FLIR, somewhat undervalued technology stock on trend line watchFLIR Systems makes high-tech imaging systems. The stock has been selling off since its last earnings report, despite the fact that earnings and guidance both beat analyst estimates. Perhaps the selloff was because the company failed to issue forward guidance, or perhaps it was because free cash flow took an 18% hit last quarter and FLIR announced a 2.5% debt issuance in July. Regardless, FLIR now looks cheap, and sentiment has been improving lately.
Valuation
I expect that FLIR's dividend will yield 1.9% in the next 12 months. Its PEG is about 17, so not great, but not terrible. PSG ratio is 2.72. Again, not great, but not terrible. The real case for the stock being undervalued is that it's near the bottom of its three-year valuation range in P/E, P/S, and P/D terms. Despite the decrease in free cash flow, the company has a 77/100 financial health score from S&P Global. S&P Global also rates the stock 72/100 for its valuation, meaning the stock is solidly, but not extremely, undervalued. One reason I like FLIR is its patent portfolio. Patents granted are a leading indicator of earnings growth, and over the last three years, FLIR has been granted and average of 16 patents per billion dollars of current market cap. That very respectable number puts its patents-to-market cap ratio in the same league as Intel, which ranked 4th in the nation for total patents granted in 2019. In short, FLIR is a leading innovator for its market cap size.
Sentiment and Technicals
Analysts have been steadily upgrading FLIR, and it currently has an 8/10 Equity Starmine Summary Score. Options traders are quite bullish on the stock, with a put/call ratio of just 0.29. The technicals on FLIR are still negative, but improved slightly today to "sell" from yesterday's "strong sell" reading on both the daily and weekly charts. I'll be watching for a bullish cross of the trend line FLIR has formed since February as my buying signal.
Dividends
Coal India Dividend harvesting analysisCoal India Dividend harvesting using a combination of Stock and single stock future.
One dividend announcement date (Let us call it POD, short for Position Open Date)
Buy 1 future lot worth of Stock on the date of dividend announcement
Sell 1 future lot on the date of dividend announcement.
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Be patient until the Ex-Dividend Date
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One day After Ex-Dividend Date Sell the stocks bought on POD & Buy the future back.
Profit loss from both the above positions should be nullified.
Enjoy the dividend in your bank account, that will be deposited by COALINDIA in a few days (Be sure to plan for taxes before you spend it all !!).
Calculating psychological pressure in close or open deltasThis is a bit of an odd one. I just thought it may be interesting to consider whether the percent movement required to get to 20k had a pattern or specific values that helped it grow or shrink.
I think there is a better way of analyzing this; mostly in the deltas of the open/closes themselves without regard to '20,000', as the number is meaningless in a market sense, and only a value 1 below 20,001 and 1 above 19,999
quiz included. Take what you want from it.
The important part is that you think differently, but not so differently that you begin to make decisions that ignore your more trusted signals, or whateveryoumayhave.
edit: nvm you can't see info lines in these I guess lol
just trust the %
Eaton (ETN) Long-Short PlayThe time frame is the daily time frame for this trade.
If the stock closes at the contested zone on the higher side, initiate the trade and close the trade at the stop if the daily price closes above $110. Sale zones are highlighted in yellow to close the trade going into resistance at key price levels.
Can leave trailers on if the stock blows past the resistance zones on a profitable trade, but take 3/4 of the profits off the table to keep it as a profitable trade at that point.
Green Vertical Line:
Date the trade becomes in play, after earnings on Tuesday, November 3rd. Earnings for other companies have experienced drops the weeks prior. Took risky to be in before earnings announcement or a potential contested election on Wednesday. Will have more clarity on whether this is a trade on not on Wednesday afternoon or Thursday Morning.
Orange Lines (Dividend Dates):
Ex-Dividend is November 5th, which means risk for assignments on the credit side, so this will be a debit play.
Dividend is paid out on November 20th.
Expect directional pressure on those dates indicated by the arrow direction due to the dividend announcements.
Risk-Reward Ratio Short: 7.58
Risk-Reward Ratio Long: 4.64
I know, it's scary… But it's on my watchlist. This is one of my favorites in the industry.
It's overall solid. I plan to buy this year.
I think positive future earnings are priced in so I'll wait for people to be disappointed by Q4 :| (If they're not, it's an even stronger buy)
It's at about $0.70 on the dollar according to my latest valuation. I'm kinda waiting for the earnings, really.
It's been pretty solid over the last decade, before 'rona. I don't see why it wouldn't in the future, in fact I believe that it's bound to go up despite the apparent "wedge".
I need to look deeper into the background of the company before really committing.
I may buy before finishing my homework, in which case I'll use a stop loss.
Please don't rely on my opinion. Do your own research (especially since I'm not done with mine)
Long term bullish trendSouth African Rand is entering a relative strength period against the Australian Dollar that unleash 2 trading Ideas.
First Idea: buy for 10-20% profit with similar stop-loss.
Second Idea: buy for long term (at least 1 year) and benefit from both positive interest differential and positive trend for at least 30% estimated gain with 20% stop-loss.
Altria poised to climb from hereOn this week's ISM PMI report, the fastest-growing industry for September was "Food, Beverage, and Tobacco." So I looked at the tobacco space over the weekend and noticed that the tobacco company Altria recently made a fairly large price correction and looks to be making a U-shaped bottom, with an imminent bullish cross on the MACD. With the positive technicals and positive economic data for the sector, it looks like a pretty good buy.
Plus, fundamentals and sentiment look fairly good, too. Altria pays a 9% dividend, and its earnings, sales, book value, and free cash flow are currently priced an average of about 37% below the median price for the last three years. Investors have been discounting tobacco stocks due to competition from e-cigarettes, but the reality is that Altria is poised to capture market share in the e-cig space too, with a couple hundred vape-related patent filings over the past few years. In terms of sentiment, there's 23% upside to the average analyst price target, according to TipRanks, and the Equity Starmine analyst summary score is 9.2/10. Options traders are bullish, with more than twice as many calls as puts.
Consumer staples and dividend payers tend to outperform in a recession, so Altria has potential as a defensive hedge should the recession double dip.
$CSCO - the gambleTook out a call option on this, far in to the future.
There are a few that are being punished and dumping in the short term and trying to pick up a few bucks in case they flip the script.
Very very small investment for this gamble. If we see $47 / share by 10/16 - its a 117% win. I would sell at 50% probably.
ENPH or SEDG or TAN - Lockstep CorrelationSolar Edge stays on my buy list, but Enphase keeps a direct correlation to SEDG with similar P/E ratios, but at the quarter of the cost. Further correlation with the TAN of course, but if you want to track the two inverter companies, you can do so with TAN and at least get dividends :)
DHT Long PlayOn the fundamental side:
- Mgmt reaffirmed dividend of $1.4/sh, ~22% yield. DHT has been consistent with its dividend for 42 consecutive quarters.
- DHT is rather insulated from most economic downturn. One key assumption we have is that we will not see another pandemic quarantine lockdown on the scale of what we saw in March/April. Other than that, DHT actually benefits immensely from any backwardation in oil prices
- If we right and the market is in denial of DHT's dividend, assuming mgmt. team maintains its current track record - we expect DHT to trade up to match its dividend at $13-18/sh
On the technical side:
- On the daily, we see a massive cup and handle accumulation pattern, with measured moves pointing towards the ~$14.5/sh level
- Initial price target level of ~$14.5/sh lines up with Fibonacci retracement to the 50% level
If you didn't know which company this was, would you buy?Would you buy purely on the technicals not knowing what stock this is? It's tempting!
Looking at a long-term monthly chart over a 30+ year time frame you can see each time RSI reached the 32.6 level this stock has bottomed. The large time frame over which this has been observed strengthens my confidence that this could be yet another bottoming for this stock.
The last four instances dividend yield has peaked above the current 7.88% annual dividend yield, this has also corresponded with a major bottom for this stock.
On a weekly frequency, the MACD MAs have been establishing a series of higher lows further confirming a long-term bottom is forming.
Lastly, the 200 Monthly EMA has been a strong support line over this 30+ year time frame. It looks as if the 200 EMA has held once again and price is now working it's way up of this support area.
From a purely technical perspective, I would buy this stock. Even if this stocks hovers sideways along its 200 Monthly EMA there is a nearly 8% dividend to collect.
With all that said, I do think this is a controversial stock but I think there's a compelling fundamental story too. Gross margin % and operating margin % have been steadily increasing over this long time period. There are also new frontiers (such as cannabis $CRON) which have the potential to be profitable investments in the long-run. However, Juul is an example that hasn't worked out well and resulted in losses for the company. The company currently trades at 9.41 full-year forecasted earnings and price-to-sales ratio of 3.85.
I still think this is an opportune time to get in at cheap valuations supported by technicals meanwhile collecting a large and sustainable dividend.
Utilities could substantially outperform this yearUtilities traditionally are a recession safe haven, although in March they fell along with the broader market. There is reason, however, to think they will outperform going forward. According to an analyst poll conducted by FactSet, analysts expect utilities to be the sector least affected by the pandemic, with 2020 earnings down only 1.6% from pre-pandemic forecasts. The next strongest sector, information technology, is expected to take a 6.5% hit. Of the S&P 500 companies that have confirmed their previous 2020 guidance, 53% are in the utilities sector. Here's the link to the FactSet poll:
www.factset.com
Although earnings forecasts for the sector are down only 1.6%, utilities stock prices are down about 16% from their pre-pandemic peak. That suggests that utilities are now trading at a significant discount. Additionally, RYU has a nearly 3% dividend yield and has been a growth sector due to the widespread adoption of renewable energy technologies by both corporations and governments. In 2019, the utilities sector roughly doubled its earnings over the previous year.
In terms of technicals, utilities recently made a bullish MACD cross on the weekly chart. There's a little bearish divergence on the histogram, and the daily MACD is below the signal line, which makes some short-term price weakness a real possibility. For the longer term, however, the technical setup looks good. RYU is sitting atop a block of support on the volume profile, whereas to the upside there's much less volume profile resistance.
Note that RYU is not optionable. If you're like me and you'd like to buy some long-term (2022) option calls, you could look at the XLU S&P 500 utilities fund. I prefer equal-weight funds because they tend to outperform long-term, but in addition to being optionable, XLU has a better dividend yield and a better expense ratio than RYU.
GEO Group IncFirst off, I view REITs in general as completely undervalued in our markets and due a solid run. Now with GEO I see them weathering the "storm" of covid-19 due to them being in a safe niche. They are heavily involved in the "for profit prisons" which I don't see going away any time soon (opposite of commercial office buildings). GEO also has a high dividend yield of over 17% which protects any slight drawdown.
Technically speaking, the monthly candle is consolidating over a historic support/resistance zone. The zone originally acting as reistance, which led to a drawdown of -88% and a 7 year bear market. Acting as heavy support, GEO has seen surges of 175% and 221% from this zone. Add in a sub 35 RSI with volume steady increasing and the bull case gets stronger by the day.