Intraday top in place?Rotating lower with falling momentum.
Daily charts are also unwinding, suggesting profit-taking and a sell-into-strength strategy.
Focus expected to turn to Fib supports within 2160/80~
Distribution
More Before Less Central Bank Stimulus To Run Economies Hot 2017Central banks are (again) helping bulls by keeping the stimulus active until they see higher inflation - according to rumors and speculation of the last three days, ahead of the next ECB meeting this Thursday, October 20, 2016, where Mario Draghi might surprise the market to the upside again, after the reaction to the last meeting was a falling stock market.
This could mean that we might get a very boring low volatility sideways choppy trending market in the next months until maybe even the end of January 2017, as shown on the chart. If these trend lines hold, the next move would be up, therefore a long to at least 2150 is the next logical step in this calm market scenario, if the low of October 13, 2016 holds as key support, producing higher lows as result in the days ahead. The upper end of this projected move higher could end at resistance around 2169-2171, which is the 2. long target after 2150.
Long entry: 2125-2130
1. Target: 2150
2. Target: 2170
Stop Loss: 2120
1. Reward: 20 points
2. Reward: 40 points
Risk: 10 points (from 2130)
The news:
"Draghi Seen Embracing More Before Less 'QE' as Inflation Edges Up"
www.bloomberg.com
Seventy-eight percent of the 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg from October. 7-14 forecast the ECB will announce fresh stimulus, and nine in ten of those say it will happen in December at the earliest.
There is a common perception that WSJ reporter Jon Hilsenrath, perhaps one of the most well-connected journalists at the Federal Reserve. Here is his last article for the Wall Street Journal:
"Yellen Cites Benefits to Running Economy Hot for Some Time" (by Jon Hilsenrath)
www.wsj.com
(here a link without a pay wall) www.morningstar.com
P.S The "S&P 500" close of Friday, October 14 shows a lot of bullish divergence on the mainstream indicators (RSI, Stochastic, CCI) and the "S&P 500" bounced back from outside the standard deviation as shown by the Bollinger Band. Therefore there is still some chance left for the bulls to turn this sinking ship around during this outlined potential sideways trend.
Loonie H1 - wait for pullback to ICEIt seems we had more complex distribution schematic than expected. After FOMC USDCAD is going down. Strategy would be to wait for pullback to ICE and if "no demand" or upthrust, take a short.
Distribution on USDJPY H1USDJPY came back to distribution line (ICE). It made false breakout. I expect to move down to about 100.
USDJPY bottom of range test complete now for the topUSDJPY the bottom of the trading range was tested. A buyers entered the market with high volumes overwhelming the sellers. Now the top of the trading range should be tested. The 'TDI is also defining a trading range. So I will be looking long until the 'TDI reaches the top of its range to go short again.
S&P 500 - Distribution - short (potential)Seeing some decent distribution here, the breaks on this move up have been applied. There's signs of weakening momentum up to monthly...
That said just cause the breaks have been applied doesn't mean we're about to stop just yet. Might keep on grinding for a bit more. Likely more room on the downside than the the upside tho.
Will be on the lookout for short opportunities. Main target for an eventual short would be the support that allowed this move up. Partial profit taking at the high tf/ long term levels on the way down.
Explaining fractals within fractals. 15 min. vs. 5 minute charts15 minute and 5 minute charts are really low timeframes already. Especially for swing traders so let me be clear about the fact that higher timeframe and lower timeframe are to be seen as relative terms here.
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We can see the following happening:
- in the 15min timeframe there's a clear accumulation going on.
- There's a run up towards old resistance and an old bearish orderblock (which I've not indicated)
- There's a smart money reversal
Then the interesting stuff happens.
- Because of the initial drop down from the smart money reversal, the 5 minute timeframe shows an optimal entry for a buy. So there's some accumulation of long orders happening.
- The lower timeframe makes a run towards resistance, accumulates there and then goes higher to form another high.
- The lower timeframe also creates a smart money reversal
- A lower timeframe low risk sell (which is also the same for the higher timeframe as this would have been the entire consolidation at the top there)
- We can see price drop with certainty, moving away from the consolidation there
- A very small consolidation forming distribution for the 5 minute chart and then
- Another drop down to arrive at the new distribution/re-accumulation zone for the smaller timeframe.
This is the important part.
Normally the 5 minute timeframe would continue stacking long orders here, but because of the higher timeframe premise, they should not.
- We can clearly see that the smaller timeframe distribution zone is actually the 1st distribution zone for the larger timeframe.
- Then another drop occurs and the larger timeframe arrived at it's destination. Presumably trapping or stopping out 5 minute chart traders.
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Both buyers and sellers can be right within both bullish and bearish markets. This is only to show why one side of the market tends to make a mistake opposite to another. Note: this serves for my own training purposes, again setting in stone whatever I've learned from the ICT.
Accumulation Reversal Distribution on EURUSDI wanted to take a moment and train myself into recognizing the ICT accumulation / reversal / distribution. We can see this pattern come back to us on many occasions but this one is particularly easy to spot and so I'll happily take this chance to set this in stone for later reference.
Inside fractals
We have got buy and sell fractals generally consisting of:
Initial consolidation/accumulation
Run towards support/resistance
SM reversal
Low risk buy/sell
Redistribution or Re-accumulation
Important notes:
Fractals can occur within fractals
Marketmaker sellsetups can take place within larger buysetups and vice versa
It does not necessarily have to have the same amount of 'steps'
Worse even, it can happen that the normal re-accumulation, which you'd expect to happen, will not take place. This is often due to the larger timeframe premise, you should have been aware of in the first place.
The larger timeframes are dominant to smaller ones.
USDJPY the redistribution range has been setThe USDJPY has made a correction to the ML of the pitchfork setting the trading range during the redistribution phase. If this Wyckoff view of the market holds we could se the market range between these levels well into next year. For now we will be looking for a reaction at the LML of the Pitchfork.
EURUSD downmove with Take Profit levelsEURUSD has just nearly touched this mornings 78.6 retracement level. Looking at the s//r levels from the past I was able to find some in february that match the 1.272, 1.414 and 1.618 levels of the present, which I've rounded off to be more precise. We're likely to see the high of the week forming tomorrow (tuesdays) to kill all scalpers and shorts that have tight stops, before falling towards the TP's.
USDJPY establishing the redistribution rangePrice has moved to the top of the 55 Day OF and has shown some strong price rejection at this level. Volume remains low but the next move down should show some volume and spread increase which would indicate distribution. The range for the redistribution has now been set. Price did not make it to the Pitchfork ML which shows some weakness.
USDJPY bussy with redistributionNow that redistribution has started we had a strong price move up (breaking the 21 Day OF) but not supported by volume. This has now defined the trading range that should develop (grey horizontal lines). Within this I expect some corrective structure to develop. For next week we should be going short after Tuesday.
XAUUSD/Gold Short/distribution?Gold's move upward seems to be losing momentum in more than just one timeframe. Theres potential for a short to support. Or it'll just break up and continue a bit more. But I think down is more likely.
USDJPY Now redistribution has startedLast week I was still wondering if we would go into the re-distribution phase. We continued to spike down last week to reach the bottom of the 55 Day and 21 Day Oscillation Frequency Channels. We also touched the 100 level but did not break it. There as been divergence on the TDI for some time. With NFP coming in better than expected I think this could indicate the end of the markdown phase and the start of another distribution phase. The corrective structure that should develop now could take us into next year before a further markdown phase occurs.
Maruti - Doji with Bearish Divergence (Sell)I have observed three doji candlesticks, that denotes consolidation or distribution, where previous buyers book profit or distribute their shares. It is at the level of selling or resistance. I believe it is a good time to short it now at minimum risk size and also at this point where Nifty is also looking bearish.
Further 3 points noted:
1. Doji formation with bearish divergence
2. Shrinking of volume levels with increasing prices, signals trend change, for this one, a bearish signal.
3. Double Top with bearish divergence.
Above points make me think that it is a good sell, with a stoploss of 4238 (1.28%) and target of 3922 (6%)
USDJPY Redistribution has started?Based on the Wyckoff evaluation I have been following the past weeks it is possible that we could be in a redistribution phase for the USDJPY. The previous accumulation phase bounded the market between 105 and 101 and this could occur again. The redistribution could extend to the next fib time zone in February 2017 as measured from the market peek of the distribution phase. Good volume spikes are indicate at the fib time zones. Will be looking for a drop on NFP on Friday back to the LML of the Pitchfork.
Bitcoin Market Crash Cycle Comparison - Launchpad
twitter.com
If you are familiar with this image, you'll understand very well that market crash cycles can be found in every corner of the market. With the only similarity between all markets being the human beings behind the money (price), it would be sensible to think that the psychology & emotions behind these humans play a pivotal role in understanding markets and trading.
If we can break this market structure down into 4 easy-to-understand parts, we would come up with something like this:
1. Accumulation
2. Launchpad
3. Pump
4. Dump
Relating this to Bitcoin, it seems like the year long accumulation period is over, as $BTCUSD broke above major resistance $300 in October 2015. Based on my interpretation of the market crash cycle, we have now moved into the launchpad phase with our current price action raging between $294 and $502.
If Bitcoin continues to be the leading blockchain network, it should become widely regarded and generally accepted as the base currency of other cryptocurrencies. In the shorter term, the bitcoin halving happening in Q3 2016 will set the stage for a pump, and for that to happen, MMs must maintain the uptrend structure formed since October 2015. Any breaks below structure will either delay the pump, or lead to another downtrend.
Upside targets are $710, $995, and $1163.
Downside is $341, $280, $220, $160.
$NHTC eaZY 1800% Basic TA [ SnipeSnipe ]Look at this Market.. ok ok.. it doenst matter which market, but this is gone wild for the last couple of months.. perfect market cycle.. even foconacci Extension was working.. =) So lets crack da Nuts..:
Whats going on and on and on - every market every TimeFrame:
1. Accumulation
2. First Pump
3. Accumulation
4. Second Pump
5. Accumulation
6. Third Pump
7. Distribution
8. Pullback
9. Bounce
10. Sell off
Questions..? No.. Onto da next one.. Search those gems.. wait .. wait.. ALL iN.. $$$ ..! =)
USDCAD 60min Balance Area Breakout Opportunity USDCAD has had 9 Straight days of Advance and has been VERY Bullish. It's currently in a nice Rising Channel. The Balance Area at the highs looks like Distribution to me. A lot of times this is a "topping pattern". So, I'm waiting for a Break & Close out of the Balance Area (Yellow Box) and will enter a short position.
Stops - Will be 1 ATR above the Breakdown Bar.
Target #1 - Will be a measured move of the Balance Area (Purple Line)
Target #2 - Will be at Minor Support for a downside breakdown. 1.618% for the upside breakout
You can see that the RSI has massive Divergence at the highs as well.
I will also take the trade to the upside but I think the downside breakdown is the most probable scenario.
Oil Short - Possible Completion of Distribution RangePrices failed to break in to higher range. If prices can close below 4 hr 200 MA, look for a break down below the past 7 week range.
Entry (December Contract): 47.25-47.97
Stop (December Contrat): 48.00
Short Term Target:40.25
