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Distribution

Bitcoin tests December log line as supportGood morning, traders. It's Monday and time to get the trading week underway. As pointed out during Friday's daily live stream (where we always go into greater depth concerning price action), Bitcoin appears to be following April's pattern. The same can be said with the shorts/longs ratio. While there are no guarantees, it does give traders something to watch as price develops. In accordance with this pattern, we saw some liquidation of over-leveraged, under-capitalized shorts during the weekend as I continued to warn about last week. This has seen that ratio drop from a high of 1.0348 to 0.8785. If the pattern continues, then we should expect to see a further drop in the ratio before another move above 1:1. Remember, patterns do not follow exactly (it could move slower or faster), however, and it is only worth watching until it isn't anymore. What I mean is that the pattern does not have to complete, so it would be risky to base a trading strategy fully on the possible pattern. We have continued to see the same types of longs and shorts liquidated throughout the weekend and into this morning. Retail traders continue to gamble rather than accumulate wealth. The daily chart shows price moving up steadily from the test as support of the descending resistance line that began at the all time high. RSI says that we need to see price breach the August 8th high of $6628 or we may see bearish divergence develop. That being said, we are also seeing possible hidden bullish divergence building on the MACD between July 14th and today. A push upward in price should complete this divergence which would then likely see price targeting the $7200 area, at least, and maybe even the top of the descending broadening wedge that has been in play since February. On a smaller scale, we can see price tapping the top of the descending broadening wedge denoted by the dotted lines as it attempts to push out of the descending wedge denoted by the solid green lines. It is also important to note that price is finding resistance at the horizontal blue line which is the April 1st low. The 30 minute chart shows price working its way toward the top of the red descending broadening wedge while printing a possible ascending wedge. Currently, price is finding resistance at the pivot and black dashed horizontal line which we've had for a while now. We really need to see price breach $6630 to signal likely advancement into the $6800 box. As always, a push up through the bottom of the pivot is a bullish indicator, and we can see hidden bullish divergence printing on the MACD's negative histogram between August 13th at 12:30 a.m. and now. However, price needs to remain above that low of $6292.70 to validate it. Support is denoted with the boxes and pivots below price. As always, risk management is key and trading without confirmations is nothing more than gambling. Retail traders should understand whether they are gambling or trading and not lie to themselves about it if they are the former. The true "sweet spot" is placing your stop loss where price action invalidates your current position but not a dollar more. Trade safe, everyone.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
Are shorts about to provide fuel for Bitcoin appreciation?Good Friday morning, traders. The end of the week is here and Bitcoin appears to be setting up for a large move. Many traders were shaken out overnight by the drop in price and remain even more skittish now. As I mentioned during last night's live stream, yesterday's daily candle printed an inside bar which most often precedes a strong movement. While that movement can be downward, inside bars are most often associated with a reversal of the previous trend. Indicators being at or near oversold as we've seen then lately, especially on the daily, as well as shorts going parabolic the past few days into overbought territory, provide support to the idea that we will see a strong move upward. The daily chart shows price finding resistance at the descending dashed line as well as support at the S1. I am watching for a new higher high to be printed (price pushing above $8500 swing high) to confirm the potential LPS as noted on the chart. StochRSI remains strongly oversold and RSI is sitting at 36.5, just below its resistance at 41. A push through this resistance should see price pushing through the dashed line. A breach of the daily pivot around the 38.2 retracement should set up the attempt at breaching the swing high. I have been warning about the build up in shorts and at this point believe we will be seeing a short squeeze. The 30 minute chart gives you the areas I am watching noted with the boxes and horizontal lines based off various TFs. The first step for price is to breach the local swing high which is the equilibrium of that green box at $6627. Shorts should begin seeing liquidation around the mid-$6500s and mid-$6600s. I have highlighted the S1, pivot, and R1 levels in red. These are significant areas that price needs to push through to continue higher. The big move will be if price can breach the top of the blue box at $6925. That box denotes the previous supply zone/demand zone/supply zone once again. Currently, price is forming a tight pennant at the end of that $200 green candle suggesting that we should see it targeting the $6700-$6800 area. I wouldn't be surprised, depending on the degree of shorts liquidation up to that point, if we saw price extending its run to $6950. A fast enough move has the potential to see price pushing all the way up to the $7200 area as traders scramble to cover their shorts while others get liquidated. A significant number of stop losses and longs should be triggered on a breach of the top of that blue box. Failure of follow-through at this point, has the potential to see price dropping further. If so, traders should watch the boxes noted below price for support. As always, I will be discussing this in greater depth during today's live streams at 10 a.m. CST and 9 p.m. CST and looking at various TFs. TV won't allow me to post the social media site where I will be broadcasting from, but it's easy to find so I am sure if you are interested in tuning in you'll have no problem finding me. Thank you for checking out the analysis. Be sure to follow us here and leave a "like" on the way out.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
5
Liquidated retail shorts will fuel Bitcoin's upward movementGood Thursday morning, traders. Things start becoming interesting now with the weekend just a day away and daily RSI sitting on oversold. If you have been tuning into our daily live streams, then you know I have discussed the various possibilities presenting themselves at this time. Daily oversold often provides a bit of a decent bounce for price, at least, though many times it results in much more significant upside. Shorts continue to build to precarious levels as they are less than one tick away from being overbought, having risen +40% in the past 6 days while longs are currently down only about 10% in the past 3 days, putting them right back around the area they were at 6 days ago. Shorts hitting overbought at the same time price hits oversold has the potential to be quite explosive. As we saw late last night, when price hit the $6350 area shorts were already being liquidated. As I have continued to mention, their recent rate of growth suggests retail traders entering on emotion which results in over-leveraged, under-capitalized positions. In other words, a quick jump up in price could send shorts spiraling into liquidation which would result in a strong move up in price. As I am writing this I am watching short positions entered on this morning's light dip already getting liquidated. We continue to see strong bullish divergence building up on the MACD's negative histogram. If today's candle closes high enough it will create a new shorter tick to that histogram thereby cementing that bullish divergence. Right now, I am watching a strong bounce out of the upper-$6100s into almost $6500. Of course we saw some significant shorts liquidating on the way which enhanced that bounce as I outlined it would above. You can use the tool at tucsky.github.io to watch the buy and sell orders greater than $100K, across all major exchanges, as well as their liquidations in real time. Now we just need to see follow-through. I'm seeing shorts continuing to build though which means retail traders are trying to FOMO in at what they think will be the top of the bounce because they're all very emotionally bearish. Again, I believe these are over-leveraged, under-capitalized shorts which will provide fuel to move higher with just a nudge further upward in price. Overhead resistance begins in earnest at the $6800 box, however price must push through $6560 to even think about that box. I have noted the support and resistance areas on the 1H chart as well as provided the bigger picture via the 1D chart. Speaking of the latter, notice that StochRSI remains almost flat in oversold territory which, as I have been pointing out the past few days, should mean we will be seeing a reversal pretty soon. In terms of Wyckoff, I believe this to be the LPS. But that means we need to see a move upward from here to a new higher high (above $8500) in the form of an SOS to confirm it. As always, I will be discussing this in greater depth during today's live streams at 10 a.m. CST and 9 p.m. CST and looking at various TFs. TV won't allow me to post the social media site where I will be broadcasting from, but it's easy to find so I am sure if you are interested in tuning in you'll have no problem finding me. Thank you for checking out the analysis. Be sure to follow us here and leave a "like" on the way out.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
14
Bitcoin price is sitting on support, but does it mean anything?Good Thursday morning, traders. I'm sure many of you have thrown in the towel and believe price MUST absolutely make new lows. Remember, price does not HAVE to do anything, especially not what retail traders believe it needs to do and that is why retail traders often end up buying the top and selling the bottom. While I am not convinced in which direction price is about to move just yet, here are the things that I find most compelling at this time. In addition to everything else noted below, TD sequential is at a 9 for today's daily candle and there is significant bullish divergence on the daily which provides a strong case for upward movement sooner rather than later. Bitcoin dominance continues to rise and is currently 48.8%. Price is sitting right above the S1 daily pivot and daily RSI is sitting on oversold. At this same point in 2015 (yes, I believe we are closer to that point when looking at price action and volume, not much earlier as has been suggested by everyone else looking at derivatives of this in the form of indicators) we may have been where it is noted that price was testing the downward sloping resistance line as support as well. Notice this is just slightly different than my other recent Wyckoff comparison analysis attached below which looks at the current 1D v. the previous 3D time frame. Price in both instances is also sitting on the support line indicated, which is derived from the same area in each. As I discussed in last night's live stream, this creates a perfect bounce area with indicators being oversold on many TFs and printing bullish divergences. However, it is also the perfect area from which to create a capitulation-type bounce - a terminal shakeout to remove the remaining weak hands from the market before pushing out of the correction. If this occurs, I don't expect to see price reach sub-$5000 levels at this time. Realistically, we are now testing support which is the next step after a spring, so my initial expectation would be to see price continue up from this general area. Notice I have added a red line to the current price movement as it denotes the bottom of the support area. The test after the spring should end within the support zone which in this case is denoted by the horizontal dotted line and that horizontal solid red line. So, when I say this general area, that is what I am referring to. This means price could potentially move downward another $300-$400 before completing the test and without going into capitulation. Volume has continued to drop significantly during, and since, yesterday's move down further suggesting a reversal in trend may be setting up. However, we don't trade on opinions rather we evaluate how price action and volume continue to play out and then trade accordingly. As always, I will be discussing this in greater depth during today's live streams at 10 a.m. CST and 9 p.m. CST and looking at various TFs. TV won't allow me to post the social media site where I will be broadcasting from, but it's easy to find so I am sure if you are interested in tuning in you'll have no problem finding me. Thank you for checking out the analysis. Be sure to leave a "like" on the way out.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
21
Bitcoin's diamond/double bottom is playing outGood morning, traders. Bitcoin appears to be working on the bounce that I discussed was more likely than not during the live stream last night. However, we must remain aware of the potential for a dead cat bounce rather than a full reversal of what may just be a corrective leg down since the $8500 high. This recent upward momentum has pushed price above the descending wedge's resistance and closer to the local descending broadening wedge's resistance (denoted by the dotted black lines). We continue to expect price to challenge the top of the large descending broadening wedge which started printing at the $8500 high. As I mentioned, a move up from the recent low requires advancement through various stages. The first is that we need to see a strong close above the recent swing high at $7153.60. Zooming out to the 4H chart shows us that an Eve and Adam double bottom formed (another way of looking at the double bottom is that it formed a "W" pattern) which means that a breach of that swing high sets up a target of $7438 which we get by measuring the distance from the bottom to that swing high and then adding it to the latter. This double bottom is also part of the diamond I have mentioned was likely forming the past couple of days. If price manages to breach $7300 and head toward the double bottom target, then it makes a compelling case for targeting the previous box at $7630-$7800. Along the way, we have a couple of 1H boxes that should provide some temporary resistance at $7230-$7280 and $7380-7420. The top of the daily cloud resides just above the 23.6% level at $7876. A close above this would mark the first time price has been above it since January. As we can see on the daily chart, price bounced near the 61.8% level and a good breach of $7130.90 gets it above the 50% level thereby suggesting a possible trend reversal from this recent corrective leg of movement. The daily pivot sits around the 38.2% retracement level of $7455.60 and a close above it is bullish. Daily RSI and OBV are bouncing off their supports and StochRSI has completed a bullish cross at the bottom of oversold.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
4
Are we really where they say in 2014?Remember, all corrections take the same general path as they are all the result of human beings and their unconscious reaction to fear and greed. They just take longer or shorter depending on the movement prior, and the movements may be more or less exaggerated. This comparison in no way suggests that price will definitively do one thing or the other. It is presented as an alternative view to the current lagging indicator narrative comparisons that have been permeating the market since February. All the other 2014 comparisons use indicator positions to attempt to make us believe where we currently are in relation to that period. The problem with that is that it only tells us a story in relation to price at that time. That in no way gives us any reason to believe that we are where they say we are now. Instead, let's take a look at volume and price action beginning with the Selling Climax (SC). Notice there is no SC until January of 2015. We, of course, had one in February of 2018. Take some time and look at all the points highlighted in both time frames, from the corrections prior to 2014 and 2018 (green and red boxes), to the price action and volume comparisons. While there are no guarantees either way, it seems to me that anyone seriously considering every other way that 2014 has been presented should at least be taking a look at it this way as well. (NOTE: The large candle prior to the SC in 2014 would appear to be an upthrust during redistribution.) Be sure to share this chart with everyone you can throughout social media, and ask those who view it to do the same, so that we can get a dialogue going and consider where this may fail in comparison or where it may present a compelling case. At the end of the day, no one knows exactly where price may end up at any time, so the only way traders can protect themselves to any extent is to understand the other side of the story they may be adhering to at the time. Only then can they apply appropriate risk management to their positions.
BNC:BLX
by Chris_Inks
5
BTC Distribution PhasesG'Day Cobbers A quick educational piece on Market Cycles. All on Charts. Message me with any Questions. G'day Thanks for dropping by, hopefully you garner something valuable from my post, be it educational or an idea towards a trade of your own. Please share, like and comment and engage with me, I am here to help. Trader, Chart analyst and all round larrikin. Reside in NQ Australia, surrounded by Crocodiles, snakes & giant spiders, not to mention the boxing Kangaroos and devilish Drop bears. It makes my job quite hazardous but strewth mate, I love it.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by TroyByrne
3
Bitcoin in Distribution IDEAThere are 2 things after what I call a golden Chart in my Accumulation model (I'll leave it as related Ideas). The #1 thing is we might be in a distribution, so I tried to do the same thing I did with accumulation model, but now I am doing it based on distribution model, now, #2 thing is that either one of which I have been analyzing does not fit entirely with what is happening, so I will let this open for debate. We stablished a High Top as Buying Climax that has pretty poor volume, but I could still use that as a TOP, if not you can counter analyze it with arguments please :). Now we Never touch that BC top again... never went back to 8.4k. Actually I was hopping we could go to 8.6k at least before dumping, but I guess that's the deal, so without taking any risks I decided 8.2k was a good point for shorting. Now we DID test a light resistance at 8.3k in several occasions, but then it couldn't hold so now we see a way straight to lower 7kish levels. (This perfectly fits with Descending triangle drawn in recent posts too) Now I am waiting 7.4k. Question is: Would be possible to jump once again? in that case a second Top would work well with this Schematic of Distribution, it would only give more time. This is just an idea, not an advice of any kind, just want to know what you guys think of this one and give me a like if you liked it. Thank you. :)
by G0ldenross
1
Two possible bullish Bitcoin scenarios after yesterday's moveGood morning, traders. Price dipped a bit further than expected, but so far is acting exactly as I discussed it was likely to do. We saw strong absorption on the drop as indicated by the large volume and appear to have found the bottom, for now, at around $7450. This provides two possible scenarios if price is to continue upward. The right chart shows the possibility of price having just completed subwave 4 in the larger wave 1. This is my primary count at this time. I pulled my blue box back into this chart and we can see that the low point of this move down is about midway into the box. I also have the lower two support areas denoted by the horizontal dark red lines at ~$7400 and ~$7200. The pattern for what appears to be wave 4 in this current upward movement has developed from a pennant to a flag to a descending broadening wedge. As you can see, I have updated my EW count inside that DBW to a WXY. The challenge right now is that we aren't seeing much in the way of a rebound just yet. While not a significant issue at the moment, it could possibly mean that we are in the second scenario presented in the left chart. However, if we do see volume and spread expanding throughout today and potentially into tomorrow, then it bodes well for continued upward movement from here. That being said, price sill has to break that swing high at $8500. Failure to do so gives it a double top and we can expect price to then potentially target the ~$6400 area based on the current low last night. As we can see, that would put price at the S3 pivot on this time frame. The horizontal black dashed line shows us that it is a support area. But traders have to remember a double top isn't confirmed until price breaks the valley's low. So we would actually have to see price target that $8500 area and then also breach the $7450 low from last night afterward. If price follows this course, then we can assume that the current area is distribution with accumulation occurring at a lower point, possibly as low as that $6400 area, but we will need to continue watching price action and volume as the chart develops. This left chart shows price having completed the larger wave 1 and currently completing wave 2. In this scenario, we can see price ultimately testing the ~$6800 demand box which would put it at the bottom of the ascending broadening wedge (denoted by the ascending black dotted lines) which price would have pushed out of bullishly as it ran toward $8500. If this scenario plays out, then my initial expectation is to see a wick down into the box and subsequent good rebound back out of it. I expect a lot of demand at that point as there are a lot of buyers who missed their entry there on the way up recently. Traders need to remember that price is a process and the goal is to understand what may happen and then utilize what you know, as the analyst, to decipher the probabilities as to possible price movement. In doing so, traders must be fluid in their ability to remove the possible price paths that no longer make sense and add new ones as additional data makes itself known. Strong risk management is the backbone of wealth accumulation in this game, yet sadly it is the one part of trading that most new retail traders give little, if any, time to understanding and perfecting. Yes, we are on multiple social media accounts, however TV does not allow us to advertise them. I'm sure our followers here are astute enough to find us. Thank you for following and be sure to leave a "like."
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
17
Bitcoin is moving as suggested was likely during the live streamGood morning, traders. It's Thursday which means the week's end is near and trade volume generally begins decreasing. The overhang from the OKEx $420 million long liquidation comes to a head tomorrow. OKEx needs price to ramp back up above $8000 by Friday's settlement, which is 16:00 Hong Kong time on August 3, to cover/mitigate the loss created by that liquidation. If it fails to do so, the exchange does have a socialized loss clawback system that will require "users that have a net profit across all three contracts for that week be subject to ." That means that traders in net profit will see the clawback rate, whatever it happens to be at that time, deducted automatically from their profit. This means that we could see the exchange spoofing buy orders to get price moving upward or larger interested/potentially negatively-affected parties doing the same. This is just speculation, but it is something to watch for as price dropping any lower would become extremely expensive for those OKEx profiteers targeted by the clawback system, especially since that significant of a clawback would likely hurt OKEx strongly in terms of user migration toward other exchanges. We saw price breach $7700 overnight and then retrace to just below the 78.6% fib level. This looks to be a deep retrace of wave 2 of this smaller movement which began at yesterday's low of $7440. A drop below this latter level suggests further bearish momentum requiring a watch of the $7200 level as the next area of support. If price continues higher without breaching that lower level, then I expect it to follow the general outline of movement created by the blue lines I added during last night's live stream (I have only modified them slightly to fit the overnight movement). Those lines in no way suggest a time frame or EW wave structure, however; rather they serve as a guide to potential price movement. At this point, price has created what appears to be a triple bottom on the 1H chart with the most recent low being higher than the previous two, suggesting upward momentum. But we do need to see follow through which means price must breach the overnight high. Doing so will pull it out of the descending broadening wedge as well. Its current structure does appear to be a mini accumulation period further supporting the idea of price appreciation. We can see strong bullish divergence between MACD's negative histogram and price as well on this time frame, so traders should be watching for the same on larger time frames too. Everything else aside, as I mentioned during last night's live stream, we expect price to at least challenge the top of the large descending broadening wedge as the fourth alternating touch which could then see a retracement as low as the middle of the DBW as the 5th movement and then a push up and out of that upper resistance line. I will discuss that more in this morning's stream. As always, TV won't allow me to advertise where we stream, but I have no doubt y'all can find it quick and easy. Thanks, as always, for following and giving a "like" to the chart!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
14
Bitcoin's morning shakeout has traders reelingGood morning, traders. Price action this morning exemplifies the importance of short term traders not getting into a position when the market is moving sideways like it has been. This is what I'm constantly warning new traders about. There is no definitiveness of movement until price exits that sideways chop. Unfortunately that is also one of the most difficult things to get new traders to understand as they constantly feel the need to be in the market. This desire to do so is purely emotional and will result in losses if not kept in check. On the bright side, it does appear that we may have completed/are nearing completion of an ABC correction which would complete Wave 4 and send us up to complete Wave 5. For those who have been following my live streams, I did mention the possibility on the 27th/28th that the move down which appeared to be a spring at that time could be the ST on a larger TF with the spring to come since price had dropped significantly lower than the previous low. And that when that spring came, it would likely be at the end of the pennant -- a drop through the bottom of the pennant causing traders to go short so that those shorts would fill the C.O.'s waiting longs. Looking at the 6H chart four days later, this does appear to be the case. The challenge faced when a movement first begins is understanding what's going on. A trader's understanding should refine itself as the movement plays out allowing the trader to lessen their risk of entry but simultaneously decreasing the potential reward. This is where understanding one's particular position as trader/investor comes into play. By being honest with yourself and understanding what makes you who you are as a trader/investor (current wealth and financial position, long/short/mid-term financial and wealth goals, level of risk aversion or tolerance, and the TF you are able to trade on) you are able to develop a trading style that provides the greatest possible return for yourself. Not doing so will lead to failure in proper risk management and subsequent loss of capital. If you joined our live streams yesterday, you know I mentioned that I didn't expect to see any large directional movements out of the TR until after the monthly close. This most recent price action has set the stage for that further potential advancement. By pushing price down as has been done this morning, we are seeing a lower low in price from the July 27th swing low. We are also seeing RSI dipping into oversold on the larger TFs. A strong advance from this point would create a possible higher low in oscillators at those same points thereby creating bullish divergence and signalling further price appreciation. As we have been discussing during our live streams, keeping price within the TR creates boredom for traders causing some to exit before definitive movement and others to be shaken out with a spring. This is the removal of excess supply from the market -- "getting rid of the weak hands" as it is often referred to -- and is what appears to potentially be occurring this morning. To validate this, we need to see strong movement up as the day progresses. This strong push down before the monthly close is akin to what happens before CME and CBOE futures closes. Failure of price appreciation into this evening (beyond the monthly close) would have me considering this to be a top in spite of everything we have been seeing recently. It doesn't make sense at this time, but one of the most important skills to have as a trader is the ability to remain fluid when the market signals something different from your current position. Yes, we are on multiple social media accounts, however TV does not allow us to advertise them. I'm sure our followers here are astute enough to find us. Thank you for following and be sure to leave a "like."
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
16
Bitcoin Cause & EffectCause and effect the cornerstone of Wyckoff methodology. Time to get physical, Isaac Newton famously once said ‘For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction’. With that in mind, let's use it analyse the previous cycles on BTC… Aprils accumulation (cause) and markup phase (effect). Accumulation lasted 13days and markup lasted an equal amount of time. NOTE: dropping volume on markup Mays distribution (cause) and markup phase (effect). Distribution lasted 26days and markdown lasted 23days. :thonking June/Julys accumulation (cause) lasted 34days. Markup is yet to be defined but based on these findings I think there's a strong chance that this markup cycle lasts a similar amount of time. NOTE: Expanding volume on markup Obviously, this is highly speculative but most definitely worth keeping in mind when calling distribution, the top or have weak shakey childs like hands. :thonking Twitter feed here -> twitter.com
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by DickieWyckoff
3
BTC in a Wyckoff distribution, probable fall down on the weekendHello cryptotraders, I come back with and idea for BITFINEX:BTCUSD i´ve been reading and developing on the Wyckoff scenarios, so i leave you here my first chart with this method. After surpassing 7250 BTC is inside the symmetrical triangle, the lower line of the triangle is the one you can see in green that is as well acting as support, the Wyckoff distribution is developing inside the triangle. At the moment we are approaching the UTAD Test in phase C , which will be the HH (higher high) BTC reaches in this leg up if this scenario is right, that would be around 7600 - 7650. If this scenario is wrong then i would love to see BTC surpass the upper part of the symmetrical triangle over 7800 and see it reaching up to 11200 values. Personally i will close my long in the UTAD Test, and wait to see how the scenario develops. Cheers Rob
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by rlpz
1