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Distribution

BTC market cycles...Anger or Depression Stage 4? Look up that infamous "Wall Street Cheat Sheet, psychology of a market cycle" diagram The 4th stage is the markdown and downtrend. In the very first cycle it looks pretty textbook where stage 1 is a consolidation box but crypto does crypto things...by the time COVID came the stage 4 into stage 1 is a WIDE and volatile type of consolidation which lead to the 2nd markup to ATHs. This year we have inflation, another macro event! Stage 4 into a theoretical stage 1 could end up doing the same, it's definitely not clear cut or this stage extends further down first before a basing type of consolidation. But...the clue is to watch the 40 ma cross/rejection and what happens on this broadening pattern. A clear cross on the ma and pattern break could signal a new stage 1 (can have intermediate steps) in which a new set of unpredictable and volatile patterns form! Btw this is speculative. I could redraw this as well and this could very well still be gigantic top on stage 3 (like cycle 1 pattern breakdown, this entire top here could also be a larger broadening pattern with a failed breakout) But I am looking at it in terms of smaller cycles and patterns but I will keep updating this analysis on it. *** currently *** 1. bear flag 2. 3rd touch on broadening support bounce 3. price moving towards the 40ma 4. will it swing up to test resistance? 5. what/when/if will the next stage 1 base look like? 6. the last cycle just take notice the wide and sideways 1a/1b I pointed out. 7. last cycle lasted 700d, I duplicated that period of time to current cycle. What if it repeats and it lines up right to where the bear flag could hit (channel upwards) the resistance? 8. the 40 ma cross/reject will be something interesting to watch. ...past performance is not indicative of future results...but sure lines up nice!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by kenloi
Amidst The World's Greatest Beauties Are Its RuinsULTA has been dodging fate for too long, anytime its indicated shorting opp. in 2022 it somehow finds new legs and treads higher. In my charts I use colors in accordance with their interpretation, so I didn't mean to paint this red it just only warranted red drawings, glamour stain tears goes with the pearls.. anyway: - Nasty expanding triangle with Distribution, earnings as a catalyst to finally tank this (it needs a healthy pullback to continue growth over the years, good company, ugly chart) - Bearish Harmonic more noticeable on the daily that indicates potential for pre-earnings run up to low 400s (around 410-413).. This would be ideal entry point for short position, looking at December puts - Very similar setup to ULTA earnings in August 2019 (if you aren't familiar with its chart here is what happened: gap down from 330 to 230 on Earnings miss; this has seasonality based on the business and August report generally under-performs, especially when at reversal point w.r.t. chart structure, such as currently) Expectations: * Gap down following Earnings August 25th to the 295-330 range, followed by dead-cat bounce and continued downside ** Minimum Downside target by December 2022 is 223 *** If things get nasty it could get hit to 67 but I wouldn't bank on this because it will squeeze at some point after 223 #NFA
NASDAQ:ULTAShort
by JerryManders
1
Monthly Bitcoin AnalysisHi, I hope you're doing well. On the monthly chart of Bitcoin and the analysis of its Accumulation/Distribution indicator, we can observe that the slope of the A/D line is showing some potential bottoming. Whenever the slope of EMA and SMA of the line turns positive, we can say the probability of the bitcoin bottom is very high. But all of this depends on the inflation rate of the US. If FOMC announces that the inflation is tamed and the rate goes down for the first time, a market switch could happen. Thanks for your time. Regards, Hashemi.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by rhawshemi
Wyckoff Distribution Phase B/C?school.stockcharts.com As per Wyckoff Distribution Schematic it would seem like BTC is entering Phase C which would be a retest of previous Up Thrust levels, which formed a higher high to the previous UT. Which would mean a retracement to previously supply zones before heading down further to the support area. However it could also be seen as the current highs at ~$24250 would be the first UT in this distribution event, which would mean BTC is still in the Phase B of the Wyckoff Distribution events. Either we are in phase B or C, this distribution will only be valid if BTC retraces further to the previous resistance at around ~$21600 to $21800 and further down to break the distribution support. If BTC manages to turn previous resistance to support with an impulsive move the upside (with volume), then it would probably be a bad idea to play out this distribution event. This is just an idea which probably has little to no significance to the current event of the btc market. Take it with a pinch of salt and do comment if I missed out any important points with regards to the Wyckoff Distribution events.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by harith00
Wyckoff still playing out on BTCI have only been in the market 18 months, and have tried/tested many indicators. The only one that has remained consistently true up until this day, is the Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1. It hasn't really faltered at all since people started drawing the comparison early 2021. If it remains true, we will hit ATH before the cycle is done, sometime around the end of June. That said, 18 months is not a long time. I just know what I know, and I know Wyckoff has been freaky accurate since I entered the market.
Long
by D-Rock_Anomaly
10