What are your thoughts on what's to come for SPX500?I think we're in for a sell to the previous structure high. Obviously a "Counter trend entry" to ride until we return bullish. Just my Thoughts.....What's your opinion?
Thesis: Bearish Bias break and retest (however either play is at hand). Wait for a break and retest
Notes: Every Bull run has had a correction to the previous structure high. Following that trend.
A Retest would be a 50% prz. for the recent move
and right around 23.6% prz for the entire move.
Daily: Bullish, Trading in a minor consolidation for the past few days.
-Reversal pattern with Doji (Loss of momentum) & Bearish Hammer.
-Con: Seller Exhaustion wicks under support
H4: Bullish ( **Hidden Bearish Divergence @ Minor resistance lvl) look for possible sell off
H1: Bullish
Divergence
Give me some energy !!!Bitcoin has completed its 5TH upward wave, and now it's time for a price correction down to around 84k. The price can correct itself and then continue its growth.
every uptrend has to be corrected, that's the nature of the market.
Give me some energy !!
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Dogecoin Primed For Liftoff?! Here I have COINBASE:DOGEUSD on Daily & 1Hr Chart!
A lot of Bullish signs are popping up on all Time-Frames for $DOGEUSD! Let's lay it out:
Daily Chart-
*Price made its Lowest Low @ .0805
*Price has created a Bullish Divergence on the RSI when price was able to make a Higher High @ .1321, disrupting the Downtrend Pattern.
*Fib Retracement Tool from the Lowest Low to Higher High places the Golden Ratio Zone @ ( .1033 - .1002 ) where Price has already Retraced to and is showing Exhaustion from the Bears!
1Hr Chart-
*Zooming into the Golden Ratio Zone, we see Price is exhibiting signs of a Bullish Wedge, potentially in the Reversal Variation!
*Lower Lows on Price creating Bullish Divergence with Higher Lows on RSI
I suspect we will see Price give us a Bullish Break to this Wedge and continue creating Higher Highs/Higher Lows continuing the Uptrend which will then contend with the Resistance Levels:
( .1355 - .1440 )
( .1700 - .1800 )
( .1990 - .2200 )
**If Price gives us a Bearish Break to the Wedge, Be Vigilant to False Breaks testing the .09 cent Support Level & Rising Support
ETHEREUM - Time to buy again!The BINANCE:ETHUSDT is in a ascending triangle now which means the price will increase and also It is expected that the price would at least grow as good as the measured price movement(AB=CD). also a bullish Hidden Divergence (HD+) on MACD which shows Positive Signs for ETH.
Note: we should wait for the breaking of the triangle and than make a move, If the triangle breaks, we expect a new ATH to occur, but in new year.
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
NZD/USD Bullish reversal setup and trade planDivergence Setup:
The RSI shows bullish divergence, where the price is making lower lows, but the RSI is making higher lows. This suggests a potential reversal to the upside.
Trendline Break:
A descending trendline has been drawn connecting lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) on the chart. The recent candle seems to be testing or breaking this trendline, which could signal a reversal if it holds above.
Entry:
A "Buy Limit" order is placed at 0.59820, just below the current price. This suggests waiting for a slight retracement for a better entry point.
Stop Loss:
The Stop Loss is set at 0.59498, below the recent low, aiming to protect the trade if the price moves against the setup.
Take Profit (TP):
TP1 at 0.60140, which is a conservative target.
TP2 at 0.60460, a higher target.
This trade plan is set up for a potential bullish reversal based on RSI divergence, trendline break, and Fibonacci retracement levels. The entry and take profit levels are positioned to capture gains if the price reverses upward, while the stop loss limits downside risk.
What is Divergence?Divergence in trading occurs when the price of an asset moves in the opposite direction of a technical indicator. This mismatch indicates that the momentum behind the price action may be weakening, often suggesting a potential reversal. By learning to spot divergence, traders can anticipate market changes, either as a reversal in trend (regular divergence) or a trend continuation (hidden divergence).
Types of Divergence
Regular Divergence
Hidden Divergence
1. Regular Divergence
Regular divergence is a classic form that suggests a potential trend reversal. It happens when the price action and an oscillator (like RSI or MACD) display conflicting information, often indicating that the current trend may be losing strength.
Types of Regular Divergence:
Bullish Regular Divergence: Occurs when the price makes lower lows, but the indicator makes higher lows. This suggests a potential reversal to the upside as the selling momentum weakens.
Bearish Regular Divergence: Occurs when the price makes higher highs, but the indicator forms lower highs. This indicates potential downside momentum, often preceding a downtrend.
How to Identify Regular Divergence:
Use an oscillator such as the RSI, MACD, or stochastic indicator.
Look for situations where the price action forms new highs or lows, while the oscillator forms opposite lows or highs.
Confirm the trend by observing the price trendlines to determine the type of regular divergence (bullish or bearish).
Trading Regular Divergence:
Bullish Regular Divergence: When you identify bullish regular divergence, consider entering a long position once the price shows signs of reversal, like a bullish engulfing candle or another bullish reversal pattern.
Bearish Regular Divergence: For bearish regular divergence, a short position may be taken once you confirm a bearish reversal pattern, such as a bearish engulfing candle or shooting star formation.
Example:
If the price of a stock is making higher highs but the RSI is making lower highs, this is a bearish regular divergence. You could consider shorting the asset or closing long positions as a precaution, anticipating a potential trend reversal.
2. Hidden Divergence
Hidden divergence indicates potential trend continuation. It suggests that although there may be a pullback, the primary trend will likely resume.
Types of Hidden Divergence:
Bullish Hidden Divergence: Occurs when the price forms higher lows, but the indicator makes lower lows. This pattern signals that the uptrend is likely to continue.
Bearish Hidden Divergence: Occurs when the price makes lower highs, but the oscillator makes higher highs, indicating a potential continuation of a downtrend.
How to Identify Hidden Divergence:
Observe the trend direction of the price. Hidden divergence typically appears during pullbacks in a strong trend.
Use the oscillator (RSI, MACD, etc.) and compare the highs and lows formed by both the price and indicator.
Confirm the pattern: if the price and indicator form opposing highs or lows, it may indicate hidden divergence.
Trading Hidden Divergence:
Bullish Hidden Divergence: Enter a long position after identifying bullish hidden divergence, especially if the primary trend is upwards and the oscillator is showing a lower low.
Bearish Hidden Divergence: A short position can be considered when bearish hidden divergence is identified, and the primary trend is downwards, with the oscillator showing a higher high.
Example:
Suppose an asset’s price makes higher lows in an uptrend, but the RSI makes lower lows. This indicates bullish hidden divergence, suggesting that the pullback might end, and the uptrend is likely to continue. Enter a long position, placing a stop loss below the recent swing low to manage risk.
Indicators Used for Identifying Divergence
Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI measures the strength and speed of price movement, making it ideal for identifying overbought and oversold conditions.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): MACD tracks the difference between two moving averages of the price and can be used to detect shifts in momentum.
Stochastic Oscillator: This oscillator helps detect potential turning points by comparing the closing price to the range over a set period.
Each of these indicators helps identify divergence differently. For example:
If RSI or Stochastic is diverging from price action, it may indicate that momentum is waning.
MACD can be useful to spot both regular and hidden divergences, especially on larger timeframes.
How to Trade Divergence
Confirm Divergence: Use divergence to identify a potential reversal or continuation pattern, but confirm it with additional signals such as candlestick patterns or volume analysis.
Set Entry Points: Wait for a price action signal (e.g., a candlestick pattern) in the direction indicated by the divergence. A bullish divergence might signal a buying opportunity after a bullish candlestick, while a bearish divergence could indicate a selling opportunity after a bearish pattern.
Use Stop Loss Orders: Place a stop loss slightly below or above recent highs or lows to manage risk. For example, in bullish divergence, place a stop loss below the swing low to protect against downside risk.
Set Profit Targets: Use support and resistance levels, Fibonacci retracement levels, or moving averages to set profit targets.
Tips for Successful Divergence Trading
Combine with Other Indicators: Use moving averages or trendlines to confirm the overall trend direction.
Choose Longer Timeframes for Stronger Signals: Divergence on longer timeframes (e.g., daily or weekly) tends to produce stronger signals than shorter timeframes (e.g., 15-minute or hourly).
Don’t Trade Divergence in Choppy Markets: Divergence is more effective in trending markets. Avoid using divergence in low-volume or range-bound conditions, as it could result in false signals.
Stay Aware of False Signals: Not all divergences result in profitable trades. Always use risk management tools, such as stop losses and position sizing, to minimize potential losses.
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✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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USDJYP - Technical Analysis [Short Setup]🔹 USDJYP Analysis on 4H chart
- The current Trend is BULLISH
- There is BEARISH divergences
- Reversal pattern is present which is rising wedge
🔹 Trade Plan For 1HR
- Entry Level = 149.093
- Stop Loss = 149.656
- TP1 = 148.545
- TP2 = 147.982
- TP3 = 147.397
🔹 Risk Management
- First TP is 1:1
- Second TP is 1:2
- Third TP is 1:3
🔹 How to Take Trade?
- Only risk 2% of your portfolio
- Take 1% risk entry with 1:1 RR
- Take 1% risk entry with 1:2 RR
- Take 1% risk entry with 1:3 RR
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EUR/USD Long Counter-Trend Setup (4H/8H Timeframes)I’m looking at a long counter-trend trade on EUR/USD based on several technical confluences across multiple timeframes.
Market Sentiment: Currently, risk sentiment is “risk-off,” which has pushed the dollar higher, but now we’re seeing signs of a potential reversal in both EUR/USD and the Dollar Index (DXY).
Key Observations:
Engulfing Candles on the Daily Timeframe:
Both EUR/USD and DXY have printed engulfing candlestick patterns on the daily chart. This could signal a potential reversal, with the momentum shifting in favor of EUR/USD.
Monthly 20 MA:
The 20 MA on the monthly chart is being tested on both EUR/USD and DXY, adding to the importance of the levels we’re currently observing. A bounce or break here could trigger significant moves in either direction.
5 EMA Hit Probability:
On the weekly timeframe, the 5 EMA lines up with my 4H target. Historically, if a session doesn’t hit the 5 EMA, the next one has a higher probability of doing so, something to be mindful of as we approach the weekly close.
Divergence on Multiple Timeframes:
MACD divergence is present on the 4H and 8H timeframes for EUR/USD, suggesting weakening downside momentum. Additionally, there’s a bearish divergence on DXY and a bullish divergence on EXY (Euro Index), further supporting the case for EUR/USD upside.
Conclusion:
With the alignment of these factors—candlestick patterns, moving averages, and divergences—this setup presents a solid opportunity for a long counter-trend trade on EUR/USD. While it’s a counter-trend trade, the confluences from multiple timeframes increase the probability of success. Keep in mind that this trade is aligned with technical signals and risk sentiment, so proper risk management is essential.
A Full Scope View of The Magnificent 7Today, we look at the Mag 7 via the following methods.
MAC (Moving Average Channel).
Valuation with Trend.
High Timeframe Divergence.
To summarize, overall, these markets are generally bullish. I outline areas of interest where I will be looking for trades to the long side.
Have a great weekend.
ASML (ASML): Massive Sell-Off - What's next after the $50B loss?We are sure you’ve heard about ASML’s massive drop yesterday, erasing $50 billion in market value within hours following a technical error and the earnings report published a day earlier. ASML, Europe's most valuable tech company and a critical supplier to chipmakers, is now facing doubts—not about its long-term prospects but regarding short-term sales and whether it can continue to outperform the market in the long term.
As always, we’re not focused on intraday trades but are looking for bigger, high-risk-to-reward swing trade setups. To assess this, we’re turning to the Weekly chart to analyze ASML’s most important levels. Our most likely scenario at this point is that the All-Time High represents a wave B, after exactly respecting the 138% Fibonacci extension level. Coupled with the bearish divergence on the RSI, this pullback was expected.
While it's difficult to predict the exact point of reversal, we see $600 as a major psychological support level that could hold in the short term. To reverse the current downtrend, ASML must break above the resistance zone of $850–$895. However, as this is a potential wave ((ii)), even reaching the All-Time High is not out of the question. Merely reclaiming this resistance zone might not be enough to signal a trend change.
We’re keeping an eye on all major support zones, but the largest position we plan to open would be between $250 and $140. While this is still far off, and there will likely be opportunities along the way, this zone would provide the most textbook setup according to Elliott Wave Theory. The recent dip has also opened up more potential plays for the future.
Stay tuned as we monitor the situation for further developments! 🔥
EUR/USD Potential long trade setup (4H)I am looking a long opportunity on EUR/USD.
There is a clear bullish RSI divergence found and suggesting me potential upside,
My entry is placed at 1.10218,
Targeting 1.11631 (TP-1) and 1.13100 (TP-2)
Stop loss set at 1.08778.
The risk to reward ratio is favorable and i am expecting a bounce from current levels.
i will wait for price action confirmation before entering following the trend reversal signs from divergence.
Best of Luck
ETH - The Bullish & Bearish CaseToday we take a look at ETH and lay out a variety of trade ideas.
MONTHLY: From the Monthly perspective, ETH remains very Bullish. Essentially, going long ETH anywhere at or below the low of the Monthly MAC is a legitimate spot to buy. The target based on the Monthly chart is around 3,400 (approximately 30% above current price level). From an investment perspective, this is a great area to go long ETH.
WEEKLY: From the Weekly perspective, ETH remains Bearish, as we have not had a confirmed bullish trend change. Right now, ETH is trading at the Weekly MAC high, which is a legitimate place to look for new short entries, or to take profits from any longs taken at recent weekly lows. There is currently H6 bearish divergence setup, but not triggered. If it triggers, I will be shorting ETH to a target of the Weekly MAC low (2,337).
DAILY: From the Daily perspective, ETH remains Bearish. However, we are getting a potential bullish trend change (but not triggered/confirmed). There is H1 bearish divergence setting up right now, and if it triggers, the short trade target would be the Daily MAC low at 2,421.
As you can see, if you are an investor, the current price levels are reasonable areas to load up to the long side. However, the Weekly and Daily are still bearish until bullish confirmation. Daily is in the process of confirming bullish, but not yet. Day trades and shorter term swing trades to the short side are still valid.
Have a great week.
Short setup on SPXThe SPX has experienced a significant bull run, reaching just below $5700, but is now showing clear signs of weakness, suggesting a potential short setup.
Since mid-July, the SPX has been moving sideways and is now nearly flat at its all-time high. However, the RSI Exhaustion at the bottom of the chart has significantly declined and hasn't recovered much, establishing a downtrend.
This divergence between the price and the RSI Exhaustion is the first major signal of a possible short configuration.
Three additional signs support this setup:
The RSI Exhaustion shows bullish exhaustion (indicated in green), signaling that further price increases are unlikely.
The price has formed a top at its all-time high, as identified by the Bottoms Tops Signal indicator.
A new major resistance level has recently formed, as indicated by the Levels and Zones indicator. While this level could potentially turn into support if the price breaks above it, for now, it remains a resistance, exerting downward pressure on the price.
Is the bull run over? Only time will tell, but for now, it's crucial to remain patient and always seek confirmation from the indicators.
BITCOIN → Bullish Pressure !!!
As I mentioned in my previous analysis, Bitcoin experienced a good rise after breaking out of the wedge and is now near the top of the megaphone. Currently, it is in an ascending triangle, but we can't be sure about it yet. Additionally, on the MACD, we have a hidden bullish divergence, which alone is a bullish signal.
previous analysis
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard .💚
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
How to REALLY Trade Divergences (One of My Favorite Entries)This tutorial might be short, but it is packed with potent information on how to REALLY trade divergences.
Divergences are one of the BEST ways to catch market reversals. However, from what I have seen, most people do not have a real process for determining when a divergence is actually confirmed/triggered, and then how to determine targets based on the divergence setup.
In other words, most people don't have a plan for trading divergence.
This video will give you a full plan (Setup/Trigger/Follow Through) for trading divergences.
I give full credit to Jake Bernstein, as this is a concept that I learned from him. He is one of the all time greats, and very worth your time to check out.
I hope you found this video insightful.
Have a great week.
15% to 35% Upside Ahead for Corn (Divergence Strategy)Corn recently has had the monthly bullish divergence confirmed with Septembers monthly close. This has major implications for corn, as I anticipate corn to now trade up at least 15% from current prices, up to a max move of approximately 35%. Monthly divergence triggers such as this are signals that the prudent trader must pay attention to. This does not mean I anticipate this market to go straight up from here. However, it does mean that, in my opinion, dips are for buying in the Corn market until we reach these upside targets.
Have a great week.
15% to 30% Upside Ahead for Soybean Meal (Divergence Strategy)Soybean Meal recently confirmed the monthly bullish divergence with Septembers candle close. This is a significant signal that prudent traders should pay close attention to. What this signal implies is that there is a minimum 15% move to the upside from current price ahead for Soybean Meal. The high end target is a 30% upside move. This does not mean this market is going to go straight up from here. In my opinion, dips are for buying in the Soybean Meal market until we reach these upside targets.
Have a great week.