Divergence
FOMC Economic Projections Effect on GoldOANDA:XAUUSD
**Repost from Dec 14th 2022 since the original post disappeared**
Hello all TradingView speculators,
In my opinion, I think there was an overreaction from the market's participation on the CPI numbers that was announced to be lower than expected. In addition to this, some technical indicators are showing us some signals to be careful on the buy side from bearish divergence signal between the price and RSI on 4H timeframe. This indication does not mean that the trend will reverse immediately but it indicates that the current trend has chances of stopping and turn into either sideway or downtrend in short term.
Based on the current price level, Risk to Reward Ratio seems to be in favor of the bears. However, I would wait to see the price action in 1H timeframe tries to test 1815 first and if it fails then I believe that follow sell position after this price action fails to go above 1815 and if price makes a lower low below 1804 can be a worthy trade
What Is the Best Divergence Trading Strategy? 👑 What Is Divergence?
Divergence is a trading phenomenon that offers reliable and high-quality information regarding trading signals. It refers to when an asset’s price moves in the opposite direction to the momentum indicators or oscillators. Commonly used indicators include the relative strength index (RSI), stochastic oscillator, Awesome Oscillator (AO), and moving average convergence divergence (MACD).
Divergence is one of the many concepts that experienced traders use to the time when to enter or exit the market. To say a divergence occurs is to say that the price and momentum are out of sync. This signals that the market is preparing for a trend reversal or pullback, but it does not necessarily guarantee trend directions.
There are mainly two types of divergence:
1) Regular divergence is where the price signal creates higher highs or lower lows while the indicator makes lower highs or higher lows respectively.
2) Hidden divergence, which is the opposite of regular divergence, is where the indicator makes higher highs or lower lows while the price action creates lower highs or higher lows respectively.
Regular Divergence vs. Hidden Divergence
What Is Regular Divergence?
Regular divergence can be divided into two types: regular bearish divergence and regular bullish divergence.
What is Regular Bearish Divergence?
Regular bearish divergence occurs when the price action makes successively higher highs while the indicator makes consecutively lower highs. This suggests that the asset’s price is preparing for a reversal into a downtrend. The indicator signal means that the momentum is changing. Even though the price action has made higher highs, the uptrend may be weak. In this scenario, traders should get ready to go short, i.e., to sell the asset and repurchase it later at a lower price.
What is Regular Bullish Divergence?
Regular bullish divergence happens when the price action forms progressively lower lows while the indicator creates higher lows. This implies that the prices will move in an upward trend soon. The indicator action implies that the price needs to catch up with the indicator signal and that the downtrend is weak. In this scenario, traders should get ready to go long, i.e., to buy the asset.
How to Trade Regular Divergence?
Divergence only tells traders that the momentum of a price movement is weakening. This does not necessarily lead to a strong reversal, and the price movement may just be entering a sideways trend (horizontal price movement within a stable range). To create a more reliable divergence trading strategy, skilled traders combine indicators with various tools. Regular bullish divergence and regular bearish divergence have different entry rules. In any case, once a trader has spotted a divergence, they should consider how to enter or exit the market and place their Stop Loss or Take Profit orders.
What’s a hidden divergence?
Divergences not only signal a potential trend reversal but can also be used as a possible sign for a trend continuation (price continues to move in its current direction).
Hidden bullish divergence happens when the price is making a higher low (HL), but the oscillator is showing a lower low (LL).
Hidden Bearish Divergence occurs when price makes a lower high (LH), but the oscillator is making a higher high (HH).
Keep in mind that regular divergences are possible signals for trend reversals while hidden divergences signal trend continuation.
Regular divergences = signal possible trend reversal
Hidden divergences = signal possible trend continuation
Conclusion
Trading divergence can be very profitable if traders can reliably identify divergence by making use of the trading tools in their arsenal. However, like all trading strategies, using divergence indicators involves a certain degree of risk. [
GOING SHORT IN NZDUSD BY TRADING STRATEGYBullish Indications
1. Higher Highs and Lows
2. 8 out of 12 years December remains bullish
3. Trend is bullish on 1D TF
Bearish Indications
1. Shooting Start at Higher High
2. Broken Trendline
3. Bearish Divergence on 4H and 1D
4. Price is exactly bounced back from the previous rally LH
5. Trend is mature enough
Seasonal Data
Dec 10 => Green
Dec 11 => Red
Dec 12 => Green
Dec 13 => Green
Dec 14 => Red
Dec 15 => Green
Dec 16 => Red
Dec 17 => Green
Dec 18 => Red
Dec 19 => Green
Dec 20 => Green
Dec 21 => Green
How a possible tradeplan could look like #BTCHi @everyone,
In this chart we explain how we could enter a trade if this scenario will occur.
Its used for educational content (but based on a real plan) to show how to create a plan on a possible scenario.
Always think a few steps ahead, its just like playing chess. Its not given that this scenario will play out but,,, : if this happen then we know how to anticipate.
We should wait for conformation (divergence), if no divergence? Then wait till 2nd conformation, if we missed out? Then wait for 3th oppertunity to enter the position.
Trading without having a plan, is like driving without hands on the wheel. It can go good for a while, but 100% for sure u will fail.
Cheers,
Team Quantistic
BTC short TradingplanHi @everone,
i Added on top of previous chart i would like to share some pattern wavecouts on top of it.
rule nr 1 : never short at a potential wave D ( this is often a huge trap) same for an falling wedge, its exact the opposite.
rule nr 2 : now how to count your waves, you want to spot a 5 wave structure with higher highs and higher lows with an apex wich is declining. the first wave needs to be inpulsive and may not made an lower low. This would inval your wave count for an wedge.
rule nr 3 : ONLY enter if you spotted an valid wave E with some bearish divergence on top of it!
Everyone nows what is an wedge..
But almost no one seems to knows how to really trade them.
Enjoy your new set of rules,
If u found this valueble please put your comment below, Thanks!
Goodluck,
Team Quantistic
GOING SHORT IN EURUSDBullish Indications
1. Lower Highs and Lows
2. Taking Support from trendline
Bearish Indications
1. 0.382 fib support on 1D TF
2. Bearish Divergency on 2H and 4H TF
I anticipated taking a short position against the trend because it already defined HH and it will retrace back to define new HL
Neutral trend in VET and a small RSI divergence - Short TermHello friends, I hope you have a good week ahead. In this analysis, I expect a short-term upward swing in VETUSDT because of RSI Divergence, which has moved up to the EMA to begin with, and looks like it will return to previous support. Because the main trend is neutral at the moment, but the EMAs are going down. what is your opinion?
In the long term, I only see the price decrease in this coin.
GOING SHORT in AUDUSD BY TRADING STARTEGYBearish Indications
1. Lower Highs and Lows
2. Three Black Crows on LH
3. Significance Resistance and support area
4. Head n Shoulder Reversal Pattern
5. 0.6591 and 0.66903 fib levels restest on 1D TF
6. Significance Bearish Divergence
Bullish Indications
1. December Remains positive for the last 3 years
There are more bearish indications so I will open a short position by managing proper risk/reward which is 3% of my portfolio
S&P 500 appears to be in a bottoming processThere's been many bullish divergence + higher low patterns happening on the daily chart of the S&P 500 leading to bear market rallies. It is now happening on the weekly chart which could suggest something more than just a bear market rally and instead an actual rally that leads to a bull market. To confirm the weekly bullish divergence, we want to see a higher low form in addition to the divergence, possibly around the 3600-3700 level.
However, it is important to note that the market can actually make a new low and this pattern could still be in play except instead of having a low + lower low in price and a low + higher low on the MACD, you would have a low + lower low + lower low in price and a low + higher low + higher low in the MACD. If a higher low is unable to form this time around, I would suspect we would see the next low around the bottom 2, green dashed lines.
AUDJPY Potential Long PositionPlease give me some feedback and let me know what you think.
Multi time frame Analysis
1D time frame price is trading in a range and reacted to the Supply Zone giving a Long Bias
4H time frame price breakout of Demand Zone giving a Long Bias
1H time frame price is signaling a Bearish Divergence (I am interoperating this as a corrective/retracement move) and reset at zone to give a Long Bias
Setup and Entry
Wait for price to retrace back to 0.50 - 0.168 Fib zone and bounce off 50EMA to go Long
Silvergate daily bullish divergence. Silvergate looks primed for a bounce. with cryptos recent relative strength i think $SI will outperform soon, daily bullish div with momentum on the AO trending positive. looks good to me, tell me what you guys think,
📉✌BTC 2H Long Position✌📈BINANCE:BTCUSDT
COINBASE:BTCUSD
Hello traders, first take a look at my previous analysis and positions.
💥Until price is above yellow area, you can open long positions in two steps.
The optimum stop-loss is below the determined level.
If the price closes Its 4h candle above ascending trendline, the uprising trend can go higher than 16900 to 17000.
Please share ideas and leave a comment,
let me know what's your idea.
CrazyS✌
I speak the occult (just sell)Hello to all friends !
The opposite chart shows a head and shoulders pattern, which of course is better seen in the daily time frame.
Based on this pattern and the negative divergence of the ao indicator, it is clear that the price of gold will drop to $1670.
So be careful not to get hurt.
Don't forget to like...
NKE - Could have bottomed?NKE tested bounced off a longer term horizontal support zone ($99 - $103) several times in the last 3 months and is now trading within a symmetrical wedge pattern. This could be both a continuation or reversal pattern depending on which side it broke out eventually.
However, I suspect the eventual break will be more likely to the upside as the resistence turned support zone ($99-$103) has been holding up in the past few months, plus a bullish divergence can be seen in the monthly chart.
Earnings expected on 29 Sep AMC. Guess we'll know by then where it is heading!
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
Did BTC bottom out? Probably YES!Dear traders,
It appears like BTC is forming a bottom here. There is strong Bullish Divergence (blue thick lines) formed on 1W timeframe. It is fiddling with EMA-100 on Monthly TF. It has already broken the resistance trendline (purple line) in Oct-22 and gave the retouch in the week of 7th Nov. The price is forming a falling wedge which is again bullish reversal pattern. I expect BTC to breakout above 18K and "RISE" in the new year. Then there's nothing stopping it till 29K-32K range. We visit the charts again there.
In alternate scenario, it may trade sideways narrowing the trading range. However, I don't think it will invalidate the current formations entirely. It may dip towards ~12K and come back up giving a long wick followed by continued sharp upward move . But the dip must be in next couple of weeks for this bull story to remain intact. If not then it will drop slowly towards 8K range and it will be Q2-2023 before we see any hopes of reversal.
Good luck.
SPX 500 Divergence + Area of resistance = Trade opportunityIn past couple of weeks and months there were so many divergences in daily chart of SPX500, one of them is in progress and at the resistance. If the volumes spikes that will be the confirmation of downward movement of SPX500 for couple of days.
GOOG - Tide could be turningGOOG's monthly chart formed a bullish divergence and closed with a bullish "pin bar" in November. We are likely to see more upside momentum for this month, although it could pause and consolidate when it hits the near term horizontal resistence around 104-105, then may (or may not) dip back towards 93 (recently pivot low), before eventually breaking higher.
Immediately support is currently at 93. Turn cautious if it dips below here.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!