Get started

Dj30

The US30 break down break downSo after yesterday's pullback from the highs, I believe it has a long way to go yet before we see some price stability. Here are a my reasons. 1. MACD showing crossover. 2. Close below upward trending line. 3. Extremely low volatility which may lead to spike in volatility as price picks up rocks on its roll down. 5. Not oversold. 6. Price bounding off contuously from Moving average Low 50.. A break below this and the price movement will start to pick up pace. If you are long here, I'd be considering closing positions as brexit worries continue to increase.
FX:US30Short
by maccabean
APPLE: BULLISH VOL CROSS AND SUPPLY SIDE; BUT DEMAND DEFICIENCYVolume Apple Volume traded up for the first time in 4 days on thursday, increasing 25% from 20m to 26m, whilst this may be considered bearish - as increased selling, it is important to not 26m is still 35%-40% below the 4wk and 6month average. Volume cannot fall forever and we have been trading at extremely low volumes all week, so given these facts, a modest rise from 20m-26m is still bullish IMO given that apple traded at 46m last week, so even at 26m now we are still significantly depressed on the supply side - though the demand deficient problem of the recent times remained rife in the stock yesterday, where the stock fails to attract new liquidity, which is all the stock needs to ask the price up given the perfect, low supply environment apple is currently in. Historical and Implied Vols We continue to have a bullish view from a vols perspective as implied traded flat yesterday, up only 10bps at 21.02. Also, a bullish cross pattern emerged between HV and IV, where HV is crossing lower then IV. The shorter period 5/10 HVs are already trading below IV, but yesterday the 20/30 period HV also made a bid to make a move below IV in the coming days. As i have highlighted from the last bull cycle on the graph, when the 4 HVs traded bid and started falling (to eventually trade below IV), Apples price was bullish, rising over 10usd, such interactions between HV and IV is historically highly correlated bullish behaviour. In april as you can see it was Earnings uncertainty that caused the relationship to unnaturally break down - in previous bulls, the HV < IV has allowed bull runs to continue for several months before. Vol correlation with apples price also traded flat remained above the -90% and maintaining my bullish view with the indicator. Evaluation Much of same from apple, where we are witnessing a perfect "bull run" environment (low all round vols, low volume, low price) but the demand side remains the issue - likely due to apples poor mirco-econ environment of poor confidence/ fear regarding their future performance and the ever looming July Earnings, which is artificially keeping demand low for apple. I dont expect any significant upside today from apple, given fridays are normally the worst day for stocks due to the "end of week" sell-off that occurs as some money managers cannot hold open risk on their books over the weekend. IMO i expect apple to close 99.2, higher if we are lucky. If we dont have a bull run soon, we may not see one until august, given that i expect apples price to trade low/ down in the 3 weeks before earnings as investors remember Aprils tragic sell-off and try to avoid a similar event (even if it is unlikely).
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
US Index Idea - Currently ProfitablePosted this a few days ago.. posting two potential shorting opportunities. We have hit the 200MA on the 1h and the 50MA on the 4H chart. We may get a small bounce up here to start the week and then we will see if we can continue down. Use low leverage and open trades with a small percentage of your account. If you would like to join my investment PAMM account go to my website: www.lukelehepuu.com Twitter: twitter.com Instagram: www.instagram.com Email: info@lukelehepuu.com
FX:US30Short
by lukelehepuu
Looking for signal to short this bloody equity rally?I have a solution. Use the moving average 50 period low. Check the 4h chart on US30. Insert a 50 period moving average low. Insert support and resistance lines. You will notice a couple of things, at the end of the last equity rally, it was profitable to short the market EVERY TIME once the price CLOSED below the 50MA. In other words you couldn't go wrong using this signal. In the current rally, the MA50 has acted as a support EVERY TIME (along with upward trend). A close below this line will be a good time to sell based in historical patterns. A close below the upward trending black support as well will confirm selling signal. We are approaching historical resistance and I'm expecting the price to fall below the MA50 soon - probably this week. The rally has taken many scalps. Don't be cannon fodder. Trade wisely. There are many fundamental reasons why this rally should end, I feel that this rally is purely technical.
FX:US30Short
by maccabean
2
A look at the DJ Transports index to predict market directionThe Dow Jones Transports index is considered a good indicator of what the next move will be affecting the wider market. The reason for this is because transports are a good indication of economic health. Lower patronage and goods moving means lower economic activity. A few notes about the chart. The orange line is the DJ30. 1. Looking at the first green flag in December we can see the start of the diverging indices that were previously highly correlated. The Transports drops off heavily in early December with the DJ30 following soon after, a month later. 2. The low of the Transports comes first and then rises. The DJ30 followed a month later with a low but that low is not matched by the DJ Transports. Again a leading indicator. 3. The DJ Transports spiked downwards on Friday but then regained its level. Should the indicator drop below the support trend again and close, the price could fall much further. If this is not matched by the DJ30, then divergence will continue to increase. 4. MACD indicator show crossover which is bearish. A fall below the RSI support level would confirm bearish direction. 5. It is possible the transports high was hit on the 21st of March. I'm expecting the DJ30 high to be hit within the next 20 days. Possibly as early as next week.
DShort
by maccabean
S&P 500 Looking Bearish.............1. Bat Pattern completed on 3-Nov, Went Down After that but again bounced back. 2. Bearish Divergence in Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts. 3. FED meeting in December, Consumer Confidence & GDP Data on 24-Nov Employment on 4 Dec, Stocks tend to fall 20 days Prior to FED meeting (Just an Observation). Scenario 1 - S&P will hit 20 Degree Slope @ 2100 and will Return (20-27 degree slope and 50-59 degree slope are very common in trend). Scenario 2 - S&P will Make New High of 2160 & will Crash.
FX:SPX500Short
by BrokeButBold
2
Overheated after nice up leg flying with the BAT?Hey fellows, I actually do not trade the DowJones30 but I like I found during my sundays market studies some nice patterns. In the orange box you will find a potential Reversal Zone which is conveyed by three facts: 1. Close to upper Trend resistance line of Trend channel 2. AB=CD pattern 3. Last but not least a bearish BAT, although I do not have a lot of positive experience with harmonic patterns I do like to see them :-) What do you think? Important: :-) If you like my analysis and find it useful, please take a second and hit the LIKE button and follow me. It takes some time to create these posts and your LIKES let me know it is helpful to you. As always, any comments are welcome. Agree or disagree. Please remind yourself that this is just my personal view on the market and you always should do your own analysis before trading
FX:US30Short
by Phenlx
2
An InterestingAnalysis of DJ30 with the MACD technical indicatorWe are now in unfamiliar territory. The MACD technical indicator Moving averages has crossed over above 120 points 22 times since 2003. Of those, 22 times, 19 of them led to at least a mild pullback within a month. 3 times it moved sideways or down where no money could have been made at all within one month. The MACD has crossed over 200 points 6 times since the early 90s, it was then followed by a pull back EVERY time within the month. In 2009, the minimum move was 250 point drop but then it went much higher in the following years. The largest pullback was in 2001 when it dropped 2700 points. The average pull back is around 1000 points, but there is a first for everything I suppose. Will it continue to go higher? As this is a mature market, following years of stimulus and cheap money, my bet is that the market simply doesn't have the fuel to keep going and as the MACD crossover happened at such a high level, I see at the very least around a 300-400 point move down within the month. This presents a very good risk/reward opportunity.
DJ:DJIShort
by maccabean
A crash may occur shortly. No, but really!Here is my logic: 1. Fundamentals don't support record highs. High stock prices don't represent real economic activity. Unemployment. situation still not pre-crises levels yet prices are way above that. 2. Oil showing lack of demand. 3. US dollar becoming more expensive. End of low exchange rate. 4. China weakening as well as imports. 5. End of easy money and fed soon to increase rates. The first rate rise in a while will certainly be a shock. 6. Geopolitical tensions with new sanctions on Russia and a new Iraq war vs Isis. 7. September is a historically the worst month for stocks. 8. We are way overdue for a market correction. 9. Low volatility and consolidation showing breakout is about to happen. I don't think it will be up. 10. Strong resistance about 17100 11. Europe potentially falling back into Recession. In any case, going short is a good idea as the risk/reward ratio is pretty good. September is historically a bad month but October saw the biggest market drops in 1987, 1929 and 2001. I'm saying short the market until the end of October I think there is a good decent chance of some good profits. www.thealphagenerator.com
DJ:DJIShort
by maccabean
5