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Dow Jones ETF (DIA) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:DIA chart anaylsis/mapping. DIA ETF on relative strength compared to recent SPY/QQQ performance, indicating potential market rotation. Trading scenarios: Continuation rally #1 = top range of Fib. Shallow pullback #1 = ascending trend-line (white) / ascending trend-line (green dashed) / gap fill confluence zone. Shallow pullback #2 = gap fills / descending trend-line (light blue) / 78.6% Fib confluence zone. Deeper pullback #1 = Golden Pocket Fib / 200MA confluence zone. Capitulation #1 = 50% Fib / ascending trend-line (light blue). Capitulation #2 = gap fills / 38.2% Fib confluence zone. Capitulation #3 = gap fills / 23.6% Fib confluence zone.
AMEX:DIA
by BlueHatInvestor
General Major Market Indices - An Overview of the MarketGeneral Major Market Indices These six market indices give a very good snapshot of where we are in this difficult to discern market and why uncertainty still lingers as we continue to climb a wall of worry. The Chart ▫️ Every index 1 - 6 below has been rejected or is struggling to make new highs on the weekly timeframe. ▫️ At the same time each chart appears to be finding support on the 200 day moving average (40 week moving average). You could argue that ascending triangles are forming, in which scenario we would await a confirmation breakout above the upper resistance line. ▫️ Charts 1 – 3 appear to be leading charts 4 – 6 - You can see that the DJ:DJT , TVC:DJI and TVC:XMI charts (Charts 1 – 3) have all attempted to break above the overhead resistance and have been rejected or are struggling to break through. - Conversely the CBOE:SPX , NASDAQ:NDX and TVC:RUA charts (Charts 4 – 6) have made lower highs and have not yet reached up and even tested the overhead resistance... For this reason these charts are showing relative weakness. ▫️ In prior Macro Mondays it was made very clear that Charts 1 – 3 can provide advance warning of recession and or bear market declines ahead of charts such as 4 – 6. Charts 4 - 6 are showing relative weakness and appear to be lagging charts 1 - 3, for this reason revisiting this snapshot would be beneficial to see can we get a lead on the S&P500, Nasdaq and US Small Caps. This in turn could give us a lead on the entire market. ▫️ At present we are above the 200 day moving average on every chart and the 200 day moving average is sloping upwards ✅ - This is positive and would reinforce an ascending triangle thesis however at this stage, looking at all the charts a definitive break above the overhead resistance line would be a preferred entry with stop losses placed under that resistance line thats been broken. - A revisit of the 200 day moving average could also be another entry consideration, simply because again you have stop placed under the 200 moving average, defined entries with defined stops under them. In summary, charts 1 – 3 can act as leading indicators of where price will go next in the general market. Charts 4 – 6 are showing relative weakness, potentially making lower highs however this could change in coming weeks as a strong green candle is challenging the recent highs. Ideally we want to see a definitive break above the overhead resistance levels and we would rather not see further overhead rejections or a breach below the 200 day moving average. The beauty of Trading View is that you can revisit this exact chart on my page, press play and see if we have we broken through the resistance lines or fallen below the 200 day moving average, all at a glance. Be sure to make use of it to save you the time and effort of reviewing every chart. You can get a the jist of these major indices all with a glance. Regardless I will do my best to update you here on X. If you like these broader analysis covering multiple stocks in particular index's or in particular sectors, please let me know. What are the components of each index? - This is for those of you who are unsure what each index is made up of and what they represent. 1. Dow Jones Transportation Index - DJ:DJT - The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) is a price-weighted average of 20 key transportation stocks traded in the United States. - The transportation sector acts as a leading indicator as it is further up the value chain ahead of the final products being sold by companies in Dow Jones Industrial Average $DJI. For this reason, in some circumstances we can use the DJT as a helpful leading indicator for the direction of the economy 2. Dow Jones Industrial Index – SDJI - The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes 3. Arca Major Markets Index - TVC:XMI - The XMI is an overlooked chart often utilized by OG traders has been referenced by Sentiment Trader as a leading market index. XMI is a price weighted index consisting of 20 blue chip U.S Industrial Stocks, 17 of which are also in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Within the index there is surprising blend of stocks that include transport, travel, food, pharma, energy and technology. 4. S&P 500 - CBOE:SPX - The Standard and Poor's 500, or simply the S&P 500, is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. 5. NASDAQ 100 - NASDAQ:NDX - The technology index, the Nasdaq-100 is a market index made up of 101 equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index and includes the likes of NVIDIA and the MAANG stocks (Meta, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google) 6. US SMALL CAP 3000 - TVC:RUA - Small-cap stocks are defined as having a market capitalization between $300 million and $2 Billion. Examples would be Upstart and Victoria's Secret. Thanks guys PUKA
SP:SPX
by PukaCharts
2
DOW JONES showing a Bearish Divergence. Expect correction soon.Dow Jones is extending the rally since the October 27th bottom, which was a HL of the dominant Channel Up pattern. The 1D technical outlook is overbought (RSI = 71.474, MACD = 390.490, ADX = 67.776) but the difference maker on the technical field is the CCI metric. Being also overbought over 100.00, it is showing a Bearish Divergence, which was present on the last three short term corrections since the March 15th Channel Up HL. Common characteristic on all three was that the High was formed halfway through the CCI Bearish Divergence and the correction that followed always hit the 1D MA50. Consequently, we expect a correction to start as soon as next week, that will target the 1D MA50, before the Christmas rally begins. Currently the estimated pullback target is at 34,450. See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by InvestingScope
1
The Golden Elephant-- Prologue -- Crises don't come when everybody expects them to. I have said this over and over again, for the last year I've been in this platform. I don't take it back. Finding out the kind of crisis that will come, the time and the severity, is hard. Trading, investing, living, is hard... Some have called me schizophrenic. This is funny. When you say what they want to hear, you are a genius. When science presents something we aren't used to, we take it as impossible. In my last few ideas, I received the "kindest" comments of all. How is it possible... when a chart shows weakness on equities and strength on commodities, it is loved. How is it possible... when a chart shows weakness on gold and strength on dollar, it is hated. In my bio I warned you. You will have to deal with my presence for much, much longer. So here I am again. In front of your face. -- Analysis -- Price discounts everything. The magic of the fractal nature of the stock market satisfies me every time. Chart patterns like flags, wedges, channels, triangles, rectangles, rounded tops, appear everywhere. Some of them have greater strength than others. But each one of them has it's meaning and importance. To get the elephant out of the room, let's look at the historical Gold chart. Do note that this chart measures: How much one ounce of Gold is worth in dollars? In a sense, how precious is a piece of colorful paper compared to a piece of yellow metal? After decades of QE, Gold has trapped itself inside a MASSIVE wedge, that engulfs it's entire lifespan (inside stock market). What is the outcome of such a trap? Usually down. Fractals at their best!!! If one believes in the Dollar Milkshake, they must not believe that Gold/USD will explode. And with Bull-Flagging dynamics in the scarcity of Dollar, what will the outcome be? -- Thought Experiment -- IF a food crisis comes, and you have invested in gold, what would you do? - Find a food market that accepts gold, and purchase food with gold. - Find a gold market and sell gold for dollars, and purchase food everywhere with dollars. Even if you buy stuff with gold coins, the receiver of the coin will go out and exchange it for dollars to pay out their business responsibilities. In both scenarios, gold is taken out of the picture, exchanged for dollars. Either we like it or not, by default we give more value to money because we use it as money. We don't use gold as money. -- Conclusion -- There are two ways price increases. Scarcity and demand. Gold is scarce but who demands it and for what? Dollar is plentiful and everyone uses it. And now, it gets less and less plentiful. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori -- Extra Charts -- Commodities like oil could very well overperform equities. I don't advice for or against any investment. I am not an investor. Trade at your own risk. If one believes in the Dollar Milkshake, then they should invest either in dollars, or in dollar-denominated investments. Question is: What could these investments be, and how will they perform? For more information, I have linked below my two hated ideas.
TVC:DXY
by akikostas
95
The Mute SpeakerPrices never lie. Price is everything. Time however always lies. That's "Theory of Relativity 101". Time stretches and narrows based on boredom, psychology, speed. By taking time out of the equation we transform a news piece into a literature book. Timeless charts are the past, the present and the future. They don't expire. Unlike candles with specific expiration date. Linebreak charts are a portal into the Minecraft world. They serve an important purpose. To dictate/confirm price trends/movements. To see these charts, you must imagine them. We live inside a fake time dimension. We cannot escape it, just like pacmac cannot escape its 2D world. The only thing we can do is image an eternal time. Imagine a future of expensive oil. Imagine an eternal oligarchy of the Big Coin ... ... and the Big Brands. The few (DJI) shall beat the many (SPX). China has become a parasite on its territories. Let us welcome the US Industrial Revolution ... ... and the rebirth of the Japanese economy Imagine all the people. Tread lightly, for this is blocky ground. -Father Stevegory.
AMEX:XLK
by akikostas
BTC | Let NDQ Go Bust!Bitcooooooins... UP! In the recent history, we have had two perma-bull trade-ables, NDQ and Bitcoin. No-one in their real mind would dare to short these 2 years ago... So what if, we could compare these two bulls? Who will survive in the years to come? Who is the record keeper? The answer is NOT as simple as it might seem. Read until the end to find out... 2022 will be marked as the worst year "ever" for equities (except The Great Depression of course). Money got much more precious last year compared to equities. Just by having money, you got "richer" last year. So compared to money, equities did get worse. Items like Bitcoin suffered even worse. A 73% drop compared to SPX is a monumental way to break the crypto mania. Bitcoin has been an over-leveraged, perma-bull trade-able item. I don't know if it is a currency, a commodity or something else, so I call it a simple item. The majority of Bitcoin's gains were thanks to derivatives (trading). The same happens in Equities, but not to such an extent. NDQ is another perma-bull market full of stocks like AAPL and TSLA (everyones' favorites for some reason) Bitcoin is on a whole new level of rapidness... However, there is an exponential cousin to NDQ. That is SQQQ. So how does it compare to NDQ? Since SQQQ is basically 1/QQQ, we will plot the QQQ*SQQQ chart to see the outcome. This reminds me of the diminishing nature BTC_ADDRESSES showed. We can raise SQQQ to the 0.2 exponent to bring it down to reality. SQQQ is moving at the 5th exponent of QQQ. Incredible speeds really... So how do these two lightnings (1/SQQQ and Bitcoin) compare?? I told you that the answer is not straight-forward. And some short technical analysis: This chart above describes the popular over-leveraged period when everyone traded Bitcoin. There is a longer-term ticker showing the entire history of Bitoin ( INDEX:BTCUSD ) It shows us yet another perspective: If these charts are true and breakout as intended, what could this mean for equities? Just how big of a bubble are equities in? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. The popular knowledge is not the truth, it is just a famous lie.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by akikostas
42
Top of the world... again.The scale of what is happening cannot be understated. Massive amounts of money have been printed, then burned immediately. It is as if the FED is trolling us... Or we are being trolled by our own minds. Equities reflect the mental state of investors, big and small alike. The dilemma is causing headaches, it has reached a paradoxical state. No human, not even ChatGPT can solve paradoxes, it is not suicidal. This chart is one attempt into clearing the picture. This exotic chart attempts to calculate the price of equities based on the current state of yield curve inversion. It can help calculate the "absolute" strength of indices like IXIC. Similar calculations can be made using the DXY*IXIC/100 formula. It has reached with incredible accuracy the 1.272 retracement, as shown in the main chart. In short, the higher this chart goes, the better the QE Machine performs. The Yield Curve is now showing a clear warning signal. I have been watching closely the price action, now it is more certain than ever that the yield curve may correct sooner than later. A correction of the yield curve has usually led to severe recessions. After all of this analysis, still no conclusion about equities... Occam's razor could be the solution. Clear and simple analysis gives the best results. --- 1. Simple Price Patterns. Sometimes, the simplest answer is the correct one. --- 2. Classic Dow Theory. It dictates that the weakness of the few may lead to the weakness of the many. DJI is the first to show signs of weakness. Will wider indices like SPX weaken? With bear flags clearly appearing, and an apparent HnS pattern forming, things couldn't get worse. The post-GFC bull market may fail any time now. --- 3. The Basis of Stock Market There is this rule that everybody knows and most forget. Price is split between two areas, above and below average. When price is above average, sellers dictate price. Similarly, when price is below average, buyers dictate prices. Price is higher than average for a long-long time. It is one of the longest-standing equity bull markets. For many years, equity prices are facing increasing selling pressure and decreasing buying pressure. Why? Because investors progressively cash-out of equities. There may be too little interest for serious investors to buy into equities. Equities are too expensive and too risky for them to be a viable investment decision. You can find more about investment risk in @SPY_Master 's idea linked below. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. There is much information I may have left out of this idea. I don't want to be repetitive and I try to keep ideas short and clear. You can find more info about the QE Machine in the following idea.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by akikostas
S&P Pull BackNew update. It seems like markets have found themselves face to face with reality. The bear market rally seems to have run out of steam due to the amounting economic and inflationary data. Simply put, I do not think markets can rally from here, based on: RSI overbought on 1W MACD Crossed on 1W Food prices are at 18 moth highs according to UN. Fuel prices are back near record highs Rent prices are back at record highs according to Redfin and Zillow Home Prices are heading higher according to Case Shiller Index Vehicle prices remain high, making a slight gain last month according to FRED and MUI Housing affordability is at a multi-decade low (1980s) With this data in mind, I can't imagine how the Fed will be able to hide this new inflation in future CPI/PPI reports. It's impossible. Just because their official report says inflation is falling, it doesn't make it a reality. The debt to savings ratio in America is about the worst on record, which means people are paying more for the same items they used to buy because prices are rising and there is nothing they can do to stop it. Some people believe unicorns are real, but that doesn't mean they're real. Markets have risen for the last 4 consecutive months without pause, and continually since Oct 2022 lows based on the idea that inflation is "easing" and that the Fed will reverse course. Higher interest rates are good, because it promotes savings with higher yields. It also promotes paying off debt and less leveraging by Americans. The problem with 0% interest is that it creates artificial spending growth, which in fact is nothing more than a bubble. We saw the mad rush to buy cars and homes in 2021 with people overpaying on over priced homes and cars. Now? They're starting to sweat, especially those who bought vehicles, because 2 years later, they still owe more than MSRP and dealers won't buy them for near MSRP. Home buying sentiment is the worst in 23 years according to CNBC (keep in mind, that's worse than 2008-09). Keep watching.. let's see how this farce of a market plays out. Who knows, they may continue to fudge numbers and markets may reverse and rally again, but everyone knows that prices everywhere are higher, so it matters not if the "official" numbers are low. You feel it at the pump, grocery store, and everywhere else. There was no easing. #SPX CBOE:SPX
SP:SPXShort
by WorldEconomics
3
Inflation Wins, We LoseThere are two kinds of inflation, the normal one and the dangerous one. Printing money creates inflation. The kind however which is not dangerous to the foundation of the economy. With money printing, currency loses value and prices react accordingly. Nobody gets wealthy from money printing, and in a sense, "nobody" gets poor. By nobody I mean the economy as an average doesn't really get hurt. Inflation however widens the gap between poor and wealthy. Poor get poorer while rich get richer... Inflation analysis can be very simple. If one believes in simple support/resistance levels from consolidation patterns, then the following picture can be drawn for the standard inflation chart. For further validation, we can try analyzing commodities like oil. In the main chart, crude oil value is divided by the "total value of money in circulation". The value of money is the yield percentage. A massive consolidation pattern formed in 1986-2002, on which we are now supported. I believe that price cannot drop much lower than the point we are in. Dips can be expected, but in macro scale the chart is bullish. From the chart above, we conclude that oil prices (inflation) will grow compared to yields themselves. Each increase in yields (inflation fighting) will lead to higher oil prices (higher inflation). Charts like these prove the Catch-22 phenomenon we are in. This is the bad kind of inflation. This inflation is un-fixable. There is a plethora of charts that prove what I say, that inflation is unfixable. One of these charts is GOLD*PPIACO. @SPY_Master used the GOLD*DBC chart as a measure of inflation. Gold*PPIACO can be considered as another very-long-term inflation measure. Commodity production cost is bull-flagging against money supply itself. So okay, we all expect more inflation. And surely, equity prices have priced this in, right? Wrong. Equities have priced-in that the FED is controlling inflation. Investors expect both inflation and the FED to calm soon. So, equities have priced-in something that will never come. An investment can suffer when the investor judges the situation wrong. An investor who has understood the situation, "cannot" go bankrupt. Equity prices show that markets ignore the FED. In the chart above, DJI is divided by the yield curve as an attempt to measure the ability of equities to grow in a progressively tighter economy (falling yield-curve, negative yield curve). Even with all that money destruction and yield increases, equities are making all-time highs. The markets are very stubborn. The yield curve may describe the "ease" the market shows for equities. In normal times, the yield curve is positive, long-term yields are higher than short-term ones. This encourages short-term borrowing and stimulates the economy. As the yield curve steadily lowers, short-term money borrowing is less and less interesting for investors. (In the Spaaace!!! idea linked below, you can find more information about the DJI/yield-curve chart) High inflation and stubborn markets by themselves don't render equities as worthless. After all, equities survived in the stagflation period of 1970s. While the stagflation outcome can play out, there are things that may happen before it. There are some charts which are very concerning for equities... We tend to talk about the crypto bubble, and ignore the equity one. Equities have been consistently growing for the last 15 years. But thanks to what? Are companies in a "better shape" than they were in 2010? Sure technology has evolved, but from dependable devices we are now filled with unstable gadgets. Consumer devices as well as corporate ones, are more vulnerable than ever before. Security gaps are now appearing from big-tech companies to banks. Sure, issues like these were commonly occurring throughout history. But let's consider, is the immense equity growth representative of the dependence we can have on companies and their products/services? Are equities growing because of actual innovation, or from the easy way of derivatives? This chart shows the diminishing nature of derivatives. They are exponentially losing value, but their effect is much bigger than their cost. A purchase of cheap derivatives can bubble-up anything you can hope for. Where does this chart lead us? This chart attempts to calculate the effect of derivatives in QQQ price. Before 2020, QQQ consisted of a "stable" amount of derivatives. Price moved in the channel. In 2021 a bull-flag formed and launched the chart in incredible new highs (where we are now). It is one way to visualize the immense effect of derivatives, especially in big-tech stocks. (More about this chart in the "who would you trust with your money" idea linked below) Even if Bitcoin is "overpriced", it will be the winner if this golden bull-flag breaks out. Bitcoin seems to be beating many investments. Even if it may not be considered a commodity, it certainly behaves like one. Even if equities grow, each upwards move for equities, will lead to much higher prices for Bitcoin. Just like Bitcoin is bull-flagging against the most powerful of equity bubbles (QQQ Derivatives), commodities are bull-flagging against the most stable of equities (DJI) Not all equities are grim though... We may be witnessing a massive wealth transfer away from US corporations. In this idea, I attempt to analyze the massive shift of balance that we may be witnessing. While much harm has come to Europe from the war, almost everything is priced in. If the chart is correct, it means that every upwards move for US equities will push Germany further upwards. Germany has been enjoying a massive influx of money from the entire EU. After swallowing the entire European market, it is now forming a bull-flag against Europe and other countries. Germany as well as emerging markets prove a significant challenge for the US. These are bad news indeed for US equities... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
NYMEX:CL2!
by akikostas
6
You against inflationMoney printing has been a double-edged sword. One one hand ample liquidity helped the exponential productivity of the economy, on the other hand inflation hit hard. In periods of stagflation like the 1970s, immense inflation created an impenetrable ceiling for equities. In periods of extreme deflation (2010s), equities bubbled. It is interesting that in this period, inflation figures were are all-time lows, with immense money printing. With this chart we attempt to measure when and how much equities managed to overperform the weight of inflation. There are two methods of calculating inflation, one is total money printed, and the other is the "cumulative inflation". If we analyze SPX compared to money printed, this would be the outcome: This is not very helpful, since SPX is too closely related to total money printed. To measure "cumulative inflation" I attempted modifying this chart by @SPY_Master DBC*GOLD is a good estimate of inflation. Since we don't have enough historical data for the DBC index, we analyze one of it's cousins, the PPIACO index. DBC is an energy-focused mutual fund, while PPIACO measures the production cost. We assume that PPIACO*GOLD is a suitable replacement for DBC*GOLD. We end up with the cover chart, which I will briefly analyze, since it speaks on it's own. For almost 10 years we were attempting at penetrating the ribbon, to no avail... These fib-retracements are very beautiful... SPX: NDQ: They all prove that there is massive weight on top of us. After almost 10 years of trying to get back inside the high-energy-level above, can we do it now? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
4
50 EMA @ 33990If you read this you will learn more about the rocket booster strategy. Am from eating my small healthy sandwich breakfast. As am thinking about what to write to you. -- I check my trading system-inside this system the DJI TVC:DJI Has signaled a buy. -- Here is what the Rocket Booster System Looks Like: Price has to be above the 50 EMA Price has to be above the 200 EMA Price has to be in an up-trend -- Trading can be an emotional game, but if you remember this strategy and stick to it you will defend yourself. -- If you would like to learn more please rocket boost this content. -- Disclaimer:Do not buy or sell anything i reccomend to you.Do your own research before you trade.The purpose of this content is for education.
TVC:DJILong
by lubosi
DXY May Signal Next Crash Across Stock and Crypto MarketsWithin the four panels above are comparisons of major US market and the international Bitcoin indices with the US Dollar Index, $TVC:DXY. From top left to right: TVC:DJI SP:SPX NASDAQ:NDX BNC:BLX As we can plainly see, each one acts a a near mirror image going back to 2017. When looking at correlation via an indicator, like Correlation Coefficient, we would see regular swings from negative to positive on various timeframes and settings. Yet, when viewing both indices over the years as shown above, there are several observations: it becomes clear that there is a macro negative correlation between the dollar index and these major stock and crypto indices. There is also a consistent tendency for both to correct and eventually meet near the middle and/or see a crossover to the other side. Strong opposing reactions occur between these valleys of one meet or cross with peaks of the other (meeting in the middle or crossing), and when peaks of one drift furthest apart from valleys of the other. DXY often reaches local highs or lows prior to these market indices reaching lows or highs, or vice versa. One can act to forward indicate the direction of the other. It's certainly possible that any of these markets could instead signal DXY's next move, or even move together at the same time with it (both of which have occurred before and even in cases on the chart above). However, there has been a pattern since 2017 of DXY making local highs or lows prior to the indices above making their local lows or highs, at least when leading up to major spikes in DXY and crashes in markets, bringing them nearer to the middle. Should DXY move up and back above 105-106 and then 112, and continue, it may signal the end of these recoveries we've been seeing over the last year, and could point to crashes across markets. My present theory is that we may see something like double-tops with slightly higher or slightly lower highs, across many of these markets, and as DXY ranges between 101-106. This, leading to a breakout of that range and a move back above 112. Should DXY turn down hard instead, we may see extended recoveries and new ATHs until it bounces again off monthly support and heads back up. Many of the stock indices shown above are already near double-tops with potentially a bit more room to run up. Bitcoin hasn't yet caught up and has a lower weekly RSI, so it may be the last one to make a strong recovery before we see a downturn. *** related ideas linked in the related ideas section **** Thank you for reading! -dudebruh :)
TVC:DJI
by dudebruhwhoa
Arbitrary LinesBabylon, the city where everybody spoke different languages. In the end, Babylon met grave consequences. (Macro perspective of the main chart) Citizens of Babylon, in our case traders, can barely communicate. They all speak in different timeframes, and with contradicting interests. Which translator in their right mind can untangle spaghetti? Many different lengths of regression. How can any translator give a geographic position of anything? Even if I try to make an argument... ... I am plotting arbitrary lines. (bearish trendlines) A line is nothing but weak. It can easily "disprove" what I have "proved". (bullish trendline) If we are to leap ahead, we must throw away all of which we are sure to be correct. Surely there is something we can agree upon, right? For I was conscious that I knew practically nothing... -Plato It seems that everything is based around the chaos theory. The flight of a butterfly can affect tornadoes. Traders (like me) fall in the trap of making chaos into facts and arguments, and conclude into definitive answers. Clean and ordered answers taken out of chaos. Ordo Ab Chao Is anything/everything that we do a desperate attempt to revert entropy/chaos? Like an insane ritual? Maybe we know nothing. Maybe making arguments and conclusions is meaningless. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
NASDAQ:NDX
by akikostas
3
US30 forecast, shortThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Dow Jones or the Dow for short tracks the performance of 30 of the biggest companies in the US including Boeing, Intel, and Dow. It’s often used as a barometer for the overall performance of the country’s equity markets. Historically it’s one of oldest and most followed indices. The chart is a useful measure of US economic health. Follow the Dow Jones live with the real-time chart and view the latest Dow forecasts, news and analysis. Key pivot points and support and resistance will help you trade the Dow Jones today and into the future
BLACKBULL:US30Short
by GrandeMaster
DOW JONES: The top is close. Pullback expected.Dow Jones is unfolding the second rally sequence of the 1 year Channel Up and has reached today the 0.786 Fibonacci level of July's High. The 1D technical outlook is about to turn overbought (RSI = 68.650, MACD = 236.580, ADX = 32.415) and as the rally approaches the R1 level (35,100) as well as being almost on the +9.05% range from the bottom, we are looking towards a late April peak formation and pullback. The pullback is expected to be at a -2.75% minimum, like June 23rd that reached the 1D MA50. Sell, TP = 34,300. See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by InvestingScope
This Statement is FalseCharting is amazing. The excitement it gives me is far greater than the satisfaction a good trade could ever give me. It is easy for me to state this fact since I don't trade. I consider the stock market as a super-long-term strategy. A strategy that lasts for generations, not a career. After all, the most wealthy have ancestors heavily invested in the stock market decades ago. Charting can be prone to showing ghosts when there are none. We tend to believe a crisis is coming, when in fact it is ending. No wonder the yield curve is super important. With specific adjustments to rates, the FED manages to accelerate and decelerate the economy. I recently found out about the following chart: SPX-equal-weight vs SPX-market-cap This chart represents "democracy" in wealth distribution between the 500 members of SPX. The higher the chart, the more spread out the wealth distribution. Now we are apparently reaching what appears to be a significant floor. There is a lot of ground to cover regarding this chart above. First things first, there appears to be a significant correlation between yield rates and wealth spread. There also appears to be a lag on this chart. First there is a wealth distribution change, and then the yield rates change appropriately. The charts above state that high yield rates go hand-in-hand with higher wealth distribution. At first this may seem counter-intuitive. How on earth do high yield rates help the markets? We all know that equities suffered last year because of the rapid rate hike. It is simple, really. High yield rates encourage banks to lend money. High yield rates help spread money from the few to the many. As a historical analogue we could compare the SPX/DJI chart. This chart is false. The many vs the few is not what you think it is. There is one caveat with this chart. SPX is a market-cap index while DJI is a stock-price index. With that in mind we should consider the following: -- The SPX/DJI chart is not 100% comparable. It may even represent the "average cost" of a stock. Since Market-Cap (money) is divided by Stock-Price (stock). -- In hindsight, we realize that the Great Depression happened in a period of ample and cheaper stocks, with market cap diminishing. It might have been the absolute definition of a bubble. Buyers bought progressively more and more stocks that came into existence out of thin air. Does this story ring any bells? Has anyone heard about derivatives? The RSP/IVV chart we talked before had an excellent behavior and correlation to yield rates. All was well, until now. Now we have an issue... The RSP/IVV ratio, which appears to lead yield rates is rapidly dropping. With that in mind, the FED should have lower yield rates into what the market prices them. Right now, the FED attempts killing the market. A conclusion is hard to make. Both the SPX/DJI charts, and the RSP/IVV-yield-rate chart suggest that yield rates are significantly overextended upwards. Have we leaped too fast too quick? Has the FED overreacted? Does wealth distribution suggest lower rates in the months to come? Has the market settled with a low-rate hyper-inflationary future? Will the RSP/IVV floor give-in? Is a roaring '20s-like bubble brewing? Just like our "friend" Musk called... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
1
The Emperor's New ClothesYou don't need to believe in fairytales to realize that there are kings, queens and peasants. As if not a single day has passed since the Medieval times. Poor get poorer, and rich get richer. As the folklore said, the emperor decided that he needs new clothes. And so he demanded from the entire kingdom that he finds the finest. Two swindlers arrive at the capital city of an emperor who spends lavishly on clothing at the expense of state matters. Posing as weavers, they offer to supply him with magnificent clothes that are invisible to those who are stupid or incompetent. Source: Wikipedia And here we are. Looking at the magnificent clothes of the naked emperor. The emperor however is still an emperor, no matter what he wears. And he gets to enjoy the fruit of his peasants' labor. Post 2020 profits for the naked few. Until today, we are too smart not to see the clothes of the emperor. No sane person can possibly call themselves incompetent. The ghost of the emperor lives on... ...until one child realizes, that there are no clothes in the first place. We have reached the very last days of the emperor's dignity. Trend change begins when only one changes direction. Others soon follow. Volatility increases after a tiny "butterfly-event" causes one member to destabilize. SPX Stability: Then volatility swallows everyone. Parasites have riddled the economy. There is only a limited amount of time for parasites to feast. The time will come, when there will be no food left. It is at that time when the real "fun" begins... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
NASDAQ:NDX
by akikostas
2
DOW JONES Consolidation leading to a Christmas rally?Dow Jones / US30 spent all week above the 1day MA50, in fact Friday's rebound took place exactly on it (Support A at 33850). This is potentially an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and with the 1day RSI at 60.00 and over its MA, it draws comparisons with the June 15th pattern, which peaked at +6.08%. That pattern has same measurements as the current Inverse Head and Shoulders and formed the Right Shoulder in 3 weeks, supported by the 1day MA50. After that another +6.15% leg brought the price to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. Similarly, the current Inverse Head and Shoulders may target the 1.786 Fibonacci, which in this case will be a little under the 35700 Resistance B high. Buy and target 35500 (a little under Fibonacci 1.786). Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TheCryptagon