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Distribution

How to Study Price and Wave volume RelationshipHi 👋 In this post I would try to throw some light on the Price & Wave Volume relationship (popularized by late David Weis). This method may help trades in two ways: 1️⃣Ride the trend 2️⃣Picking the end of a rally I came across this chart randomly and found that there are a few principles that I can discuss with the help of this chart. Before reading any further I want to disclose that this technique was not originally developed by me. However, different authors may have different interpretations when it comes to some techniques of discretionary trading. This is a small piece of what I have learnt as a big follower of price action trading. I don’t want to go for bar by bar analysis here due to time and space constraints, so I have marked a few important places (as numbers in green rectangles) that are important and need to be discussed. The numbers in white are the cumulative wave volume in crores. This means just keep on adding the volume of each up bar until there is a reversal. I have taken the reversal a 2points on closing basis. Which means I keep on adding the volume until the price closes 2points below the close of the previous bar. The opposite is true for down waves. 🚀Point1 If you look at the upwave preceding the downwave at point1, it is the sharpest of the rallies from March 2020 lows (scroll back the chart a bit). Also wave volume is the highest (37cr) compared to 10,19 and 18cr on previous upwaves. At point 1 there is 10cr volume on the downwave, which is the highest on any downwave in the rally from Mar2020 lows. This is an alarming signal that sellers are getting active. But this may not impress us to liquidate our trades as we need further evidence to confirm this weakness. 🚀Point2 Here we have very high volume accompanied by the widest bar (in the rally) but closing in the middle. These three things confirm here that sellers have stepped in and the stock is weakening. 🚀Point3 There is a rally back to the highs but this time with lesser volume (29cr compared to 37cr) than preceding rallies. This is our second confirmation that buyers are turning there back at this level, at least for now. This is a sure exit opportunity for investors who bought at the lows. 🚀Point4 There was a sharp reaction with huge volume of 31cr and very wide bar, closing off of its lows. At this point there is still confusion that the trend has reversed or not. If it was a reversal then there would have been a follow through of 31cr volume on the downside but it is not so. For the next 3 days price sustained above the low of this wide downbar. 🚀Point5 The sellers again tried to push to the stock down but look at the volume in this wave. Are you getting it now? Its just 13cr instead of 31cr on the last downwave. This infers here that seller are not interested. So if seller are not interested then what will happen? Buyers will take over. 🚀Point6 The sellers tested the level of 1, 4 and 5 a few more times, buyers holds it and that develops a support. There was a very strong rally (compared to rallies in the last one year) back to the highs and volume is again 23cr which is lesser than volume at previous highs. Lesser volume could have 2 interpretations – there are less sellers this time and/or buyers are not interested. 🚀Point7 The stock is back to the support again. But volume on downwaves is much lesser in relative terms. In fact, it decreasing from 13 to 4 and then 2cr (see chart). Where have the sellers gone? They don’t want to sell at the support. 🚀Point8 Lack of selling leads to buying and eventually to new highs. Notice that there in very less volume at point 8 (only 4cr). This time sellers attempt (5cr) was failed quickly (without hitting support) and new highs were made outside resistance (developed at 2, 3 and 6). At this stage, when the price is closing outside the resistance, I would expect more volume to come in. More volume at this stage would indicate that buyers are interested but that is not the case here. 🚀Point9 Point 8 looked like a failed breakout attempt. The price fell back into the trading range (between support and resistance ). If I look at volume here, it is 15cr on this downwave. In the immediately preceding fall with 17cr it touched the bottom end of the range but this time with 15cr it is just at the middle of the range. This signifies re-accumulation at point 9. 🚀Point10 Re-accumulation lead to a rally back into resistance. We have 13cr as of now. Its too early to say, before this upwave ends, but 13cr is less (for me at this point) to push it any further. It seems holding back in the range. 🚀🚀Final thoughts This is a very nice and rare example showing both distribution (by the seller at resistance level ) and accumulation (by the buyers at support level ). Normally the price peeps outside the range on both sides and fails to follow through, until there is a decisive break on either side. I hope you learnt something new in this post. Now you can do one thing, press 🚀 to encourage me to write more educational stuff. Thanks for reading.
NSE:ADANIPORTSEducation
by Bravetotrade
Stepping-Stone Re-Distribution Continues for BitcoinSince Oct 21, 2021, Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited a stepping-stone pattern of re-distribution. I have clearly documented these events in a series of publications as the price action unfolded. In this stepping-stone pattern, the price trades within a well-defined trading range for a time until the price commits below the lower boundary of the trading range in a shakeout (SO) and/or sign of weakness (SOW) event. Next, demand comes in to stop the downward price action then the price trades within a new trading range with well-defined boundaries. In stepping-stone re-distribution, it’s almost as if the trading ranges are kind of stacked upon one another. With the recent FTX/Alameda black swan event, we have observed a SO/SOW event. In the SO/SOW, the BTC price dropped by greater than 26%. Demand clearly stepped in to stop the price from decreasing further. Most likely we have entered a new trading range although we need to wait for confirmation. In addition, we don’t know at the moment if this new trading range is accumulation or distribution. Note: The orange circles highlight climatic level volume. Wyckoff abbreviations: automatic rally (ARa), selling climax (SC), secondary test (ST), upthrust (UT), upthrust after distribution (UDAT), preliminary supply (PS), failed upthrust (FUT), shakeout (SO), sign of weakness (SOW), upthrust (UT), Phase A (Ph A), Phase B (Ph B), Phase C (Ph C), Phase D (Ph D). This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Eightchains
3
Is the distribution pattern on JBH now complete? (JBH:ASX)* Initial peak at the end of 2021 * Sharp retrace (automatic reaction) followed by quick rally into the secondary test * Sharp fall again on most bearish volume in that period * Long phase B of about 12 months * Down moves so much quicker than the up moves * Distribution occurring through this period * Ultimate high in April 2022 forming an upthrust after distribution * Very weak retest to complete Phase C * Rapid decline in price from $57 to $37 approx in Phase D sell off * One last rally to $47 approx * Back up to the creek and upthrust to complete Phase D * We should now start the Phase E mark down. * P&F target is $10, conservative target $21 * This is my analysis of the stock. DYOR before making trades.
ASX:JBHShort
by AussieWyckoff
Probability of Rally Failure is 90% There is an important study, that estimates the success of a Follow Through Days depending on how close a Distribution Day is observed. Look at the annotated chart on SPX. In essence if we observe Distribution Days close to the FTD then the probability of Failure is high. (Failure is defined by undercut of the Day 1 Rally Day ). Study is courtesy of IBD Research. I have annotated the zones in Red, Yellow and Purple below. 🟥 Red Zone - Distribution Day 1-2 days after FTD: 95% Failure Rate 🟨 Yellow Zone - Distribution Day 3 days after FTD: 90% Failure Rate 🟪 Purple Zone - Distribution Day 4-5 days after FTD: 30% Failure Rate We observed first Distribution on Day 3 and another one yesterday on Day 4 (white bars on chart) - this is why I have labeled all my trades as High Risk - since, I wanted to see how we are to perform first week after FTD.
SP:SPXShort
by TintinTrading
4
eu short call from fx chat and a little educationi haven't posted an "idea" in a while; they're tedious a bit of a time waster often, but they're good to do; i'll have a little fun with this one but will have to leave it somewhat incomplete because... time; incomplete or not, this still ended up being a bit lengthy STARTING THE WEEK WITH A VP (VOLUME PROFILE) POC ANALYSIS since the beginning of the week, i had been calling short for eu ( EURUSD ) while the price action from the end of the previous week was bullish; i based my bearish sentiment on the previous weekly POC being naked with two other naked daily POCs below the weekly open; (if you don't know POC , learn about volume profiles; "POC" stands for point of control; it's the price range or single price where the highest volume of trading occurred during a fixed time period; naked POCs are POCs where the price has not returned yet; the market almost always revisits a POC after it's formed, so a naked POC is a very good price of interest in the beginning of the week, i shared my bearish outlook and posted a more elaborate chart in fx chat with a weekly volume profile and five daily volume profiles and a weekly anchored vwap in fx chat, among all the shitposting and arguing last week as usual, another chat member requested a chart from me, so i made this simplified chart for a short call on eu ( EURUSD ) at this point, this eu short call was a simple obvious call based on simple pa as highlighted; it requires barely any thought; basic levels of consciousness and vision are probably sufficient to make the call there are two yellow highlighted rectangular zones each zone contains regions of pa consolidations where (market) movers were building short positions; how do we know they were building shorts? they moved the price down after the consolidation to capitalize on their positions; because the price move was down, they were profiting on short positions (yes, they can make liquidity in a sense, @ name_redacted , by moving the price with market orders, which results in a chain reaction of other market participants joining in the new trend, with many participants in fear of missing out on the price movement; i'm glad i was the one to enlighten you to the term "FOMO" @ name_redacted ) the lower yellow highlighted rectangular zone covers three separate regions of pa; on the right-hand side, it shows a short consolidation (short in sense of short position, not short amount of time) as it shows sideways price ranging followed by a downward move, just like the upper yellow highlighted consolidation; i extended the lower yellow highlighted zone to the left to see what the market did in that price range recently the middle region of the lower yellow highlighted zone includes 6 bars (on this H1 chart) with pa continuing a solid downtrend in the left-hand side of the lower yellow highlighted zone, there was a relatively brief period of pa during an uptrend so in this price range (the lower yellow zone), the longs (buyers) were weak compared to much stronger shorts (sellers) on the very far right, with the most recent pa, the blue highlighted rectangular area covers the pa after i posted my short call and is consistent with my speculation POLYSEMY, CONSOLIDATION, ACCUMULATION, AND DISTRIBUTION because this "idea" includes consolidations and because there was a discussion of nontrivial length in chat this week about accumulation and consolidation, i'll take the liberty of writing about the important concept in linguistics called polysemy , which refers to the property of a word that has more than one (semantic) meaning (or sense); it is prudent to always remember that most words in our natural languages have more than one definition (or sense); context often makes it clear which definition is intended but not always; we learn this simple fact about language when we're very young; as we get older, often many people either forget or ignore or exploit this property of natural language, and the result is often confusion, disagreement, manipulation, or time wasting discussions; it's always best to agree (in some certain sort of way) on the exact definitions of key terms before carrying on a discussion, debate, or analysis, even with simple words that traders use often, like accumulation and distribution and consolidation i used to teach courses for those preparing for the LSAT exam, the Law School Admission Test, and deductive logic is a significant part of that exam, which is based on strict, precise definitions of simple words that we are all used to and use every day: and, or, and if ; these words are polysemous in natural language; each word has more than one definition and the diffferent definitions are not logical consistent, so misinterpreting them can be even disastrous or at least cause confusion, heated arguments, and even delusions as a result of false beliefs sideways, consolidation, ranging, chop, crab, rotation (to list a few) are all virtually synonyms for a period of market activity where the price ranges within relatively smaller price range with horizontal support and resistance; these are common terms that most people use for this particular market behavior in the context of technical analysis; this is not polysemy; this is an example of multiple words that share one common definition sometimes, some people call this sideways market structure (or market behavior, however you want to look at or call it) accumulation because (so i've been told) buy and sell orders are being accumulated (whatever that means...); i think this is usually in the context of market structure theory, where it makes some sense, as the market is accumulating trades ("buy and sell orders" as some say) in a sideways, horizontal support/resistance range more often , however, in technical analysis, the word accumulation is used in the sense of buying that often results in upward price action, or as in accumulating an asset (or any trading instrument), such as gold or Rolls Royce stock in building a position or holding in a portfolio (see investopedia definition of accumulation ) sometimes, when the sideways price action breaks and begins to trend up or down, those who use the word accumulation for the sideways market structure may use the word distribution to refer to whatever trend started, whether it's an uptrend or downtrend; they will call that pa trend distribution more often, in technical analysis, distribution is used in the sense of selling that often results in downward price action, or as in distributing an asset (or any trading instrument) to other traders so one take away from what may seem like a long pedantic trip of details (if you are even still reading) is that you may be talking with someone who seems like they are making no sense whatsoever when they say things like "accumulation is always followed by distribution" or "distributions can be either uptrends or downtrends" or "consolidation is always accumulation" at least, remember those simple words that traders use so often accumulation and distribution , have multiple definitions that are not consistent with each other there are common (and very useful) TA indicators named with those words like the ADL (Accumulation/Distribution Line); you need to know which definition is used in titles of those indicators, or you'll be lost in the sauce and... i'll just mention that there are even several other different and common definitions in finance for the the "A" and "D" words too; i'll leave it at that i hope you profited from a EURUSD short last week
Short
by UnknownUnicorn17032407
ETH - diamond top or the beginning of accumulation phase ?Hello, Looking at the ETH post merge can note few observations: 1. We are most probably in a Diamond Top reversal pattern on the 1D chart which is already in play ---> Target: The previous range high right below $1,300. 2. The current price action on the 1D chart looks A LOT similar to the one we had back in the period February-May, 2022. 3. The ETH/USD 1W chart suggest a Wyckoff Distribution #2 is still in play with the price being in Phase D currently. So, we are looking at the following grim scenario 4. But what if we are already in the Accumulation phase ? (bullish case) Well then we are to see something like this Cheers,
by FutureBlockchain
3