Get started

Dj30

DAX/DJI bearish or not ?tp1 and tp2 or vice versa ? Please see my first published idea . Is my point in there wrong ? With no healthcare/tax reform in US why is dow30 going up ? On the other hand, the big boys - the whales - those who moves the markets can't go with the trend and with their huge money rapidly clearing the markets . So they can match their big pile of money only on the countertrend - when cohorts of little fish are going upstream the whales are going downstream and vice versa . In the end things come back where they must be even if for the moment they are running in the opposite way . Therefore it may be first tp1 and then tp2 or vice versa . But sooner than later I see a big downfall for both dji/dax because I don't see healthcare/tax reform in US done this year . Even worst I have not seen such high opposition to an US president like against Trump .
FX:GER30
by DoubleMan
US EQUITY INDEX STRAT - FOMC FED: TP ON THE DIP & FADE THE RALLYFED/ FOMC Tactical 18hr trading strategy: 1. With active structural shorts from 2180 (previously discussed/ entered) take profits "early" into the intermediate lows at 2100-2120 that we are likely to see into Fed volatility given hawkish surprise which may or MAY not occur. - Taking profit even at higher levels (if the hike surprise pricing is less aggressive e.g. 2140 only reached) at 2140 is also advisable, given from 2140 we are highly likely to see 2160/80 on the day of a no hike as excitement builds a 1-1.8% rally. 2. Structurally re-short and fade the no hike rally/ exuberance into the highs at 2180 - this strategy effectively pays the 40-80pts in profit ABOVE what would be received without playing the Fed; which in itself is a high 10-25% of the whole initial structural move to 2000 which we are waiting for anyway which is clearly a great tactical opportunity. Risks to the view: 1. The fed does indeed hike, in which case, SPX moves on the day 5-6% lower thus TP is hit "early" and unable to reshort - but the probability of this IMO is close to zero. 2. Of course short risks continue e.g. fed no hike causes ANOTHER leg higher through 2200 but this too imo is unlikely given bulls are exhausted and much of a "No hike" is priced in already.. i dont think US equities have more than a 1-2% retest but fail at highs rally left in them.
TVC:SPXShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
US EQUITY INDEX STRAT - FOMC FED: TP ON THE DIP & FADE THE RALLYFED/ FOMC Tactical 18hr trading strategy: 1. With active structural shorts from 2180 (previously discussed/ entered) take profits "early" into the intermediate lows at 2100-2120 that we are likely to see into Fed volatility given hawkish surprise which may or MAY not occur. - Taking profit even at higher levels (if the hike surprise pricing is less aggressive e.g. 2140 only reached) at 2140 is also advisable, given from 2140 we are highly likely to see 2160/80 on the day of a no hike as excitement builds a 1-1.8% rally. 2. Structurally re-short and fade the no hike rally/ exuberance into the highs at 2180 - this strategy effectively pays the 40-80pts in profit ABOVE what would be received without playing the Fed; which in itself is a high 10-25% of the whole initial structural move to 2000 which we are waiting for anyway which is clearly a great tactical opportunity. Risks to the view: 1. The fed does indeed hike, in which case, SPX moves on the day 5-6% lower thus TP is hit "early" and unable to reshort - but the probability of this IMO is close to zero. 2. Of course short risks continue e.g. fed no hike causes ANOTHER leg higher through 2200 but this too imo is unlikely given bulls are exhausted and much of a "No hike" is priced in already.. i dont think US equities have more than a 1-2% retest but fail at highs rally left in them.
TVC:SPXShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
DOW JONES SHORT: Monthly Divergence, Fed HikeThe Dow reached as low as 17905 earlier in the day, but has since recovered somewhat to 18150. Technically: The Dow is due for a large correction to the downside. There is strong divergence on the monthly chart towards 18500. The target would be the missed monthly pivot at 16300. Fundamentally: US stocks are due for a correction to the downside, because the Fed will hike at least once this year. If they do not hike in September, this will be an opportunity to add to short positions through the election. I am short on the Dow from 18500, and added on the pullback to 18150. This index should reach 16300 given enough time, as the Fed has to hike sooner rather than later if it wants its credibility to remain intact.
FX:US30Short
by Exercise-Discipline