Wyckoff Distribution in Full Effect in BTCFirst chart release.
Annotations on the chart that provide some of my later thinking.
This is a distribution pattern I've been trading for the past two weeks very successfully. We're now in a supply channel which I'll be keeping an eye closely on for a breakdown. I would expect to see an increase in volatility and a reclaiming of the top channel line when this is ready to move out. Current price action isn't moving back to the O/S channel and this is something I'm keeping my eye on.
Looking for a target of 6.8 before a break of the channel and a move to accumulation/re-distribution.
Distribution
Dow Jones Industrial Average Case for Wyckoffian DistributionThe Dow Jones is beginning to make a strong case for entering a phase of distribution. As the DJ:DJI is essentially an index of the American Economy, this will be a trading range that I am particularly interested in and will continue to watch over the coming months.
It's difficult to time moves when it comes to Technical Analysis. Targets/Levels are easy to do, but the question of "when" is often hard to answer. This will be a waiting game. I shall also take a look at some key stocks on the Dow 30 to see if there's a consistent pattern of slowing bullish momentum, supply sneaking into the market, or the beginning of distribution phases.
Dow 30: www.investopedia.com
Wyckoff Logic Tutorial: stockcharts.com
What if megamoon may canceled? [BEAR IDEA]Since April 19th (and fairly apparent by the 11th) BTC is looking quite like a textbook example of Wyckoff distribution. The most recent pump after bottoming slightly at 8.2k seems like possible throwback, and will be adding more to my short from now till 8.7k. Will market eject at 8.9k.
Coindesk Consensus is next week and so it this will either be a mega fomo bulltrap or I'm an idiot and will need to throw some eth for some KYS: killyourself.network.
Wyckoff on BTC(Distribution)-Considering the shrinking volume on the Signs of Weakness' in Phase B, I assume we are in the Distribution Schematic #1
-Also, look at the Distribution Schematic #1, it is nearly identical with our BTC situation
Thanks for taking a look, please PM me if you are a fellow Wyckoffian so we can share ideas!
TSLA Wyckoff distribution - will investors regain confidence?Even before the tragic news which caused a mass sell-off, price action already exhibiting simplified similarity to schematics of Wyckoff distribution. Bulls rallied all the way up into previous support zone until close of trading on the 5th of April. With RSI showing exhaustion and potential loss of confidence following the April fools tweet from Elon Musk this throwback presents short opportunity.
BTC is indecisive and procrastination.. But not for longBTC is in a big symmetrical triangle (Yellow lines)
I am now more convinced the current trading range is a distribution schematic..
Mainly because of the volume that comes with these red dongers (Sign of weakness).
Everytime we hit the supply line btc 0.85% takes a dive south and find temporary support at the bottom of the trading range..
We might test the supply line once more or even try to break through it.. The supply line is for me a perfect target to short btc 0.85% or when strongly breaking down the support (bottom of trading range)!
Warning: If this for some reason breaks the supply line with lots of volume and price movement this distribution will be invalidated for me
This is my opinion and i can change my opinion when the market changes. This is just my current view
US Dollar No DemandThe US Dollar has been in distribution with large speculators unwinding their net long positions (COT Report) that had been building since mid 2000. Currently the longs and shorts are matching each other and there is no commitment in the US Dollar. The volume signature has also decreased. The correlation with the 10 year bond yields has also shown a significant divergence especially since the start of 2018. Bond yield are increasing but this has not stimulated investment into the Dollar. If this bond yields continues to rise it could stimulate investors as the benefits could out-way the risk. With all the uncertainty in the market large speculators are playing the waiting game. However, when there is a contraction in a market a big move can be expected and when the large players have clarity on which side they are committing we can ride the wave with them. The divergence in bond rate differentials can be seen in dollar pairs and could create opportunities when correcting.
Looks like a tough ride ahead for BITCOIN !! Brace yourselves!!Hello fellow crypto traders!! Let me get right into it!
Bitcoin prices has been dropping since it's all time high top. Coincidentally (or not), the all time high date was the day that CME futures started. From then, we have so far dropped from 20k down to 6k and bounced. But that bounce had retraced quite a bit and it seems that BTC is heading further down from here. The 50 days moving average is going to cross over the 200 days moving average in the next few days and that usually signals a bearish outlook for the medium term. CCI index also shows consistent strength in the selling and not looking to ease any soon. Then, we also have the large head and shoulders formation confirmation where BTC had pierced thru the neckline. We shall see if it can return back up above the neckline and save itself or simply resigned to it and the neckline becoming a resistance.
Based on an educated guess, I and seeing BTC heading towards the $1000-$2000 levels before the bear market is concluded.
This chart is only for educational purpose and all opinions are expressly my own.
Good luck!
BTCEUR, example of a trend break after active accumulation.Example of a trend break after active accumulation.
The analysis was performed using the X-volume indicator. Thin vertical dashed lines indicate candles with active accumulation. The blue dashed lines indicate the process of redistribution. For details, refer to the instructions for the indicator. It should be noted that it is not true to speak of a trend change analyzing only a few bars.
$AMZN - Amazon is "OUT OF RALLY TIME" using Time@Mode Amazon has rallied for 15 weeks into last week's close after accumulating at the mode back this past fall for 15 weeks. In other words: Amazon has "run out of time".
Once Amazon blasted off on its previous earnings report back in October, it kicked off a 15 week rally which ran far beyond the rally that was implied by the previous move from $766 (where it lingered for 17 weeks in 2016 and had a 22 week rally out of that accumulation). A move from $766 to $980 was 29% and the implied rally from $980 was also 29%, but it ran up over 50% (see chart).
Now that $AMZN has reached $1498, the PSR reached 4 times (an extreme reading) while the free cash flow yield has fallen to 1%, which means that the $7 billion in free cash flow is only 1% of the $700 billion in market cap for Amazon. Growth over the coming decade will help drive up that yield, but right now that is the return you would earn if you took Amazon private.
Using the Time@Mode methodology, together with Key Earnings Levels stemming from quarterly earnings reports and raw and relative valuation analysis, we can see here that Amazon has "RUN OUT OF TIME" on a weekly basis for this rally and would only expect it to move sideways to down over the upcoming 15 week time frame as a new level of consolidation builds as the fundamentals "catch up".
For now: It is opportunistic to sell short $AMZN with 5%-10% downside targets. Cover and re-short on 75% rebounds as many times as possible for the next 14 weeks.
Tim
12:41PM EST February 7, 2018 $1439 last $AMZN
XRPUSD is squeezing the weak longsThe breakdown of the XRPUSD from the big speculative top formation is readily apparent from the chart.
The market is driving towards the weak long holders' stop order pool to wash out weak longs. Until those trapped weak longs are washed out, we are not going to see price rallying above 2.4 dollar mark.
What I am looking for is a accumulation pattern below 1.4 dollar before switching my bias to the long side.
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Happy Trading!