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DOW JONES is starting a 1 year Expansion phase.Dow Jones (DJI) has been on a bullish leg after it broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and turned it into a Support. If we see the bigger picture on this 1W time-frame, we can relate to the 2015 - 2016 fractal, where the current sequence was the final bullish signal before a 1 year expansion phase. Even the 1W RSI patterns are identical and the Arc appears to be on its end. As a result, investors should feel more comfortable buying stocks on a long-term horizon, especially as long as the 1W MA50 holds. After tested as Support on June 27 2016, it wasn't broken until October 22 2018, almost 2.5 years later! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
10
Daily Market Analysis - THURSDAY JULY 20, 2023Greetings, traders! Welcome back to our daily Market Analysis. Today, we have gathered the top news and interesting fundamental analysis for your consideration. Let's dive in and stay informed! The market digests positive earnings reports and economic optimism, driving various assets higher. Among them, the Australian Dollar surges on the back of robust employment data. Investors are analyzing corporate earnings reports and economic indicators to gauge the health of the global economy. The Australian Dollar has seen significant gains following the release of strong employment data, indicating positive economic momentum in the country. Key News: USA - Initial Jobless Claims USA - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) USA - Existing Home Sales (Jun) On Wednesday evening, Dow futures experienced a decline, following the earlier surge in major benchmark averages, reaching new 15-month highs. Traders were closely analyzing the quarterly earnings results of significant companies reported during the session. The market was in the process of digesting this corporate financial data to assess its potential impact on future trends. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index daily chart Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen delivered a positive outlook on the current economic conditions in the United States, which was well-received by the markets. The decreasing inflation has fostered optimism about the US economy's potential for a smooth landing. Yellen's confidence in the labor market cooling down without significant distress has further contributed to this positive sentiment. If economic data continues to support this optimistic view, the market is likely to maintain confidence in a soft economic landing, leading to a gradual decline in the value of the US dollar. The S&P 500 index experienced a 0.7% increase yesterday, approaching levels last seen in early April when inflation concerns were more pronounced. S&P 500 daily chart The recent retail sales data from the US also supports the idea of a soft economic landing, with consumer spending showing growth, albeit at a slower pace. Despite this positive economic outlook, the yen is currently underperforming, as carry trades gain favor in the market. In Japan, the TOPIX index experienced a 1.0% increase, and the 10-year swap rate retreated after reaching highs earlier this month, surpassing 0.70% on Friday for the first time since March. TOPIX daily chart Governor Ueda's comments at the G20 summit in India have played a role in the recent rebound of USD/JPY and the decline in longer-term yields. His statement emphasized that achieving the 2% inflation goal is still a distant prospect, reaffirming the unchanged assumption reiterated in the overall narrative. USD/JPY daily chart The market's response to Governor Ueda's comments has tempered speculation about an immediate yield curve control (YCC) change in the upcoming week. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might still make adjustments to YCC during the July meeting based on updated forecasts. Although yields currently show no upward pressure and are within the 0.50% band limit, the upcoming CPI data on Friday will be pivotal and could reignite speculation depending on the results. On Thursday, the Australian dollar saw a substantial surge after the release of better-than-expected employment data in the country. Australia's net employment rose by 32,600 in June, exceeding market expectations for the second consecutive month of a 15,000 increase. As a result of this positive economic news, the Australian dollar surged more than 0.9% to reach an intraday high of $0.6834. AUD/USD daily chart On the other hand, the British pound suffered notable losses due to disappointing inflation data that fell short of market expectations. As a result, the market's anticipation of further aggressive interest rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE) diminished. However, the pound managed to stage a slight recovery, gaining 0.15% to trade at $1.2958, after experiencing a decline of over 0.7% on the previous day. GBP/USD daily chart The euro, on the other hand, strengthened by 0.24% against the US dollar, reaching $1.1227. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting for additional insights into the rate outlook. Recently, ECB policymakers have adopted a more dovish stance, with some indicating uncertainty about future rate increases beyond the likely 25 basis points increase expected in July.
by FOREXN1
15
The SPX/DJI ratio points to a multi-year Bull ahead.This is a very informative analysis using the SPX/DJI ratio. In recent decades this has helped at identifying recession and expansion cycles. As this chart shows on the 1M time-frame, after each crash since 2000 and the Dot Com crash (Housing crash, China slowdown, Brexit, Oil Crsis, Trade War crash and the more recent Inflation Crisis), the ratio started to rise, meaning that the S&P500 started to outperform the heavily industrialized Dow Jones Index, which led to a new Bull Cycle. Since the bottom of the Dot Com Crash, the ration has been trading within a 20 year Channel Up, which is limited by a Lower Highs trend-line. If broken we can start talking above a new mega expansion phase. The 1M MACD just completed a Bullish Cross last month, suggesting that the current Bull Cycle may only be at its very beginning. Regardless of all that, we believe this is a very interesting ratio to follow and that has offered useful conclusions to you. We hope you enjoyed it! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
DJI (Dow Jones Industrial Average) Index Analysis 05/01/2022Fundamental Analysis: As we can see the Index has shown a very strong come back after the Covid-19 pandemic of March 2021 which caused the market to fall and create a panic to the world. Since then there are lots of changes to the world and the way companies are operating, such as releasing of their premises and offices as they should have discharge lots of their employees and the work from home schemes was the main reason to cut the expenditure of these companies drastically down. From the other hand, the market administration and governments including Banks has injected lots of funds and so called Rescue Packages and the market stimulant's packages to protect the Market from its Hard and Drastically fall to the lower levels and prevent a gigantic Global Markets Crises. These funds and injection of the cash to these companies along side of cost deduction due to their risk measurement policies, forced these companies to invest the receiving funds in to the companies assets to protect themselves from the Pandemic Crises and hedged their exposed risks instead of investing these funds to the new Projects or renovations which could Couse their Share prices to appreciate intrinsically but instead these investments in the assets made an inflation to the prices of the assets and created a bobble in their share value and Prices without having any inheritance or intrinsic values. so we can easily have a decision derived from the current situation that there has to be an other market fall and crises soon so the Price and its relevant intrinsic values get converged and market comes to its correct values. we can observe the same situation in many different centralized markets such as US500 and even other Stock Exchanges around the world like London and rest European market places to be in the same inflated status. there exist a huge chance of an other Global Market Crises coming soon which has the domino effect and Couse the entire markets to fall for some times . This fall of the market shall remove off the liquidity from the equity and debt market and streamflow them to some green heaven Asset classes including Gold and silver or even newly invented Technologies such as decentralized markets and Cryptocurrencies and DeFi. if we have a look at the Current crypto's Total Crypto Market Capitalization we can see it has a very good chances of Rally Continuation to some very high levels such as 5 to 6 Trillion dollars or even much higher. Gold even can see higher Prices such as 2500 USD per ounce which is currently ranging at 1800 USD. we even can some how speculate a 3 world War to be the initiator of this Market fall which is even not so far from the reality as the situation in middle east is not very stable due to the Iran and Israel disputes and new anti-covid's restriction social movements in Europe and America continent. we can see the same situation in US500 we shall analyze few other markets and indices and ultimately Propose some Assets which are at their low Points Currently and can be counted as under values at present times. Technical Analysis: we have used the Fibonacci retracement and Expansion from the low to the Highest point before the Covid pandemic to have a better vision of the Higher expansion levels for the post retracement's rallies and identify the Potential Price levels and resistance zones. where the market can show some stagnation and starts its retracement and price correction to the lower levels. There exist a Bearish Divergence of Price and MACD where Price has made higher high levels but MACD made lower Highs which is the most significant and strong Bullish Trend Reversal and start of Market fall and Price retracement and Value corrections. there are total of 2 Targets defined which have a very strong Support tendencies which can be interpreted as the maximum retracements points. there are two Resistance level are also defined to have a better vision incase of Current Rally Continuation which eventually can be counted as the Trend reversal points.
UShort
by BitonGroup
4
Daily Market Analysis - WEDNESDAY JULY 19, 2023Greetings, traders! Welcome back to our daily Market Analysis. Today, we have gathered the top news and interesting fundamental analysis for your consideration. Let's dive in and stay informed! Key News: UK - CPI (YoY) (Jun) Eurozone - CPI (YoY) (Jun) USA - Building Permits (Jun) USA - Crude Oil Inventories Market Sentiment Boosted by Strong Earnings and Economic Data, Gold Prices Soar to Six-Week High Tuesday's trading session brought a wave of optimism among investors, with the S&P 500 surging to new heights, thanks to impressive quarterly results from prominent Wall Street banks and other major corporations. The S&P 500 index demonstrated significant strength, recording a notable 0.8% increase, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw an even more remarkable surge of 1%, adding a substantial 359 points to the index. The Nasdaq also showcased its resilience, posting a solid 0.9% upward movement. Moreover, in response to the prevailing positive sentiment, gold prices experienced a surge, reaching a near six-week high. Investors appear to be reacting favorably to the combination of strong corporate earnings and encouraging economic data, fueling the upward momentum across various sectors in the market. NASDAQ indices daily chart Dow Jones indices daily chart S&P500 indices daily chart Bank of America Corp (BAC) emerged as a standout performer, driving a surge in banking stocks with an impressive rise of over 4%. The bank's second-quarter earnings exceeded analyst estimates, mainly attributed to the significant boost in loan income due to higher interest rates. This strong performance has solidified Bank of America's position as a key player in the financial sector and has garnered positive attention from investors. Bank of America stock daily chart Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Shines with Impressive Q2 Results Morgan Stanley (MS) proved to be another success story, witnessing a remarkable rally of 5% after reporting second-quarter results that surpassed estimates on both the top and bottom lines. The strong performance of its wealth management business effectively balanced out the trading business's weakness, which experienced a decline in equity and fixed-income revenue. This outstanding performance has garnered positive attention from investors and reinforces Morgan Stanley's position as a top-performing financial institution. Morgan Stanley stock H4 chart Tuesday's stock market session witnessed a slight downturn, influenced by US retail sales data that caused initial volatility but eventually settled. The June retail sales figures were notably weaker than expected, creating some concern, but the impact was partially offset by the revision of May's numbers, resulting in a mixed market sentiment. In response to a slowdown in consumer and producer price gains in June, the dollar experienced a significant decline. The market remains cautious as investors analyze the economic indicators to gauge the direction of future trends. US Retail Sales The recent developments in the US economy have led to increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will put a halt to its rate hikes after the anticipated 25 basis-point increase at the July 25-26 meeting. Fed funds futures traders are projecting an additional 33 basis points of tightening later in the year, with the benchmark rate expected to peak at 5.40% in November. On Tuesday, data revealed an unexpected drop in production at US factories in June. However, the second quarter showed a rebound, especially in motor vehicle output, which accelerated after two consecutive quarterly declines. Traders are now closely monitoring inflation releases from various regions, including the eurozone, Britain, and Japan, to gain further insights into whether inflation is cooling globally. These indicators will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and monetary policy expectations moving forward. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart As a result of the recent economic developments, the dollar index showed some volatility, last up 0.04% on the day at 99.924. However, it had previously fallen to 99.549, marking the lowest level since April 2022. These fluctuations indicate the significant impact of the latest data on the dollar's performance in the foreign exchange market. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar managed to gain 0.10%, reaching 138.83. This recovery came after the drop to 137.245 experienced on the previous Friday, which was the lowest level since May 17. The currency's rebound against the yen reflects the influence of the evolving economic landscape on currency pair movements. As traders continue to assess economic indicators and central bank policies, the dollar's performance is likely to remain subject to fluctuations in the forex market. Investors are closely monitoring data releases and inflation figures from major economies to determine potential shifts in monetary policies and overall market sentiment. USD/JPY daily chart Euro Holds Steady Amid ECB's Caution on Inflation On the flip side, the euro maintained its stability, trading at $1.1229, following an earlier climb to $1.1276, reaching its highest level since February 2022. European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member Klaas Knot's comments on Tuesday revealed the bank's vigilant approach towards inflation. Knot emphasized that the ECB would closely observe any indications of inflation cooling down in the coming months, ensuring a cautious stance on implementing rate hikes. This cautious approach from the ECB contributed to the euro's steady performance in the foreign exchange market. With investors closely monitoring central bank communication and economic indicators, the euro's movements are subject to shifts in market sentiment and policy expectations. As the global economic landscape continues to evolve, market participants will continue to assess data releases and central bank statements to gauge the euro's direction in the forex market. EUR/USD daily chart Market expectations are leaning towards the European Central Bank (ECB) implementing a 25 basis points interest rate increase in the upcoming week. On the other hand, the British pound experienced a marginal decline of 0.22%, settling at $1.3046 after reaching $1.3144 on Thursday, which marked the currency's highest level since April 2022. This volatility in the pound's performance reflects the market's sensitivity to economic indicators and interest rate expectations. These currency fluctuations underscore the significant impact of various factors on the global foreign exchange market. Traders and investors closely monitor inflation concerns and central bank communications, as these elements play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and currency movements. As the economic landscape continues to evolve, market participants will continue to assess data releases and policy signals to navigate the currency market's changing dynamics. GBP/USD daily chart The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is currently engaged in a balanced debate among policymakers, evaluating the effectiveness of existing restrictive measures and considering potential future actions. The central question revolves around the appropriateness of the current conditions and whether additional measures could yield positive or negative outcomes. Although the market is confident in the likelihood of another rate hike by the RBA this year, the exact timing remains uncertain. As demonstrated throughout this year, expectations can shift rapidly, making it challenging for investors to predict future developments with certainty. In the realm of precious metals, gold prices are once again exhibiting a gradual upward trend after experiencing a brief pullback in recent sessions. Initially facing resistance near $1,960, the price underwent a minor retracement but found support around $1,940. The ongoing support from lower yields and a weakened dollar continues to significantly contribute to gold's positive performance, as evidenced by the market movements observed yesterday. Investors are closely monitoring these factors as they continue to impact the precious metal's trajectory in the market. XAU/USD daily chart In response to the recent developments, gold has surged past the significant $1,960 threshold, attaining a nearly six-week high. Yields and the dollar have displayed fluctuations subsequent to the retail sales data release, influencing gold's performance in turn. Nevertheless, the market has not yet exhibited a clear and definitive direction for the precious metal. The crucial factor to observe now is whether gold can maintain its position above the critical $1,960 level, which it is currently approaching for testing. A successful hold above this mark could be interpreted as a bullish confirmation signal. In such a scenario, the next potential challenge for gold's price might be reaching the $1,980 level. Investors are closely monitoring these price movements and are poised to respond to any further signals indicating the precious metal's trajectory.
by FOREXN1
10
SPY - NIKKEI225 - We're In The Great Depression + INCOME DATA Problem with monetary fiscal policy and debasement? your markets start to hyperinflation especially when you try to patch previous bubbles *cough* QT *cough* BTFP *cough* ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- The average net yearly income of Americans during 1930 was $4,887.01 Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) 8.7% AFTER TAX - $4,788 $4,788 in 1930 is worth $87,476.76 today ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- The average net yearly income of Americans during 1933 was $4,218.40 Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) 24.9% AFTER TAX - $4,045 $4,045 in 1933 is worth $94,935.84 today ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- The average net yearly income of Americans during 2023 $74,738. Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) 3.6% AFTER TAX - $57,237 ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- CONCLUSION - The average American is 65.83% poorer than the average American during the great depression. Debasing the currency does not solve poverty and enhances it. All of this data is from the IRS FRED seems to not provide information prior 1960 now you know why they don't include this on the charts. Sadly I feel most people don't understand that what is coming is not a "recession" not a "08 RE crash" its going to be a foundational collapse of the entire US debt system / treasuries / stock markets / credit crisis / liquidity crisis. ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- United States Government Debt: % of GDP 2023 = 133% Japan General Government Gross Debt to GDP 1989 = 65% Federal Debt: Total Public Debt Q1 2023: 31,458,438 or 31.4 Trillion I'm personally putting a target for 2026 for the end of the US currency reserve system The only option here is to either print more 100s of trillions than Weimar Germany Or force the entire US & Allies onto a new dollar that will combine all G7 currencies. Hopefully people can understand why there's so much controversial developments on Russia & BRICS +, this current war is nothing to do with helping another country. Its because BRICS see's the end of the US system and they are preparing for it. (sources) www.irs.gov www.irs.gov Tax rates include normal taxes of 1.5 percent on the first $4,000 of taxable income, 3 percent on the next $4,000, and 5 percent on taxable income over $8,000, plus applicable surtaxes. Last law to change rates was the Revenue Act of 1928.
FRED:NIKKEI225
by FederalXBT
2
Daily Market Analysis - TUESDAY JULY 18, 2023Greetings, traders! Welcome back to our daily Market Analysis. Today, we have gathered the top news and interesting fundamental analysis for your consideration. Let's dive in and stay informed! Key News: USA - Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) USA - Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average concluded the trading session on a positive note, driven by the strength of the technology and financial sectors. Market participants eagerly awaited the release of quarterly results from major Wall Street banks and corporations scheduled for later in the week. However, the overall market gains were somewhat tempered by a stumble in the telecom sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average registered a modest increase of 0.2%, equivalent to 76 points. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq experienced a more substantial rise of 0.9%, reflecting the strong performance of technology-related stocks. The broader S&P 500 also displayed a positive movement, advancing by 0.3%. The market's attention remains focused on the upcoming corporate earnings reports, which are expected to provide insights into the health and performance of key sectors. Investors will closely analyze these results to gauge the overall strength of the economy and make informed investment decisions accordingly. NASDAQ indices daily chart S&P500 indices daily chart Dow Jones indices daily chart The release of Chinese GDP data disappointed as it fell below expectations, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. The quarterly growth rate stood at 0.8%, lower than the 2.2% recorded in the previous quarter (Q1), while the annualized growth rate of 6.3% fell short of the anticipated 7.3%. Additionally, retail sales for June showed lackluster performance, with a year-on-year increase of only 3.1%, significantly below the 12.7% growth achieved in May. These figures affirm the notion that China's post-Covid economic surge has lost momentum. Consequently, European indices felt the impact of this news, leading to a broad decline across the board. In the previous week, the dollar index experienced a notable decline of approximately 2.34%, raising concerns about its future strength. Whether the dollar will continue to weaken largely depends on signals from the Federal Reserve during its upcoming meeting. Market participants will closely watch for any indications of the Fed's monetary policy stance and their potential impact on the dollar's value in the global currency market. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart If the Federal Reserve signals that it has concluded its interest rate hikes, it is probable that the dollar will face challenges in recovering in the short to medium term. However, there are a few potential scenarios that could trigger a dollar recovery. The first scenario involves weaker-than-expected corporate earnings, although this outcome seems unlikely. The second scenario revolves around a shift in economic data from Europe and the UK that could exert downward pressure on the pound and the euro, both of which have demonstrated strength against the dollar. In the upcoming week, market attention will be focused on inflation data in the UK, with expectations pointing towards a decline to 8.2% from the previous 8.7%. If this decline materializes, it would create one of the widest inflation gaps between the UK and the US since the 1970s. It is worth noting that US headline inflation dropped to 3% last month, further highlighting the potential disparity between the two economies. The outcome of these scenarios and the interpretation of economic data will play a significant role in shaping the dollar's trajectory. Investors will closely monitor developments and adjust their positions accordingly, as the dollar's recovery hinges on various factors in the global economic landscape. UK GDP Indeed, the disparity in inflation rates between the UK and the US has been a significant factor contributing to the strength of GBP/USD. If the UK's inflation rate does exceed the Bank of England's forecast of 7.9% for June and comes in at 8.2%, it will reinforce the UK's position as a global outlier in terms of inflation. This could potentially lead to additional strength in the pound against the dollar in the short term. However, it is essential to consider other factors that could influence the pound's performance. While high inflation may support the pound, the UK's economic growth indicators will also play a crucial role. If the UK's economic growth shows more pronounced signs of strain, it could prompt the Bank of England to adopt a tighter monetary policy to address price pressures and curb inflation. Such a shift in policy could potentially offset the strength of the pound. Ultimately, the interplay between inflation, economic growth, and central bank policy will shape the outlook for GBP/USD. Market participants will closely monitor these factors and adjust their positions accordingly, as the currency pair continues to respond to developments in both economies. GBP/USD daily chart EUR/USD is currently surging to its highest levels since early 2022, and data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reveals a significant long position (+19% of open interest) on the euro in anticipation of the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. While data releases in the eurozone are relatively light this week, all attention is focused on an important conference organized by the European Central Bank (ECB). President Christine Lagarde and other ECB speakers are expected to provide insights during this event, potentially influencing market expectations leading up to the next policy meeting. Although it appears that a rate hike in July has already been decided, discussions have already commenced regarding September. The ECB conference has the potential to shape market sentiment and provide further clues about the central bank's future policy decisions. Traders and investors will closely analyze the statements and remarks from ECB officials for any indications of the timeline and extent of rate adjustments. The high levels of open interest in long euro positions indicate a bullish sentiment towards the currency. However, market participants will monitor the ECB conference and the subsequent developments leading up to the policy meeting for any potential shifts in expectations or surprises. The outcome of these events will likely impact the direction and strength of the euro against the US dollar in the coming days and weeks. EUR/USD daily chart With a lack of significant data releases in the US this week, market participants are closely monitoring developments to assess the future trajectory of FX markets. The primary focus revolves around whether investors will find enough catalysts to initiate short positions on the dollar ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting or if they will adopt a more cautious stance. From my perspective, the latter scenario appears slightly more likely, suggesting that the dollar may experience a recovery, potentially leading to support for the Dollar Index (DXY) as it climbs back above the 100.00 level. As traders weigh various factors and assess the overall market sentiment, their decision-making regarding short positions on the dollar will be influenced by upcoming events, central bank communications, and any new developments that may impact the US currency. While data may be limited this week, market participants will analyze these elements to form their strategies and position themselves accordingly in the FX markets.
by FOREXN1
16
Evidence For Super Bubble Theory SPY/Nikkei 225 Index 20231. I see record amounts of shorts opening still open, call selling, put purchasing speculators are shorter than 2000 / 2008 / 2020 combined. FRED raises rates to this level and yet nothing budges on a large scale so what's going on? 2. Take a look at the Japan Nikkei 225 Super Bubble during 1980s - 1990s, I use a (MA 23) on the Nikkei and double it (MA 46) for the SPY as that represents a similar trend forming. 3. Next take a look at the RSI for both charts when the bubble exploded in Japan the RSI completely reset to baseline. SPY RSI did not reset during the last selling period. 4. Further take a look at the aggressive angle drop of the Nikkei 225, when the show was over it was not a sideways moving bump it was straight down vertically. 5. Could it be the dead cat bounce? negative take a look at the Nikkei dead cat bounce a sharp minimal rise followed by another vertical fall, the current "bounce" is nearing all time highs and going sideways not straight up that would indicate "puts" "shorts" covering. 6. If this is a super bubble we should see short covering and capitulation to the upside over the next months and the market will grind vertically up suckering everybody back into the markets. 7. If I'm correct and this is a Left shoulder forming of a bigger head and shoulders that would put the SPY near 600-800. So the counter speculative bet would be to be long here till the SPY reaches that maximum velocity vertical move with a peaking RSI, this would be betting against the entire market being short, followed by once the market starts to get bullish and calls are bought and longs are open and the "Super Bubble" narrative is not a crazy term but the normal term, its time to reverse go short and sell everything. I follow Michael Burry as an interesting person who called a similar scenario from a book and I'm starting to wonder was he early again a few years of the peak
AMEX:SPYLong
by FederalXBT
9
Daily Market Analysis - MONDAY JULY 17, 2023Daily Market Analysis - MONDAY JULY 17, 2023 Key events: China - Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun) Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speaks Eurozone - ECB's Lane Speaks USA - NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jul) Friday witnessed a modest dip in US stocks, yet investor optimism prevailed amidst signs suggesting a prolonged era of disinflation. With contemplation on interest rates, market performance, and Federal Reserve decisions, the prevailing sentiment remained buoyant. NASDAQ Indices daily chart S&P500 Indices daily chart Dow Jones Indices daily chart Market sentiment reflects a growing confidence in the potential for a smooth economic landing. Yields have witnessed a notable decline, particularly towards the week's end, driven by factors widely regarded as favorable. Investors are recalibrating their expectations by removing inflation premiums, rather than assuming imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as a response to inflationary pressures. The unexpected decrease in US CPI has triggered market reactions, resulting in a narrowing of US-EU front-end rate spreads and a deepening inversion in US front-end rates. However, with the alleviation provided by the inflation drop and indications of progress towards a gentle economic landing, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current stance and refrain from significant rate adjustments for the next 12 months. Consequently, the US Dollar is not expected to undergo a substantial depreciation. US Dollar Currency Index In terms of the rates outlook, there is limited divergence observed within a significant portion of the broad Dollar index. Many policymakers in emerging markets (EM) are already taking action in response to the lower inflation environment. The Eurozone is anticipated to follow suit, aligning its rate adjustments accordingly. While US rates were predominantly influenced by domestic factors, there were indications towards the end of the week that Eurozone rates were starting to respond. This suggests that developments in the US economy and relief from inflation are beginning to influence global rate trends, including those in the Eurozone. The upcoming second-quarter earnings season is set to commence, with Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) being the first among the prominent growth and technology companies that have been the driving force behind the US stock market's performance this year. Tesla's earnings report is scheduled for Wednesday. Tesla stock daily chart Tesla is a prominent member of the "Magnificent Seven," a group of colossal stocks that includes Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META). These companies have experienced remarkable share price surges ranging from 40% to over 200% this year, playing a significant role in driving the overall rally of the S&P 500. While the market rally appears to be extending to other sectors, it's crucial to acknowledge that these substantial gains have been accompanied by high earnings expectations. Failure to meet these expectations by Tesla or any of the other megacap companies during this quarter's earnings reports could have a severe impact on equity indices. In addition to Tesla's earnings report, several other major companies are scheduled to disclose their results in the upcoming week. The banking sector's earnings season continues, with Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) announcing its results on Tuesday and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) on Wednesday. Tuesday will also see the release of US retail sales data for June, with an anticipated 0.5% increase attributed to a recovery in auto sales and higher gasoline station sales. This indicates that consumer demand remains resilient despite certain challenges. Investors will also closely monitor reports on regional manufacturing activity, which is expected to remain sluggish. Furthermore, the weekly data on initial jobless claims will provide insights into the current state of the job market. US Retail Sales Wednesday will see the release of the UK's June inflation data, a significant factor that will impact the potential magnitude of the Bank of England's next interest rate increase. It is expected that the headline consumer price index will moderate to 8.2% year-over-year, down from May's 8.7%. This easing is mainly attributed to a decrease in food and fuel prices. While core inflation is anticipated to show a slight decline, the services component is expected to remain stable at a post-COVID high of 7.4%. GBP/USD daily chart In the minutes of the June meeting, the Bank of England emphasized the potential need for further tightening if the economy demonstrated sustained inflationary pressures, particularly in the services consumer price index (CPI). Consequently, the upcoming August meeting of the Bank of England is expected to be closely contested. Should there be an increase in the services CPI, it would likely strengthen expectations for another 50-basis point rate hike. Conversely, a lower reading would likely shift the balance towards a more modest 25-basis point increase. The inflation data will hold substantial sway in shaping the central bank's decision regarding future adjustments to interest rates.
by FOREXN1
13
Bubbles don't finish unwinding sideways, it needs to be vertical There's two major problems when looking at the SPY today One - USM2 debasement is a real metric changer Two - The QE from 2021 has backfired Things are going terribly wrong for the FRED they know Japan tried forms of QE prior to the 1989 melt up that led to the demise of the entire Japanese economy for decades. In 2019 its was an emergency and if QE did not launch the GFC 2.0 would have happen during the credit freeze. The FRED are now trying to taper this path changing direction to not cause a Japan style melt up. 219% was the first warning sign Japan lost control and rates stopped working 205% is your warning sign the FRED lost control and the rates have once again stopped working. Both scenarios there was too much leverage for a safe landing forcing the BoJ and the FRED to lower rates near Zero. FRED's idea lets raise rates faster and higher than BoJ did to pre strike a market melt up. Warning Warning Warning FRED your rates are not working and if the SPY takes out the previous high its going to ignite the final wave of the bubble. ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- If this does playout the warning sign will be a parabolic almost vertical move to the upside once that happens you have about 2 years to avoid the vertical drop. Why is this happening if its so clear? simple the US government is in a debt deficit crisis the FRED is lying trying to send the economy to 0% inflation you cannot tax no inflation and the government system will halt, pretty soon the FRED will be forced into some form of yield curve control / QE to keep inflation elevated. Lessons from history YOU DONT PUSH THE QE BUTTON. YOU DO NOT PUSH THE YCC BUTTON. Once you do and your debt to GDP goes past 100% there's no going back without an eventual system meltdown.
AMEX:SPY
by FederalXBT
CPI, DXY, VIX Down. Stocks Up! Blowoff Top Underway!Traders, The big news this week was that inflation is now just under 3 percent! This is hugely bullish as any further certainty as to what actions the FED will take in the future only aids in investing confidence. Along with this news, we will cover the dollar decline, VIX 2-year low levels, and stocks beginning to break out even further, confirming my long-held blowoff top theory. 00:00 - CPI, FED rates, Unemployment Rate, DXY, VIX 10:00 - Bitcoin and Crypto
AMEX:SPYLong
by stewdamus
2
DOW JONES getting closer to Resistance Zone for a technical sellIt's been a while since we looked into Dow Jones (DJI) and made the bottom buy on the Channel Up last Higher Low (chart below): Right now the index is rising after a rebound on a Double Bottom on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The dominant pattern is a Channel Up and the secondary a Diverging Channel Up (dotted lines) that forms a Higher Highs rejection zone within Resistance 1 (34530) and its top. We will look for a sell on the next candle inside it (ideally with the 1D RSI on its Resistance Zone) and target the bottom of the Channel Up at 33650 near Support 1. If however the price breaks above Resistance 2 (34950) and the MACD maintains the Bullish Cross it is forming today, we will open a buy and target 33500 (just below Resistance 3). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingShot
1
Daily Market Analysis - THURSDAY JULY 13, 2023Key News: UK - GDP (MoM) (May) USA - Initial Jobless Claims USA - PPI (MoM) (Jun) Despite relinquishing some of its gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average concluded Wednesday's trading session on a higher note. This positive finish was primarily attributed to a decline in Treasury yields and a surge in the tech sector, fueled by data indicating the slowest inflation increase in more than two years. The market sentiment has been uplifted by optimism that the forthcoming rate hike, scheduled for later this month, could potentially mark the conclusion of the tightening cycle. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a 0.25% climb, translating to a gain of 86 points. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq witnessed a robust increase of 1.2%, and the S&P 500 displayed a notable rise of 0.74%. DJI indices daily chart Nasdaq indices daily chart S&P500 indices daily chart In June, the consumer price index (CPI) registered a modest uptick, rising by 0.2% following a 0.1% increase in May. Additionally, the annual inflation rate eased from 4% to 3%, reaching its lowest point since March 2021. These figures suggest a reduced level of price pressures in the economy. While there remains an expectation that the Federal Reserve will proceed with a rate hike later this month, the outlook for additional rate increases beyond July becomes less certain. The uncertainty stems from the possibility of upcoming economic data revealing a continued deceleration in inflation. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Jefferies, in a recent note, highlighted the importance of upcoming economic indicators in determining the trajectory of rate hikes. If indicators such as the Employment Cost Index on July 28, along with employment and inflation data released in August, continue to exhibit a slowdown similar to the recent Consumer Price Index data, it suggests that the rate hike scheduled for July could potentially mark the conclusion of the current cycle. In line with this sentiment, major technology companies, including Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META), experienced a rebound following a recent downturn. This recovery was fueled by a significant decline in Treasury yields, driven by the expectation that the Federal Reserve's rate hikes are nearing their conclusion. GOOGL stocks daily chart MSFT stocks daily chart META stocks daily chart Microsoft's shares surged by over 1% as the tech behemoth made significant strides in the completion of its $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard Inc (NASDAQ: ATVI), the renowned game developer responsible for the popular Call of Duty franchise. The acquisition received a boost as a Federal judge dismissed the Federal Trade Commission's request to delay the deal, citing insufficient evidence to support claims of potential competition harm. This favorable development played a crucial role in driving Microsoft's strong performance in the market. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart The sell-off of the US dollar gained momentum after the release of the CPI data, leading to a rapid approach towards the 100 level on the dollar index. This consistent and significant movement has positive implications for global inflation dynamics. A weaker US dollar tends to drive down energy and raw material prices, which are often denominated in US dollars. Consequently, lower prices for these commodities can help alleviate inflationary pressures on a global scale. In contrast, a strengthening US dollar contributes to inflationary pressures worldwide. Therefore, the depreciation of the US dollar can provide relief in the face of such pressures. EUR/USD daily chart In the currency markets, notable movements were observed. The EUR/USD pair experienced a surge, reaching the 1.1150 level, indicating a strengthening of the Euro against the US dollar. Similarly, the GBP/USD pair surpassed the significant 1.30 level, signaling a rise in the British pound against the US dollar. Conversely, the USD/JPY pair extended its decline, falling below the psychological level of 140, implying a weakening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. These fluctuations highlight the dynamic nature of the currency markets and the interplay between different currency pairs. USD/JPY daily chart The anticipated release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) figures for June today is expected to provide further insight into the global economy's disinflationary trend. Forecasts suggest a significant deceleration in the headline PPI, dropping from 1.1% in May to 0.4% in June. The core PPI is also projected to experience a more modest slowdown, declining from 2.8% to 2.6%. The weakening figures from the PPI may have implications for future Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, indicating a continued disinflationary environment. This reinforces the notion that the forthcoming rate hike in the United States will likely be the final one in the current cycle. In summary, the June PPI numbers are expected to confirm the prevailing disinflationary trend in the global economy. The projected slowdown in PPI figures suggests potential effects on future CPI data and supports the belief that the upcoming rate hike will be the last one.
by FOREXN1
11
$DJI $NDX $SPX $RUT all pumping but giving back, what now?DJ:DJI is having hard time here, again. The RSI is much lower, negative divergence, steam running out? NASDAQ:NDX is higher but also losing steam, RSI lower. SP:SPX AMEX:RSP & AMEX:IWM all put higher highs but they're also giving back. All the #indices have low volume. Kind of normal for this time of year. TVC:VIX is lower....... Sell on news? Lots of GAINS over past few months. Hmmm, let's see what transpires by end of day. #stocks
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Daily Market Analysis - WEDNESDAY JULY 12, 2023Greetings, traders! Welcome back to our daily Market Analysis. Today, we have gathered the top news and interesting fundamental analysis for your consideration. Let's dive in and stay informed! Key events: New Zealand - RBNZ Interest Rate Decision USA - Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) USA - CPI (YoY) (Jun) USA - CPI (MoM) (Jun) Canada - BoC Interest Rate Decision USA - Crude Oil Inventories The energy and large technology sectors were the primary contributors to Tuesday's gains in the stock market, while investors awaited the forthcoming inflation reports with bated breath. The rise in value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 317 points, or 0.9%, while the rise in value of the S&P 500 was 0.7% and the rise in value of the Nasdaq was 0.6%. DJI indice daily chart SPX500 indice daily chart As a result of an improved demand outlook, oil prices skyrocketed, which provided a boost to the energy sector. There is a growing expectation that the oil market will tighten in the second half of this year. This expectation is supported by falling crude production as well as Saudi Arabia's commitment to cutting output by one million barrels per day beginning in July. The sentiment surrounding energy stocks was further buoyed by reports of potential stimulus measures in China, which is the largest importer of energy in the world. The stock of 3M Company (NYSE: MMM), which was upgraded by Bank of America to Neutral from Underperform, increased by almost 5% as a result of the upgrade. It is anticipated that the manufacturer of industrial and consumer products will benefit from the conclusion of legal issues, which is anticipated to enhance the performance of the company. A settlement agreement was reached between 3M and the government last month to resolve allegations that the company contaminated public water systems with PFAS, which are also known as forever chemicals. MMM stock daily chart After receiving an upgrade from Hold to Buy from Jefferies, JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) led the banking sector higher just as earnings season was about to begin on Friday. As justifications for the upgrade, Jefferies pointed to the robustness of JPMorgan's balance sheet as well as the company's potential for earnings. Gains were also seen by regional banks, which have come under increased scrutiny ever since the banking crisis that began earlier this year. After Bank of America reaffirmed its recommendation to buy the company's stock, US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) saw its share price rise by more than 3.5%. US Bancorp is well-prepared to handle sector headwinds, according to Bank of America, and is expected to achieve superior earnings growth and stock performance, according to the statement. JPM stock daily chart Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), which benefited from its two-day prime day sales event, stood out as one of the few stocks in the technology sector that was trading in the positive territory. During this time, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) struggled to make gains, despite the growing optimism surrounding the impending acquisition of Activision by Microsoft for $69 billion. Activision is the company that makes the Call of Duty video game. The attempt by US regulators to temporarily block the deal due to antitrust concerns was rejected by a federal judge in a ruling earlier today. The forthcoming publication of US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data has become the sole focal point of attention for stock futures trading in both the United States and Europe. The majority of speculators are expected to be surprised by the US inflation data, which analysts strongly anticipate will exceed their expectations. AMAZON stock daily chart The change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the United States is expected to be 0.3% month-over-month (m/m), while the change in the CPI year-over-year (y/y), which is the most significant change, is expected to be 3.1%, compared to the previous reading of 4.0%. If the actual number comes close to or matches the forecasted 3.1%, it will be seen as positive news for the market because the inflation target set by the Federal Reserve is 2%. On the other hand, market participants are likely to rejoice if the reading falls below 3.1% because this indicates a significant shift in the trend of inflation. Nevertheless, it is essential to pay close attention to the trajectory that the reading of inflation will take in the future. Although the data that are released today will show a significant drop, which will be driven by tighter monetary policy, an economic slowdown, and lower oil prices, these factors will have less of an influence on the inflation number going forward. As a consequence of this, the gap between the Fed's target and the actual reading might not expand by an additional factor of two from its previous magnitude. GOLD daily chart It is anticipated that the price of gold will be volatile throughout the course of the day. Even though the support level at $1,900 is strong, it may be put to a significant test if the inflation data continues to show no signs of easing. Gold prices would be supported by a sizeable decline in the reading of inflation, which could potentially lead to an attempt to test the $1,950 level. On the other hand, if the reading indicates that inflationary pressures will continue for some time, the price of gold may go up even further. As a result, there is a greater chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, potentially on more than one occasion.
by FOREXN1
14
$DJI $NDX $SPX $RUT Long & Short term viewsBringing indices up again, Let's look at the SHORT TERM first. (Unfortunately can only show 1 chart, see profile for more info) DJ:DJI longer term still showing an ascending triangle, current pattern is sideways channel, there's some negative divergence. NASDAQ:NDX maintains the uptrend, HOWEVER - we're seeing SEVERE negative divergence. SP:SPX also in current sideways channel, and also showing SEVERE negative divergence. TVC:RUT completes the bunch with a sideways channel and some neg divergence. ---------------------------------------------------- Longer term #indices are interesting. Using weekly. DJ:DJI showing slight negative divergence, needs to break out FAST NASDAQ:NDX Extremely overbought, last 3 times; 2 corrections, 1 major drop. SP:SPX Nothing out of the ordinary, lil overbought, see #NDX notes. TVC:RUT Severe underperformer and it looks like it wants to catch up to the others. #stocks
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC