DXYHi all,
DXY is in parabolic trend and cash is king.
9 WEMA holding like a hero so no many reason to be bearish until now.
However a bearish divergence can slow the parabolic trend.
If DXY slows down we can see the markets pumpin' for short term.
The BTC and crypto can also see a bear market pump.
What do you think?
Divergence
Falling Wedge- Bullish- Keeping a close eye on CRM here as its finally starting to break out of this falling wedge it's been holding for quite some time now. Big increase in buyer volume relative to seller volume as shown on the RSI with some slight bullish divergence on the daily timeframe, and some more bullish divergence on the weekly timeframe (See Attached Chart Below).
- CRM closed out the week reclaiming its 20-Day SMA while also testing the upper trend line on the falling wedge it's been holding. On top of all that, CRM's EMAs are starting to curl upwards, with multiple gaps to fill on the upside heading into earnings, all signs pointing towards a breakout.
- Bullish and will be looking for a breakout from this wedge (Broader Market Conditions Permitting)- Just some support and resistance levels to watch along with some RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime
--Weekly chart & Price Targets Attached Below--
PT1- $192.54
PT2- $196.23
PT3- $202.72
PT4- $205.18 +
--Weekly Timeframe--
Mon 8th Aug 2022 EUR/JPY Daily Forex Chart Buy SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a EUR/JPY Buy. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
Lets Talks Divergence! Short BTC/USD !!Lets Talks Divergence! Short BTC/USD !!
Note: This Post is for Educational Purpose only.
Trade after doing your own analysis.
Oscillators are the great tools to look for divergence. Divergence shows the Fall or Rise in Momentum of The Strength. In other words, the Divergence occurs when Oscillators show the opposite picture than the Price Action. Divergence can indicate the change in Trend Before it Happens therefore it is an essential part of my Trading.
In the case of Bitcoin, the trend is Bullish and the Price Action shows Rising Trend but the Oscillators below (RSI and Chaikin) seems to be Falling.
Trade Plan:
Indicators are highlighting Bearish Divergence but the Divergence alone is not enough to take the Short Call. Adding another Strong Confluence I can find is the Resistance, Bitcoin is not able to Break the 24,000 - 24,500 Zone (Highlighted in Red), which shows that the Bears take over at this zone. Strong Resistance with Bearish Divergence on Daily Time-frame are the Strong Confluences which can result in Good Profitable Trade of 1:5 Risk to Reward.
Stop loss:
It is placed where the Price is Least Likely to go.
Target:
It is set in accordance with Fib Retracement and the last point where BTCUSD started Bullish Trend.
Time Frame: Daily
Indicators used:
RSI & Chaikin
Analysis based on:
- Market Structure
- Price Action
- Divergences
- Support & Resistance
Disclaimer;
Trading is never 100%. This post is for education only.
DO NOT Trade without doing your Own Analysis.
Bullish Divergence USDJPYBullish divergence appearing on USDJPY. Yen should appreciate, hit some resistance then continue up to around the $140 level. Also Japan is geographically closer to China which has been acting erratically in terms of military action. China is also Japans largest trading partner so they would be hit hard by war in western pacific, moreso than US.
S&P500 - Downside incomingCAPITALCOM:US500
On average during a bear market we see the S&P rally around 17% and we are currently sitting around 15%.
For me with the fundamental outlook in the back of my mind, once we come up and take out this high, I think much more selling will be coming into the markets. 2008 will be nothing to what is coming.
USOIL - Bearish analysis part 2Not much of an additional analysis here, rather more of an update. Take a look at my previous post to get an idea of the EMA rule I use so that this makes a bit more sense.
As I mentioned in the last post, we fell through the 21EMA (red one) and failed to get back above it, which generally means we're headed to the 55 EMA (yellow one). Well, that pretty much just happened, so now we have to wait and see if it holds. If the price falls through and close beneath the 55, chances are it'll run up and retest it, possibly wicking the 34 or 21 EMAs (orange & red) before getting b**** slapped into downward oblivion. Where is oblivion, I hear you ask? That be the Sasha Grey EMA. Or the 200 EMA if you have more of a thing for numbers. No judgement here.
That being said, we do have support levels that could be cushy enough for a bounce. That is where I'd expect one to happen if it does fall. However, if it doesn't fall, our next target would be the 21 EMA for a candle body close with the 55 EMA possibly receiving a good wicking.
Another fun thing to keep in mind before I end this - the closer the EMAs are together, the harder it is for price action to rise through them. Think of them like brick walls. If the walls are all back to back, they form one thick wall that would need a huge amount of force to break through. If they're spaced apart however, you'd need a much smaller amount of force to break through one by one, making it easier to get through them. When you see them really spaced apart, have a look at your other indicators such as RSI for bullish/bearish divergences and volume. Chances are that when you get the divergence, the spacing of the EMAs could give you a great idea of how big a move there is to come. If the volume significantly tapers off, it's highly likely the move will be explosive.
Hope this was useful - stay safe!
DERCUSD Potential Reversal , RSI Divergence + OutbreakWith Derace launching its full 'NFT horse racing metaverse' in October, I'll be sure to keep an eye on the price action leading up to this event.
In addition to releasing a bunch of tools for the community before launch, Derace will also focus on Mass adoption once launched.
All of these things will drive engagement up and hopefully reduce some of Derace's current bearish sentiment.
So fundamentally speaking, there is definitely some upside to be had...
On a technical level, we can come to the same conclusion:
1. Decreasing volume on Weekly
2. RSI Divergence
3. Curve-shaped Recovery
4. RSI outbreak --> Potential chart channel outbreak
5. 2 Month Consolidation around ICO price.
I would be really surprised if DERCUSD drops below 0.288 from here, but i could definitely be wrong.
Good luck!
Is this recent rally a bull rebound of a bear retracement? To make an assessment if the market has turned bear, during the closing second quarter on 29th June 2022, we discussed on the topic “Using S&P to Identify Recession
and on the 19 Jul, 2 weeks ago the tutorial posted here, we studied and expecting this current rebound, topic “Nasdaq a leading indicator of Dow Jones, S&P & Russell”.
In today’s tutorial, I thought of doing a recap between the two videos and explore if the current market and its development, if it is a bull rebound heading to break another new all-time high or if it is a bear retracement?
I have included both the video links below.
Before we get into this topic, please also take some time to read through the disclaimer in the description box below.
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Tutorial example:
Micro E-Mini Nasdaq
0.25 = US$0.50
1.00 = US$2
(12,900 - 11,900) x US$2
=US$2,000
(Note: Opposite is also true)
• During the closing second quarter in June, on 29 Jun - “Using S&P to Identify Recession
• On the 19 Jul, 2 weeks ago - “Nasdaq a leading indicator of Dow Jones, S&P & Russell”
Bitcoin short-term view - bullish divergence but lack of volumeBitcoin short-term view - bullish divergence but lack of volume
(a) we might see a bullish divergence on RSI
(b) a second leg down can be quick to $22.235 - $22.109 - FIB golden pocket since we have a lack of volume below current price level
But no concerns for BTC Bulls till FIB 78.6% ($21.574)
*not financial advice
do your own research before investing
CME WTI Crude Oil Break Out After Fed Meeting? $101 Next Stop?Crude Oil Futures saw a high (~$123.00) on June 14, 2022, and have been retreating ever since. I am not in the fashion of calling bottoms, but there has been some nice consolidation over the past 2 weeks! July 14th saw a recent low (~$90.50), and we have not tested that area yet! Here is what the charts are telling me:
1.
The downtrend line from that June 14 high is currently being tested as I type ($98.75)
If this downtrend line is broken with conviction, the next stop is ~$101.00. This level was SUPPORT (July 7-12).
This ~$101.00 SUPPORT level was broken and became RESISTANCE! CL tried to break this level on July 19, but couldn't do it.
Here is the thing though! After it tested the ~$101.00 level on the 19th, it did NOT make a new low! In fact it stopped at ~$93.00 (Low was ~$90.50)
Uptrends start with higher lows. We traded ~$99.00 yesterday, which coincides with that GIANT down trendline from a month ago. If we break these in the overnight session, ~$101 it is!.
2.
MACD has positive divergence. What does this mean? The MACD made a higher low, as the CME WTI future traded lower. This basically means the downtrend is slowing down.
3.
Upside targets after ~$101 Are:
~$103.00 (.382 Fibonacci Retracement from ~$123.00 - $~99.50)
~$105.33 (RESISTANCE from July 8)
~$106.86 (50% Fibonacci Retracement)
~110.72 (2 factors here! .618 Fibonacci Retracement AND Resistance from July 4!)
This whole scenario is considered to fail if it breaks the up trendline formed from the low made on July 14, to the next higher low made on July 25 ~$93.00. CME Micro Futures are a great way to enter this positive risk/reward trade.
FEEL FREE TO DM ME WITH ANY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS YOU MAY HAVE! HAPPY TRADING!
MACD Education:
Developed by Gerald Appel in the late 1970’s
Useful in trending markets because it is unbounded
MACD Line = (12 period EMA - 26 period EMA )
Signal Line = 9 period EMA of MACD Line
MACD Histogram = MACD Line - Signal Line
Convergence occurs when the MA move towards each other.
Divergence occurs when the MA move away from each other.
Typically the 26 and 12 period EMA are used
Oscillates above and below 0
When MACD is positive, the shorter average is above the longer term average
Signals when it crosses from below to above the signal line
Histogram was developed by Thomas Aspray in 1986
Signals MACD above or below signal line
Bullish divergence on 1h chart - idea for today 01.08.2022Hello last mine ideas went good soo, here is mine another idea. BTC went down a bit as i predicted yesterday. But today we can see bullish divergence on 4h chart and 1h chart. also ichimoku cloud is under the price on 4h chart that means we are still in uptrend. confirmation to went up over 23800 would be bullish sign.(there is baseline there)
USDCHF - Divergence RSI for a Long trendBull Divergence condition:
1. Point A: RSI is Oversold (<30)
2. Point B: Most important.
- EMA: 34 & 89: Point B is must crossover and above EMAs -> Bull is enough creating a Divergence.
- RSI of Point B > 50.
3. Point C: .
- On chart: Price lower but RSI higher.
- RSI of Point C is above Oversold zone.
FILUSDT - Oversold (Weekly chart!)I will keep this brief:
1) Price has dropped over 98% (!) from ATH
2) RSI is as oversold levels, descending wedge forming
3) The falling wedge drawn
4) It has printed red candles for a consecutive 10 weeks. How much more can it drop?
5D BTC pair chart looking nice too
Can the price drop more? Sure. But after a 98% correction? I am willing to say chances are in favor of upside.
TImeframe: Weeks
Return: Don't know
Leverage: 2-3x if you need to use
CRM - Bullish Divergence on MonthlyCRM hit a low of 154 in late May, a 78.6% fibonacci retracement of it's major AB swing up.
It then traded sideways in the past 2 months, forming a symmetrical triangle.
With bullish divergence seen on it's monthly chart, it looks like the odds of a breakup is likely and when this happens, it is probably a good time to ride the trend.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!