The diversification in Crypto Market In this article, I want to tell you about diversification and its usefulness. Diversification is the investment practice that consists of investing in various financial instruments, such as assets, with the aim of being able to reduce the riskiness of our portfolio and, ultimately, potential losses.
Two types of risk
In finance we can distinguish two types of risks: systemic risk and ideosyncratic risk. Systemic risk is market risk. I'm talking about an event that affects all companies (if we talk about assets) of the same industry. So if we have an event that hits the tech sector hard, both google, microsoft and apple will surely suffer. Then we have another type of risk and that is the ideosyncratic one. The ideosyncratic risk reflects events that affect the single asset, the single company. An event that affects google, but it is not certain that it also affects microsoft.
Reduce risk by diversification
That said, you have probably understood that through diversification, we invest in multiple and different assets to minimize the effects of negative events affecting individual companies. However, the investor will never be able to reduce the risk to zero. There will be a threshold beyond which we cannot go down and that is systemic risk.
Diversification in the crypto market
In the world of cryptocurrencies, we now have hundreds of different coins. However, if we look at the prices, we can see that all of them, for better or worse, reflect the trend of the leading currency, bitcoin.
This phenomenon is called CORRELATION in statistics and describes the synchronous trend of two variables. The phenomenon can be observed simply by analyzing the graphs of the various currencies together with bitcoin. But if you don't trust it, you can always calculate what is called the correlation coefficient. To do this, you will need the covariance between the btc and the other currency you want to analyze and the two standard deviations. Said this, what are the implications for the practice of diversifying into cryptocurrencies.
Conclusion
Well... That said, what are the implications for practicing cryptocurrency diversification? Well ... obviously we are nullifying the benefits of diversification, if not making our situation worse. If we invest in instruments that are positively correlated, we are no longer canceling the ideosyncratic risk. Rather! An unwitting investor, convinced that he can diversify by investing in different cryptocurrencies, for a large sum of money, will be subject to more losses than investing a smaller sum, but focused exclusively on bitcoin. Of course, there are price deviations. They involve events for specific currencies, but the price still remains correlated with the main currency.
Diversification
go long KWEBtrading below its VWAP from the previous high, Emerging Markets expected to outperform this year, KWEB is a good way to focus exposure in China while getting a diverse basket of high growth names that are titans over there with names like Alibaba, Tencent, Pinduoduo, Baidu, and JD.com.
Diversification is key especially as US markets top out in the near term
10 ways to speed up the process & improve our bottom line1- Get good: make sure you spot patterns and avoid mistakes by practicing
First of all obviously, and I did not find this in the "how to improve performance lists" I looked at on the internet, obviously you want to avoid mistakes as much as possible and also we want to make sure we never miss out.
So every single day checking the news and/or charts and any other source we may find helpful.
And then also regularly going through past trades, taken or backtested, going through the whole process, and even using tradingview replay button on past price action to train our recognition skills, learn to not fomo in, and more.
The first 5 years are the hardest they say, and then the price action pops out more easily.
2- Get good: keep reading and learning
I'm sure many if not most ideas & strategies see their first spark when we just spend time reading about markets and looking at charts without specifically looking for a strategy, it just comes naturally we spot patterns with time.
So keep spending time taking an interest in everything, when you get a little light appear over your head go check if it has any value if a strat can be derived out of it, and this all should just happen by itself over time.
3- Trade lower timeframes, higher timeframes
You could get into statistical arbitrage, crypto arbitrage and market making, or any other short term activity.
The barrier to entry is here, the skill floor is not down to zero, so there is a large investment to make just to get started.
If you are currently hardstuck, it might be interesting, probably not very, from what I have seen most of the money is made using expensive technology and day trader data to take money from the usual retail victims (100% of day traders are "retail" traders).
But if there is a bone with a bit of meat left and it's not too much effort for the reward, even getting an extra 2-3% a year might be worth it.
Another solution, more intelligent but less attractive to the average "retail" beginner is to look at higher timeframes.
One could have no short term activity on a currency that is very choppy and very slow but take a long term position and get a little bit of extra profit. Also with aiming for long term when possible we can get more out of the market, bigger winners (more "pips") = more profit, and spreads become insignificant.
4- Build another business
It can take the focus away, the smart entrepreneur will avoid getting too ambitious and beign a jack of all trades master of none, if one is hopelessly stuck at a ceiling they can't breakout of it could be a good idea to stop forcing and look somewhere else, the ceiling might be easier to break later on.
A business can add more stable cash inflow, reduce risk and net worth or income volatility, and keep us from tearing our hair out when we aren't getting the amount of setups we want in the markets.
5- Increase position size
Go big like Bill Hwang, then blow up like Bill Hwang. This guy over the years (15 years I think) made more than 60% a year return without much people knowing about it as he was running a family office, he grew in 8 years if my source is correct 200 million into 10 billions. At first he tried to speed up the process by cheating, he got caught up in several insider trading scandals so then he tried something else which was leverage. And blew up.
His positions being so big makes it even worse, and being concentrated, such a whale exiting crashes these stocks completely.
Even the big company Baidu lost 50% of its market cap.
Us plebes don't even come close. Even a "large" 1 million dollar account is 1/10,000 th of his 10 billion.
I am not encouraging anyone to be a degen gambler I'm saying someone that lives in the west and has been profitable might think "I am willing to risk these 5000 euros", such an account can be built back even by simply working at mcdonalds for a while.
The gambling type that risks everything is not the type that ever manages to be profitable.
Still, while small we might want to take on a bit more risk, a reasonable amount, to hopefully speed up the process a bit.
But this is not the only tool and used after all the other stuff improving etc.
So here's perhaps an idea to be looked at. Several companies share prices dropped massively, that's not some legit regular price discovery, the price was destroyed because of a whale causing a fire sale. The term "oversold" could maybe be applied here.
Where are all the retail gamblers? Aren't they buying this time? They always chase crashes. Scared? Or maybe too small, or maybe they sold already when the price slightly bounced and they were up 1% LOL!
6- Improve a strategy RR & WR OR allow for a lower PF but get more signals
Once you have a working strategy you still improve as an investor but the strategy itself should not be getting optimised all the time or something is wrong.
Until we get it right we keep backtesting and working out the contours and details of our strategy, we insist on it to trade it correctly like improving a skill, then once this is done we look for something else and just run it making sure to still give it some time.
7- Add another strategy
An obvious way to get more setups hence more profits is to get a new strategy, but this is done only when the previous one(s) is mastered.
You can expect this to take 3 months to a couple of years. And it can interfere with your focus of the other one, it can also be somewhat correlated so have to watch out for that. It is a big project.
Does not mean we can't always be on the lookout for new strategies and new knowledge, just don't always try trading new strategies, just put the "potential" ones in a corner of your head (and excel DB) and progressively come back to it until at some point after months or years you gathered enough info and really get into it all in. There are several strategies, for stocks in particular I have been looking at, for example I have been posting here and there on this site about the "dead stock bounce" thing but I never traded it, maybe one day I'll start doing so. For now I still have a whole lot to learn about Forex plus a couple of commodities.
The easier way to avoid correlations and other troubles is to have a strong trend following strategy, and then another one for other scenarios. And of course when you end up taking a trend following buy on a currency make sure your other strategy buy is not on a correlated one...
8- Trade more assets
More uncorrelated assets, if they do not hurt performance = more cashing 🤑🤑🤑!
Especially when not much is moving with Forex, just going back and forth, and here you have the S&P 5000 that broke 4000 without hesitation after whales got liquidated and banks had to take the hit, it even gapped up, a bit early to cry victory and stonks time horizons are not the same as Forex ones, but for now it is STRONG and it sure got my attention. Been buying since September/October but been more eager recently.
Not a simple snap of fingers and here we go, adding instruments to our activity is a big project, just like a business that sells printers to China starting to produce protection for cellphones for Taïwan or whatever. People think abstract = easy. I'm laughing since it is the opposite. The more intellectual something is, the more difficulty gets ignored, "let's just use a magic wand to make covid disappear" ye good luck with that, what a mentality. Next let's ask devs to code 10 thousand lines a day like it's physical labor and let's ask a scientist picked at random to find the cure for cancer it's easy very little manual labor.
There is such a lack of respect for mental activities, it's beyond.
9- Push these winners to the limit
S&P again. I've said a while ago I wanted to get really aggressive with the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, I just contained myself 1-2 hours ago to not buy more S&P because I am already ***** deep at that point.
This is not the same as being the typical dumb money and greedy pigs that gamble and get wiped out and never are heard form again.
If you have this urge to go on the offensive real hard, but within reason as a skilled trader, you can improve your performance.
Just don't go all Bill Hwang. Ah if he went aggressive but was 40/40/20 in stocks/forex & cme futures/safe holdings and a bit less concentrated (or in larger cap stuff) he'd be alive now.
Humans evolved to "survive against all odds", agility intelligence and social structures helped.
"Never give up and survive against all odds" this is not what the markets reward. Markets rewards ambush predators.
Get your example from the cheetah, these superfast cats are like bullets. They patiently watch their preys, as we should.
Then they run. And 90% or more of the time the prey gets away. The cheetah could easily catch it but is it worth it? NO.
A cheetah will not take a diminished risk reward, it will "give up" all the time, "oh noes" says the slow human meatbag, "never give up".
Well the cats that survive, that's who. Capitalism 101. The longer they chase, the more calories they spend. Costs go up.
Risk also goes up, as they get tired they become more vulnerable AND these seconds they spend chasing they are not paying attention to anything else.
So they become less likely to escape or fight off danger, while being much less alert of danger for a long while.
The risks are not worth it, and the costs either.
Even while being patient and carefully choosing their prey and the moment they go in, 9 out of 10 get away.
So they might lose let's say 200 kcalories each time. But now is the good part, once they get one secured, they don't just take a quick bite and run away like all these bagholding profit snatching retail traders. They are destroying that prey. 30,000 calories at once. One big meal. They eat everything. Winrate 5-10% reward/risk 150. Now that's a good trader that extracts all he can from his winners.
10- You can't so learn to be patient
RIP. We can always keep improving and doing more and the sky is the limit, but no matter what we do we have to accept that we are going to have to be patient and no one just goes from poor to super rich overnight. It's so hard, but there is no choice. Got to be patient. We are not the FED or the ECB we do not own a money printer.
Solana expectations? Buy? No? Yes?Difficult question and I do not have a yes or no answer. But what we do know is that Solana is used more by the day and more use means a greater demand by companies and users for Solana. This is positive for the price of Solana. For 2021, therefore, a large growth in the price of Solana is also expected because more collaborations will come and new products will be developed. It al looks very promising.
The price predictions for Solana is therefore highly estimated by many analysts and experts. It is a crypto that is increasingly in demand, has more and more collaborations and more and more new product innovations do what is most important.
A price expectation for Solana? No, impossible (for me at least). Adoption of the entire cryptocurrency industry is on the rise, with Solana becoming a favorite cryptocurrency for many due to high demand. What can be said is that the future seems positive and a price increase of hundreds of percent can be very realistic in the coming years.
So I wouldn't put everything I own in Solana, but it never hurts to expand my portfolio a bit.
Please share your opinion. :)
Why Bitcoin Should be 1-5% of PortfolioHello World, I'll keep this post very short as the proof is is "in the pudding." Take a look at the five year percent ROI on Bitcoin vs. the S&P 500. For an asset that returns ~865% at its 2019 low point, which is over 8 times the return on the S&P 500, it may just make sense to keep 1-5% of your portfolio in Bitcoin to offset volatility or compliment the returns afforded to you by equity investments.
While this post is about Bitcoin, I can't help but question why someone would want to own/buy bonds right now... Unless the nominal interest rates will go negative in the United States, yields only have one direction they can go--up! When yields go up, the prices of already-issued bonds on the market (at lower interest rates/yields) become worth less because now there are new bonds available that yield more. I just don't see how bonds could go up from here let alone hold their value. To the soon to be retiree, maybe you can get the best of the world of traditional finance and the new emergence of asset classes like crypto by allocating just a small percentage of your portfolio to Bitcoin. Doing so would provide more diversification and, given historical trends, allow the gains from the small Bitcoin allocation to supplement the returns of the entire portfolio at a scale that would be meaningful.
These are just my thoughts--I'm not a financial advisor and this is not investment advice.
Looking at my portfolio and correlationsThis is not really my thing but I want to look into these correlations
First half of my risk is in crypto and they are all correlated.
Is it also correlated to the S&P?
Not really. On the way down the S&P did not drag Bitcoin along. There is no correlation at all with gold, all good.
The FX pairs are a bit correlated but half size each (for now).
So apart from the cryptos my porftolio is diversified. I mixed up the "long" term and short term but hey anyway each half (short & long) of it is checked.
The short term is all diversified the long term crypto heavy. Soybean has no correlation whatsoever also.
With cryptos I should stop adding and just ride it for now. To be real honest I don't have double clip on Bitcoin but maybe closer to 4 😀
My risk manager doesn't care he knows I am the chosen one. On the way up I should secure some profit before I re-enter with bigger risk.
I really want to hit it. But ye going through this I may be a bit overexposed. Let's make sure it goes up before going mental.
Just like with the S&P it's almost touching ath, it can smell it.
I really got 1.5 "big" bet long term, well if it goes to the sky it will be big.
And then a small short term portfolio, not really using advantage of Ray Dalio magic growth via many uncorrelated positions here.
Except I take what the market gives I'm sure some people think they can coinflip trades and the "power of diversification" will magically earn the profit.
Basically 3 positions short term it is fine, hopefully 1 of them wins.
TO THE MOON!
COCOA is tapping on the resistance of recent trading rangeNIB (cocoa ETN) is pushing against the top of the trading range. Cocoa has been consolidating for around two month now. Since I am long term bullish on agricultural commodities such as cocoa, if/when the top of the range is taken out, I expect quick run up as most of these commodities tend to have unidirectional run. First target is $32.80 range and next is the yellow down trend line. When and if that trend line is taken, I expect bigger upward move.
Have a good trade everyone,
T.
Providing this Israeli Innovation Fund a ZenMode $35 TargetThe Bank of Israel carried out a series of quantitative easing measures for the first time since the global financial crisis, buying government bonds of various types and maturities in the open market. As such, Israel stocks showed strength as economic damage from the coronavirus outbreak was less than initially feared.
Holds 39 stocks in its basket with AUM of $24.7 million. Contains an average trading volume of 8,000 shares.
Sector Breakdown:
Cyclical 2.9%
Defensive 30.3%
Communications 13.3%
Industrials 5.17%
Technology 48.2%
Top Holdings:
Ituran Location and Control Ltd
Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd
Taro Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd
The fund normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in securities that are included in the fund's benchmark index, depositary receipts representing securities included in the index or underlying stocks in respect of depositary receipts included in the index.
CFRA rated it a 1/5 on 12/31
Managed by Catherine Wood and running a 0.48% management fee.
Be smart. Be an OTP.I do not know anyone in any field that is successful by doing everything.
The average hedge fund is diversified, sure, but first of all they start in 1 area then diversify by learning more and hiring people, and second they underperform, they diversify to reassure investors but this is bad. You'll sometimes see them on tv acting knowledgeable. They are not high performance athletes they are investment merchants that make money from fees their clients pay them.
The best all go to private mgmt, they manage their own money, and/or the money of a couple of high net worth individuals, sometimes of a single ultra high net worth individual.
Masters: Patient
Noobs: Chase anything that moves, you don't make money if you're not in the market duh!
It is so mind boggling to see these youtube day gamblers with their little screens with 20+ tickers on here, and switch from 1 to another.
There is a simple strategy that can be applied to all stocks but pros don't know about it, and these guys sell it for a few hundred bucks, and why do they sell it?
Well because it does not scale duh! Except it scales since they can trade all stocks with a simple rince & repeat strategy (if they can do 20 in a day it is simple),
but they are too stupid to think of scripting it and scaling to hundreds of stocks, maybe someone should tell them.
What will the next excuse be "Oh but it only works if the stock was in the news", ok then use a bot that reads the news "yes but...".
Those Robinbros & TikTokers really crack me up. A lot joined in 2019-2020. They're just so bad. You hear daily the craziest nonsense.
They just gamble on everything that moves. It's one big casino to them.
In the masters there is 1 exception that is not really one: quants. They find several strategies and scale them to as many tickers as possible, as many asset classes as they can.
But even then they are in a way OTPs. Let me explain: RenTec does incredible with the medallion fund. But their other funds are mediocre.
Hey a professional basketball player got knocked out by a youtuber recently. He is a pro athlete and would destroy him at basketball, but he is not a boxer.
Masters are specialists. Low tier novices are generalists.
We need to be smarter than the rest, we need to play on home field, we need to analyse a whole lot of info, we need to accumulate much knowledge, we need to watch our trades very carefully, this is accomplished by being a specialist, not possible to outsmart millions of people and watch baskets of eggs carefully if there are 5 baskets of 10 eggs.
Unless you cheat (insider info, front running,...) money is made by being smarter, better informed.
A childish argument made by small minds trying to look smart (professors of economics...) is that "hey everyone has access to the same info so this is why I cannot make money".
Everyone had access to the same info concerning Redemsivir. An expensive inefficient toxic garbage product. Yet many thought it would be "the cure".
2017-2019 the S&P 500 & DJIA kept going up and down "trade war hopes" and "oh no trade war escalation". And 2020 was "Covid will kill everyone and we have to shut down everything" crash followed by "cure hope" recovery.
Small minds with pompous scholar titles have said the stock market was irrational, and they came up with an excuse "well softbank whale, no one could know this".
Except we have known all along that endless hordes of individual investors were entering the market. The tik tok investor phenomenon skyrocketed.
We know these investors are not very smart. And we know when this happens, prices go up.
Even very bearish conditions will get crushed under the weight of the gigantic dumb money herd.
We also knew the FED overheated the money printer.
Somehow Nouriel the Nobel Prize at the bottom in March-April was still calling for zero haha what a guy, his specialty is posing as a scholarly authority figure, not making predictions and not making money. This guy is such a clown. Why is it the "serious people" are so often such clowns?
In hindsight it is simple. But hey I waited for a pullback and when it happened in september I bought, not hindsight.
I was not active with US indices in 2020 before that buy because it is not my specialty, just a bonus side thing.
Now there is a risk, many novices joined, I do not know if the tik tok wave is over.
US tensions are still here, now Antifa and Proud boys are regularly fighting, it's like 1931 Germany.
So perhaps after the "trade deal" era and "covid hopes" era, the next era will be civil war fud.
Yes sure right now it is taboo and "woooo the conspiracy theory" but just you wait, tomorrow it might be the new thing.
An one trick pony yes, but one tricks can & should have a small side weapon
For my part on average I have around:
80% of my activity in Major currencies (Including the Swedish Krona & Chinese Yuan - offshore Renminbi)
15% of my activity in CME commodities (Oil, Gold, Copper, Grains)
5% in other areas, it is really tiny (US & EU indices, Bitcoin)
I am not ultra familiar with what I trade, it's not like a second nature, but I am familiar enough to be very comfortable and knowing most of the ins & outs, I do not have to ask myself all sorts of questions when I look at one of my charts. And of course, I don't trade them all at the same time.
In October and November 1/3 of my trades concerned the AUD. 20% were NZD trades. And it's all the same 2 strategies over and over.
If I could only trade Forex I would do great. The rest is extra. And if FX got banned (because so many retail investors lose, because of a new Bretton Woods), I could bounce back, I would not do great but I'd have something to play with, I would try to expand how many commodities I trade, but I would not start from zero, I would have to learn new futures (that I already know a bit about) while resting on a solid (not exceptional but solid) base made up of Gold Oil Copper, in an area I am moderately familiar with.
My favorite thing is to be an OTP with 1 "champion" that you play over and over and over, but with a secondary champion that you are decent with.
I repeat: Novices and eternal losers are jacks of all trades. Winners are one tricks.
When we look at the 2 extremes of the investing world we see on one side the novice, the absolute noob, that is a jack of all trades master of none, they know nothing about trading (they think they do), they get bored quickly by 1 stock or crypto then jump to another, they keep jumping around, they trade so many different things, the worse (and funniest) extreme fail example is when they know NOTHING about futures and see $1 Oil then somehow their ego is so big they think there is an incredible opportunity but no one noticed it's just them, and so they buy, and then the price falls to -40 and they lose 5000% of their money; and on the other side you find experts that only trade 1 thing, some of those may be lucky (gold millionaires), but there is quite a trend with OTPs that get successful.
The more you go towards novices the more you will see huge "diversification", the more you look at professionals the more narrow it gets, with billionaires (not just BRK) that are happy with 2-3 stocks. Honestly, how is it possible to be a crypto investor since 2015 and STILL BE BROKE!
These clowns are bad and they have no clue what they are doing, AND they hop around different cryptos over and over.
Which reminds me of something. Warren Buffett said "put all your eggs in the same basket and watch it closely", and don't touch it.
Of course lazy get rich quick investors turned that into "buy and forget".
Are any of those pilots? Imagine. Take off, then direct the plane towards the destination, then go play the PS5. "Ye just take off and forget".
A pilot isn't changing direction all the time, but he is watching closely instruments, and correcting if need be.
Bad investors either don't watch at all and then it is gambling and a terrible pilot, or they watch closely and change direction all the time and do freaking loopings and panic when the passengers knock at the door until they just jump with a parachute (or without sometimes "oh no my wife is going to kill me").
Successful people:
- Are specialists
- Learn everything there is to know about their specific subject and surrounding ones
- Practice their subject over and over and over and over all week long for years.
- Often have a secondary activity (5 to 25% of main)
- Know everything about the 1 thing, but also know a little about everything (in the periphery)
Armies have a selection process for basic soldiers. They have (had) to survive "shark" attacks and they must be smart enough and able to perform certain fitness tasks.
Snipers are specialized expert riflemen of sufficient rank that have several qualities, go through rigorous training and pass excellence tests.
According to figures released by the US Department of Defense, the average number of rounds expended in Vietnam to kill one enemy soldier with the average grunt M-16 was 50,000. The average number of rounds expended by U.S. military snipers to kill one enemy soldier was 1.3 rounds. That's a cost difference of $23,000 per kill for the average soldier, vs. $0.17 per kill for the military sniper. Yes the M-16 includes suppressive fire and everything but still.
Snipers have 1 job. And that's all they do. You won't see them get to the location, and once here you won't see them you won't hear them you won't smell them. They'll prepare and they will wait for as long as it will take.
But snipers learn and have skill about more than just 1 thing than just aiming and shooting, first of all they went through basic training duh, and they know a great deal about camouflage, about idk breathing, about weapons, about aiming, moving silently, exiting after taking the shot, and more (like FX traders kind of look at every other asset and not just central bank press releases and the 3 month chart but everything: other currency pair charts, various timeframes, the things everyone else looks at which is US elections and covid, other asset classes, and so on).
The typical Tik Tok investor will tell you "this has nothing to do with...". Remember the scene in starship troopers? "Sir, I don't understand. What good's a knife in a nuke fight? All you have to do is press a button, sir.". "Put your hand on that wall, trooper.". He sure learned his lesson. Novice investors... Always trying to make it as easy as lazy as possible, and always chasing anything that moves.
Those reasons are why you should be smart and be an OTP.
CORRELATION,DIVERSIFYING & HEDGING: An elementary viewGreetings
In the world of forex trading or trading of any financial instrument for that matter, many complex, technical and convoluted words are thrown around in conversations. Such jargon, though is relevant, tends to result in many blank stares especially among some of my peers, many of whom are not finance, economics or statistic fundi's. Many of them with basic education, yearn to be part of these conversations and also contribute their own opinions. This leads to many of them simply offering that awkward nod, wide smile and occasional laugh when everyone else does. they are relegated to conversation observers who's feet seem stuck to the floor. I've been there and that feeling is gut-wrenching, degrading and leads you to view the rest of the crowd as snobs, elitists or braggarts. this then creates apathy toward the subject matter. Well i will try, through this article, to open one of the many back doors to this world. I will attempt to unwrap and "break it down" to bite size chunks so that maybe one day when you are in the midst of the so called "esteemed highbrows", you will also throw in your "two cents".
This article will explore the concept of correlation trading. Correlation can also be viewed as the interconnection, interdependence, association or link between. So correlation trading (especially in forex), is basically a statistical measure of the relationship (or association or interdependence) of currency pairs. A simplified example would be if you take the AUDJPY pair. This pair is an association or link-between the AUDUSD and the USDJPY . It would stand to argue that the AUDJPY pair is "correlated" to the AUDUSD and USDJPY. A negative correlation implies that the currency pairs will move in opposing directions while positive correlations tend to move in the same direction. Negative correlated pairs are usually used for hedging purposes. Correlation coefficients range from-1 to +1. A correlation of -1 implies that the two currency pairs will move in opposite directions every time and vice versa if the coefficient is +1. In the past, at this stage of the conversation, I would have switched off looking for how to exit the group, but read further as we further dissect this further. What i have come to appreciate is that you don't have to fully get it the first time, but it will make sense as you progress.
So correlations are usually tabulated and presented in different date ranges, namely daily, weekly, monthly, 6 monthly and yearly. A simple example of the EURUSD against USDJPY pair would look like:
DAILY +0.44
WEEKLY -0.42
MONTHLY -0.34
6 MONTHLY -0.55
YEARLY -0.85
interpretation
Over a period of one year the EURUSD had a strong negative correlation against the USDJPY , meaning that 85% of the time when the EURUSD went up the USDJPY went down. Conversely over the daily time period these pairs were positively correlated. This example was also deliberately drawn up to show the correlations do not always remain the same over time. From the example the effects BREXIT might cause the temporary positive correlation on the daily time range among many other economic factors taking place in Japan.
SHOW ME HOW TO MAKE FROM THIS!!!
Now we have some understanding of correlation in forex pairs, here's how the "mashed potatoes mixes with the gravy". We know that the EURZAR and the USDZAR have a very strong positive correlation(I am biased on ZAR: South African Rand since i'm the mother continent), so trading trading on both pairs might not be advisable as it simply doubles your exposure. For instance you buy 1 lot of EURZAR and the same on USDZAR , knowing that these pairs are likely to move in the same direction, will simply double the chances of you losing more if the trade goes against you and vice versa. Lets say you try to get a "one up" on the market like what i tried to do when I started trading by going long on EURZAR and short on USDZAR at the same time. Well my friend that is a contra-trade (a trade that cancels the other) and most of the time you will end in a loss. You might be asking how you will end in a loss if the trades cancel out each other, well firstly these pairs don't always move in the same exact pip range (because they are not 100% correlated) and they have different pip values. Trust me the math doesn't lie, I won't go into it i might lose you at this point. However pairs that are negatively correlated to the EURZAR like the ZARJPY should not take an opposite position. Since we know that when the EURZAR goes up the ZARJPY goes down. So buying (or going long on) EURZAR and selling (or going short on) ZARJPY is the same as buying two position of EURZAR . In other words we have doubled our risk.
Some people might say well that the disadvantages stated above can also be utilised to our benefit if we know how to hedge our trades and also bring in diversification. Now this conversation is the one where we graduate to the master class of the inner circle of trading pro's. a friend approached me and enlightened me to the fact you can also diversify your trading portfolio, especially if you have a directional bias on a particular pair. Say, for example, you believe that the ZAR is entering a bullish season, you can diversify by putting a buy(going long) on EURZAR and USDZAR knowing fully well that the American economy has a different bias than the European monetary authorities, therefore by spreading risk between EURZAR and USDZAR will lower losses if the USD goes in the opposite direction quickly, allowing you to adjust your portfolio. This learned friend of mine went on to explain that for pairs that are negatively correlated, like the EURZAR and the ZARJPY can be used for hedging purposes through the use of the different pip values ( PIP is the smallest move in the price of a currency pair). Hedging is the opening of a position with the purpose of offsetting any gain or loss on the other transaction. Assume the value of the pip move in EURZAR is $10 for a lot of 100,000 and the value of a pip move in ZARJPY is $8 or a lot of 100,000. Knowing this can help us hedge our exposure to EURZAR . (Please be aware that certain countries do not allow hedging)
Let say i open a position of 1 short EURZAR lot of 100,000 units and 1 short ZARJPY lot of 100,000 units. When the EURZAR increases by 10 pips, the 1 would in a loss of $100 (number of PIPs X Value per PIP). However, since ZARJPY moves opposite to the EURZAR , the short ZARJPY position would be profitable, nearly up to $80 (this is due to the strong negative correlation). This would turn the net loss of the portfolio into just -$20 instead of the full $100. On the flip side this hedge also means smaller profits in the event of a rally down in EURZAR . However, in the worst-case scenario, losses become relatively lower.
CONCLUSION
All traders regardless at which stage you are, from novice to grand-master, there is need to have an appreciation of correlations and how they affect your portfolio. work towards:
1.Eliminating contra-trades (Trades that cancel each other out)
2.Diversify Risk. By not putting your eggs in one basket. By taking advantage of the imperfect correlations, one can open two positions in the same direction knowing that you limit your exposure to one pair.
3. Potentially double up on profits. In our example above, the high correlation between EURZAR and USDZAR , would mean that if you open a position one of the pairs you can open a similar position on the other pairs thus potentially doubling profits and vice versa.
4. Hedging. This usually results in lower profits, but it also minimises your losses.
5. Confirm break outs and avoid fake outs. Although I did not discuss this aspect in this article, it is the very topic that will be in my next article that i will be releasing next and will sure be topic that will result in all those finance and economics gurus offering you a 2 minute attentive silence, as they nod their heads to your insightful analysis of the markets. You might even get a "let's chat later privately and explore this in depth, or that's exactly what i was about to say". This will leave you walking a little taller, with a bounce in your step, calling shots. All i am saying is if i can do this, surely you can too.
Takunda Mudenge is a market analyst based out of Zimbabwe, Africa. He writes in his personal capacity and the information is purely for educational and entertainment purposes and should not be construed or assumed to be investment advice.
The information above was collected from various investment websites and literature and all attempts were made to make it into contemporary English.
DIVERSIFICATION IN TRADING| ALL THE QUESTIONS YOU WANTED TO ASK:Diversification in trading:
Why diversify?
Well, the answer is obvious, as even our ancient ancestors figured out that putting all your eggs in one basket is a bad idea.You risk ending up with no eggs at all!
Hence the saying…
Same thing with managing your money. Diversification is not a luxury but rather a necessity.
Usually diversification is a term applicable to portfolios. 30% cash, 30% stocks, 40% bonds, that’s what books on economics teach us.
But how does one diversify his trading?
Here are the main paths:
1-Using multiple trading strategies
2-Trading Multiple Markets
3-Having a second opinion.(have someone else verify your trades)
4-Having part of your money managed by someone else.
The first two are about how and what to do with your own trading.
The latter two are the so called hedges against yourself.
But anyone who’s been on the markets for the smallest period of time knows that, though great on paper, implementing different strategy trading, while monitoring several asset classes is humanly impossible!
It takes years to master ONE strategy and trading more than 10-15 instruments at once is impractical, and that is within one asset class.
An attempt to trade stocks, currencies and bonds at the same time is DOOMED to fail as these instruments have a wildly different behavior and require a certain approach to trading, even within one trading strategy, while having technical and other differences that taken together will have the best traders annihilate their accounts in weeks.
Thats why I cringe when I see people offering forex, stocks, commodities and IPO signals/management/education. Whatever it is, a poor quality is guaranteed!
So, what to do If you still want to diversify?
Well, there is a way to do just that, while combining the benefits of all 4 mentioned ways of diversifying ones trading:
Account management and signal services.
Aren’t they all fraud? How to pick wisely and what to do with them….?
Read in my next article!
NOTION (0083) - Kajian Potensi TP (TF Weekly) 30/07/2020@09:45pmNOTION VTEC BERHAD (0083)
Notion VTec Berhad is an investment holding company. The Company is engaged in providing management services, and provides a range of services from design to production, tooling development, quality assurance, surface coating and finishing, heat treatment, and shipping and logistics. Its segments include Manufacturing and Investing. The Manufacturing segment is engaged in manufacturing precision components and tools, including design, other related activities and incidental services. The Investing segment is engaged in investment holding and provision of management services. Its products include Data Storage, Digital Imaging and Industrial & Automotive. It supplies precision-turned, milled, drilled and ground parts to renowned multi-national companies all over the world. Its services include product development, tooling and fixtures development, process engineering, mechanical machining processes, surface treatment, precision washing technology and waste water treatment.
SECTOR: TECHNOLOGY
SUB-SECTOR: TECHNOLOGY EQUIPMENT
TOTAL SHARE ISSUE: 504,975,973
PUBLIC FLOAT %: 50.73%
BERITA TERBAHARU: Pada 9 April 2020, Notion VTec menyatakan kepada Bursa bahawa syarikat itu telah memutuskan untuk menceburkan diri dalam pengeluaran peralatan pelindung diri dan komponen ventilator perubatan berikutan pandemik Covid-19 yang melanda seluruh dunia.
Lembaga Pengarah Notion VTec mengumumkan bahawa Notion Venture Sdn Bhd ("NVSB"), anak syarikat milik penuh Notion VTec, telah memperolehi Perakuan Pendaftaran bertarikh 27 Julai 2020 dari Registrar Corp yang mengesahkan bahawa NVSB telah berdaftar dengan U.S. Food and Drug Administration untuk Tahun Kewangan 2020 untuk topeng muka (kecuali alat pernafasan N95) untuk Orang Awam / Personel Penjagaan Kesihatan mengikut Panduan IIE.
NVSB juga telah mengirimkan sampel alat pernafasan N95 ke makmal luaran yang diiktiraf dan hasilnya akan durujuk kepada National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health ("NIOSH") untuk kelulusan. Sekiranya kelulusan alat pernafasan N95 diperolehi dari NIOSH, Notion beranggapan bahawa eksport topeng muka akan menjadi perniagaan jangka panjang syarikat.
Notion juga mengumumkan bahawa NVSB juga telah menghantar permohonan untuk mendapatkan sijil halal ke Jabatan Kemajuan Islam Malaysia ("JAKIM") dan saat ini sedang menunggu hasil permohonan tersebut. Setelah mendapat perakuan dari JAKIM, Syarikat kemudian akan mengeksport topeng muka ke negara-negara Islam tertentu.
ANALISA TEKNIKAL:
NOTION mengalami kejatuhan setelah melakukan corak DOUBLE TOP dan harga telah bertahan dan melantun pada EMA50 (TF Weekly) dan seterusnya melakukan reversal. Harga ditutup pada aras RM0.815 pada penutup minggu ini (30/07/2020 - Khamis). Hari Jumaat (31/07/2020) adalah cuti umum sempena Hari Raya Aidiladha.
Harga perlu melalui paras halangan Fibonacci yang kuat iaitu 0.382 (RM0.850), 0.500 (RM0.925) dan 0.618 (RM1.00) jika ingin meneruskan kenaikan yang lebih tinggi.
#feelfreetodisagree #notAbuycall #tradeatyourownrisk #TAYOR #BursaMalaysia
Today is a Great Day to Hold + Buy DipsRight now people are unnecessarily panic selling stuff they likely don't need to panic sale. As Buffet says, the stock market is a tool for transferring money from the impatient to the patient. Today is a great day to buy dips, diversify and strategically invest so when the market rallies you can thank yourself later rather than unnecessarily panic selling stuff in ways where you can lose thousands upon thousands of dollars. That being said, everything I say is on the basis of opinion. Invest at your own risk and do your own due diligence.
High Net Worth Strategies - What is High Net Worth Investing?What is High Net Worth Investing?
In order to understand what high net worth investing is, you need to understand what a high net worth individual (HNWI) is.
A high net worth individual, as the name suggests, is a wealthy individual with at least $1 million in liquid financial assets.
In the financial industry, the high net worth status is based on how a bank wishes to classify its clients.
There are two characteristics that classify you as a high net worth individual:
Having considerable liquid assets.
Having many investable assets.
As wealth accumulation increased and more and more people have become HNWI, a new class of wealthy people has been created, namely the ultra-high net worth individuals.
An ultra-high net worth individual (UHNWI) is someone with at least $30 million in liquid assets.
Now that you understand what it means to be an HNWI or UHNWI, let’s learn some high net worth investing strategies used by HNWI.
How Do High Net Worth Investors Invest?
Imagine if you could use the same investment principles as the high net worth individuals.
The high net worth investors have a large amount of capital available for investing.
So, how do high net worth families invest their capital?
The traditional asset allocation model for high net investors is 60/40:
60% equities
40% Fixed Income (bonds)
This asset allocation model provides a diversified and more balanced source of income. While it is a rule of thumb, it is still very useful. Equities will pay investors dividends, while bonds will pay investor interest.
This can be considered a form of passive investing.
These types of investing strategies for the high net worth investor will also benefit from stock price appreciation. At the same time, bonds offer stability and income predictability.
The traditional asset allocation model of 60/40 served investors very well in the 80s and 90s, during a time when interest rates were much higher.
Today, bond yields are at the all-time record low, so the traditional asset allocation model won’t work that well in the current environment.
So, it’s necessary to adopt different high net worth strategies.
And, that’s exactly what we’re going to discuss below:
Investing Strategies for High Net Worth Investor.
The high net worth investors are the type of people who know what to do if someone gives them $1 million.
Ask yourself this question:
If you were to inherit today $1 million, would you spend the money?
Or, would you invest the $1 million?
If you’re not going to spend the money, then where should you invest $1 million right now?
Well, the first step is to search for the best brokers for fixed income trading for high net worth and start from there.
You should also diversify your investments and seek opportunities that have enhanced return potential and favorable tax treatment.
Currently, many traders are realizing the old asset allocation model is changing. Instead of using the broken 60/40 asset allocation model, traders are becoming a bit more creative and are currently experimenting with new approaches.
With the new approach, the high net worth individuals are able to diversify their investment beyond the standard stocks and bond model.
Here is an investing strategy for the high net worth investor that includes attractive alternatives.
See below:
High Net worth Strategies #1: Asset Allocation Strategies
Asset allocation is the process of deciding how much of each asset class (equities, bonds, real estate and cash) you should hold in your portfolio. There is no optimal asset allocation model as it all falls back on the money managers’ ability to seize attractive risk-adjusted return opportunities.
For example, a typical high net worth asset allocation model looks something like this:
50% equities
10% infrastructure
10% private equity
10% real estate
10% hedge funds
10% fixed income
The time horizon of this type of asset allocation model is much bigger. This type of investment is typically held for years.
Nowadays, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is widely used to quantify the correlation between risk and the expected return. As the Harvard Business Review explains, CAPM sees risk and return as being decided by a portfolio exposure to market beta.
Check out HERE what is Beta in trading.
By combining the US stocks and global stocks into a portfolio, this will improve the risk and return relative to each of the stock selection. Compared to stocks, bonds are less risky, but they have lower expected returns.
However, most stock model portfolios work well if they include growth stocks, which bring us to the next investing strategies for the high net worth investor.
High Net worth Strategies #2: Growth Stocks
Buying and holding growth stocks is a form of passive investing favored by the high net worth individuals.
For example, if an investor has invested in Amazon stock back in 2015, the investor would have increased the investment by more than 700% by mid-2020.
Growth stocks may or may not offer dividends (the certainly offer fewer dividends than blue-chip stocks), but they remain attractive because they produce returns through share price appreciation. Growth stocks also come with tax advantages because the investor is not obligated to pay taxes while holding the stock. Additionally, if you hold the stock for more than one year, your gains are taxed as long-term capital gains.
The long-term capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than the short-term capital gains.
We’re going to outline additional strategies for establishing asset allocation.
See below:
More Investing Strategies for High Net worth Investor.
If you want to achieve to optimize asset allocation and minimize risk, you need to look into the different approaches that high net worth individuals use.
We’re going to summarize for you five of the most common asset allocation strategies used by HNWI:
1 - Strategic asset allocation adheres to a proportional combination of assets based on expected rates of return. For example, if stocks historically returned 15% per year and bonds have returned only 5%, you would put more weight on stocks.
2 - Constant-weighing asset allocation strategy – with this approach you constantly adjust your portfolio. For example, if stocks would drop in value, you would buy more at a cheaper price.
3 - Tactical asset allocation – helps HNWI to take advantage of exceptional short-term investment opportunities. This is a type of active trading strategy.
4 - Dynamic asset allocation – this is another type of active trading strategy that helps you adjust your portfolio as markets rise and fall. For example, if the stock market is showing weakness or the economy is entering a recession, you sell stocks in anticipation of a drop in the stock price.
5 - Insured asset allocation – this approach is more suitable for the risk-averse investor because it seeks to protect the portfolio value by not allowing it to drop below a certain threshold.
That pretty much sums up how the wealthy stay wealthy and can become even wealthier.
The bottom line is that asset allocation is not an exact science and it all depends on your financial goals and experience.
What you can do as a small investor is to diversify your portfolio. While you might not have the money to buy real estate and a good amount of stocks, you can seek alternative investments.
For example, you can trade stocks, ETFs, currencies and another part of your money to be allocated to cryptocurrencies.
Let’s now see how the ultra-rich invest their money. Are ultra-high net worth strategies different from high net worth strategies? Generally, they are similar, but there are still a few important details to pay attention to.
See below:
Ultra-High Net Worth Investment Strategies.
A new breed of investors evolved among high net worth individuals and these are the ultra-high net worth investors. As explained above, UHWIs are defined as having investable assets of at least $30 million.
So, where do the ultra-rich invest their money?
According to the Wealth Report Attitudes Survey 2020 (see figure below) the UHNWI asset allocation model is more diversified. The Wealth Report revealed that the average UHNWI investment portfolio was invested in each asset class as follows:
27% in real estate.
23% in equities.
17% in bonds and fixed income.
11% in cash (currencies).
8% in private equity.
5% in collectibles (including art, antiques, and other expensive items).
3% in gold and precious metals.
1% in cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin and altcoins).
We can note that there is an increased interest in investing in the long-term, which is the case for real estate investments.
Additionally, you can see that 11% of the wealth is held in cash, which means UHNWIs are active in the forex market as well. Currency trading for high net worth individuals is again done over the long term.
Now, how the average investor can invest like a billionaire?
Ray Dalio an American hedge fund manager said:
“It’s more difficult to succeed in the markets than it’s to succeed in the Olympics”
For more trading quotes, please see Top Trading Quotes of all Time.
While everyone is saying it’s difficult to succeed in the markets, it’s not impossible.
And, trading like a billionaire is a different ball game altogether.
If you want to replicate the ultra-high net worth investment strategies and be a billionaire someday, these are the 10 things you should be doing:
1. Invest only in what you know.
2. Understand the difference between price versus value. When the price is well below the stock value than it’s the best time to buy a stock.
3. Identify cheap investments (e.g. high net worth cryptocurrency trading).
4. Invest in durable time tested businesses.
5. Research the team management team behind a company.
6. “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful” from Warren Buffett wisdom.
7. Develop a long-term mindset.
8. Invest in Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway stock, which has outperformed the S&P 500 for decades.
9. Invest in overseas stocks.
10. Diversification.
These investing principles can help you invest your $10,000 like an ultra-high net worth investor.
Final Words – High Net Worth Strategies
In summary, when you’re a high net worth investor managing your wealth can be a challenge. The HNWI don’t invest like the average investor, they use ultra-high net worth investment strategies to accumulate more wealth.
The investing strategies for the high net worth investor that have produced the most profits are the ones that are sufficiently diversified. Diversification is key to how wealthy people preserve their wealth and accumulate more wealth.
You can too invest like a wealthy person if you start using the principles outlined through this high net worth strategies guide.
Thank you for reading!
Value Investment - BIDU - Improved Profitability After The VirusAll comments and likes are very appreciated.
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Fair Value and Profit Drivers |
Our fair value estimate is $190 per share, with a 2020 P/E of 31 times and 2021 P/E of 25 times.
We expect a 5% CAGR in online marketing revenue in the next five years, driven by recovery in the longer term. This is because weak macroeconomics (resulting in weaker demand and pricing for ads), substantial increase in ad inventory by Bytedance and Tencent, and moving customers’ landing pages to Baidu’s platform play an important role in the current weakness. We do not expect these headwinds to persist in the longer term, except Baidu’s competitor still have room to increase ad load. As the moving of landing pages is completed, the economy recovers, iQiyi’s in-feed revenue improves after cleaning up unhealthy ads, and video content can be approved more quickly after the 70th national day on Oct. 1, 2019, we expect Baidu and iQiyi’s advertising revenue to recover from a low base.
We expect other revenue to grow at a 17% CAGR in the next five years, driven by strong growth at iQiyi. 49% of the others revenue was iQiyi’s membership revenue in 2019, which will see growth from increasing subscriber number and high-quality original and licensed content at iQiyi. Baidu will spend more marketing dollars up front for app installation and cultivating app usage, but revenue generated from the users will occur during the lifetime of the users. Hence, we expect to see revenue grow faster after initial investments. Should the return on investment be poor, Baidu will have no choice but to cut back on sales and marketing expenses, which will boost margin. DuerOS and cloud are also other areas of investments.
We assume operating margin will rise back to 20.2% in 2024, compared with 5.9% in 2019. Excluding iQiyi, Baidu’s core operating margin is assumed to rise to 20.2% in 2024 from 19.1% in 2019. We think our assumptions of only a small-margin recovery for Baidu’s core operation have sufficiently incorporated the ever-increasing competitive environment in the Internet sector. This is particularly true in searching for general information, because it is still a necessity, and wide-moat Baidu has a dominant market share of over 70% in search. We are confident that Baidu resume growth for search. Our five-year net revenue and operating profit growth are 9% and 40% respectively.
Wide-moat Baidu’s fourth-quarter 2019 results were largely within our expectations, and after fine-tuning our model, we are cutting our fair value estimate to $190 from $199. However, we think the shares are undervalued, as Baidu is on track for improved profitability after the coronavirus outbreak. Fourth-quarter 2019 year-over-year revenue growth was 6%, at the high end of the latest guidance range of 4% to 6% and its previous guidance of negative 1% to 6%. Meanwhile, Baidu core revenue in the quarter grew 6% year over year, excluding spin-offs, at the high end of the latest guidance of between 4% and 6% and the previous guidance of between 0% and 6%. Baidu’s net income was CNY 6.3 billion in the quarter compared with guidance of CNY 6.2 billion to CNY 6.7 billion. Net income of Baidu core rose 84% year over year, at the low end of the guidance of 83% to 90%. Management said it expects 2020 first-quarter revenue to decrease 5% to 13% year over year for Baidu and to drop 10% to 18% for Baidu core compared with advertising peer Weibo’s 15% to 20% drop. We assume an 18% year-over-year decline in the first quarter; a 3% decline in the second quarter; followed by a 9% increase in the second half of 2020; and no growth in the full year of 2020 for Baidu core revenue. Our non-GAAP operating expense plus cost of revenue for 2020 is 7% higher than the annualized level that is based on the more rational level in the fourth quarter of 2019. Our five-year revenue and operating profit CAGR are 9% and 40% (low base in 2019 due to record low margin of 6%), respectively, versus 9% and 11% previously.
Risk and Uncertainty |
We think Baidu faces high levels of risk, given intense competition along with questions as to whether its AI-related investment will generate satisfactory returns.
Though Baidu is the largest search engine in China, it is competing with the other two Internet giants, Tencent and Alibaba, and Google’s potential return to Chinese search market is also a threat. Regarding the search engine business, Tencent invested in Sogou, and Alibaba acquired UC Web, which owns a mobile search engine, Shenma. Competition has extended to each key area of mobile Internet usage, such as navigation, O2O services, online video services and so on. Baidu’s margins have been significantly dragged down by aggressive spending in video content and O2O marketing but recovered to 18.5% in 2017 from 14.2% in 2016 as Baidu divested margin-dilutive businesses.
The major Internet companies in China have been investing in AI-related business, such as cloud computing, voice and image recognition, and autonomously driven cars. At the current stage, it is difficult to predict whether Baidu will be the final winner in AI and whether the returns will reward its investment.
In addition, regulatory risk is a concern. Following the Wei Zexi incident in early 2016, Chinese authorities launched new regulations for online search and advertising, which clearly defined paid search results as advertising. These regulations took effect Sept. 1, 2016. Given stricter standards for online advertisers, Baidu’s online marketing services revenue growth declined to 1% in 2016. If the local authorities release more policies regarding Internet business, such as online advertising and online finance, Baidu’s revenue could be negatively affected.
Since 2017, Baidu has discontinued the disclosure of MAUs for its mobile search and mobile maps, which is possibly due to weaker numbers.
I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.
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All comments and likes are very appreciated.
Best Regards,
I0_USD_of_Warren_Buffet
Binance looking good technically and fundamentallyBNB is a coin with a solid use case within an established company. It has also served as a good diversification to Bitcoin as part of long term portfolios.
Technically it looks as though it could be about to break out of $18.50. It has touched this level four times over the last two weeks. A decisive break of this level could be good confirmation to buy for long term holdings.
Whether it will outperform BTC in the short term is harder to predict. But it could be worth considering to spread some risk for the longer term.
Japan REITs: Hidden Gem to Diversify Your PortfolioJapan has long lost its charm to the international trading community. It has been a boring place to trade in for the past two decades, pretty much. In a mature market like Japan, you can't expect explosive growth like you can find in China.
However, this market offers a great source of diversification and income potential, if you know where you are looking.
The answer lies in Japan REITs. Properties in Japan, be it commercial, industrial, retail, hospitality, or residential, are coveted by mom-and-pop as well as institutional investors from the country and across the APAC region for their stable and (slowly) growing rental income.
The chart shows the largest REIT ETF listed in Japan (blue line) versus JPY and SP500 trendlines. You can clearly see the low correlation between JREIT and SPX.
In times of volatility in the US, and for those with international brokerage capabilities, why not consider this diversifier across the Ocean?
Disclaimers:
GMAS is long a few select names within the captioned ETF.
Investment carries risk.
Investment in foreign dividend stocks is subject to withholding tax. You may be able to claim better withholding tax rate based on your country's double taxation treaty status.
Other income sources / faster growthTrading is a way to make money but unless you start with 3 million it will take a while to get anywhere, and to be able to live off that alone.
If you are doing this right, you will miss out on rallies often, as might happen with Bitcoin here, there isn't that many really good opportunities in my eyes.
Successful people get like 2 trades a week, and even active day traders often say that 1 single trade makes their month and the rest is pointless.
I wonder what people's opinions are on ways to diversify or grow faster.
I made this little list of ideas and for each I tried to find the biggest downsides in my opinion, because that's what I do, I focus on risk and reasons not to do something.
* Look for work at a hedge fund (using a good track record)
- Working hours
- Having a boss
- If they don't understand your strategy they'll be annoying
* Start your own fund
- 1 million tons of regulations
- Costs, have to hire people etc
- PR and networking and all this is 95% of the job 5% is actually being good at buying and selling
* Offer a copy trade service
- Everything you do is visible to everybody in detail
- There are regulations
- This does not pay much does it?
* Offering an education and signal service
- You're in a cesspool of filth, and alot of people will assume immediately you are a scammer
- Most people that sign up are not naturally gifted and you will have to deal with failure
- In professional mode 24/7 (can't troll on social networks anymore :<)
* Trade friends money (on their behalf or borrow)
- Potentially dealing with emotional people on drawdowns, especially if you start with some losses
- Lame and just you're going to be more attached personally to this
- Unless you have billionaire friends...
* At certain thresholds just risk bigger and bigger. Ex: risk 1%/trade, once up 10% risk 2%/trade, then 3% etc
- You could end up giving away what took months to build
- Still goes rather slow if you are not going completely crazy and raising risk little by little
- If your strategy stops working right when you start going bigger you are going to love this
* Start a ponzi scheme but call it an inverted triangle growth factor that mathematically cannot fail
- Great idea!
- Wow why didn't I think of this before?
- What could possibly go wrong?
* Invest in a trashcoin and lose all your money
- Why not?
- To the moon!
- Excellent idea
* Just give up and go back to a regular corporate wagecuck job
- No
- I did my time already
- No
* Start a youtube channel
- Stay poor
- Worse idea
- NO
* Start a website and make money with advertising
- Does this make money?
- About what?
- 900 hours of coding and 4 hours a day to maintain it? (Going to take a while to get started, not sure it works out of course too, probably does not pay much for all the time spent)
* Buy and sell stuff on the internet
- Learning curve
- End up with lots of crap?
- Does this work?
* Start making a video game
- Learning curve here we go again
- Going to take a while
- Might not like doing this after a while
* Get into real estate, buy on a loan and use people rent to pay the appartment
- Super slow actually
- Have to deal with so many things, this does not seem part time, at least at the start when you don't have people working for you
- Learning curve and regulations and I don't even know what else
* Become a CNBC expert
- Oh here we go again with the trolling
- Idk I ran out of ideas
- Ye
* Buy a little spot somewhere and start selling sandwiches
- Is this troll or not I can't even tell?
- Hours
- Raaaaa but it suks
* Beg for money
- This actually seems to be the thing at the current time
- Sad, very sad
- Fierce competition from e-girls for lack of a better term
* Learn to trade stocks and crypto alts, to get more opportunities and grow faster
- Overwhelmed with information
- Correlation?
- Just too much to look at
Trading levels for 5/31/2018Hey guys, here you have the trading levels for Thursday, Wed was a very slow day for us, we had no PivotPoint trades, but we were able to capitalize on one of our other day trading strategies. Moving forward we have some nice resistance at R1, we might look to take some shorts from this PP, but we will have to wait and see what happens overnight. Some of the heavyweights of the Nasdaq keep grinding higher, therefore, we will be careful when taking trades to the short side, and mainly look to take some long trades.
PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN
K.R.S.
Can you apply portfolio theory to forex market?Think of forex (or cryptocurrencies) trading as a creating a portfolio (a "basket" of currencies) and maintaining its good structure by planned rebalancing. It also allows to reduce net risk (diversification! Markowitz like it!). E.g. now I have five positions - pairs with absolutely different currency symbols. Some trades are lossy, some are profitable. All you need in this situation is to manage active positions properly and control risk.