGHT be over (possibility, but not 100& outcome). Use stop-loss and do your own research. I am no financial advisor and this is no financial advice! Many thanks to c0tt0nc4ndyTA and Wyckoffmode - so far I have learned a lot from the both of you and still learning!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by RedFoxTrading
4
BTCUSD Secondary test completeHello traders! In my last post as I told you I am expecting Wyckoff's distribution pattern so when the market reached BC(buying Climax) it was a clear sell because the market dropped after making M reversal pattern, according to Wyckoff's theory that was the Automatic Reaction AR after that market formed bullish engulfing at 16500 and the engulfing pattern is best for this type of scenarios. Buy target is hit now and now expect a drop that will break the previous low. Hit the like button if you successfully traded both waves.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Aadil1000x
9
All hail Gold Digger. Spread and DistributeGOLD has seems to be at its distribution area. Based on TP calculated using Law of Cause & Effect PnF chart, conservative target can be considered reached at USD2100 area (2077 to be exact). Here's how I deduced TP reached: 6 years of accumulation (2013-2019) at USD1180-1400/oz shows a classic schematic of wyckoff accumulation phase. On PnF chart, using box size of USD5 and reversal amount of 3, I got a total of about 154 accumulation columns. With this information, I can get the approximation amount to be marked up = 154*5*3 = USD924. From the chart, we can see a complete 5 Elliot Waves and its ABC correction waves. Although it might be true that Gold is currently at distribution phase, it doesn't mean that Gold price is set to make a cliff diving. Distribution phase might take up months to years, as seen from historical data in 2012, it took 1 year of distribution before mark down. Possible distribution range might be around USD 1800-2000/oz IMHO, I think it is not a good time to start buying gold now for a long term investment. However, for a short term play around USD 1800-2000, one can consider and find a good entry point around the neckline of this distribution area.
TVC:GOLD
by tradebrewer
The acquisition or gradual gathering of something Hello everyone ! I wish you all nice day my dear followers, friends, newcomers and randoom net troll visitors. Lets focus closer on The accumulation of wealth today at this chart Accumulation function, a mathematical function defined in terms of the ratio future value to present value it is literally the process of gradually increasing in amount, or the increased amount -------------------------- Accumulation -------------------------- When price declined deep enough, at some point, you (as Smart Money) make the decision to buy. You may have various reasons for that: you may see that stocks are heavily under-priced or you analysis shows that the market is ready for a new uptrend and if you do not start it then someone else may do it. It does not matter what your motivations are, you want to buy as much as possible at lowest possible price. When you are Smart Money, you cannot jump into the market and buy all you need at once. In order to accumulate the shares at lowest possible price your buying activity should be spread in time. You have to plan your buying. You would have to follow a specific strategy: 1) When price drops below your critical level you start buying. 2) You continue to increase buying until you see you absorb all available supply and reversed a price trend. By its nature panic selling is stronger than greedy buying. That is why you need to put more buying pressure to stop a down-trend. That is why a volume surge at the end of a down-trend is much stronger than a volume surge at the end of an up-trend. That is why Accumulation goes faster when compared to distribution. 3) When price trend is reversed and reaches your critical level below which you are buying, if you did not bought all you wanted, you stop buying - you remove demand. If price does not start to slide down you may sell some of what you bought to generate bearish sentiment and make an illusion of bounce and not a reversal. Since you were the main buyer, you will not need to put a lot of selling pressure to resume a down-trend. 4) As price starts to decline again, you start buying again until you absorb all supply and accumulate (buy) all you wanted to buy. That is why we see double bottoms, reversed head and shoulders and etc. 5) You may repeat 1-4 steps again when you see that you may easily create a bearish sentiment (you do not have to sell a lot to resume down-trend). You do it until you accumulate all you want. 6) When you dry out all Supply, there is no need in a strong Demand to push price higher. Small increase in Demand can make a case. At first, stop-losses of bearish traders are triggered. Then, as price advances, the rest of the market starts to jump in. From that moment, you may sit and watch as other traders' bullish pressure pushes the price up. The market not always follows a specific scenario and Accumulation phase does not always follows the same pattern. Still, by analyzing volume and price action you may reveal the activity of the Smart Money. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------- Distribution -------------------------- At some point, you as a Smart Money have to dump your investments. It does not matter what your motives are - you made decision to relocate your investments into different place, you made extensive analysis and you know there are a lot of external factors which would support a down-trend, you see market bubble which may burst any time, you see that the market is heavily overpriced or you simply see that the market cannot push itself higher (demand is drying out). It doe not matter why you want it. You are "Smart Money" and you want to sell. You have to distribute your holdings. However, you know that when you start dumping all your investments at once, the quantity of supply you will through into the market will crash the price. You do not want it - you want to distribute your investments at the highest possible price. You have to plan your actions to dump your investments in a smart way at the highest possible price without crashing the price down: 1) When price moves up to some specific level defined by you as satisfactory level, you may start selling. You start selling in big quantities until you see that you are absorbing all Demand (buying pressure) and price up-trend starts to halt. 2) If there were a lot of unsatisfied demand (a lot of Bullish traders) you will be able to sell more - we will see increase in volume to the price up-move and then price advance will halt. When there are not a lot of Bullish traders, you will stop price advance without causing an increase in volume. 3) When you see that price up-move halted you halt your selling - we will see a drop in volume. 4) If price starts to move down and you still have a lot of shares to dump, you stop selling as you do not want price do decline deep down - you want to sell at the top. 5) If price continues to decline without you that mean you created bearish sentiment. In this case, you do not mind to buy a little bit to change the sentiment and to push price up again. 6) When price starts to move up you start to sell again by dumping the rest of your investments. 7) You repeat the 1-6 steps above until you sell all your holdings you wanted to dump. You managing bullish and bearish pressure you manipulate price to move in a side-way narrow range corridor. 8) When you about to distribute all your holdings, you do not halt your selling when price declines below your satisfactory level. You continue to push price lower - you need to create bearish sentiment on the market, so, the market will continue decline down without your involvement. 9) Each time when you sell and push price down, you may run into new waves of Bullish traders who has their own reasons to start buying. These bullish traders could be strong and they may reverse a price trend up strongly. However, since you are the Smart Money and you have unlimited access to money - you are stronger and you are dedicated to push price down. As these new Bulls push price up close to your critical threshold, you start selling (if you are out of your holdings you sell short). You do it each time it occurs until you break the spirit of these waves of new Bullish traders. That is why we may see an increase in volatility at the end of side-way trading right before a bearish trend. That is why we see price bouncing from the resistance levels. By Richard Wyckoff words, you have to shake spring board until you shake off all the Bullish traders. When you shake off all the Bulls, these Bulls will turn into the Bears - their stop-losses will start triggering and they will start selling. 10) From that moment, you may just sit and watch the decline - you Distributed all your investments at the Top and you started a bearish trend. But remember ! This is how you would have to act if you would be the "Smart Money" dedicated to distribute all your investments and reverse a price trend down. Of course, the Distribution phase, does not follow the exact scenario described above all the time. In some cases we have prolonged in time side-way trading and in some cases we have Climax Run up and strong reversal down. However, in all cases we can track the actions of Smart volume by analyzing volume activity together with price movements. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you want to know what Smart Money are doing, you have to think as Smart Money. You may see when Smart Money start their buying (Accumulation) - it starts while price still declines. Also, you may see when they start their selling (Distribution) - aging, it starts while price still moves up. By analyzing volume and price action you could obtain the knowledge about trend-reversal before it actually occurs. This is unnatural to think that the first signs of weakness occur on price up move and the first signs of strength occur on price decline. However, this is one of the main concepts of Volume Spread Analysis. When you are can see the beginning of an Accumulation or the beginning of a Distribution, you can spot when "Smart Money" start their trading activity. From that point, if you define the sentiment of "Smart Money", you will know where to place your bet. Accumulation/Distribution scheme chart applied on BINANCE:XLMBTC link on chart HERE The acquisition or gradual gathering of something part 2. here Please leave a like if you want to support my work and do not hesitate to let me know down in the comments how do you like the graphics and the style of TA at all. Do you want more of these ? Let me know and support me Every feedback and like is highly appriciated. ChaChain ------------- Disclaimer: I´m not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature, and therefore I´m unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
by Anoinvest
25
PolkaschrottDOT has been in distribution for months (basically after listing lel) and is very likely to break bottom support line which will probably take it back to its binance listing price. Currently I think it is probable to break down the channel due to further bearish price action on smaller time frames. Many other alts like EOS LTC DASH IOTA showing similar bearish continuation or distribution structures. My asssumption is that BTC is going to be kept afloat due to BTC flowing out of altcoins and would be slowly melting up through current weekly resistance at 14k. Alts will crash -40% at least during november and would find their bottoms at beginning/mid of december. Just my current crypto market view. Cheers, Barren
Short
by BarrenWaffe
2