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SPX | Don't fall for the trap...SPX is plowing through higher highs. It is a runaway train. Have you entered that train yet? You better enter it because SPX will soar! But runaway trains have the fate of collapsing in on themselves. Their weight is too much for the foundation to sustain. Not all is SPX. VIX is also attempting to measure the risk involved in SPX. And VIX is as bullish as it gets. But not all is VIX. It is important to analyze the volatility of volatility. We are really entering inception levels here. Volatility is too low and too stable . It is as if it is pressured to make all-time-lows. With such a low VVIX reading, we can conclude that VIX is having no second thought on dropping even further. Curiously, the VVIX/VIX ratio is a neat SPX tracker. I have posted about it ages ago. So what can we conclude about volatility? Historically, similar volatility traps have lead to severe crashes in the stock market. Will this time be any different? So what is in for the future? Perhaps an all-time high for SPX will come first. It is not that far... Then, perhaps some SPX divergence against VVIX/VIX. SPX to move higher with VVIX/VIX moving lower. And then darkness. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
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by akikostas
11
Make Exxon Great Again. As Here's A Hundred Fold OpportunityElectric vehicles are growing so fast that Exxon Mobil is preparing for a future when "customers don’t need that gasoline". Exxon Mobil Corp., which operates one of the world’s biggest oil-refining networks, is trying to be more responsive to changing consumer demands as the energy transition gathers pace. The changes it’s considering include potentially replacing some gasoline production with chemicals. The oil giant has long pursued a strategy of upgrading refineries to expand production and make higher-value products from crude oil such as lubricants and plastic feedstock. But it now sees those projects potentially helping the company to move away from traditional fuels, demand for which is likely to wane in coming decades. The strategy, discussed in August 2023 by executives at a presentation to investors and media, shows how even Exxon, one of the leading proponents of fossil fuels, is being forced to reckon with a future in which electric vehicles significantly eat into gasoline consumption. Exxon has already reduced production of fuel oil and high-sulfur petroleum at refineries in Singapore and the UK. Over time, it’s open to cutting output of gasoline, the focus of the company’s refining business since Henry Ford introduced the Model T nearly 100 years ago. The goal is to produce more chemicals, found in everything from paint to plastic, for which there are few low-carbon alternatives. "We’re planning on modifying some of that yield from gasoline to distillate and chemicals feed," Jack Williams, Exxon senior vice president, said earlier this year at the company’s office in Spring, Texas. "We’ve got projects that we know we would do to take those steps." Exxon gets most of its earnings from oil and natural gas production but refining has always been in its corporate DNA, right back to its original incarnation as part of John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil, which was established in the 19th century. Refining allows Exxon to earn money right along the fossil fuel supply chain, from the wellhead to the gas tank. But with traditional fuels such as gasoline under threat from EVs, refineries worldwide are being forced to adapt quickly. Some European plants shut down during the pandemic, while others in the US switched to biodiesel. Exxon wants to take a more nuanced approach by upgrading facilities to switch in and out of products depending on demand. To give an example, an Exxon refinery in Singapore used to produce fuel oil that sold for $10 per barrel below the price of Brent crude, but after a recent upgrade, the facility produces lubricant base stocks that sell for $50 above Brent. Exxon has upgraded and added to its refineries at Fawley in the UK and Beaumont in Texas to produce more diesel, which is used for heavy-duty transportation and is less vulnerable to competition from electric vehicles. "You just have more variables now due to the energy transition," said Jay Saunders, a natural resources fund managers at Jennison Associates, which has $186 billion under management. "Having a high-quality refining asset with flexibility will be very important." Exxon’s refining and chemicals footprint is at least double that of its Big Oil competitors, potentially making it more vulnerable to a speedy energy transition, and especially the growth of electric vehicles. But executives believe the potential for reconfigurations is far greater than that of its peers, providing an opportunity to profit in a low-carbon future. "This really allows us to pivot as demand evolves," said Karen McKee, President of Exxon’s Product Solutions division. Biodiesel is particularly attractive to Exxon because reconfiguring its existing refineries costs about half as much as building a new plant, said Neil Hansen, senior vice president of product solutions. Demand for biodiesel, which is manufactured from vegetable oil or recycled restaurant grease, is expected to quadruple to 9 million barrels a day by 2050, he said. Exxon is halfway through an eight-year plan to overhaul its fuels and chemicals division, which also involves cutting costs, improving operational performance and selling assets that don’t make the grade. Exxon will operate just 13 refineries worldwide by the end of 2023 after selling five in the past four years to focus on the biggest and lowest-cost operations. Chemicals will be key to the strategy’s success. Exxon sees demand growth for its high-performance chemicals at about 7% a year, contrasting sharply with gasoline, which is expected to peak globally by the end of the decade. To keep up with this demand, Exxon plans to build a new dedicated chemical plant every four to seven years, Williams said. The company’s refineries provide an additional means to make chemicals, but they will focus on responding to consumer preference rather than making a big bet on any particular product, Williams said. "We’re not going to do it while the demand is still there," he said. "We’re going to it at a time when the demand trends are clear and customers don’t need that gasoline." At the same time technical picture in Exxon stocks (dividends adjusted) illustrates Exxon got a huge support of 30-years SMA, and right here is a key Multiyear breakout. Further a hundred fold growth is right there to come. Make Exxon Great Again. #MEGA
NYSE:XOMLong
by Pandorra
$DJI @ a support level & oversoldStated a while ago, not sure if we posted here but did elsewhere (see profile), that we had short term Treasury exposure @ 50% but it's 75% atm. (it's a placeholder until trend changes) Should've been shorting the entire time down. TVC:DJI @ support but this area has not been a strong level. However, we are severely oversold so that bounce can be close & it can happen here. Sticking with the idea that large bounces should be sold of shorted until the technical data changes. #stocks AMEX:DIA
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
DOW JONES Approaching a critical Support cluster.The Dow Jones index (DJI) has broken below the long-term Higher Lows trend-line and has transitioned into a Channel Down. The current Lower Lows leg is approaching not just the bottom of the Channel Down but more importantly the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). The latter in particular provided a Double Support Bounce on (June 01 and May 25) and hasn't been broken since March 29. We are waiting for the first 2-day green 1D candle streak in order to buy and target (at least) the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Projected contact at 34450 (target). The 1D RSI has hit the 34.80 Support, which provided the bounce on the August 24 bottom. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingShot
5
This is the Bottom $btc Bitcoin Fibonacci levels from historic lows, to significant tops. Note that at the .786 level, and anything lower, (note as well the potential 30% drawdown lasting up to 2 months that can occur at significant cycle bottoms) has historically been the bottom for the cycle. We might front run the bottom though and fill up before we reach say $10,000 or lower. The 2018 bear market bottom showed no journey into sub .786 levels, which again would almost certainly be the most optimal long entry point (low end of .786 and anything sub.) Further, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISK to take in end of the year 2022, would be an under exposure to the brave new asset, or stocks in general as the fed is forced into dovish expression. the fed has a money printer
BNC:BLXLong
by xueq
$DJI broke Head & shoulder & long term trend yesterdayDJ:DJI broke the head & Shoulder pattern on daily charts. However, the volume was not heavy. AMEX:DIA also broke the up trend from the bottom in 2022 SERIOUS DAMAGE has been done the last 30 days. We can get a bounce here BUT being Friday, not sure. --- The previous MONTHLY BEARISH moving avg crossover on the DJ:DJI happened in June 2008. We all know that year. The RSI in 2008 showed clear Negative Divergence & it formed a Doji (cross) at the top. 2008 bear > 14k - 7 = 50% CV bear market > 30k - 18K = 40% 2022 bear market > 36 - 28 = 22% --- Using AMEX:DIA as it resembles DJ:DJI pretty decently IF 2021 was the top, looking more & more likely as: RSI did not move strongly 2021 showing Negative Divergence AND the recent rally was SUPER WEAK! (wanted to see a stronger relative strength) But rates can now be dropped & they can come and save the day. Very likely scenario in 2024.
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
DOW JONES crossed below the 6 month Channel Up.Dow Jones is waving a strong bearish break out signal as it crossed under the bottom of the 6 month Channel Up today and most likely will close that way. This means that the trend is shifting to bearish on the medium term as a new Channel Down could emerge. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. Targets: 1. 33840 (MA200 (1d)) and if it breaks after a small bounce target extension 33200 (bottom of Channel Down). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is trading in a Channel Down of its own. Last time it did was from December 2022 to March 2023 and as you see that price action is similar to today's. It bottomed some way under the MA200 (1d), which is consistent with our target extension. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by TradingBrokersView
DOW JONES Buy signal to 35300 short termDow Jones crossed again over the former Falling Resistance after making a bounce near the 1day MA100. This is the third time this level holds in almost one month. This keeps the long term Channel Up pattern intact. The 1day RSI is on the exact level of the June 2nd break out, showing a high level of symmetry of waves inside the Channel Up structure. Buy and target the 0.786 Fibonacci level (35300). Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TheCryptagon
11
✅ Daily Market Analysis - WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 20, 2023Key events: UK - CPI (YoY) (Aug) USA - Crude Oil Inventories USA - FOMC Economic Projections USA - FOMC Statement USA - Fed Interest Rate Decision USA - FOMC Press Conference Mixed Market Signals: US Stock Futures Stabilize, Forex Rates Range-Bound, Gold Edges Up Slightly We observe a blend of mixed signals across various asset classes. Here's a brief overview: US Stock Futures Stabilize: US stock futures have shown signs of stabilization after recent volatility. While they experienced fluctuations, they are currently exhibiting a more balanced and steady pattern. This suggests that investors may be finding some stability in the equity markets. Forex Rates Range-Bound: Foreign exchange (forex) rates are trading within relatively narrow ranges. Major currency pairs are not displaying significant movements, indicating a state of consolidation and a lack of clear directional bias. Market participants may be awaiting key economic events and data releases for potential catalysts. Gold Edges Up Slightly: Gold prices have seen a slight uptick. The precious metal has inched higher, albeit modestly, reflecting a degree of investor interest in safe-haven assets. Gold often attracts buyers during uncertain or turbulent market conditions as a hedge against risk. Let's analyze together each point of this article During the evening trading session on Tuesday, US stock futures displayed limited movement, mirroring a downward trend in major benchmark indices as bond yields continued to climb in anticipation of the impending interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. Dow Jones Futures, S&P 500 Futures, and Nasdaq 100 Futures all exhibited marginal fluctuations, remaining within a narrow 0.1% trading range. NASDAQ Index daily chart SPX Index daily chart DJI Index daily chart As we draw closer to the upcoming policy announcements from the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) scheduled for later this week, major foreign exchange rates are showing limited trading ranges. This subdued trading environment comes on the heels of a substantial sell-off that occurred at the end of the previous week, triggered by developments in the European Central Bank's (ECB) latest policy meeting. Notably, the euro demonstrated signs of a modest recovery yesterday, with its value surging to an intraday high of 1.07199. This rebound allowed the euro to surpass the low it had touched at the conclusion of the previous week, which had been at 1.0632. EUR/USD daily chart The resurgence of the euro yesterday can largely be attributed to a noteworthy report from Reuters, which cited sources within the European Central Bank (ECB). The report, titled "ECB to Address Excess Liquidity in Next Phase of Inflation Combat," played a pivotal role in boosting the euro's performance. The minutes released from the September meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) revealed the possibility of further tightening measures if inflation continues to persist. Additionally, market attention was focused on China's central bank (PBOC), which was set to announce its interest rate decision later in the day, potentially impacting the Australian Dollar. In another part of the forex market, the USD/JPY pair saw a notable surge, reaching a peak of 147.99. This marked fresh highs for the year 2023 and was supported by the ongoing rise in US bond yields. USD/JPY daily chart In the previous trading session, the US Dollar closed at 147.60 Japanese Yen, while Japan's 10-year JGB yield increased by 1 basis point, reaching 0.71%. Against the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), the Greenback experienced a decline, slipping from 1.3485 to 1.3445. This marked the Canadian Dollar's strongest performance in six weeks, buoyed by Canada's annual inflation data hitting 4%, surpassing the anticipated 3.8%. The Dollar Index (USD/DXY), which measures the US Dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, saw a slight drop from 105.35 to 105.15. Market expectations are leaning towards the Federal Reserve maintaining its current interest rates at the upcoming meeting. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart In additional economic developments from the previous day, US Housing Starts for August disappointed by coming in at 1.28 million units, falling short of expectations. This figure represented the lowest reading since June 2020. Conversely, Building Permits for August showed strength, reaching 1.54 million units, surpassing the previous figure of 1.44 million, and beating estimates set at 1.44 million. Regarding the precious metals market, the most-active futures contract for gold on New York's Comex, specifically the December contract, settled at $1953.70 per ounce. However, it recorded a modest gain of just 30 cents for the day. XAU/USD daily chart The 10-year Treasury yield is currently hovering around the highs observed in August, suggesting the possibility of establishing new cycle highs. Gold traders are closely monitoring these developments, with their initial focus centered on the Federal Reserve (Fed) and subsequently shifting to the policy decisions of the Bank of England (BOE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Should optimism rise that most advanced economies have completed their interest rate hikes, it could provide a favorable backdrop for gold. However, achieving such optimism may prove challenging, given that the Fed and BOE might not indicate the conclusion of their rate hikes just yet. If concerns about economic slowdowns, often referred to as "hard landings," start to trouble Wall Street, gold could attract safe-haven flows despite some underlying dollar strength. Global markets are adapting to a new perspective on rate hikes, triggered by the European Central Bank's decision to raise rates to a record high of 4% on Thursday, even as it suggested that this hike might be its final move in the near term. While the Fed's policymakers are not expected to raise rates at their upcoming meeting on September 20, this follows a series of 11 hikes that added 5.25 percentage points to the base rate. In February 2022, the rate stood at just 0.25%. Chairman Jerome Powell's statements during his news conference on Wednesday will be closely analyzed for insights into the Fed's outlook for the remainder of the year, especially with two more policy meetings scheduled for November and December. Nonetheless, with a Fed rate hike seemingly on hold for now, some dollar investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach, while others are capitalizing on the greenback's recent eight-week rally. In August, US consumer prices experienced their second consecutive monthly increase, resulting in a year-on-year growth rate of 3.7%, up from 3.2% in July. This rise was primarily attributed to surging gasoline prices, accounting for over half of the overall increase. Such a phenomenon could exert renewed pressure on those at the Fed who are committed to combating inflation. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a widely followed economic indicator in the United States that measures changes in the average price level of a basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households. It is a key gauge of inflation and provides valuable insights into the cost of living for the average American consumer. The CPI is released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on a monthly basis and is considered one of the most important economic indicators. The CPI calculation involves tracking the prices of thousands of items across various categories, such as food, clothing, housing, transportation, and medical care. These items are grouped into different expenditure categories, and their prices are weighted based on the average spending habits of urban consumers. The index is then calculated by comparing the current prices of these items to a base period's prices, usually set at 100. Here are some key points about the US Consumer Price Index (CPI): Inflation Measurement: The CPI is primarily used to measure inflation, which is the rate at which the general price level of goods and services rises over time. It helps policymakers, economists, and investors assess the impact of price changes on purchasing power and economic stability. Components: The CPI is divided into two main components: the "core" CPI and the "headline" CPI. The core CPI excludes volatile food and energy prices, as they can experience significant short-term fluctuations. The headline CPI includes all items, providing a broader view of price movements. Base Year: The CPI is reported relative to a base year, which is assigned a value of 100. Changes in the index represent the percentage change in prices relative to the base year. For example, if the CPI is 110, it indicates a 10% increase in prices since the base year. Monthly Release: The BLS releases the CPI data on a monthly basis, typically around the middle of each month, with a one-month lag. This allows for the timely assessment of inflation trends. Uses: The CPI is used for various purposes, including adjusting Social Security benefits, indexing pensions, calculating cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs), and helping businesses adjust prices and wages to account for inflation. Economic Indicator: Economists and policymakers closely monitor CPI data to make informed decisions about monetary policy, interest rates, and economic stimulus. High inflation can erode purchasing power and lead to changes in central bank policy. Basket of Goods: The CPI's "basket of goods" is periodically updated to reflect changes in consumer preferences and spending habits. This ensures that the index remains relevant and accurate. Core and Headline CPI: The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is often used to assess underlying inflation trends. The headline CPI, including all items, provides a more comprehensive view of overall inflation. In summary, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a crucial economic indicator that tracks changes in the average price level of goods and services purchased by consumers. It helps gauge inflation, informs policy decisions, and has significant implications for individuals, businesses, and the broader economy. ---- The central bank maintains its targeted inflation rate at a maximum of 2% per year and has committed to achieving this objective through additional interest rate hikes if they are deemed necessary. The key areas of focus will be the Federal Reserve's (Fed) economic projections and the Fed Funds rate forecasts. Of particular significance will be the Fed's "dot plot," which discloses the individual perspectives of Fed members regarding the future path of interest rates. Until this information is released, we can expect foreign exchange markets to remain within their recent trading ranges, albeit amid somewhat turbulent conditions.
by FOREXN1
10
DOW JONES; Main ASCENDING-WEDGE, Crucial Completion Incoming!Hello, Welcome to this analysis about the DJI - Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. An important index in the stock market and as we have seen an absolute recovery since the heavy corona breakdowns that hit global financial markets at the beginning of the corona pandemic last year there developed unhealthy movements within the market as the stock market moved to the upside with a vast majority of indices while the real economy still not recovered that fastly and in this steep manner as it was the case in the stock market, in fact in many places the real economy is still heavily damaged and besides that there is a accelerating inflation going on that can be a source of a potential bear market to set up, especially when looking at this whole determination the possibilities for a pullback scenario are quite high in this measurement. Therefore, when looking at my chart we can watch there how the DOW is building this main ascending-wedge-formation which is certainly a bearish reversal formation and as the DOW already completed the whole wave-count within this formation and after that completion pulled off the upper-boundary there is not much remaining for a completion of this formation which will happen when the DOW bounces below the lower-boundary and from there it will be the origin for a continuation to the downside with the DOW pointing the 32500 USD level marked in my chart in blue, when this level has been reached the situation needs to be elevated again and the DOW needs to show if it manages to reverse from there on or just sets up for a bearish continuation to the downside. In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, it will be great when you support it with a like, follow and comment for more upcoming market analysis, all the best! "There are many roads to prosperity, but one must be taken." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
TVC:DJI
by VincePrince
14
$DJI $NDX $SPX show warning signs UpdateGood Morning! We turned neutral, from Bullish Sept 2022, late July - early August. Since then #stocks have traded slowly lower. For the moment all major indices trade ABOVE longer term moving avgs. This tends to be a good sign. However, they're all trading sub short term moving avgs. Furthermore: Indicators like RSI & Money Flow have eroded recently They've also formed ominous patterns, as follows: DJ:DJI formed Rising Wedge. NASDAQ:NDX $ CBOE:SPX Head & Shoulders. Most likely these patterns will resolve soon. Either confirm or break. Have an awesome trading week!
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Dow Jones (DJI) -> Back To The TrendlineMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️ I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise. This is how you build real long term wealth! In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Dow Jones. At the moment the Dow Jones is retesting its previous all time high which is roughly at the $35.500 level and the index is already starting another bearish rejection. If we see a retracement back to the lower bullish trendline of the rising channel which is sitting at the $30.000 level, this will be a textbook bullish continuation setup on the Dow Jones. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy. Keep the long term vision🫡
TVC:DJIShort
by basictradingtv
21
DOW JONES: Rejected on the 2week Resistance. Any change to recovDow Jones is having a sharp opening pullback on the 1H timeframe but remains on a bullish 4H technical outlook (RSI = 58.586, MACD = 126.970, ADX = 41.565), as the HL trendline of the Bullish Megaphone is holding. The reason for the pullback is the rejection on the R1 Zone (35,100 - 35,030). A 4H MACD Bearish Cross will most likely take the price to the HL trendline and the 4H MA50 (TP = 34730) in order to test the buying accumulation at the bottom of the Megaphone. A buy signal consists over the R1 Zone, whose target will be the Megaphone's HH trendline (TP = 35,400). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by InvestingScope
2
US stocks are back leadingWorld markets bottomed on Spetember 2022 and during the recovery, European stocks AMEX:FEZ outperformed US stocks TVC:DJI for 9 months Nos, for the last 3 months, US stocks are back in the leadership as the DJI/FEZ ratio broke its downtrend back in April; just weeks before the AMEX:FEZ broke its trendline That is why relative strength is so important, sometimes gives leading signals And for the last 3 months, energy AMEX:XLE has been the leading sector, with coal being the ledading industry, the thing is that stocks like NYSE:CEIX , NYSE:AMR and NYSE:NRP are already extended Let's wait for a base formation in these leading stocks
AMEX:FEZ
by dpuleo19
DOW JONES Strong bullish leg within a Bullish Megaphone.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us a strong bottom buy signal 8 days ago (see chart below): On today's idea we look at the 1H time-frame, which offers a buy opportunity for quick 1-2 day profit as the index is on a strong bullish leg within a newly formed Bullish Megaphone. Based on the 1H RSI which turned overbought and the 1H MACD which just formed a Bearish Cross, this sequence resembles the August 28 - 31 fractal and we could be on a similar position as on August 30. That was the final consolidation before the bullish leg made its peak on Resistance 1 (35100). Due to the Bullish Megaphone, this time it can go a little higher, so today's buy position targets 35150. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
3