BHP - Leading power in the Copper business!Overview of our analysis for BHP!
BHP Group Limited (BHP) is one of the world’s leading diversified natural resources companies, with operations in minerals, oil, and gas. Headquartered in Australia, BHP is a dominant player in the global commodities market, particularly in iron ore, copper, and coal.
Strong Financial Performance
Revenue Growth: BHP has consistently delivered strong revenue growth, supported by rising commodity prices and operational efficiencies.
Robust Profit Margins: The company's disciplined capital allocation and cost management strategies have enabled it to maintain high profit margins.
Dividend Yield: BHP offers an attractive dividend yield, making it a preferred choice for income-focused investors.
Copper Market Leadership
Strategic Copper Operations: BHP’s Escondida mine in Chile is the world’s largest copper-producing mine, providing significant leverage to the rising demand for copper.
Green Energy Transition: Copper plays a vital role in renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicles, positioning BHP to benefit from the global energy transition.
Investment in Growth: BHP is actively investing in expanding its copper production, further solidifying its leadership in this critical sector.
Diversified Portfolio and Resilience
Balanced Commodity Exposure: BHP's diversified commodity mix, including iron ore, copper, and metallurgical coal, reduces reliance on any single market, providing stability in volatile conditions.
Long-Term Contracts: The company maintains long-term contracts with key customers, ensuring stable revenue streams.
Operational Excellence: Continuous investments in technology and automation have enhanced operational efficiency and safety.
Sustainability and ESG Commitment
Net Zero Commitment: BHP has set ambitious targets to achieve net-zero operational emissions by 2050.
Sustainable Mining Practices: The company implements innovative technologies to reduce its carbon footprint and water usage.
Community Engagement: BHP is actively involved in community development programs, strengthening its social license to operate.
Entry: 49.63
Target: 73.01
SL: 36.30 - We are currently sitting on strong support zone for the company , which gives us a good heads up for a strong uptrend ahead, the SL is set up on the previous low if we see a huge cooldown in the overall commodity market, but at the current low supply of Copper we beleive that this is just deffensive point to protect the trade.
Dividends
Buy on Weakness BMRI, relatively close to the Bottom.
BMRI has been in a downtrend for 4 months, with the last breaking through the support level of 5400 (January 14, 2025).
cutloss level at support 4450 (-10%) and Target Price 6000 (upper trend line).
Risk and reward ratio 1 : 2.
Buy on Weakness BMRI 4910.
Omnichart - Dividend pays - 2 - DSL,CCIF,JAAA,BUCK,TBIL,BNDJAAA has been the best stable performer. If you want to take risk and earn higher dividend then the right value for them is when their dividend adjusted performance meets JAAA's dividend adjusted performance. Till then stay in JAAA (Its the Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF), the other closer alternatives are BUCK and TBIL. JAAA and BUCK provide excess returns over risk free return of TBIL. JAAA seems to outperform BUCK.
For a long term investor who wants to come out of equities during market turning events on a long term basis (lets say monthly chart) the following strategy may be help grow your wealth/ earn income :
Transfer from equities or risky assets into JAAA (or BUCK/TBIL depending on your preference) and another turn on a long term basis like on a monthly chart slowly scale out of JAAA back into the risk assets of choice.
BTC HALVING APRIL 2024! 479497$As we approach the impending halving event in 2024, slated to commence in a month, speculation arises regarding its potential outcomes. Historical data provides insights into recurring patterns, yet uncertainty looms regarding whether past scenarios will manifest once again.
We invite your insights:
Do you foresee growth or a departure from traditional trends towards decline?
Your perspectives are welcomed and valued.
AUD/USD Gains as US Dollar Weakens Amid Mixed US Data and Tariff### **AUD/USD Gains as US Dollar Weakens Amid Mixed US Data and Tariff Concerns**
The **Australian Dollar (AUD)** strengthened against the **US Dollar (USD)** on **Wednesday**, with the **AUD/USD pair rising by 1.40%** to **0.6333**. The move was driven by **soft US economic data** and renewed **tariff concerns** impacting global risk sentiment.
### **Key Market Drivers:**
🔹 **US Tariffs on China:**
- President **Donald Trump imposed a new 10% tariff** on Chinese imports, adding pressure to global trade.
- China’s **potential retaliation** could impact commodity-linked currencies like the AUD.
🔹 **Mixed US Economic Data:**
- **ISM Services PMI** remained strong at **53.5**, signaling expansion.
- **ADP Employment Report** showed **softer job gains (77K vs. 140K expected)**, weighing on the USD.
- Traders assess **Federal Reserve policy** in light of economic slowdown concerns.
🔹 **Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Policy:**
- The **RBA has kept rates steady at 4.10%** since February, citing inflation concerns.
- Market remains uncertain about **future rate cuts** depending on upcoming data.
### **Technical Analysis:**
📈 **Bullish Momentum:**
- **AUD/USD jumped 1.40%**, recovering from intraday lows.
- **RSI** climbed into the **upper 50s**, indicating growing momentum.
- **MACD** shows weakening selling pressure.
📌 **Key Levels:**
- **Resistance:** **0.6350** (Break above could push for more gains).
- **Support:** **0.6250 - 0.6200** (If risk sentiment worsens, pair may decline).
### **Outlook:**
- **Bullish Scenario:** If AUD/USD **breaks above 0.6350**, near-term gains could extend.
- **Bearish Scenario:** If **trade tensions escalate**, AUD/USD may retreat toward **0.6250 - 0.6200**.
💡 **Conclusion:** The Aussie remains supported by a weaker USD, but **trade-war risks** could cap gains. Traders will watch for **further tariff developments** and **economic data releases** to determine the next move.
chasing $NLY. Can't help myselfI am buying some NYSE:NLY , even though the stock is very overbought in the short term (see Money Flow Indicator at bottom of chart). I like the breakout through the dotted line connecting the highs from Oct 10 and Nov 17. After breaking through this morning the stock pulled back underneath the dotted line, but has now recaptured the high.
I believe that the macro environment supports the idea that the lows may be in for the mortgage REITs. This one trades at roughly 1x book value, while offering a 14%+ dividend. The timing might not be ideal on short time scale (again, it's overbought) but this is intended to be a long-term hold and I don't want NYSE:NLY to completely get away from me.
FMC - A deep value play for the steel stomach investor The Foxx is back.
After the stellar returns of 2024, and by that I mean triple digits %, the Foxx is back to give out a charity to his followers.
FMC
A deep value agricultural stock with rising inventory and low market demand. But, like the market always does - what goes down - goes up ! the demand is expected to go up in 2026-27 and the invesntory goes down at the same time.
Book value per share is ridiculously close to the price.
The Foxx announces a 10,000 stock position on FMC at an average price of 38.10 as per 10th Feb 2025 830am ET
No lines, no colors, no ATH or no fibonnacci .. Just pure value investing.
Do i sound arrogant ? I do and I am. Because i only give out winners. see my previous ideas and like they say - the rest is history !!
Make money
Foxx
$HSY: A Potential Bargain for Dividend InvestorsThe chocolate giant NYSE:HSY might be approaching a price bottom ahead of Thursday's earnings
The stock of The Hershey Company ( NYSE:HSY ) has now triggered my favorite technical indicator, a Bollinger Bands and RSI oversold signal on a weekly chart (see Chart 1)
This suggests that we might see a price reversal soon if the company effectively addresses its current challenges
Earnings Expectations and Volatility:
The options market anticipates a price movement of approximately +/-3.8% following Thursday's earnings
Recent Price Pressures:
- Surging Cocoa Prices:
Cocoa prices have skyrocketed (see Chart 2), but I believe this might be a bubble ready to burst as such short-term sharp rises are usually not sustainable
- Declining Demand:
There's been a noticeable decrease in sweets consumption, influenced by the rising trend of weight loss medications. I can't imagine that humanity will be deprived of sweets forever 😅
Fundamental Insights:
Chart 3 highlights key financial metrics for NYSE:HSY :
- Market Capitalization: ~$30 billion
- Cash Reserves: Approximately $600 million
- Debt: $5.6 billion, indicating a manageable financial structure for a company of Hershey's stature to weather further market turbulence
- P/E Ratio: Now at 17, which starts to look appealing
- Dividend Yield: At 3.7%, it's particularly attractive for European investors seeking income
Investment Considerations:
Given that this potential reversal signal appears on a weekly chart, expect significant volatility around the earnings announcement
Also the bottoming process can take several months and a capitulation event after earnings could be possible
However, with these signals, an attempt at a price recovery around earnings seems quite probable
I'm banking on this one - LONG @ 24.50I missed this one at the close yesterday and tried to get in after hours at 24.65 but failed. Lucky me- I got in this morning at 24.50 instead. After selling NYSE:NU yesterday I am underrepresented in financials, so I'm in here.
Not the prettiest chart, but it's paying me an almost 4% dividend if I have to wait. I don't expect to have to wait long enough for it to matter, it's just a nice "safety net" in case I have to.
Competing trendlines in play here, but this is is a quick flip, so they are likely not to be significantly influential. Just thought I'd point them out here for the chartists among us.
Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position at the close on any day it still rates as a “buy” and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
On the way to Devidend MomentumThe historical track record indicates that the final dividend share for BBRI typically occurs in March. This presents an opportunity to strategically position our portfolio. We can either aim to capture the dividend payout or capitalize on the potential price pullback that often follows the dividend distribution (At ex-date candle gap). To maximize our entry point, we can wait for BBRI to reach its nearest weekly support level, as it is currently trading close to it and being strong support. This approach allows us to potentially acquire shares at a discounted price, especially considering the current downtrend.
NVDA Multi-Asset Income StrategyRecently, I've been looking a lot at Yield Max ETFs and other options-based yield ETFS more generally such as QDTE, XDTE, RDTE, QQQI, SPYI, YQQQ (inverse), etc.
One possible way to outperform SPY & QQQ, may be to consider investing in such ETFs, though this is purely theoretical s tradingview does not provide a quality backtesting software for a complex multi-asset, multi-directional strategy like this. Nothing in this strategy should be considered financial advice and there are various factors to consider, such as beta decay, mismanagement of the ETFs, tax advantages/disadvantages, reinvestment risk, risks associated with options in income-based derivatives, risks with leveraged assets, and the obviously risks with inverse assets.
In this chart, we are looking at the leveraged ETF NVDL, which tracks NVDA. It's important to note that this asset will decay whenever NVDA trades sideways or goes down over substantial periods of time, and when NVDA goes down the negative % returns are multiplied. Therefore a trader or "sophisticated investor" (FINRA term) needs to not only optimize their position size for a trading period, but also optimize the timing of entry's and exits on multiple position. They will also want to model, volatility, decay, and reinvestment risk (arguably the hardest in this case. This post will not discuss the specifics of those and instead, these topics should be considered as a form of "homework" for you, the reader to think about and discuss in the comments as food for thought.
In this theoretical multi-asset income strategy, risk is managed through the use of income based ETFs that are either bullish or bearish, I think of this as " directional income ". In this case, NVDY is the bullish income asset and DIPS is the bearish income asset, both of which pay dividend monthly and their price performance behaves very similar to a leveraged ETF, in the sense that they only really increase when the underlying the underlying asset moves in the direction of the income derivative. Theoretically, by managing position size with the use of a modified Kelly Criterion which accounts for fed rates, the decay of the asset, and timing (through technical analysis, seasonality and quantitative analysis), I wonder if a trader could swing-trade between various income-based derivatives and leveraged assets, in order to optimize both income and grow irrespective of market conditions.
In truth, I'm still not sure if this is a completely degenerate idea no different to the way banks stacked bad loans together in 2008 and slapped a Grade A rating, and in the process over valued quantitative methods (see the book "Quants") as a sort of grad delusion to completely avoid risks, like a doctor wishing to delete pain from the world with an addictive pill, shilled by Big Pharma... Only in this case, instead of CMBS, it's ETF, leveraged ETFs, options on both, creating a derivative, then stacking more derivative on top of that...
Who knows, though... Maybe this could be a way to profit from this madness?
I honestly don't know.
What I do know is, I find the idea of " directional income " as a hedge more appealing than an inverse leveraged ETF and I'm curious how to apply this to either a single asset or multi-asset portfolio. It's a very interesting idea and I plan to spend the year exploring this idea at the cost of my own capital, rather than someone else's capital.
BTC Ultra SNIPER SCALP to 100,000K!!!PLEASE CHECK RELATED PUBLICATIONS BELOW!!!
As mentioned in my earlier (linked below) BTC to 75k chart,
As it happened ditto,
one can sniper it to 100,450 to 101k from CMP with steep SL's to 97,350. remember its a sniper scalp. Stances are marked as such! Follow the new green line marked and link below marks how its been done earlier!
HAUTO: TP NOK 141,- Generous dividends (+25%) [Pink: HOEGF]Some say Car-carrier (PCTC ) trade macro is challenging in, others claim this comes to pass late '26 or '27. All the while generous dividends are an insurance. Short term movements may meet resistance, must hold +100-ish, looking to medio jan 2025 for more upside.
Conensus TP : NOK 141
Darvas Box Strategy - Break out Stock - Swing TradeDisclaimer: I am Not SEBI Registered adviser, please take advise from your financial adviser before investing in any stocks. Idea here shared is for education purpose only.
Stock has given break out. Buy above high. Keep this stock in watch list.
Buy above the High and do not forget to keep stop loss, best suitable for swing trading.
Target and Stop loss Shown on Chart. Risk to Reward Ratio/ Target Ratio 1:2
Stop loss can be Trail when it make new box / Swing.
Be Discipline, because discipline is the key to Success in Stock Market.
Trade what you See Not what you Think.
BTCUSDT 1H Falling wedgePossible long trade on 1 hour chart forms Falling wedge pattern.
The 1-hour Bitcoin chart shows a Falling wedge, indicating a short-term downtrend. However, a bullish divergence in the RSI suggests weakening selling pressure and a potential trend reversal. The price is near a support zone, making a potential long entry appealing, especially if there is a breakout above the upper trendline of the Falling wedge. A target could be set around 71,344, with an appropriate stop-loss placed below the support to limit risk. Waiting for confirmation of the breakout is advised to validate the long signal.
If you found this analysis helpful, please SUBSCRIBE ✍️ and SHARE🙏
Good look! 🚀
52 Week High Breakout - Positional Trade - Long TermDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
52 Week Breakout. Stock has Crossed 52 week High. Keep in watch list. Buy above the high. Suitable for Positional Trade. Stop loss & Target Shown on Chart. Stop loss Trail by 30 SMA. Exit if Price Close below 30 SMA on Weekly Chart.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Trade What you see not what you Think
Its also dividend paying stock.
Eye Keypoints for Potential Reversal (Technicals + Fundamentals)In the past several weeks, we've observed the following market movements:
1. First Uptrend: Over 23 weeks (161 days), the price increased from around 64 to 124 with a substantial volume of 438.94M.
2. First Downtrend: Following this, the price declined over 11 weeks (77 days) from 124 to 108, with a volume of 237.994M.
3. Second Uptrend: The price then rebounded over 18 weeks (126 days) from 107 to 168, supported by a volume of 319.661M.
Currently, we are in the 11th week of the latest downtrend, where the price has decreased from 168 to around 140, with a volume of 282.442M.
Key Insights:
The current downtrend mirrors the previous downtrend in duration (11 weeks) and volume.
The proximity of the current volume to past downtrends suggests we may be nearing a reversal point.
If historical patterns hold, we might anticipate a potential price rebound beginning within the next week or two.
Next Steps:
Monitor for an increase in volume (towards the 300M+ range) to confirm a reversal signal.
Target a potential price high of around 200 to complete this cycle if the upward trend resumes.
Furthermore , if we expect a dividend of 30 Rs next year and the expected interest rate is 15% , then the target price based on the dividend can also be calculated as follows:
Target Price = Expected Next Year Dividend / Expected Next Year Interest Rate
Target Price = 30 / 0.15 = 200 Rs
Conclusion:
While the current short-term trend is bearish (11 bars area), the increased volume hints at a possible reversal soon. With a projected dividend of 30 Rs next year and an expected interest rate of 15%, the target price based on dividends would be 200 Rs. This fundamental target supports the technical signals suggesting potential upward movement. Proper risk management and self-study should be incorporated.