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Divergence

Long term buy on GBPUSDGBPUSD is trending on a solid support, on the weekly chart, we will search for buy setups using Elliot Waves, Fib extensions (from many points of view) and Fib retracements. We will also discuss the emotions of traders, where the sellers could start getting exhausted, and taking their profits so we can see the market bouncing. Divergence comes at the end to confirm my trade. Be careful, long-term trading needs a serious risk management, the stop loss is never close. Don't consider the buy order at the end of the video, the recording run out of time and i couldn't explain the entry precisely. This video is in Arabic language (Lebanese), I can start making english videos if you traders on tradingview are interested in my ideas. Thankyou, Joe
Long
by joe-abdallah
2
EUR/USD Double Bottom Daily Time FrameHi Traders, I am looking at this potential Double bottom forming on the Daily Time Frame for EUR/USD We've seen this descending trend line act as resistance since early February. We can see we also have two clear bottoms with accompanied divergence across the MA lines of the MACD. If we can see some impulsive price action accompanied by sizeable bullish volume that breaks us out of the descending trend line, ( and closes above the neck zone ), I would then wait for the price to retrace back into the neck zone before opening up my long position. Targets would be previous price structures. Daily chart patterns are a great way of practicing patience haha. Trade safe out there! The Vortex Trader
Long
by TheVortexTrader
LBS / Lumber Futures potential long trade incomingMy chart idea illustrates a confluence of fundamental and technical analysis which leads me to believe a long trade in the Lumber futures market may getting close. On the fundamental side: - We have seen Commercial buyers become net long for a whole month, last time this happened was mid 2020 and this then led to a ~130% price rise over 2 months when the price went from roughly $350 up to $820, albeit it was a bumpy ride with numerous gaps up and down along the way. This recent commercial buying activity is shown with the blue above the zero line in the COT report indicator. On the technical side: - There is clear bullish divergence on the daily chart between price and the RSI. Key technical levels to watch: - Volume profile going back almost 1yr (as much as I could fit onto daily chart) shows the biggest volume cluster / Point of Control sits around $620, so price needs to break above this and hold the level to confirm break of down trend. - Coincidently the above mentioned level measures up almost precisely ($618) with a Fibonacci level when using the recent double top as anchor points. - When drawing a simple trend resistance line from the recent high in march and down to current price then you can see that this trend has not been broken yet, however the line recently intersected $620 level. If price breaks the trend then the $620 level shouldn't be far off. - Lastly on the weekly chart price is just touching oversold levels in the RSI. Historically Lumber hasn't prolonged periods at this level, it typically touches or breaks the level and reverses back within a few weeks. In summary it looks like ~$620 is a key level that needs to be broken above and if it can hold that level until weeks end then I'd be looking to position a long entry. The Lumber futures market does offer big reward when it moves however it is very illiquid with tendency to price gap once it starts trending so caution needs to be exercised!
LLong
by gary_trades
[Signal] EURJPY: Safe Haven PlayFX:EURJPY Timeframe: H1 Direction: Short Technical Confluences for Trade: - Price action at Resistance of Ascending Channel - Stochastic Overbought momentum - Widening of the EMAs Fundamental Confluences for Trade: - There is some risk with EUR spiking higher due to the rising inflation situation in Europe but at the same time, global inflation pressure is starting to leave a drag on growth. Risk assets may continue to take a beating and may see some safe haven plays. - Inflationary pressure is starting to pick up in Japan; may see a change in BOJ's monetary stance (reducing the yield differential between the US and Japan) Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 139.70 - 140.50 SL: 140.92 TP1: 139.25 (move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved) TP2: 137.85 RR: Approx. 3.30 (Depending on Entry Level) May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D *This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and we are not responsible for any losses derived from it.
Short
by weekendanalyst
BITCOIN - Bullish Divergence... 👀 🚀In our last Bitcoin analysis, we were waiting for the 4th wave to appear which we now have. We are on the final legs of the ABC and we have a solid level to look for price to stay above, which is above 19.5K. The bullish reversal can come in anywhere above that price. It will be more clear once we get the final leg down. We can see that there's bullish divergence at play at the moment. The last time we saw any kind of divergence, it was in 2021 where we had bearish divergence. Bitcoin went on to crash more than 50%. The bullish divergence is indicating that there's a trend reversal coming soon.. and it's going to be a big one! Trade Idea: - Watch lower timeframe trendline breaks for the 5th wave lower - Targets: 27k, 24k, 20k Once we're near the bottom, we can look for any bullish reversal patterns at which time we can load up and ride Bitcoin to 100K! 🚀
by WicktatorFX
11
Negative Divergences Often Warn of Declines: Bitcoin & Gold Negative Divergences Often Warn of Impending Declines: Bitcoin Highlighted…. Is Gold Next? OTC:GBTC COMEX:GC1! INDEX:BTCUSD The CMT Association is proud to publish this guest post from Louise Yamada CMT. Louise was a Managing Director and Head of Technical Research for Smith Barney (Citigroup), and while there, was a perennial leader in the Institutional Investor poll and the top-ranked market technician in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004. Louise was the 2016 recipient of the CMT Association’s Lifetime Achievement Award. In these examples we use the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator to illustrate the concept of divergence, to forensically evaluate Bitcoin and to make some forward looking observations on the gold market. Divergences: • Negative momentum divergences often warn of impending price consolidations or declines. • Divergence forms as price moves to a new high while the oscillator fails at a lower high, creating a negative divergence between the oscillator and price. • Divergences of this type suggest that the underlying momentum may be waning. Divergences carry different implications depending upon their time frame. • Daily perspective divergences suggest either a consolidation, or a pullback in an ongoing uptrend. • Weekly perspective divergences suggest a more sustained consolidation or even a reversal of trend, particularly if important support is violated. • Monthly divergences have the potential to result in a more sustained decline or even to reverse an uptrend. MACD sell signals give validity to divergences. • Monthly signals have much more weight than weekly and daily. • Monthly divergences don’t always occur prior to monthly MACD sell signals • But when a sell signal does occur it offers a structural warning. Graystone Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) Weekly: • The March 2021 high (A) was followed by a roughly equal price high (B). However, the MACD momentum peaked at a significantly lower high (Line A1-B1), forming a classic divergence that suggested that upward momentum was fading. • At point C, the weekly MACD moved onto a sell signal (the fast moving average crossed below the slower moving average) strongly suggesting that positions should be either lightened or sold. • After the sell signal was generated, price declined from 50 to 24. • A weekly MACD buy signal was then generated at point D. The subsequent rally carried price near the prior high. • The failure of the MACD to match its prior high warned of potential weakness. • The MACD generated another sell signal at point E, suggesting lightening or selling positions. Price offered another decline from 50 to 24. • After a multi-week consolidation in March-April 2022, price broke below the support @24 (S1-S2). • MACD continues to decline, suggesting that the price decline may not be over, notwithstanding interim rallies. • Before considering a new long, evidence of stabilization at a low and the gradual reversal of the daily, weekly and eventually, monthly MACDs would be required. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) Daily • On the daily perspective chart that there is a divergence from price (A-B) and the MACD (C-D) • The divergence warned of the possibility of bearish developments spreading to the weekly and monthly. Graystone Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) Monthly: • The monthly chart also shows a divergence at points MD1 and MD2 and on the histogram at MD3 and MD4. • At the second price high (B), MACD hadn’t yet generated a sell signal, but it was beginning to flatten and roll over. • One can also see the falling histogram, as the MACD narrows (blue arrow), and the divergence progressed, until it finally generated a clear sell. • Price lingered above the support at 24 (S2) for several months providing ample time to adjust positions before the May 2022 price breakdown. Momentum is still declining, suggesting that it’s too soon to consider re-entry, notwithstanding interim rallies, which can carry into resistance, formerly support. Graystone Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) relative to SPX Weekly: • One can also note a similar warning in the weekly Relative Strength (RS) negative divergence. • In this case the RS for BITCOIN/SPX was also suggesting a change from a period of relative overperformance to one of relative underperformance. Is Gold Next? Gold is displaying many of the same long term MACD warning behaviors evident in the GBTC chart. COMEX Gold Daily: • Despite the May 2020 (R1) and 2022 (R2) price peaks being roughly equal, the MACD (R3 & R4) peaked at a much lower level. • A MACD Sell signal occurred after the 2020 peak (R3), alerting to the possible price decline, which eventually carried to the March 2021 low near 1,700 (S1). • The lower March 2022 MACD peak (R4) also registered a sell signal, suggesting one might lighten positions. COMEX Gold Monthly: • There is a monthly multi-year MACD negative divergence between the 2012 (R1) and 2022 (R2) price peaks. • In 2012, the monthly MACD structural sell signal (R3) was very effective as price collapsed toward 1,100 on the sell signal. • In March 2022, the MACD, registered another major monthly sell (R4), and then subsequently rallied to test the high (R2) without generating a new buy signal (A), a sign of weakness. • The MACD has remained negative and appears poised to perhaps continue down. • This suggests that Gold may be in danger of a potentially large decline, especially if support at 1,700 is broken. • Such a breach could easily find support at the breakout level from the 2013 to 2019 basing pattern at 1400. • It is possible, however, that although GOLD has broken out in many other currencies, the extraordinary current strength in the US dollar may be contributing to the Gold disappointment. Louise Yamada CMT LYAdvisors LLC
GEducation
by CMT_Association
75