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DJI

DOW JONES: Top is being formed, 1D RSI Bearish Divergence.Dow Jones has been trading sideways since the December 28th 2023 High, having tested that Resistance after another three times. Naturally the 4H timeframe is neutral and the 1D technical outlook is about to as well (RSI = 56.255, MACD = 185.180, ADX = 33.836). The 1D RSI in particular is under a LH trendline, which is of the same shape as August 1st 2023, May 1st 2023 and December 13th 2022, all major market tops of the past 13 months. This is a strong technical Bearish Divergence and consequently we expect a pullback to at least the 1D MA50. Based on those past peaks and corrections though, we should be expecting at least a 0.382 Fibonacci pullback, thus our target is near the S2 level (TP = 36,000). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by InvestingScope
1
$DJI Looks okay but $SPX showing more strength, $VIX weak#CPI data is out and it came out a lil higher than expected TVC:DJI broke out of the small downtrend officially yesterday However, volume was weak, likely because of CPI data today Keep an eye on RSI & $ Flow for guidance in direction. Want to see break above for RSI. Holding 36kish is a good sign for AMEX:DIA --------------------------------- Not much on NASDAQ:NDX so focus on SP:SPX it is. RSI shows this to could be picking up steam soon. Looks interesting. However, the $ FLOW could be better. TVC:VIX is weakening. While it roared louder than last time it's already whimpering and cowering. Being weak can be more fuel to the bull case we mentioned a few times. Bumps here & there but #stocks looks to be higher. Tons more data, for more info, see out profile
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$DJI still rangebound, $VIX weakening again, Yields mixedGood morning update. The TVC:DJI is still within the range. Logical as investors are awaiting CPI on Thursday. This will guide on cuts to #InterestRates. The SP:SPX showing some strength & currently in small trend higher. But the CLOSING is VERY IMPORTANT. Day range is nice but always respect the closing. TVC:VIX is weakening again. TVC:RUT is still in a rut 😆 There's a lot of mixed data! --------- #Yields 2yr & less are looking weak & trading under all short term avg's. Longer term are looking better, normalization of curve? Weekly shows huge selloff but RSI is stabilizing. US #Dollar looking to take its current downtrend out. TVC:DXY That's it for now, ENJOY your day!!!
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
U.S Equity Index’s Overview – A Repeating PatternU.S Equity Index’s Overview – A Repeating Pattern The Bull Thesis – Ascending Triangles The 200 day (blue line on each chart) is squeezing price up towards each red resistance line making each chart look like an ascending triangle (evident on every chart). With the 200 day as underside support for price and the 200 day sloping upwards, things remain positive. The Bear Caution – Throw overs, Transportation Lag and the Hidden Wedge We need to be aware and cautious of a throw over top on each chart which is always a possibility. Price on each chart would need to fall back below the red support line (pricing having only been thrown over the red line to come back down again). The DJ:DJT – Transportation (Chart 1) is lagging behind all the other charts and has not taken out its Nov 2021 or Jul 2023 highs. This relative weakness in Transportation is worrying as this index offers an early indication of potentially less manufacturing and goods being transported, with this chart lagging and failing to take out its highs, it could be an early indication of a more pronounced slowdown in the economy. This chart we need to keep a very close eye on. If DJT fails to rise above its red line and loses the 200 Day, this could be a very bad signal. We also need to be aware of how one important chart is showing a rising wedge pattern (Chart 3 – Major Market Index TVC:XMI ). This old school chart is watched by the OG traders and investors as a more general market chart. Lets keep an eye on the upper diagonal on the rising wedge for resistance on this one. A rejection here could be something of an early warning sign and obviously losing the red support line would confirm this. Charts 4 - 6 4. S&P 500 SP:SPX 5. NASDAQ NASDAQ:NDX & 6. US Small Cap 3000 TVC:RUA All these charts appear to be about to break into all time highs, however they are slightly lagging the Dow Jones Industrials TVC:DJI and the Major Market Index TVC:XMI which have broken all time highs. In the Charts 4 - 6 break out above their red lines (above recent all time highs), this could be another confirmation signal of bullish momentum. Obviously a rejection at this level does not bode well. SUMMARY In this hard to navigate market environment we need to pay attention to DJT (Chart 1) and XMI (Chart3) as they provide clear boundaries that we can watch for hidden bear signal warnings. On the contrary, in the even these charts and charts 4 - 6 breach their respective resistance levels mentioned above we can be assured that the wind is at out back in this currently confusingly bullish market. If you like this overview please let me know and I will complete similar overviews for other markets and indices. Thanks for reading PUKA
TVC:XMI
by PukaCharts
DOW JONES Correction has started. Where can it stop?Dow Jones (DJI) started a strong decline since our December 29 2023 sell call (see chart below), the strongest since the remarkable rally started on the October 29 bottom: On today's analysis, we want to look into the same market dynamics and the pattern we drew 10 days ago but this time on the 1D time-frame. What stands out the most is that this time on the January 02 2024 High, the RSI peak that was made a few days back on December 19 2023 (hence the Bearish Divergence) was a (much) Higher High that the previous two (red arrows down) on the Higher Highs trend-line (July 26 2023 and April 13 2023), that was made on the vastly overbought level of 87.50 (highest since January 11 2018). Our short-term target remains 36750, which represents the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the Jan 02 High. The other feature on this 1D chart that stands out is the 38.50 1D RSI Support, which provided rebounds on May 25 2023 (long-term) and August 24 2023 (short-term). That RSI Support reveals where our first buy attempt should be. Price-wise that could be as low was the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (35100) of the October 27 Low. By the time it potentially makes contact with it, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) could be there as well. A medium-term candidate is also a -4.50% range from the Jan 02 High, which would give us 36150 and is where the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is headed right now. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by TradingShot
1
$DJI now in short term downtrend, NDX, SPX & RUT already wereLooks like the TVC:DJI is in a short term downtrend. NASDAQ:NDX SP:SPX & TVC:RUT all are in short term down trends which begin couple days or so ago. TVC:VIX is at higher end of the recent pattern and it keeps poking it. *(TOOK THIS FROM ANOTHER POST Remember, the more something is poked the weaker it becomes Picture paper holding a marble Poke with a needle Poke enough & that marble falls Same works to the upside)* The TVC:TNX or10 yr #yield looks to be setting up decently on the 4hr intraday. #stocks
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
DJI Dow Jones Fell 8.60% After the Last U.S. Credit DowngradeOn Tuesday, Fitch Ratings downgraded the US debt rating from the highest AAA rating to AA+, citing concerns over "a steady deterioration in standards of governance." This downgrade occurred in the wake of last-minute negotiations among lawmakers to secure a debt ceiling deal earlier this year, which posed a risk of the nation's first default. Following a similar credit downgrade in the past, the DJI Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced an 8.60% decline over a period of 3 months. The downgrade by S&P, one of the three major credit rating firms, took place on Aug. 5, 2011, after another significant debt ceiling battle. As of today, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.15%, reaching its highest level since November 2022. If we are to fell -8.60%, the Price Target for DJI is $32500. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
TVC:DJIShort
by TopgOptions
$DJI vs $NDX vs RatesSince the "outside" day. The DJ:DJI index has flip flopped above and below the top part of the outside day line. It wants to push higher but when NASDAQ:NDX craters, like it's doing today, it's a lil tough. Since we're doing intraday charts, let's do DJ:DJI as well. What's the biggest thing that sticks out to you on the last chart? Hint: Look at the bottom 2 panes. It could all tie in with a bump in higher rates. IMO not a top. Not enough euphoria. But could be a short term top. We'll see.
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
DOW JONES: Under the 4H MA50 for the first time in 2 months.Dow Jones has turned neutral on the 4H technical outlook (RSI = 55.920, MACD = 42.900, ADX = 19.367) as today it crossed under the 4H MA50 for the first time since November 1st. Even though the price remains inside the two month Channel Up, this 4H MA50 crossing constitutes the first validated sell signal coming off the big Bearish Divergence on the 1D RSI which is trading inside a Channel Down. Even though the S1 level is the first level of Support, we expect the pullback to correct a sizeable portion of that rally and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 36,000) around the S2 level with a relative tolerance range up to the 0.382 Fibonacci level. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by InvestingScope
DOW JONES Key trade focused on the MA50 (4h).Dow Jones has been trading inside a Channel Up since the October 27th Low. The MA50 (4h) has been the main support throughout this time, having stayed unbroken since November 1st. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price as long as the MA50 (4h) holds. 2. If the MA50 (4h) breaks, sell. Targets: 1. 38550 (+4.06% rise, the lowest throughout the Channel Up). 2. 36400 (the MA200 4h). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) has been trading under a Falling Resistance, which indicates a potential Bearish Divergence. It favors a break under the Channel Up. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingBrokersView
DOW JONES Huge Bearish Divergence on 4HDow Jones (DJI) is trading within a very aggressive Channel Up since the October 27 bottom that has seen it rise almost by +17%, making new a All Time High (ATH) in the process. In the meantime it is about to hit the Higher Highs trend-line that has been acting as a Resistance, rejecting similar Channel Up patterns since April 14. What is more alarming than this Resistance, is the Channel Down that has emerged on the 4H RSI. The other two similar Channel Down patterns that emerged after the RSI got overbought, did so right before the index peaked on the Higher Highs trend-line, starting two corrective Bearish Megaphone patterns. Those structures reached at least the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level measured from the previous Higher Low, and the 0.618 Fibonacci level from the bottom of the (blue) Channel Up. Based on this occurrence, we expect yet another Higher Highs rejection that will test at least the 0.618 Fib at 36750, which is our current sell target. Potentially, if the selling pressure is pilled up and transitions to the 1D time-frame, it can reach as low as the 0.5 Fibonacci from the October bottom at 35150. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by TradingShot
1
Abnormal DistributionGoing against the norm. Modeling stock markets using non-normal distributions. That is the only way to take into account the massive volatility that markets can reach. arxiv.org Laplace Distributions manage to analyze prices better than normal ones. It is, as if, stock market is not normal, as in abnormal. As if it defies all physics. 2020 surely suggests that. Rest assured, 2020 was not the worst violation of "normal" physics. The 2020 Swan may have made headlines, but 2008 is surely unforgettable for young and old alike. It is an example of how deep and unpredictable a crisis can become. Before the crisis, a plausible risk assessment would give us the following region. This assumption would end up catastrophic. A 2-sigma difference may not seem much, but it ended up being a 40% gap. The 2020 crash shown before, reached a 6-sigma deviation in a shorter timeframe than the following ones. Comparing apples-to-apples with the other charts, 2020 was less than 2-sigma on 300-month length. Suddenly, 2008 looks, and was in fact, more painful than 2020. Sticking to the same interval (monthly) of analysis and with the same length, we go back in time, in 1980s, just after stagflation ended. Once again, investors were baffled to see markets grow and grow, above all expectations. Curiously, Black Monday occurred on the exact 4-sigma limit on the 300M length. Moving swiftly on, we reach the "Roaring '20s". Spoiler Alert, the same happened. Price reached above any possible expectation . An investor in 1926 would do an analysis based on their historical data. They could not have known the future price action. The 2-sigma channel we drew in 1926 ended up deviating up to 6-sigma. As we all know, The Great Depression followed up. That was a similar >6-sigma event. Price reached below any possible expectation . If you believe 2-sigma is all that Dow can do, don't think twice... ...think quadruply (as in 4-sigma) The 2-sigma limit was dwarfed... ...from the scale of the events that followed. After all, stock markets must go in places where nobody believes possible. No second thoughts must flood our minds to reach the top. All hope must be lost to reach the bottom. Extra Charts: A small-looking but deadly bear trap could be all it takes to create a massive bubble. Dividing by M2SL reveals that equities are not that overpriced. They are sitting comfortably at the mean. Has Big Tech grown enough? For 20 years, consumers were the result of the growth of these companies. Now, governments need digital payment systems, digital identities, IoT. All of these will come mainly from existing corporations, not so much from government production. The .com bubble was uncharted territory for technology. Now, supply has developed, and believe it or not, we are still in charted territory. The IXIC/SPX ratio (technology dominance) hasn't even managed to make an all-time high. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
DJ:DJI
by akikostas
9
déjà vuCircle is the most perfect of shapes. It optimizes its area perfectly. An architectural marvel with no point of failure. And it is unique. All circles are similar to each other. Some small, other large. In the end identical. Cycle is the Hellenic word of Circle. I purposefully call it "Hellenic" instead of "Greek" Market cycles are just that, cycles/circles. All of them are identical clones of the original. Price is after all, nothing more than perfect fractals, the equation of which is, and will forever be, unknown to us. FED is the all-powerful entity that gives birth and death to bull markets. Its only weapon is yield rates. Don't go against the FED. Yield rates up = Bull Equity Market Yield rates down = Bear Equity Market Many think this is the other way around, that yield rates kill equity markets. Why do rate hikes help equities though? Because Bonds. Bonds suffer during periods of rate hikes. And they soar when yield rates remain constant or fall. The usual investment strategy of equities+bonds is creating a rapid shift in flow as we speak. For a year, massive amounts of wealth was withdrawn from bonds, and invested into equities. This trend is about to shift rapidly. And the speed of such a shift is extreme. While short-term rates are very fast moving, long-term yields represent a heavy market, and thus are more important in our analysis. I will ignore the FEDFUNDS rate because it represents a fraction of the weight of US10Y. Long-term yields didn't change much in 2007, but the crash was devastating. In 2018 the same happened, but faster in US10Y. The slope was much higher than in 2007. This resulted in a literal black swan event. The consequences of the 2020 crash are still unknown. Moving to today, we witness an unparalleled change in yield rates. This has resulted in massive bond crashes as we have shown before, and will most certainly lead to incalculable effects in the equity market. History has shown that the stronger the rate change, the harder the crash. This makes sense. The higher yield rates go, the greater the incentive to invest in bonds. Be aware, the market is waiting for the FED to trigger the crash. Make sure to pick the correct side when the cycle ends again. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:US10Y
by akikostas
6
Same story, different fuel. Really could have been avoided. Powell had no choice to print during the pandemic, we cannot fault him for that. Ignoring the US Debt problem? Not rising the rates sooner? Not allowing weak banks to fail? Not allowing real estate to be crushed? What is the point of the Interest rate system if you're just going to always pick the light method out that causes a super bubble that will end in chaos. Here we are at 2023 like 1927 where the rate's are lowered and the folk are happy their "homes" will rise in value to lower interest rates. Happy their "stocks will increase" Careful what roller coaster you sign up for because the drops can be brutal. We learn nothing from history.
AMEX:SPYLong
by FederalXBT
4
A downturn is imminent - 10 Year Treasury Note based analysisIn recent years, many of us acknowledge that the term "recession" has been appearing in news and social media outlets at an increasing rate. While it acts as great clickbait, most sources tend to avoid to avoid a more fundamentals data driven approach, but rather are preferential an opinionated viewpoint from which their viewers can relate. Here I propose a more decisive graphical proof of why I believe some sort of downturn is on the (medium term) horizon, using the 10 year US treasury bond as the foundation, and comparing its recent movements to other typical recession indicators at a long timeframe. The top graph shows the US YoY interest rate divided by the US 10 year note. Bonds and the interest rate are very closely economically correlated, deviations in the ratio between these two factors provides a very strong indicator (historically) for recession territory. 7 out of 8 times where the white line around 1.2 has been crossed on the 3M chart, as shown by the bottom graph, unemployment is quick to follow with rapid and sharp increases (beginning from red vertical lines). This white line acts as the point of no return for the economy medium term. The maximum threshold by which historically the balance of the economy tips in one direction, bursting bubbles in favor of what people call a recession, and eventual return to an equilibrium (stability). This was hit in December 2022. While its very hard to tell the exact point where the downturn begins after this point, its obvious (based off this chart alone) one is around the corner. By no means is this solid proof of anything in the future, but a very simplified graphical comparison between the ratio of two major economic data trends and their historical impact on the rate unemployment. If these historic trends continue to remain strong (as they have done with 88% accuracy since 1971) we should expect a significant economic downturn on the medium term timeframe, between 3-18 months from now. This is not financial advice, derive what you will from this data, let this idea act only as a point of interest - however, I urge sensible and thoughtful investing/trading on medium/short term timeframes with a bias towards the downside and continues high volatility.
ECONOMICS:USINTRShort
by Shelly
3
Decoding "THE GREAT DEPRESSION" !!! - #DJIThe great depression VS today's market structure! - trying to find synergies between both timeline's The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1926-1933: An Applied Time Series Investigation I found this interesting how it aligns with today's market sentiment.. chgate.net/publication/314247517_The_Stock_Market_Boom_and_Crash_of_1926-1933_An_Applied_Time_Series_Investigation]https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314247517_The_Stock_Market_Boom_and_Crash_of_1926-1933_An_Applied_Time_Series_Investigation Companys are in the mist of adopting innovative technology, from blockchain technology to artificial intelligence. Hyper inflation begun in 1924 lasting until 1929 until eventually the DJI collapsed 89%. The catalyst to inflation - Hyper inflation. over expanding the currency supply. here's an article of the Dawes plan which would of contributed to hyper inflation. www.bbc.co.uk Todays market structure and sentiment.. DJI This show's the DJI coming to a similar % rally we saw during the great depression... Also signalling a top target for maximum Fibonacci levels, combined with bull flag TP target price.. Pretty scary chart to say the least!!.. But highlighting potential scenario's.. Still a good chance we see a shorter correction before continuing into a hyper inflation period. *Fiat currency - has lost a significant amount of value, from - covid stimulus/aid too Russia/Ukraine now Israel/Hamas. Central banks over expanding the currency supply. The chart's and timeline's match... but The great depression happened in much shorter succession. history often rhymes! - my thesis the great depression is delayed - hyper inflation is yet to come... with that risk on asset's will rise! WHY? The debt ceiling was raised to 35 Trillion dollars until 2025 which insinuates reserve liquidity to recover failing market's - banks and possible real estate with downward pressure on individual companies and business's. countries can't withstand high interest rate's due their current Debt .. currently economy's are expected to retract. Sentiment The US changed the definition of a recession so many are still un- aware that were currently in a recession. talks of just missing one! - which I find pretty amusing! Central banks are back tracking on high interest rates for longer, M2 money supply is contracting to the lowest level since 1960. Now expected 6 rate cuts during 2024! were currently in a speculation rally based off liquidity returning and the fast adoption of technology which is currently propping up the DJI. Likely we see a 30-50% correction for the DJI, But for the reason's above we could see a shorter correction. which would align with the great depression! Let me know your thought's in the comments below.
TVC:DJI
by dibz1996
OUTSIDE DAY for ALL major averagesWhat a turnaround for ALL the MAJOR averages! As we've been saying over and over again....... The END OF DAY IS WHAT MATTERS!!! *Indices formed an OUTSIDE DAY* Outside days can signify 2 things: CONTINUATION OR REVERSAL (of the current trend) Being that the day ended lower, LIGHT VOLUME though, we will take this as a WARNING!!!!!!! RSI fell pretty hard, #stocks could just experience profit taking for a bit. __________________________________________ TVC:VIX roaring & seems 2b stronger this time around. TVC:DXY close to support and seems to be trying to base again. 2 Yr #yield showing positive divergence. 10Yr oversold - don't see anything out the norm in either one of these, yet at least.
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC