DOW JONES: Technical pullback possible but 43,700 target remainsDow Jones is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.550, MACD = 276.720, ADX = 11.070), extending the bullish wave of the 1 month Channel Up. This is only the second such wave of this pattern and its first pulled back to the 0.5 Fiboancci retracement level after making a +3.75% rise. It is possible to see such a retrace start either now or tomorrow but on the medium term the bullish target on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension is intact (TP = 43,700).
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DJI
Dow Jones in Long-Term Fibonacci Channel📈 Dow Jones Weekly | Fibonacci Channel in Play Since 2020
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been trending within a well-defined Fibonacci channel on the weekly timeframe since the 2020 lows.
🔹 The price has consistently respected the Fibonacci levels as tilted support and resistance lines—a technical behavior that adds weight to this structure.
🔹 Three major horizontal support/resistance zones are clearly active and validated multiple times (highlighted on the chart).
🔹 Currently, the index is approaching the upper boundary of the downtrend resistance.
📌 The setup suggests it's only a matter of time before we retest this dynamic resistance zone, with potential rejection or breakout to follow.
🎯 Target zone around 45,000 as marked—aligning with previous highs and the upper resistance confluence.
Stay tuned—momentum is building.
#DowJones #DJI #FibonacciChannel #TechnicalAnalysis #WeeklyChart #StockMarket #Resistance #Support #Trendlines #ChartAnalysis #TradingView #US30 #MarketOutlook #PriceAction
DOW JONES 15 year Cycles are coming to play.Dow Jones (DJI) is consolidating on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the past month. Based on a remarkable cyclical frequency as the Time Cycles show, every time this 1W MA50 consolidation takes place since October 2011, it turned into the long-term Support that supported rallies of at least +40.94%.
As their 1M RSI readings also sync, we can expect the current consolidation to end soon and drive the market to at least a +40.94% rise from the 1W MA50. Our long-term Target on this is 59000.
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DOW JONES Inverse Head and Shoulders close to a bullish breakoutDow Jones (DJI) has completed an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, having formed the Right Shoulder supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
The price is now slowly rising to test the upper neckline and if broken, expect a strong movement upwards. Technically, such patterns target their 2.0 Fibonacci extensions. The current one is at 49200 and that's our long-term Target. If you seek lower risk, you may target the 1.5 Fib extension.
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DOW JONES: Turning sideways for summer. Massive rise afterwards.Dow Jones is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.389, MACD = 425.040, ADX = 23.083) but 1W is neutral, a natural outcome of the ranged trading within the 1D MA200 and 1D MA50in the last 3 weeks. It is possible to see the index staying sideways until the end of August and then attempt to complete a +39.50% rise from its bottom, like both prior bullish waves did. Regardless of this a test of the Channel Up top trendline, gives us a fair TP = 48,000 for the end of the year.
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DOW JONES: Inverse Head and Shoulders looking for a breakout.Dow Jones is marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.600, MACD = 267.860, ADX = 21.901) as just now it is attempting to be detached from the 4H MA50. Technically this could be the attempt to break towards the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, after having formed the RS of an Inverse head and Shoulders pattern. With the 4H MACD close to a Bullish Cross, we are bullish, TP = 44,250.
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DOW JONES: Channel Up targeting 43,400.Dow Jones is practically neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.880, MACD = 380.350, ADX = 13.770) as the price is consolidating on its 4H MA50. Despite the neutrality, it remains inside the Channel Up, that is supported by the 4H MA200 and whose 4H RSI squeeze indicates we might be on a similar slow uptrend as late April's. We expect a similar +5.60% rise from the HL bottom, TP = 43,300.
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DOW JONES Holding the 1D MA50 can propel it to 45000.Dow Jones (DJI) contained Friday's Trump-led pull-back just above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), marking the strongest correction since April 21. So far that is purely a technical reaction to the Resistance 1 (42855) rejection a day earlier.
This is forming an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) but above all, as long as the 1D MA50 holds, it is a bullish continuation of April's rebound/ Bullish Leg at the bottom of the long-term Bullish Megaphone pattern and on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line).
As you can see, the 1W MA200 has been the ultimate Support of this pattern and last time it started a rebound that broke above the 1D MA50 and retested it, was on the first Bullish on November 09 2023.
That pull-back held the 1D MA50 and the price action continued the bullish trend until it completed a +23.69% rise, before the next 1D MA50 break.
As a result, as long as the 1D MA50 holds, we expect at least another +23.69% rise on the medium-term, which this times falls on the Resistance 2 level (45100), aligning perfectly for a technical test. Our Target will be a little lower at 45000.
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DOW JONES Inverse Head and Shoulders starting new rally.Dow Jones/ US30 has found support today on its 1day MA50 despite the strong correction.
The long term pattern is an Inverse Head and Shoulders and today's 1day MA50 hold may complete its Right Shoulder.
Go long and target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 50000.
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Dow Jonas - Elliot wave📉 DJI — Elliott Wave Top in Sight?
🔍 A long-term analysis with serious implications...
I've been diving deep into the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), using Elliott Wave principles — and what I see may signal the end of one of the longest bull markets in history.
Elliott was right — the massive bull cycle did arrive and extended well into the 2000s. But now, that journey looks to be nearing its final destination.
Currently, I believe we're witnessing the development of an Ending Diagonal pattern — a structure often seen at the end of a major impulse. This formation appears to be completing a set of blue sub-waves, which in turn cap off the larger green primary impulse wave.
📍 The box marks my anticipated top for the DJI. From this point, I expect a strong reversal and the beginning of a major correction.
Now here's the shocking part:
If this correction plays out in time and reaches the Fibonacci 0.382 level, that would suggest a retracement spanning up to 86 years — yes, 86 years.
This isn’t just about markets anymore — such a scenario could carry massive consequences for the global economy and society as a whole.
If, however, we see a strong breakout above the box, then the ending diagonal thesis would be invalidated, and we might instead be witnessing an extended wave 5 — complete with five internal sub-waves.
But either way — the top is coming. It’s just a matter of when, and how hard we fall.
💬 What are your thoughts? Could we really be on the edge of a generational peak?
DOW JONES new Bull Cycle has started.Dow Jones / US30 has now crossed above its 1week MA50 and has restored the long term bullish trend.
That trend was in risk of getting invalidated but last month's rebound at the bottom of the long term Channel Up and holding Support A, kickstarted the new Bull Cycle.
Every Support A rebound inside this Channel Up technically started a new Bull Cycle.
The less aggressive of those was +57.76%.
This is where long term investors buy and target 57700.
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES: Looks to extend gains to 43,500Dow Jone remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.492, MACD = 410.840, ADX = 32.007) as it maintains the medium term bullish trend inside its 1 month Channel Up. Since the index kept the 4H MA50 intact, it established it as its Support and is now halfway on the new bullish wave. The 2 prior rose by +4.30%, which gives a clear technical target (TP = 43,500)for the next HH.
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Bearish Forecast for the Dow Jones Starting May 15, 2025Bearish Forecast for the Dow Jones Starting May 15, 2025
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is poised to begin a significant decline, potentially as early as today, May 15, 2025, targeting a retest of the price low from April 7, 2025 (~36,611.78), and possibly lower. This movement is driven by renewed trade tensions, disappointing economic data, and bearish market sentiment.
1. Fundamental Factors Driving Potential Decline
Fundamental factors provide the macroeconomic and policy-driven rationale for the anticipated downturn in the Dow Jones.
1.1. Renewed Uncertainty in Trade Policy
The Dow’s rally on May 12–13, 2025, was fueled by optimism over a temporary U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement (90-day truce) announced after talks in Switzerland on May 11, 2025. However, as of May 15, 2025, investor confidence is faltering due to a lack of progress in ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations.
Trigger for May 15: A Reuters report from May 14, 2025, notes that U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are meeting with Chinese officials, but no new agreements have been confirmed. If today’s talks fail to deliver positive outcomes or if President Trump escalates tariff rhetoric, the Dow could plummet, as seen in early April when tariffs triggered a 5.5% single-day drop. The Dow, with its heavy weighting of multinational corporations, is particularly vulnerable to trade war fears, which could drive it toward the April 7 low as investors price in higher costs and slower global growth.
1.2. Disappointments in Economic Data
CPI Reaction: The April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI), released on May 14, 2025, showed inflation at 2.3% annually, below the expected 2.4%. However, the Dow’s decline (-0.6%) on May 14 suggests investors expected a lower figure to support Federal Reserve rate cuts, reflecting skepticism about inflation cooling further.
Producer Price Index (PPI) Release on May 15: The PPI for April 2025, due at 8:30 AM ET (2:30 PM CEST) on May 15, 2025, is critical. A higher-than-expected PPI, potentially driven by tariff-related cost pressures, could signal rising consumer prices, reducing hopes for Fed easing and triggering a sell-off. Consensus expects a 0.2% monthly increase; a reading above 0.3% could echo the April market reaction when GDP contraction fears pushed the Dow to 36,611.78.
Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May 2025, released on May 14, likely showed continued weakness (April: 52.2, a multi-year low). A further decline could heighten concerns about reduced consumer spending, impacting Dow components like Walmart and Home Depot.
1.3. Concerns Over Federal Reserve Policy
On May 7, 2025, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited “elevated uncertainty” due to trade policies, with markets expecting 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, starting in July. If today’s PPI or Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) indicate persistent inflation or economic weakness, rate cut expectations could fade, increasing borrowing costs and pressuring Dow valuations, mirroring the April 7 recession fears.
2. Technical Analysis
The Dow’s initial decline in April was approximately -19.00%, with a second impulse of similar magnitude. Technical indicators suggest a bearish setup for May 15, 2025:
Current Level: The Dow closed at 42,051.06 on May 14, 2025, down 0.6%, testing support at 42,000.
Bearish Signals: A 12-hour timeframe analysis indicates alignment for a decline, with potential bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing) and overbought RSI (70). A break below 42,000 could target the 200-day moving average (40,500) and the April 7 low of 36,611.78.
Price Targets:
Retest of April 7, 2025, low: ~36,611.78
Secondary target: ~35,970.70 (based on Fibonacci extensions and prior support zones).
3. Market Sentiment and Behavioral Factors
Fragile Optimism: The Dow’s 15% recovery from April lows was driven by trade truce hopes and select stock strength. Bloomberg’s May 14, 2025, report notes Wall Street’s rebound is “showing signs of exhaustion” due to trade risks. The Dow’s May 14 weakness, led by an 18% UnitedHealth drop, could spread if negative news emerges today.
Global Correlation: Mixed Asian market performance on May 14 (e.g., Nikkei up 1.43%, India’s Nifty 50 down 1.27%) suggests vulnerability. A lower Asian open on May 15, driven by U.S. declines or trade news, could amplify selling pressure on the Dow.
4. Evidence-Based Framework for the Forecast
4.1. Catalysts for Today’s Decline (May 15, 2025)
PPI Data (8:30 AM ET): A PPI reading above 0.3% could signal sticky inflation, reducing Fed rate cut odds and sparking a sell-off.
Trade Talk Updates: Negative U.S.-China trade comments (e.g., no Geneva deal) could reignite fears, mirroring April 7.
Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Claims above 220,000 (vs. prior 211,000) could signal labor market weakness, fueling recession concerns.
4.2. Dow Scenario
Expect a wave-like decline with corrections. The Dow could fall below 36,611.78, potentially reaching ~35,970.70 if trade and economic pressures intensify. Extreme caution is advised in 2025.
4.3. Global Scenario for S&P 500
I anticipate a wave-like decline with intermittent corrections. I wouldn’t be surprised if the S&P 500 falls below 4,700, potentially reaching 4,200. Extreme caution is warranted this year. There’s even a theory that, starting in 2025, the U.S. dollar could lose 50% of its purchasing power.
Idea:
New Screenshot:
4.4. Oil and Geopolitical Outlook
I expect oil (Brent) to decline to the $50+/- range, from which an upward trend may begin, potentially tied to future military conflicts:
· Europe vs. Russia
· India vs. Pakistan
· Iran vs. Israel
Brent (UKOIL):
Natural Gas:
DOW JONES History shows that we're now targeting 68000.Dow Jones (DJI) recovered its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), sending a clear technical message that the 'Trade War' correction is over and the long-term bullish trend has been resumed.
The bottom of that correction was on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the absolute long-term Support trend-line for the index, having broken by a large extent only during the March 2020 COVID crash.
That was also a bottom for Dow's Bullish Megaphone pattern. The last time that the index handed a 1W MA200 bottom while trading within a Bullish Megaphone was on February 08 2016. On both bottoms, the 1W RSI hit the 30.00 oversold barrier.
In 2016 that bottom rebound initiated a (blue) Channel Up that lasted for almost 2 years and peaked on the 3.0 Fibonacci extension level. If Dow continues to replicate that pattern, we are looking at a 68000 Target (Fib 3.0 ext) by mid-2027.
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DJI – Ready for the Final ActAfter the breakdown below the last support on March 11th, the price pulled back and formed P2.
A frightening drop followed, reaching P3, then a sharp V-shaped recovery up to point (4)—just a few points shy of the Center Line.
If P2 doesn’t get taken out, things could turn ugly again. Because in that case, my new target lies below the white Lower Median Line Parallel, at P5.
Nothing is certain—never has been. But these days, *everything* feels off balance.
The moves are insane. Governments trading ahead of the news, making hundreds of millions at the expense of ordinary people. It’s like reality has left the building.
Tiny positions. Tight stops. Very high risk-reward ratios. And absolutely zero FOMO.
That’s how these markets must be traded.
Anything else, and we’re bound to get wrecked.
\#backfromcontemplation
DOW JONES: Breached the 1D MA200. Tariff War 2018 Recovery aheadDow Jones is on excellent bullish levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.103, MACD = 203.720, ADX = 34.693) and as it crossed today above the 1D MA200 for the first time since April 2nd, and practically validates the recovery from the Tariff War correction, it draws strong comparisons with the last U.S.-China Tariff War in 2018. Both rebounded after highly oversold 1D RSI levels, and the 2019 recovery almost hit the 0.9 Fibonacci level before turning into a less aggressive recovery. The trade is long, TP = 44,100.
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Dow Jones Correction in May 2025: Key DriversDow Jones Correction in May 2025: Key Drivers
Summary: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is under pressure and likely headed for a correction due to the Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy, trade uncertainty from Trump’s tariffs, and weak economic data.
Key Drivers:
➖ Federal Reserve Policy: At the May 6–7 meeting, the Fed is expected to maintain the 4.25–4.5% interest rate due to persistent inflation (2.7% forecast for 2025) and a robust labor market (+177K jobs in April). This dampens hopes for rate cuts, pressuring stocks.
➖ Trump’s Tariffs: New tariffs raise inflation risks and recession fears, reducing the appeal of Dow Jones constituents like Caterpillar and Walmart.
➖ Weak GDP and Global Volatility: A 0.3% GDP contraction in Q1 2025 and declines in Asian markets (1.6–1.8%) signal global instability.
➖ Technical Indicators: DIA trades below its 200-day moving average (~420 USD), with fewer stocks above this level (down from 76% to 55% since January), indicating market weakness.
➖ Outlook: Analysts (Long Forecast) predict volatility, with a potential drop to 38,958 in May, despite an average forecast of 43,370 by month-end. Historically, corrections occur every 1.88 years, and current conditions (tariffs, inflation, GDP) heighten the likelihood of a 10–15% decline.
Target: My downside target for the Dow Jones is 38,555.00.
Current factors and historical trends strongly suggest a near-term correction.
Idea for S&P 500:
$DJI & $NDX at MAJOR RESISTANCEDaily
The TVC:DJI has done well since April & we noticed a sentiment change. This is why we turned bullish. Only problem? Lack of volume. We can see that volume stayed under the pink dots. This is an average of 90 days.
We can also see this by the Money Flow. As of now the lowest peak since mid March on this indicator.
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Weekly
The TVC:DJI RSI hasn't broken the halfway point. This is needed for more bullish momentum.
Money flow is slanting lower. The interesting tid bit is that volume for the week is not bad at all. But compare this to Jan 2024 and 4th quarter of the same year... LOWER.
Posted this yesterday, see profile for more info.
DOW JONES: This is why it targets 70,000Dow Jones is marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.838, MACD = 20.320, ADX = 34.615) as the recovery since last month's low is taking a pause ahead of the Fed on Wednesday. Last month's candle closed with an incredible reversal and all this is just noise for long term investors who look at this very chart you have in front of you. The index is basically on the usual -20% correction it undergoes when it is in the middle of a multidecade Bull Cycle. If this is indeed what many call the A.I. Cycle, Dow has a minimum target of 70,000 expected somewhere in 2032.
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BUYS For the Markets. Wait for BUYS in Gold and Silver.In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of May 5 - 9th.
The Indices are moving higher, and it's buys until they are not. Simple.
Gold is near potential support at 3201. This may present a great buying opportunity once the lows are swept. A weakened USD will help this cause.
Silver has made a bearish market structure shift (MSS), so buys are not yet on the table. If it disrespects a Daily -FVG, then sells are warranted. It is considerably weaker than Gold.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.