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Same story, different fuel. Really could have been avoided. Powell had no choice to print during the pandemic, we cannot fault him for that. Ignoring the US Debt problem? Not rising the rates sooner? Not allowing weak banks to fail? Not allowing real estate to be crushed? What is the point of the Interest rate system if you're just going to always pick the light method out that causes a super bubble that will end in chaos. Here we are at 2023 like 1927 where the rate's are lowered and the folk are happy their "homes" will rise in value to lower interest rates. Happy their "stocks will increase" Careful what roller coaster you sign up for because the drops can be brutal. We learn nothing from history.
AMEX:SPYLong
by FederalXBT
4
A downturn is imminent - 10 Year Treasury Note based analysisIn recent years, many of us acknowledge that the term "recession" has been appearing in news and social media outlets at an increasing rate. While it acts as great clickbait, most sources tend to avoid to avoid a more fundamentals data driven approach, but rather are preferential an opinionated viewpoint from which their viewers can relate. Here I propose a more decisive graphical proof of why I believe some sort of downturn is on the (medium term) horizon, using the 10 year US treasury bond as the foundation, and comparing its recent movements to other typical recession indicators at a long timeframe. The top graph shows the US YoY interest rate divided by the US 10 year note. Bonds and the interest rate are very closely economically correlated, deviations in the ratio between these two factors provides a very strong indicator (historically) for recession territory. 7 out of 8 times where the white line around 1.2 has been crossed on the 3M chart, as shown by the bottom graph, unemployment is quick to follow with rapid and sharp increases (beginning from red vertical lines). This white line acts as the point of no return for the economy medium term. The maximum threshold by which historically the balance of the economy tips in one direction, bursting bubbles in favor of what people call a recession, and eventual return to an equilibrium (stability). This was hit in December 2022. While its very hard to tell the exact point where the downturn begins after this point, its obvious (based off this chart alone) one is around the corner. By no means is this solid proof of anything in the future, but a very simplified graphical comparison between the ratio of two major economic data trends and their historical impact on the rate unemployment. If these historic trends continue to remain strong (as they have done with 88% accuracy since 1971) we should expect a significant economic downturn on the medium term timeframe, between 3-18 months from now. This is not financial advice, derive what you will from this data, let this idea act only as a point of interest - however, I urge sensible and thoughtful investing/trading on medium/short term timeframes with a bias towards the downside and continues high volatility.
ECONOMICS:USINTRShort
by Shelly
3
Decoding "THE GREAT DEPRESSION" !!! - #DJIThe great depression VS today's market structure! - trying to find synergies between both timeline's The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1926-1933: An Applied Time Series Investigation I found this interesting how it aligns with today's market sentiment.. chgate.net/publication/314247517_The_Stock_Market_Boom_and_Crash_of_1926-1933_An_Applied_Time_Series_Investigation]https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314247517_The_Stock_Market_Boom_and_Crash_of_1926-1933_An_Applied_Time_Series_Investigation Companys are in the mist of adopting innovative technology, from blockchain technology to artificial intelligence. Hyper inflation begun in 1924 lasting until 1929 until eventually the DJI collapsed 89%. The catalyst to inflation - Hyper inflation. over expanding the currency supply. here's an article of the Dawes plan which would of contributed to hyper inflation. www.bbc.co.uk Todays market structure and sentiment.. DJI This show's the DJI coming to a similar % rally we saw during the great depression... Also signalling a top target for maximum Fibonacci levels, combined with bull flag TP target price.. Pretty scary chart to say the least!!.. But highlighting potential scenario's.. Still a good chance we see a shorter correction before continuing into a hyper inflation period. *Fiat currency - has lost a significant amount of value, from - covid stimulus/aid too Russia/Ukraine now Israel/Hamas. Central banks over expanding the currency supply. The chart's and timeline's match... but The great depression happened in much shorter succession. history often rhymes! - my thesis the great depression is delayed - hyper inflation is yet to come... with that risk on asset's will rise! WHY? The debt ceiling was raised to 35 Trillion dollars until 2025 which insinuates reserve liquidity to recover failing market's - banks and possible real estate with downward pressure on individual companies and business's. countries can't withstand high interest rate's due their current Debt .. currently economy's are expected to retract. Sentiment The US changed the definition of a recession so many are still un- aware that were currently in a recession. talks of just missing one! - which I find pretty amusing! Central banks are back tracking on high interest rates for longer, M2 money supply is contracting to the lowest level since 1960. Now expected 6 rate cuts during 2024! were currently in a speculation rally based off liquidity returning and the fast adoption of technology which is currently propping up the DJI. Likely we see a 30-50% correction for the DJI, But for the reason's above we could see a shorter correction. which would align with the great depression! Let me know your thought's in the comments below.
TVC:DJI
by dibz1996
OUTSIDE DAY for ALL major averagesWhat a turnaround for ALL the MAJOR averages! As we've been saying over and over again....... The END OF DAY IS WHAT MATTERS!!! *Indices formed an OUTSIDE DAY* Outside days can signify 2 things: CONTINUATION OR REVERSAL (of the current trend) Being that the day ended lower, LIGHT VOLUME though, we will take this as a WARNING!!!!!!! RSI fell pretty hard, #stocks could just experience profit taking for a bit. __________________________________________ TVC:VIX roaring & seems 2b stronger this time around. TVC:DXY close to support and seems to be trying to base again. 2 Yr #yield showing positive divergence. 10Yr oversold - don't see anything out the norm in either one of these, yet at least.
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
DOW JONES Correction expected due to insanely overbought RSI.Dow Jones (DJI) easily hit last week's (December 12) target (37000) at the top of the 2-month Channel Up (see chart below) with the price grinding ever since on its top: That was a short-term signal, today we shift our attention to the medium-term and the 1D time-frame where the 1D RSI is 'insanely' overbought near 87.50, a level it hasn't touched since January 2018. In fact if we look a little longer, we can see a perfectly fitting sequence with today's price action in late 2016. The 1D RSI got hugely overbought at 87.40 on December 13 2016 and pulled-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) before resuming the uptrend. This overbought 1D RSI peak was made after two straight Channel Downs leading to approximately +9.58% and +14.50% rises, which is quite similar to what's been happening since April. This tells us not to engage in any buying any more, even though due to being on the end of year euphoria and post Fed rate cut anticipation, it can rise some more. But the risk is higher now than buying near the 1D MA50 again. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingShot
1
$RSP & $RUT performing better at the moment, vs $SPXAMEX:RSP vs AMEX:SPY Equal weight vs regular #SP500 We can see that equal weight has been performing better Russell 2000 TVC:RUT is no longer stuck in a rut :) It had a fake breakout in the daily charts in August but look at it now. That weekly is looking Nicely! We've stated a few times that we believed these 2 would be moving better than normal averages. We also said TVC:DJI would keep leading, it has. Another new All time high. Another call, NASDAQ:NDX should surpass, it's more aggressive.
TVC:RUT
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
DOW JONES Channel Up still intact.Dow Jones reached the top of the Channel Up that started in late October and turned sideways. The longer this pattern stays intact, the more every pull back is a buy opportunity. The MA50 (4h) is supporting since November 1st, showing the sheer strength of this bullish trend. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. 2. Sell below the MA50 (4h). Targets: 1. 37800 (under the 1.382 Fibonacci extension which was the target top of the mid November consolidation). 2. 35600 (projected contact with the MA200 4h). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) sequences among the two bullish legs are identical, confirming the bullish sentiment towards the 1.382 Fibonacci. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingBrokersView
DOW JONES: Correction imminent. Buy at the right time.Dow Jones made new All Time High yesterday and today reached the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level of the 14 month Channel Up pattern. Needless to say it is massively overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 79.702, MACD = 696.100, ADX = 90.584). The sheer strenght of this rise since the October 27th bottom can only be compared to the first rise of the Channel in October-November 2022. After almost reaching the 0.786 Channel Fibonacci level, it pulled back to the 0.236 horizontal Fibonacci and then moved to a +19% rise before a consolidation that made the Channel's blow off top. Consequently, we cease our buying at the moment and will wait for that short term correction to the 0.236 Fibonacci (36,160). This will be our next buy entry to target the +19% extension (TP = 38,450). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30
by InvestingScope
GENERAL MARKET INDICES REACT POSITIVLY TO FOMCFOMC DAY All Major Market Indices initially making progress higher and reacting positively to the the FOMC meeting. Whilst these are monthly charts I'm sharing the prices are updated as of moments ago. Main comments from Powell Today: 🔸TODAY AT FED MEETING MANY PEOPLE MENTIONED THEIR RATE FORECASTS 🔸THERE WAS A GENERAL EXPECTATION THAT RATE CUTS WILL BE A TOPIC OF CONVERSATION GOING FORWARD 🔸LITTLE BASIS FOR THINKING ECONOMY IN RECESSION NOW 🔸ALWAYS A PROBABILITY THERE IS A RECESSION IN NEXT YEAR The Charts What originally looked like a series of double tops now appear to be showing significant strength. The top 3 charts have a habit of letting us know where the market is going. At present that appears to be higher albeit the Dow Transportation Index is still lagging a little (Chart 1) and technically one would think this would be leading all others. We should still be on watch for a throw over double top, but for now we have nothing to suggest this is the case. If these markets can make support on the red line this could be good solid confirmation signal of price moving higher for longer 😉 Stay Nimble and congrats if your in the green PUKA PUKA
TVC:RUALong
by PukaCharts
DOW JONES Does this rally still surprise you?Two months ago (October 11) we made a bold statement calling for "the start of a new Bull rally under our nose" on Dow Jones (DJI) (see chart below): Many traders/ investors/ market participants have been surprised by the current November - December rally but in reality they shouldn't as the index is methodically repeating the 2016 - 2017 Rising Wedge pattern, as we've shown on that analysis. We are now at the level where the price is breaking above that pattern (blue circle), which comes after the 1W RSI makes a fake-out break breach below the Higher Lows and then rebounds. On the current analysis we expand the chart more, in order to show you that the very same Rising Wedge also emerged from May 2011 to December 2012. We are therefore on a +10 year cyclical pattern which the all three Wedges not only displaying identical break-outs/ fake-outs but also similar duration. The 2011/12 pattern peaked on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension, the 2015/16 a little higher on the 3.0 Fib ext. We can assume that this progression could give a new top on a higher Fib, but if we take the worst case scenario of the model (2.618 Fib), we can expect a High around 42900. Check out also how the Sine Waves grasp fairly accurately the cyclical movement on those bottoms and peaks during these past +10 years. Another important observation is that after the index broke above the Rising Wedge in 2016, it didn't offer any significant dips to buy. Rare buy entry opportunities existed only on the middle trend-line (orange) of the Bollinger Bands. The 2013 break-out gave significantly more dips buy opportunities, 7 in total all marginally below the Bollinger middle, before the 2.618 Fibonacci peak. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
DOW JONES Channel Up still holding, aiming at All Time Highs.Dow Jones (DJI) maintains its bullish trade within the Channel Up pattern that started on the October 27 Low. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting since November 01 and as long as it continues to do so, the index is more likely to test the 36975 All Time High (Jan 05 2022). Especially since it is currently on a 4H MACD Bullish Cross. The previous two MACD Bullish Crosses have delivered rises of around +2.70% to the top of the Channel Up. Another +2.70% rise will send the price above 37000 and that is our target. If however the index closes below the 4H MA50, we will take the long's loss and reverse to a short immediately, targeting the bottom of the Channel Up. If the price closes below it, we will re-sell and target Support 1 at 35300, where potentially contact with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) can be made for the first time since November 02. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingShot
US Economy Has Entered A Potential Parabolic Phase End I think this is the most important macro trend to pay attention to in our economic history, I see many 1930 comparisons with 2023 saying we are at the "1931" collapse point but all economic data is pointing that we are most likely at the 1927-1928 stage and crazy enough when you compare the macro trends they make the same giant symmetrical wedge pattern. Now I'm going to share some archives of The New York Times from the same period to see where the mentality is. -------- November 17, 1927 "98 and interest, to yield about 5.75%" "temporary bonds" -------- October 30, 1928 "London Paper Predicts Crash on Change There It Speculation Goes On. LONDON, Oct. 29.—Speculative activity on the London Stock Exchange which sent prices of certain shares of doubtful value bounding upward, led the Daily Express to issue a solemn warning that a crash was certain to come unless the stock-gambling mania ceased." -------- November 3, 1929 "SEES WALL ST. REACTION. Stock Decline Will Aid Real Estate, Says Mandelbaum." -------- November 25, 1929 "ASKS STATE INQUIRY ON STOCK RECESSION Senator Hastings Wants the Governor to Name Committee of Business Leaders. MENTIONS SHORT SELLING But Finds Law Passed to Prevent It Failed of its Purpose and Was Repealed in 1857. Sees Short Selling a Factor Doubt As to Remedy." -------- Here we are again different stages, different cycles. But the main difference is our system bailed out our crashes since 2001 starting with interest rate cuts, we can clearly see the ups and downs are more violent when the FRED intervenes in the market. Do I suspect we get a giant crash in a few years? unlikely the FRED will not debase / change the rules but stopping a new parabolic run up is much harder to stop. They printed too much currency in 2020 now that inflation is halted via the fastest rate cycle in history where is all this capital going to flow into? correct equities and crypto. Best to remember the 1929 quote of the thought of "Banning Short Selling" my guess is IF this starts to turn into a parabolic secular cycle ending the FRED will start to control the markets and limit ability to sell / short sell or QE / YCC the market during the final stage. We will know if this is repeating if the wedge breaks out from now to early 2024.
SP:SPX
by FederalXBT
DOW JONES Next stop 37000Dow Jones held the MA50 (4h) today after the initial NFP decline. This keeps the Channel Up intact on its upper layers, aiming for a new Higher High. Trading Plan: 1. Buy as long as the MA50 (4h) holds. 2. Sell if it breaks. Targets: 1. 37000 (Fibonacci 1.78 extension, like the Nov 15th Higher High). 2. 35700 (bottom of Channel Up). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) rebounded exactly on the level (Support 1) the Nov 9th did. The two legs are so far very symmetrical and promt to the extension of the Channel Up. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingBrokersView
Profitable InflationEvery chart describes a story. Inflation can be tracked using producer-prices and consumer-prices. Equities are affected by consumer inflation, while commodities by producer inflation. Many of the worlds largest companies are selling services, not commodities. The ratio of the two on the chart above, shows that long-term production cost of commodities is gradually reducing. It also shows periods when production inflation is much more pronounced than consumer one. There is an inherent lag between producers and consumers. First producers take a short the beating... ...then consumers feel the pain. An eye for an eye. Investors have limited options. There is energy to invest in, commodities, crypto, bonds, equities and money markets. There are probably many more options, but these are some of the most well-known ones. The method to invest in them may be via a mutual fund or a direct investment. Let's rate these investment options for their viability. Gold has proven problematic time and time again. How high can Gold even get for demand to sustain? With production cost increasing, an investment in Gold becomes a dilemma. Approximate Gold profits, described by the Gold/PPIACO ratio, seems like a hard win. Crude Oil on the other hand may need some time before it shows its true strength. On the Crypto world, the big boy Bitcoin may dominate. Crypto also seems to progress against Bonds. Bitcoin has survived excellently the rate-hike schedule, keeping it afloat against Bonds. Similarly in the Equity world, the big guys may overperform. The Industrial part of DOW seems like it will show strength against the others. For an investor, few are the viable choices. Bonds don't go well with increasing rates. Gold fails proving as an inflation hedge. Instead, crypto shapes into an equity pillow. Source: @SpyMasterTrades When equities underperform, Bitcoin stays put. Once again, we have reached the same conclusion. The equity market is forced to grow. This chart is a perspective on how (SPX vs Inflation = actual profits) may overperform (Gold vs Commodity Production Cost = actual profits). This shows that equity-profits-after-inflation may be more than any other type of investment. Equities may in fact completely ignore inflation for some years to come. Many of my charts, like this one, have taken me back to 1994, in the pre-.com bubble world. A massive equity bubble may be brewing as we speak. Nothing else besides equities is viable as an option now. Except perhaps money markets. The massive forgotten one. Dollar. Money strength has been low for too long. Perhaps the dollar hasn't spoken its last word. This proves once again that crypto may remain strong. Crypto is currency after all. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas