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Divergence

TSLA - due for a bounce soonTSLA is now at a longer term horizontal support zone (168-180), after having retraced 61.8% of it's major AB upswing that had begun in March 2020(see monthly chart). A short term bounce looks to be due as we are now seeing a bullish divergence between price and RSI on it's daily chart, but whether this is "THE" low remains to be seen as the overall trend is still down at the moment. Having said that, the chance that it is bottoming is higher should we start seeing more of the FAANG stocks pivoting. Can only wait and see. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Juliac
4
DJI/ SPX - expect near term volatilityWith FOMC uncertainty coming up this week, and the indices hitting into near term trendline resistence, some volatility will not be surprising in the next few days. Among the 3 indices, DJI has been the strongest of late. On the monthly timeframe, we can see a few rather bullish signs: 1. a "tweezer bottoms" 2. bullish engulfing candlestick 3. bullish divergence between price and RSI playing out. However, divergences usually translate into just a short term reversal (lasting 1-3 candlesticks) and may not be a longer term trend reversal. Still, when seen on a monthly chart, this could mean 1-3 months of "upside"). A pullback at this junction is not unexpected but what is important is to watch for the amount of pullback. Any pullback that within 50% fibonacci retracement of it's recent strong upswing AB is within "acceptable" limits. However, anything is possible. Let's see how it will play out this week especially after FOMC this Wednesday. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
TVC:DJI
by Juliac
11
Sell the news ? banksters overbought BTC before CME, what now ? comments under the first chart : BTCUSD As stated on "some grey eminences making too much money" I d just say "some banksters got in BTC, and they overbought, too much. now they will give the option to their customers. www.coindesk.com Banksters are well know to bet against their customers . . . the next few days could bring surprises. My personal chart ( uk.tradingview.com ) , with personal god mode settings, is shouting "WARNING" : I m not telling anyone to short bitcoin, shorting bitcoin is dangerous . . . but . . . perhaps you want to reduce your exposure, have some fiat and serious altcoins ( ZEC is a good bet imo ) ready to rebuy BTC lower ( targets : 16k, 12k , 8500 here )
B
by neofutur
68
Resistance Levels Where AMD Could Fail in a Bear RallyPrimary Chart: Bollinger Bands (Yellow Shaded Volatility Channel) with Fibonacci Levels, Downward TL and VWAPs 1. As discussed earlier this month, AMD remains in a severe downtrend at the primary degree of trend. This means that the path of least resistance on higher time frames remains lower unless and until AMD can do a substantial amount of price work and recover into the mid $80s (the area of the downward trendline shown on the Primary Chart) and preferably the $100.60 level (the .50 retracement of the 2020-2022 rally). Supplementary Chart A: AMD's Linear Regression Channel Reflects Severe Downtrend 2. In every trend, however, corrective retracements and mean reversions will occur. In a downtrend, market participants commonly attempt to pick bottoms especially in former market leaders and darlings—and when this bottom-picking is combined with heavy short positioning that requires covering when major downside moves exhaust, ferocious bear rallies ensue. On October 11, 2022, SquishTrade prepared the following chart showing some of the powerful bear rallies that have occurred since November 30, 2022 (all-time high date): Supplementary Chart B: Percentage Gains for Bear Rallies in AMD Since All-Time High 3. The VWAP anchored to the all-time high on November 30, 2022, shown on the Primary Chart, reveals that the downtrend at the primary degree of trend remains in effect. The lower highs and lower lows on daily and weekly charts support this conclusion, and the downward trendline—also shown on the Primary Chart in orange—has not been broken. Price remains significantly below both the orange downward TL and the all-time-high VWAP, showing the profound weakness in this former market leader. 4. Price has even fallen beneath the April 2018 anchored VWAP (shown in red on the Primary Chart above) having a price value of $61.95 on October 20, 2022. AMD's rapid decline since August 4, 2022 peaks appears to have stalled just after breaking below this VWAP. This 4.5 year VWAP provides strong near-term resistance at $61.95. This level of interest should be monitored during any bear rally and on any subsequent decline. Price may rally and whipsaw above it during a mean reversion only to fail and slice back below it. 5. Price has fallen beneath the .786 and .618 retracements of the entire rally from the Covid 2020 lows. These levels are at $64.08 and $85.54 respectively. This is significant because it reflects the strength of this downtrend. Any bear rally will meet strong resistance when rising back to these levels. Before considering these levels as resistance however, price must first break above the April 2018 VWAP (about $61-$62), and the 21-day EMA at about $63.31 as of October 20, 2022. Until the 21-day EMA and the April 2018 VWAP are reclaimed ($61-$63 approximately, the higher retracement levels remain irrelevant. 6. Some evidence of downside exhaustion appears on AMD's charts. These suggest that a short-covering and FOMO-driven rally may occur in the coming weeks between now and year end. SquishTrade hinted at this possibility recently with the following chart, showing how AMD was approaching the bottom of its downtrend channel: Supplementary Chart C: October 11, 2022, Post Showing Higher Risk For Shorts Near Downtrend-Channel Support 7. On AMD's daily chart, RSI now shows a positive divergence despite price making lower lows. This is further evidence that shorts should be cautious and wary of a bear rally or, at a minimum, choppy action over the next few weeks. Supplementary Chart D: RSI Positive Divergence on Daily Chart 8. The Bollinger Bands also suggest that the downward price move from August 4, 2022, swing highs may be nearing exhaustion. Note how the bands (set at two standard deviations) are contracting now, which suggests either chop or mean reversion in the coming days or weeks. The %B indicator in the subgraph also shows weakening downside price action. As price made lower lows over the past two months, the %B indicator made higher lows. This reflects that price moves were less powerful even though they made lower lows on the main price chart—when price cannot pierce the bands as deeply with each subsequent low, and when price eventually cannot even tag the band with a new low in October 2022, this shows price may be ready to consolidate or mean revert. Supplementary Chart E: Bollinger Bands Signaling Exhaustion and Temporary Pause in Downtrend 9. For anyone trying to catch the bear rallies, watch out for false breakouts above resistance as discussed in the following linked post, showing a false breakout this month above a shorter-term trendline. When the primary trend is down, countertrend moves can be challenging and tricky, so tight stops make sense. Supplementary Chart F: False Breakout above Resistance—Example from October 6, 2022 ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:AMD
by SquishTrade
23
When a divergence isn't a divergence and price winsA fellow trader here on Trading View needed some help with a trade he is taking. Commonly when an RSI makes a new LOW and price makes an opposing HIGH this is called a "Bearish Divergence" When this happens, its expected that price will follow and make new Lows or start moving down. But what happens when price continues to move up? Why would it go against the momentum of the all mighty RSI? How is it possible that price can reject what the RSI wants to do? Well the answer is VOLUME and who is in control of it. The Bulls or the Bears...and whomever is in control, will always win. In this video you'll see something else to look out for when trading divergences so you can predicts which way price will breakout.
Education
by CoffeeshopCrypto
5
DJI - testing near term resistence soonDJI is now above both it's 200day MA as well as an intermediate trendline resistence. However, we are seeing bearish divergence between price and RSI on DJI's daily chart and with near term horizontal resistence coming up @ 34100-34300, we could have some pullback when it reaches there. Fibonacci retracements of 23.6% to 50% of it's most recent swing up will still be "acceptable" for the bulls and does not mean the market has turned bearish (unless we have a deeper pullback). I suspect the low we saw in early Oct (28660) is "The" Low of this bear market as we saw a "tweezer bottom" / bullish engulfing candle on the monthly chart. Signals on the longer time frame (ie the "Bigger Picture") will be more powerful than on the shorter timeframe. However, there is always the fear that FED could step in to brake any further upside, hence expect market to still be volatile and could also trade in a wide sideway range for a while (weeks/months?) before we can see the 200day MA flatten out and then start can turn up. Meanwhile, DJI's further upside could slow down while Nasdaq begin to take leadership. As long as Nasdaq is taking the lead then the overall market will still be in a more bullish rather than bearish mood. Take one swing at a time. Have stops in place in case one is wrong. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
TVC:DJI
by Juliac
4
NVIDIA Corporation Technical AnalysisAfter a drop of little over 60% in the past year, NVIDIA has created a bullish divergence on a previous support line. 1 Year analyst targets according to Tradingview is $202/share, which constitutes roughly a 60% price increase from current price. My plan for NVIDIA as of right now is a swing trade earning to make anywhere from 30-50% in the next couple of months, I don't see the stock price falling drastically more as of right now, according to the fundamentals we have seen a drop quite consistently with the drop we have seen thus far reflected in the stock price. I'm looking to take profit around the previous high of $190/share, most likely liquidating my position at $185/share, netting a total of +47% ROI from today's price. If NVIDIA were to drop further, (although I don't see it dropping below $100/share without the help of external factors) I still think NVIDIA is a solid company as well as they have a major market share in the computer technology sector, and I will most likely retain my position were the price to drop further, although this would have to depend on a revision of my current analysis. Summary: NVIDIA created a divergence on previous support on 4H chart. Entry price: $125/share Target price: $185/share Long-term holding possible if swing trade does not turn out as expected, granted fundamentals does not change. Disclaimer: It might not be a bad idea to conduct a qualitative analysis of the computer sector if you want to follow my trade as there is a lot of external factors happening in the world that might affect the result of this trade.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by DonBboy
1
3 Step Divergence Trading strategy. When to use the RSI Formula.This is a divergence trading strategy i am testing out for you guys who are still having trouble knowing WHEN to enter a trade after finding a divergence as well as where to exit that trade. This will also give you more information on the followings: Where to use the RSI FORMULA. When to enter a trade after a divergence. What a fake out looks like. Where to take profit Where to take a second profit Drop your feedback if you would like to see this strategy develop further and if you understand its simplicity enough.
by CoffeeshopCrypto
18
Big Election Week Move Imminent For S&P500On October 27th in my previous idea I mentioned that we would keep an eye on SPX as we suspected that a move was coming due to the large bullish divergence spotted on the weekly RSI indicator and a move did indeed occur in swift fashion. But was that just the beginning of a potential wave in the market that is going to either send this market back down into the doldrums? Or is this going to be the beginning of testing higher prices so that an upward trend may finally begin to form? The S&P500 has not made a significant higher high in price in well over a year. Yet, with that being said, there also hasn't been as nice a potential setup on the chart as this.. until now. Monday's close could be the beginning of this major move as we see on the chart that the price action closed, JUST ABOVE a key area of resistance.. that being 3804. What to look for now would be full body candle closes above this price level. Preferably green full body candle closes. Which is why tomorrow as well as this week in general will be very interesting. If prices begin to hold on both the daily and weekly above this 3804 level, a potential rally to a zone of 4155 and 4311 would ensue. This would be my personal level of interest to be getting out of longs. These 2 prices are the 50% and 618 fibonacci levels. And as such, these would be very high likely areas where other fibonacci traders would be looking to sell. So on the chart, I show these as being the areas in which I would trade out of this setup due to the rules of which fibonacci retracement dictates. Also, keep in mind that 4000 could still be a major area of resistance. This area is not discouraging but it could be a level that price action must spend time testing before the rally can continue once and if this level is hit. In the meantime, keep an eye on where the market opens and closes tomorrow. The weekly bullish divergence on the chart has likely not yet finished playing out, and Monday's close could be the pin perfect price to catch this wave that I suspect is just in the beginning. DISCLAIMER: This is commentary of my own personal observations and ideas. Please do your own research and invest responsibly. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
SP:SPXLong
by TradeVibez