Wyckoff Distribution Phase B/C?school.stockcharts.com
As per Wyckoff Distribution Schematic it would seem like BTC is entering Phase C which would be a retest of previous Up Thrust levels, which formed a higher high to the previous UT. Which would mean a retracement to previously supply zones before heading down further to the support area.
However it could also be seen as the current highs at ~$24250 would be the first UT in this distribution event, which would mean BTC is still in the Phase B of the Wyckoff Distribution events.
Either we are in phase B or C, this distribution will only be valid if BTC retraces further to the previous resistance at around ~$21600 to $21800 and further down to break the distribution support.
If BTC manages to turn previous resistance to support with an impulsive move the upside (with volume), then it would probably be a bad idea to play out this distribution event.
This is just an idea which probably has little to no significance to the current event of the btc market. Take it with a pinch of salt and do comment if I missed out any important points with regards to the Wyckoff Distribution events.
Distribution
Wyckoff still playing out on BTCI have only been in the market 18 months, and have tried/tested many indicators. The only one that has remained consistently true up until this day, is the Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1. It hasn't really faltered at all since people started drawing the comparison early 2021. If it remains true, we will hit ATH before the cycle is done, sometime around the end of June. That said, 18 months is not a long time. I just know what I know, and I know Wyckoff has been freaky accurate since I entered the market.
ETH/USD Short Position PropositionEntry: 1/3 of total position size on market price (pullback)
1/3 slightly above the 15m Wyckoff Support line (last point of supply
after sign of weakness)
1/3 with the confirmation breaking swing low (continuation)
Stop Loss: Slightly above Buying Climax
Targets: 1)1257
2)1160
3)1016
ETH/USD Wyckoff Distribution UpdateA simple analysis that matches our yesterday view about Shorting the ETH.
We are now waiting for the breaking of the support line and the pullback, but everything seem to fit.
A shakeout with a good volume is there and the possibility of seeing the schematic completing is high.
Updates will take place until we reach to a position call.
Our idea fits nice with the analysis that is give as a link from @peterbhc :
Bitcoin (BTC) - Range Top Distribution - 22/7/2022 ideaBitcoin is currently struggled to push through todays' resistance at 22650 and puked down to around 22600 which signals heavy selling.
We can also observe some major breaks of bullish structures which adds very strong confluence and probability to this idea.
I'm long bitcoin againI have a few indicators that tell me whenever i should accumulate or distribute.
On the Weekly timeframe:
1. Does my Accumulation/Distribution band show Red or Green.
If Red:
2. Is RSI above 70 and RSI SMA above 50?
3. DISTRIBUTE
If Green:
2. Is RSI under 30 and RSI SMA under 50?
3. Is BTC price +- 80% down from ATH?
4. did 50 & 100 SMA Death cross happen?
5. ACCUMULATE
There is a few more things i take into account but this is the minimun needed that worked in the past and i believe will work again in the future.
For now i'm DCA'ing in slowly untill we see a Death cross on the 50 & 100 SMA AND/OR a drop to -80% from ATH.
If you have any questions feel free to contact me
For Investors in gold nothing shinesI drew a huge channel, it looks like gold has already worked out, the fact that gold has broken ATH is just a bait ..
Should have bought in 1970.
Investors in gold do not shine until 2030. If you buy gold at 1450 you can earn up to 50% in the medium term, but the problem is that at that point you can buy anything and earn at least 50%. Judging by the schedule, there will be no hyperinflation until 2030, you can sleep peacefully and keep your dollars.
Alternatively, strong inflation could be elsewhere, perhaps in commodities. Until they are pumped up, gold will not seriously rise in price. Life will rise in price, but gold will not help you in any way. During this time, all known gold bugs will either die or get acquainted with Mr. Alzheimer, in principle, this is logical. Peter Schiff 60? It's time for him to take profits.
Markdown phase Hey all, I think GCO is in the beginning phases of a markdown phase. It is a retail stock(which I have a very bearish thesis on through year-end). I'm not currently short on this stock, but I would jump at the opportunity to get short should it get back into the high 50's. Considering it ran over 1000% from the pandemic low to its highs, it has a lot of potential room down and is seemingly out of steam. It has over a year's worth of buyers overhead that will look to sell and push down the price as it goes lower and lower; keep an eye on this one as it could move fast to the downside when the time is right. Considering I think the market will bounce in July(ahead of another leg lower), I am hesitant to enter short positions. That being said, I am definitely keeping an eye peeled on this name.
DEERE IN HEADLIGHTSHey guys,
As the other names in the market have been crashing, DE has always stood out to me for how well it has held up to this point. That being said, I do not expect this to hold up for much longer. Starting with basic fundamental analysis, DE is overvalued compared to its historical figures- the stock generally is usually at a single-digit P/E ratio, but currently rests above 16. On a technical analysis basis, the stock is extremely extended to the upside, is fresh off of a false breakout, and has a lot of room down before the year-end. In the immediate term, I expect the stock to hold up through July and maybe even see a little fakeout rally. That being said, I think the stock is entering a markdown phase and should be headed lower in a violent manner by August. This is backed by other distribution patterns in other agriculture names(CF, CAT) and in mutual funds such as MOO. I would not be surprised if this stock saw its pre-pandemic levels before year-end.
Disclaimer: I'm currently short on DE with a cost basis of $388/share and am looking to size up my position
$BTCUSD 1D_tkcross_rangeBitcoin remains range-bound. Distribution. Ichimoku, tkcross is signaling long, short term.
As for downside, 28000.00 is the next bear fractal.
Set targets, stops, alerts and call limit order for the week.
spot/call/limit: 30192.08
tp_01: 32383.96
tp_02: 34322.00
stop: 28605.00
never margin trade. Go well.
DOW JONES SELLING PRESSUREAs illustrated, it would appear that the markup phase is done on the Dow Jones for now as price entered a phase of distribution and broke out. I am anticipating nice selling opportunities for traders but as always manage your money wisely.
Will update as time goes on, stay tuned!
Good Luck.
God Bless!
IWM/RUT Wyckoff Distribution is BACK!?About 3-4 months ago, I mentioned that the Russell 2k was showing signs of distribution (huge consolidation before a downtrend). I outlined where big money was selling and where they flipped short. Since the breakdown, we have seen nearly 3 months of consolidation. One could argue that the consolidation was symmetrical with higher highs and higher lows. That, my friends, would be the makings of a BEAAAAR FLAAAAG. If this bear flag correctly plays out, the target to the downside would be about 170 which is former resistance AND a previous gap. Closing above the previous local high at 205 is probably a good stop out.
ATOM/USD 1D. The situation right now on the coin.#ATOM/USD 1D Binance. Updated the coin idea. I made a "global" analysis and described the situation for you.
Now I will describe it in text here. Pay attention to the interesting name of the coin - COSMOS (ATOM) . Here is an analogy similar to Terra (Luna). I think everything is clear here. The cosmos is big, the Atom is small (the particle that makes up the Cosmos and our material world as a whole). Hyperlink left the project page in CoinMarketCap.
This coin has been in accumulation since 2019 (history from the Binance exchange chart). Accumulation ~ 2 years.
After accumulation, an impulse occurred, the distribution began exactly near the accumulation goal (the average distribution price is the exact accumulation goal). Showed on the graph.
Also note how clearly the price "respected" (that is, reacted) to this level afterwards (a clear retest when breaking the distribution). I also painted it on the chart.
After leaving the accumulation, a large horizontal channel began to form (shown on the chart). Similar to Bitcoin (consolidation/sideways with lower and upper boundaries).
After the distribution in this horizontal channel (shown on the chart - Distribution), the price has clearly reached the goal of this distribution (also displayed on the chart).
An ascending triangle (rising lows and a flat top) was also formed in this large channel, which was subsequently broken down.
If this triangle works out, its goals are shown on the chart.
It is also worth noting that from the minimums of the accumulation, an upward trendline (purple) began to form, which was very jewelerishly broken down just when leaving the accumulation. There was a retest of this trendline.
All this is shown on the chart.
After the breakout and retest of the ascending trendline from the bottom up, a descending trend of the secondary trend began to form (red on the chart, also designated it - the secondary trend line).
If there is a breakdown of this trend - a reversal of the secondary trend to an upward one (breakout + the proof of breakout / retest).
Now the price is consolidating in a small range at the lower border of the large horizontal channel (possibly a repeat as in the summer of 2021). Pay attention to this point on the chart.
The price from the average values of a large accumulation is still at a good profit (now 155% as shown). That is, those who have accumulated are still in the black. Therefore, there is still a place to sell.
Also note that the volume gradually began to appear. And what this volume was at the peak of the fall (capitulation).
Potential levels from below as well as from above are shown on the chart.
Potential Distribution FormingNice BOS on the 10/15m on SPX, if we see this turn into a distribution and continue to fail the highs/break the lows i'll be looking for sells on NAS/US30...
If this is a Sign of weakness now we should get a push down (Tricking the early sellers) before a liquidity hunt up wiping them out before the move continues down... (If this turns out to be a true schematic)
Will probably happen during NYSE open (If it does) Let's see..
* Disclaimer **
These ideas I never trade until the end target with my initial lots, I focused on high probable entries with higher lots and use a specific partial taking strategy giving me a very high win rate and take most of my profits very early, I only leave a small % of my capital to run the entire trade. On the flip side im constantly monitoring LTF momentum and will close early if things change, these analysis's are for research purposes only.