Not going according to planI apologize for not posting much lately.
Work is getting busy and I'm busy most nights creating The Grid.
I'm going to make my indictors available as soon as I figure out how to only make them available for Grid members.
In the meantime, I wanted to bring up something that caught my eye last week.
I couldn't understand why many furu were buying puts and expecting a drop with such confidence the last few weeks.
Then I noticed DIX. DIX is another great measure created by squeezemetrics (implied order book) to monitor short sales on stocks.
If you don't know DIX, I'll create another idea in the future or we can chat about it in the comments below.
The simple of DIX is that when it prints 50% and higher, there is a likely drop coming in.
In this chart I outlined a few points where DIX signalled a sell coming.
If you go to squeeze metrics site, you will find that DIX has been signalling a drop for nearly 2 weeks now.
I think that is where many Furu accounts signalled their patrons to buy puts.
But as I posted in many other ideas over the past several months the market is more stable now because most hedged equity funds are positive gamma.
I started drinking the cool-aid and started dooms-day charting.
I'm starting to believe the market is to well hedged short term to provide any meaningful sell off.
We'll see. Flows are still weak into March then we start analysis of were JHEQX is going to expire that will give a foot hold into summer distributions.
Dix
Massive Bull Trap - Nasdaq 100 IndexThe 2022 March low is a massive bull trap, signaled by trend breaks and a monthly RSI divergence. The setup here reminds me of 1987.
Check out the Sqzme DIX index to see the balance of OTC transactions (Over-The-Counter trades, conducted by hedge funds, banks etc).
DIX indicates a bull trap to a scale not seen in over 10 years. Heavy OTC buy-side initiation occurred during the 2022 Feb-March dip, similar to after the Covid low.
DIX has now fallen back to historical averages, without any equivalent sell-side activity occurring. This indicates that a significant number of OTC customers are now trapped in losing positions.
SPY/QQQ: GIX - Dex - ExplanationData from Squeezemetrics
"When DIX is high, it means big money/dark pools are buying. (red Circle)
When DIX is low, it means they are selling.
When GEX is a high number, it acts as a brake
When GEX is low , it acts as an accelerator."
So Dix means big money is NOT buying right now, pretty obvious. They are telling you otherwise though; "YEARS END RALLY" WS-Pump.
Combine this with Insider Buy/sell charts..makes really rough picture (insiders also nailed the bottom)
Gex is working as a break for now; but you should watch gex; when it is declinging; risk is getting higher...
[SPX] Super TRIN x DIX Mashup... TView Won't Let Us Chart DIX :(I had to restrain my middle school level humor a bit here... professional traders don't laugh at DIX jokes.
TView gods, if you're listening, please integrate SqueezeMetrics data for charting (I'm having to use Paint over here guys): squeezemetrics.com
Got a couple homies in my DMs who love the DIX just as much as I do so figured I'd post about it in case anyone else out there is curious about DIX.
With that outta the way... check out my DIX pic:
ibb.co
Basically DIX is trending down and GEX is trending up, same as the lead up to the March crash.
Historically GEX spiking up through the price is strongly correlated with Price downturns.
What I'm looking for here is an upward GEX breakout, especially up through Price, and DIX downward breakout and sustained divergence.
That is almost certain to drive down Price in the near term.
Also note that the the last 3 GEX Price spikes didn't result in Price downturn even though the two directly before and most historical instances it does. This suggests we're building up for a larger downward Price movement. The only other time GEX and Price behaved like this was the March crash leadup.
This definitely could have saved me from making my short play too early because high DIX is strongly correlated with increasing price (think of DIX as Big Money basically).
So the market hasn't crashed thus far, despite lots of crash indications since early June, precisely because DIX was too high and had sustained divergence over GEX. Basically was almost certain not to crash and I wish I knew about this thing back then!
That's the basic idea here from all the time I've spent playing with DIX.
Let me know your thoughts, hope it's helpful B).
PS: Super TRIN climbing support channel, lets see where it goes!
[SPX x DIX/GEX 2Y] Looks Like a Giant Cresting Wave!Got a tip that led me here: squeezemetrics.com
Then had some fun playing with lines: ibb.co
I don't put too much weight in any given strategy, preferring to average them all against fundamentals but holy shit was I surprised when after diving in from scratch to map the empty chart, it actually turned into a terrifying, accelerating and rising wave that's looking like it's f*cking cresting and about to crash first week of June.
So wild!
I hope all the Bulls are having fun picking up the seashells from the receding ocean...