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Looking back at equity factors in Q4 with WisdomTreeAfter three negative quarters, 2022 closed with a bang. Equities around the world delivered very strong returns in both October and November on the back of relatively good news on the inflation front. Therefore, despite a negative December, developed market equities gained 9.8% in Q4, and emerging market equities gained 9.7%. This instalment of the WisdomTree Quarterly Equity Factor Review aims to shed some light on how equity factors behaved in this rebound and how this may have impacted investors’ portfolios. Overall factors performed strongly for Global and US investors. Only Growth delivered an underperformance in Q4. Value, High Dividend and High Quality dividend payers delivered the strongest performance in both regions. In Europe, Small Cap stocks performed the best, followed by Value and High Dividend stocks. In emerging markets, Value and High Quality dividend payers delivered the strongest outperformance. Looking forward to 2023, the same issues that drove markets in 2022 remain. While inflation has shown signs of easing, we expect central banks to remain hawkish around the globe as inflation is still very meaningfully above target. In an environment where interest rates and inflation remain high, and volatility of both equities and interest rates is increasing, we continue to tilt toward High Dividend, Value and High Quality dividend payers. Performance in focus: High Dividend and Value finish strong In the fourth quarter of 2022, equity markets posted their first positive quarter of the year across regions. In October and November, markets benefitted from positive inflation numbers and increased hopes for a Fed Pivot or at least a pause in rate hikes leading to a sharp rebound. MSCI World gained 7.2% and 7% in those two months, respectively. However, hopes of such a pivot were dashed quickly, with the Federal Reserve Chair making clear in the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that he wanted to see “substantially” more progress on inflation before the hiking would stop. This led the MSCI World to lose -4.3% in December. Overall, factors performed strongly for Global and US investors: Only Growth delivered an underperformance in Q4 in US and global equities Value, High Dividend and High Quality dividend payers delivered the best performance across regions but mostly in the US. In Europe, factors had a more difficult time. Small Cap stocks performed the best, followed by Value and High Dividend stocks but Quality, Momentum and Min Volatility delivered underperformance. In emerging markets, Value and High Quality dividend payers delivered the strongest outperformance. In this market, Quality, Momentum and Min Volatility also delivered underperformance. In Q4, the market environment continued to discriminate strongly between Quality stocks. The definition of Quality and the criteria used have hugely impacted the result. Quality, left unattended, tends to tilt toward growth (investors pay for Quality, after all) and would have suffered from that tilt, as illustrated with MSCI Quality (‘Quality’ in Figures 1 and 2). Highly profitable companies and dividend growers have fared better this quarter, as illustrated by WisdomTree Quality. 2022, the year of the dividends Looking back at the whole year, High Dividend has dominated the factor space consistently across the year. It delivered a 13.4% outperformance to the MSCI World and a 15.2% outperformance versus the MSCI USA. In Global equities, Value and Min Volatility completed the podium with 8.3% of outperformance. In the US, the podium is a bit different, with WisdomTree Quality (that is, High Quality dividend payers) finishing second (+11.4%) and Min Volatility and Value coming third and fourth. In both regions, Growth and Quality (with its growth tilt) were the only factors to deliver underperformance. In Europe, High Dividend and Value also dominated the field. Valuations rebounded in Q4 In Q4 2022, valuations rebounded across the board on the back of markets’ positive performance. Small Caps saw the largest increases with +1.7 in Global and European equities and +2.2 in US equities. European and Emerging markets remain quite cheap, leading to factors being cheap as well. Emerging market value is currently priced at a 4.9 P/E Ratio. Looking forward to 2023, recession risk is continuing to rise. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is warning of a recession in the US, a deep slowdown in Europe, and a drawn-out recession in the United Kingdom. While inflation has shown signs of easing, we expect central banks to remain hawkish around the globe as inflation is still very meaningfully above targets. The Federal Reserve made clear in its December meeting that ‘substantially’ more progress will need to happen on the inflation front before hiking stops. The European Central Bank (ECB) projections show inflation is unlikely to reach the 2% target until late 2025, leading to a hawkish turn there as well. The Bank of Japan also surprised markets in December with its own hawkish move. Overall, as we transition to 2023, three questions still remain unanswered from 2022: 1) how sticky will the underlying inflation be 2) how intense will the recession be 3) will we find a solution to Europe’s energy crisis? With markets facing the same issues in 2023 that they faced in the second half of 2022, we continue to tilt toward the strategies that delivered for investors in 2022, that is, High Dividend, Value and High Quality dividend payers. Please note: World is proxied by MSCI World net TR Index. US is proxied by MSCI USA net TR Index. Europe is proxied by MSCI Europe net TR Index. Emerging Markets is proxied by MSCI Emerging Markets net TR Index. Minimum volatility is proxied by the relevant MSCI Min Volatility net total return index. Quality is proxied by the relevant MSCI Quality net total return index. Momentum is proxied by the relevant MSCI Momentum net total return index. High Dividend is proxied by the relevant MSCI High Dividend net total return index. Size is proxied by the relevant MSCI Small Cap net total return index. Value is proxied by the relevant MSCI Enhanced Value net total return index. WisdomTree Quality is proxied by the relevant WisdomTree Quality Dividend Growth Index.
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by aneekaguptaWTE
2
AAP BreakoutBLUF: 20% swing for 2 months at a 5% risk with the potential for a trend breakout. Whether or not you "believe" in a recession in 2023, the idea of one on the horizon should alter how we pick stocks. Jim Cramer has been pushing bargain retailers for months and TJX is up over 40% since May of 2022. Taking the idea of a recession and the movement of money into the bargain or overstock companies can lead us to the auto industry. Benzinga posted on 30 Dec, 22 how much the major car companies have been down. With the decrease in consumer spending on vehicles, the idea here is that the money will shift from new cars to repairing current vehicles through auto parts stores. The three big companies focused on keeping used cars running are Autozone (AZO), Advance Auto Parts(AAP), and OReilly Automotive (ORLY). AZO and ORLY have been performing nicely for multiple years, while AAP is at its Jan 21 low. The company president and CEO stated in the Q3 earnings report that "we're not at all satisfied with this outcome (lagging top-line growth)" and "as we develop plans for 2023 and beyond, we've done a deep dive on the competitive environment and the actions necessary to accelerate growth". This could be the inflection point and turn the company around from a leadership and financial perspective. Turning to the chart. The stock has been following a negative trend since January 2022. The stock has tested and bounced off the $143 low from January 2021. Since this decline began, it has tested the lower trendline and rebounded sharply to the upper trendline lasting, 56, 60, and 36 days. I believe the stock has the chance to continue trending toward the upper trend line over the next two months. If it can break the upper trend and we see continued signs of a recession, it could break out of the negative channel AAP is currently in. The downside is about 5.5% to the recent lows with a 20% upside to the upper trendline. The stock also has a 4% dividend.
NYSE:AAPLong
by fishon2wm
2
During high inflation focus on high pricing power equities2022 continues to prove difficult for investors around the globe. The conjunction of heightened geopolitical risks, increasingly hawkish central banks, and runaway inflation has forced many investors to change tack and modify their asset allocation significantly over the last 12 months. Duration has been lowered across asset classes, and a survey we commissioned1 recently revealed that 77% of European professional investors use equities to hedge against inflation. Fighting inflation by wielding Pricing Power Not all equity investments are equal in the face of inflation. The key differentiator is their ‘Pricing Power’. Pricing Power describes the ability of a company to increase its price without impacting demand or losing market share to competitors. In an inflationary environment, margins are under pressure because companies ‘import’ inflation, whether they want it or not. Overall costs for the companies increase through labour, supply, or energy. The only tool to mitigate the impact of inflation on margin is to increase prices. Companies with Pricing Power will be able to do so the most efficiently. Certain types of companies tend to have higher Pricing Power: Companies that deliver essential services tend to wield a lot of Pricing Power as they have somewhat captive clients. This is the case for many companies in the Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Utility, or Energy sectors. Companies that deliver high-quality products or services and possess a distinct competitive advantage can also increase prices efficiently. Luxury goods companies benefit from their clientele's relatively low price sensitivity. Some companies can benefit from favourable supply-demand dynamics at a particular point in time. This is, for example, the case of semiconductors in 2021 or energy companies this year. History is the best guide to the future As is our habit when trying to assess the future, we turn to the past for guidance. The below graph focuses on US-listed stocks since the 1960s. It assesses the average outperformance or underperformance of different groupings of stocks, since the 1960s, when inflation is higher than the last five-year average. We observe that, on average: High Quality stocks weathered inflation better than Low Quality stocks Value stocks beat Growth stocks High Dividend stocks outperformed Low Dividend stocks Small Cap and Low Volatility did better than Large Cap or High Volatility companies Overall, High Quality, High Dividend and cheap stocks appeared to fare better in high inflation environments. The same analysis on sectors shows that Value-orientated, High Dividend sectors also tend to do better against inflation. Energy, Healthcare, Consumer Non-Durables (Food, Tobacco, Textiles), and Utilities exhibit the strongest average outperformance during high inflation. It is clear here that the quantitative data aligns with our qualitative assessment. The factors and sectors that historically outperformed when inflation was high are those that have the greatest chance to harbour high Pricing Power companies. This should give investors indications on how they could tilt their portfolio to fight inflation. Quality and Dividend Growth to fight inflation In light of the unique challenges equity investors face, High Quality companies focusing on Dividend Growth could help strengthen portfolios. High Quality companies exhibit an 'all-weather' behaviour that tends to deliver a balance between building wealth over the long term whilst protecting the portfolio during economic downturns. Dividend-paying, highly profitable companies tend to: Exhibit higher pricing power allowing them to defend their margins by passing cost inflation to their customer. Exhibit lower implied duration, protecting them in a rate-tightening environment, thanks to a focus on short-term cash flows. Provide a defensive tilt and an enhanced capacity to weather uncertainty.
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by aneekaguptaWTE
$T - Recession? Food, Water, Shelter... Cell Phones - TA & FADid some TA & FA today on a long-term & dividend play I like. AT&T ($T). Are we in a recession, is a recession coming, will things get worse before they get better? People need cell phones. Food, water, shelter, then what? Cell phones! If you are looking for a safe play to start DCA'ing, IMO this is about as good as it gets for a safe, long-term opportunity given the current market. Let me know what ya think, cheers!
NYSE:TLong
by ObiWanJacoby93
1
AGNC new bottom?Here we have a MONTHLY chart for $AGNC, a mid-cap monthly paying dividend REIT (Real estate investment trust). As you can see we breifly wicked to this price before and if you switch to a daily chart there is some evidence for a recovery. That being said, with the increasing rates from the FED, housing prices starting drop as demand lowers, and combined with higher material cost for building homes (starting to shrink), it seems likely we'll see a bear rally, followed by another "bullwhip effect", particularly driven by new homes or lack there of. If you google, "is agnc a good stock to buy", the analysists expect it to reach "$11.86 by Oct 5, 2023" which means you'd effectively double your money in a year, while also receiving ~$12/month for every 100 shares (~$800). Although I disagree and suspect that AGNC will be at best ~$9-10 by that date, I still feel like that this is a great time to SELL PUTS as a means to get paid to DCA into the stock. That being said, I could see the stock reaching as low as $5/share so be careful and DYOR...
NASDAQ:AGNC
by livingdracula
MMM 3M Company 141K Calls, $200 Strike Price, Expiring Sept. 16!I don`t know if you monitored the Option Chain last Friday. I always do that for my clients and I was shocked to see for MMM 3M Company 141K Calls with $200 Strike Price, Expiring Sept. 16! On Thursday we had 70K calls, same expiration date and strike price. It has to do something with 3M's Healthcare Spinoff which sees Roadblock from Veterans, which sued the company to block its planned spinoff of the healthcare business. I bet the call options buyers are thinking that the spinoff will be approved in court by September 16. The stock is one of the Dividend Kings, the company has increased its dividend for 65 years and the Forward Dividend & Yield id 5.96 (4.90%). At this oversold level, with the RSI at 22, i wouldn`t be surprised to see at least a technical bounce to $130, if not even higher. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
NYSE:MMMLong
by TopgOptions
2
AT&T - Future Growth and DividendsAT&T (NYSE:T) shares recently fell by approximately 10% after the firm released its second-quarter earnings. Despite better-than-expected earnings per share and revenue, excitement was muted by cash flow issues. Following the current drop, AT&T's stock yields around 7.3 percent. Furthermore, AT&T is dirt cheap again, trading at approximately 7.4 times forward EPS expectations. The market may be overreacting because the most recent earnings report was strong, and the cash flow decrease is most likely a one-time occurrence. AT&T Financials Furthermore, the corporation has set a clear strategy for future growth over the next several years. Furthermore, AT&T is recession-proof and may profit from a management shuffle. AT&T's downside looks to be limited, and the stock is appealing in this environment. Multiple growth and other factors might cause AT&T's stock price to rise significantly from here while also paying a sizable dividend. AT&T announced non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.65, above average projections by $0.03. Revenue of $29.6 billion was also $130 million more than expected. During the quarter, the business added over 800,000 postpaid phone net adds and over 300,000 AT&T Fiber net adds. While AT&T raised its mobile service revenue forecast to 4.5-5 percent, it lowered its free cash flow forecast to the $14 billion range. The headline statistics for AT&T are impressive, but the cash flow drop is depressing. Cashflows are being impacted by heavy expenditures in 5G and working capital requirements. However, inflation is most likely a role, and when the economy recovers, AT&T's cash flow problems may be resolved rapidly. AT&T's figures were pretty strong. Revenues from standalone companies were $29.7 billion, up 2% from $26 billion in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA increased by $175 million, or 1.7 percent, year on year. In the most recent quarter, standalone adjusted EPS climbed by 1 cent to 65 cents. Perhaps most critically, AT&T's core Wireless Service expanded by 4.6 percent year on year and is expected to rise similarly in 2022 and 2023. In addition, we observe certain FCF remarks implying that the decline in FCF is a transient event. While AT&T's performance have remained excellent, and the company has demonstrated persistence in exceeding consensus analyst predictions in recent quarters, this has not prevented the stock from underperforming its competitors. AT&T's stock has underperformed the market, falling nearly 32% in the previous five years. AT&T's nearest competition, Verizon (VZ), is up marginally over the same time period. T-Mobile US (TMUS) is also higher, while Comcast (CMCSA) has destroyed the competition over the previous five years. If we extend the picture further, we see that AT&T's is down by around one-third during the last 10 years. How much longer will shareholders have to wait for a genuine management revamp? For many years, AT&T's management has done nothing useful with the corporation. For decades, AT&T's stock has been worse than dead money, and it currently trades at the same price it did in 1996. AT&T has become extremely inefficient and has devolved into a bureaucracy that must be changed fast. AT&T requires new management to restore order and return the firm to growth and profitability. AT&T's previous regime, which we don't want. We'd like an expert. We are looking for someone who will offer a unique perspective and creativity to AT&T. We need someone to turn AT&T around and bring the firm back on track. A management revamp would likely be welcomed by the market. High Dividend Yield Furthermore, with its extremely low forward P/E multiple of 7.4, AT&T might experience a slight multiple expansion, resulting in a much higher stock price as time goes on. Even a P/E multiple of nine times, as Verizon has, would result in an increase of around 18% for AT&T. If the company's P/E multiple rises to 10, its share price will grow by around 30%. also,  because of the dividend and the potential for numerous expansions. We recommend owning AT&T
NYSE:TLong
by EQTSHARES
Last Chance to Buy VFCThis is an update to my original post (see below). This recommendation is not for day traders, but for long-term investors, especially dividend investors. VFC has just tagged its yearly basis line on the Bollinger Band. This means that VFC has fully corrected to its mean on the yearly chart. This is an incredibly rare buying opportunity. It is quite likely that price will begin a major long-term cycle back up one standard deviation. This means that you have the chance to enter a high dividend stock with a 100% upside potential in price over the next several years. Recession or no recession, according to the chart, this price has nowhere but up to go. However, always use stop losses as the market can be irrational. See the original post here for more details:
NYSE:VFCLong
by SpyMasterTrades
BHP - Awaiting for buy opportunitiesG'day Traders and Investors, Note: Before reading this, I would like to declare that this is not a financial advice, I am not financial advisor. Any mentioned information is for education and entertainment purposes only and based on my trading and investing strategy. . I may or may not act according to this analysis. Facts: - As of 2022, BHP is the largest mining company in Australia, by market capitalisation and It is one of the very profitable business as most of BHP products are essential for global economic growth. - The company primary operational units are: Coal, Copper, Iron ore and Petroleum. But many are key to the energy transition, to lower carbon world, for example: Copper - has electricity conducting, corrosion resistance and antimicrobial properties and is used in everyday household products. Iron ore - is one of the most sought after commodities in the world and is integral to the steel-making process. Nickel - is a key ingredient is stainless steel and major component in the lithium-ion batteries that are helping power the electric vehicle revolution. Potash - is a group of potassium compounds that will be vital link in the global food supply chain. - BHP also committed to Sustainability and Social responsibility. Read more on www.bhp.com Source: www.bhp.com If you like the idea, please like and comment. Many thanks for your support. Cheers! Jimmy
ASX:BHPLong
by Jimmydpc
5
MapleTree Industrial Trust REITS - longWeekly descending wedge - If it breaks out of the descending wedge, we can see a strong push to the upside. MapleTree Industrial Trust (MIT) owns data centre assets in North America and Singapore. Data centres have been gaining prominence and MIT has been pursuing more growth by leveraging on acquisition of data centres. The total addressable market size of data centre in Singapore alone, in terms of spending opportunity, is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.1% between 2020 and 2025. Thus there is more potential for growth for MIT. I believe this is a long term hold, and dividend yield is 4.46%, which is not bad at all. Gross revenue has been consistently increasing for past 5 years (average 7.07% for year 2017 to 2021). Assets has also been on an uptrend since 2017. Total valuation of the 115 properties held by MIT is S$6,762m, and 41% of those at data centre. Occupancy has also increased from 90.9% to 92.6% overall from 2020 to 2021. Tenancy are also diversified across different trade sectors such as manufacturing, retail trade, financial and information & communications. Long term PT is 3, then 3.3. I think a great area for buying would be 2.4 range. However, it is in a weekly descending wedge. If it does breakout strongly, I will look to buy in on retest of breakout area.
SGX:ME8ULong
by Chartpatternz
FedEx and the Falling Wedge 📈FedEx NYSE:FDX 📦 gave the falling wedge look back in January 2022—after it failed to break-through trendline resistance. Since then, it's been an easy stock to watch bounce around and consolidate into a more defined falling wedge, threatening to break trendline support throughout the month of April. After signaling an inverse head and shoulders coming into May, it was a reliable trade up to 225 resistance before failing victim to the three black crows —right back to trendline support on June 13. 📉 The catalyst was an announcement of a 53% raise of the quarterly dividend that sent a big gap up over 218 resistance/support through 225 to test the very top of the falling wedge trendline. Closing near the highs around 231 resistance will provide room for a breakout, however, it would be better to see a few days of consolidation above 225 before confirming the breakout—on volume—over 231. Depending on what comes out from the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, June 15 will either send this into full breakout mode or send this back toward 218 support. Keep this one on the top of your radar.
NYSE:FDXLong
by zwburger
It's a Story of the Tortoise and the Hare (IBM) 💾 As you can see, International Business Machines NYSE:IBM 💾 has been in a very long period of consolidation. Reasons why this big pennant is incredibly bullish beyond the chart. 1. IBM has everything to prove and the recent earnings beat gives support to this emerging idea of "there's no choice but to succeed". 2. It's been ugly in this bear market, but IBM has consistently resisted action to the downside and remained stalwart throughout volatile price action. 3. There is a parallel channel of support starting back in 2000 that IBM retested and held after succumbing to a 9-year downtrending channel of misery. 4. Again, IBM is sitting above a 20-year range , bounced, and it's toying with the idea of breaking out. 5. If you want a solid dividend with tech exposure, this 4.76% dividend yield is generous. Don't sit on this trade before a break to the upside occurs and you're buying above 150-160. When Big Blue does breakout to the upside, 250-300 is an easy target into 2023-2024 . PLEASE NOTE : For this trade to work, it is imperative for our friends at Internal Business Machines to produce some headlines and reasons for major Wall Street buyers to step in. Enjoy! Zach B.
NYSE:IBMLong
by zwburger
IMPERIAL by name & nature - BUYREASONS TO BE BULLISH Price just reclaimed the 50 MA and is hovering right at the 100 also (£1,817). RSI on the 2 week chart recently turned bullish, coinciding with reclaiming the 50 MA. Trend line + MA cross = Bullish Entry. These are my favourite trades when the two signals cross the threshold on the same candle. Double confirmation. Further upside will see both cross above the 200 MA (the top of the purple channel at £2,575), which will further cement its place in a bull market. Imperial Brands are currently paying out a 7.8% dividend yield. Fundamentally, investors wire going tol flock to dividend paying stocks en masse. They have a price to earnings ratio of 7.27 which is very low by market standards. UK FTSE is trading at The stress of a downturn in market, trade & geopolitical conditions is likely to increase people's dependency on the products they produce. UK stock market is not over-leveraged, particularly not in value stocks like IMB. Has already endured a 6 year bear-market. Initial profit target is at £4.2k-£4.7k (the mid-point), which also coincides with it's prior all-time high. Here it will likely take a breather and form a cup and handle for a year or two (like April 2012 to April 2014). Has the potential to approach the top of the channel at £7k to £14k in the decade ahead. REASONS TO BE BEARISH Across many other assets, I am seeing potential capitulation in stocks going into June/July this year. It could retrace 10-20% along with more risky assets, but I suspect it will hold it's own for years to come. Stop would be at £338 - which would represent a 33% loss. That would put-in a new lower low and likely lead to more downside and a negated bull-run. SUMMARY In times of market conditions and the stagflation that we find ourselves subjected to, IMB is a solid buy and a great risk-reward entry here. Despite it's low expected volatility, it will likely provide a decent dividend and return on investment. IMB has a chance of keeping-up and in fact exceeding inflation. That is not to be sniffed-at, with the meme stocks facing their day of reckoning. We'll keep an eye on this one, as this indicator has provided 2 entries at £1,671 and £1,770 recently. Enjoy and thanks for reading!
LSE:IMBLong
by DigiDavid
1