DJI Looks bearish Im alreeady with a short entry under the resistance entry so now im on BE , its a free risk trade so i will let him go on support target.
DJI
DJIDJI
Looking at the charts pattern
we can see two IHS ...
and possible tgts are
1250/2500/5000 points from neckline...
just how charts showing...
Vedang :)
S&p500 UpdateThose who follow me know that I am meticulous, and I count waves on ALL timeframes, including very low timeframes, before concluding the big picture.
The surge in DJI on Friday led me to believe that the diagonal I've been following since March 13 is invalid. However, after examining 1-5 minute timeframes and above, I still think we are in the final stages of the ending diagonal, also known as the rising wedge.
However, the price must not exceed 100% red line (wave three length) and must not fall below 0 - x line subsequently (the hard guideline for wxy double zigzags) for the scenario to be valid. If either occurs, I will be left scrambling for alternatives.
In the next post, I will review DJI, which I have not visited for a while.
SPY Super Bubble Forming Once In 100 Year Event
Picture tells everything, there is not even near enough pain in the markets, fastest rate hike mimicking the Nikkei Bubble, 1928 Bubble.
This is a text book once in 100 year Super Bubble event.
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions is currently at -434.2K meaning mostly short
US Bank deposits have flew to Money Market Funds scared of bank runs MMF siting at $5,223,061 Units: Millions of Dollars
Something does not feel right at all, the interest rate hike cycle has not worked and the US is in even more debt having to raise the ceiling
Key point here is to prepare for the actual crash if this plays out, and unemployment going near 20-30% followed by hyperinflation
The fact that the market has bounced this powerful and majority of the retail market is sitting on shorts is extremely scary, as you should know these recoveries don't take years it will be a depression for decades.
DOW JONES on a confirmed Bullish break-out.Dow Jones (DJI) has broken above the short-term Channel Down today, fulfilling the conditions for a buy break-out as presented on our previous analysis (see idea below) and is now even above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line):
To add more to the bullish sentiment, it even broke above the Diverging Lower Highs and has no real Resistance until 34270, which is our short-term Target. The current rebounded was achieved after the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) held as Support on three separate tests.
The hidden Buy Signal however was derived by the 1D MACD, which completed today a Bullish Cross, the first since March 21 that was the previous market bottom and the start of the current long-term Channel Up
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
$DJI leading, 1st time in long time, What about breadth? $RSPIs value coming back into play in the #stockmarket?
The NASDAQ:NDX does seem a lil over extended
Today is the1st day in LONG TIME that the DJ:DJI is leading and the RSI looks healthy
SP:SPX is over the 50% Fibonacci
AMEX:RSP (Equal weight #SPX) has chance to perform here
Let's see if the breadth of #stocks gets better
US30 Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US30 for a selling opportunity around 33200 zone, US30 is trading in a downtrend and currently it seems to be in a correction phase in which it is approaching the major trend at 33200 zone.
Trade safe, Joe
DOW JONES Trading approach going into JuneDow Jones / DJI is trading inside a Channel Down pattern for more than a month.
The price is now under the 4hour MA50 and as long as it closes there, sell and target close to Support A at 32600.
A crossing (and candle closing) over the 4hour MA100 will be a short term buy signal targeting 33400 (top of the Channel Down).
A crossing (and candle closing) over the 4hour MA200 will be a long term buy signal targeting Resistance A at 34260.
Previous chart:
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Equity SpringThe Bear Extermination mission is now complete. There are no bears alive to tell the story.
Last winter will be written in the history books. But remember, history is written by the winners.
After all the Bears got trapped, we are left with a market full of neutrals and bulls.
The most extremist of bears are gone. Negligible now the effect of the baby bears.
Spring season greets the only ones left alive.
Last year Bears got scammed. Panic ensued when equities began dropping rapidly.
Little did they know, that what they lost in Equity value, they gained in Dollar value.
Investors' sentiment can easily get played. And it can easily be measured.
The incredible thing about the chart above, the Equity Put Call Ratio, is that it proves the overwhelmingly negative sentiment that exists now.
Everyone "braces for impact", volatility is reaching incredible lows because nobody trades, expecting the crash to come any day now.
Low volatility doesn't necessarily lead to higher volatility.
Spring is the best season for traders.
It may very well have come and passed, and we haven't realized it.
Equities have indeed slowed down.
But perhaps they are now moving as slow as it gets.
It is certain however that many more springs will come and go...
A trader must be wise, and adapt in the new balances.
One used to profit indefinitely from the perfect equity-bond investment strategy. Now this does not work.
Bonds will get bust! And money will flow out of bonds and seek other shelter.
Now one can get rich just by holding onto fiat currency.
Gold "currency" is fighting for survival...
While crypto is beating most kinds of investments.
It seems that money is flowing out of Bonds and Gold, and into Equities and Energy.
The message is clearly written.
Either you find the truth by yourself, or you listen to what others have to say. Just make sure to listen to the right voice.
May the truth be your guidance, not wealth.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
P.S. There are two ways to become wealthy. Theft and inheritance.
Aristotle Onassis, Billionaire.
P.S.2. Buffett longs oil.
Markets move back into IndecisionAnother update on the US Dollar index and its negative correlation with major markets. DXY has moved back into an area of indecision with regards to recoveries occurring across markets:
Bitcoin, Gold, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq are all negatively correlated with the Dollar Index, with few exceptions, over the last year or more.
Many of these are also at major decision areas or have recently faced major resistances to further recovery. It is possible recoveries could continue while the dollar index remains in this area of indecision, or they could also remain in an area of indecision as well.
The main point here is to pay attention to what DXY does next, and:
-- For as long as it continues to be negatively correlated with these other major markets, expect them to do the opposite when DXY finally breaches and remains above or below the blue box above.
-- They may also do the opposite for any major moves within the indecision area as long as negative correlation remains true.
This is another major update to the following post:
Plus a more recent major update related to Bitcoin:
And, if you'd like to use the correlation indicator I recently made for comparing multiple markets, you can find it here:
Please take a moment to hit the thumbs up button if you like this idea, and I'd love to hear your comments whether you agree or have an alternative view that you'd like to share.
Thank you for reading and best of luck with your analyses and trading plans!
-dudebruhwhoa
DOW JONES: Hit the 1D MA200 after almost 2 months.Dow Jones touched today the 1D MA200 for the first time since March 29th, almost 2 months after the strong bullish break-out. The 1D timeframe is technically bearish (RSI = 38.438, MACD = -67.410, ADX = 30.240), indicating that we are approaching low enough levels to justify a long term buy. However we are only willing to open a buy position as long as the 1D candles close over the 1D MA200 and target R1 (TP = 33,600).
If a candle closes below the 1D MA200, we will open a sell and target the bottom of the dashed Channel Down (TP = 32,000). Once the 1D RSI gets oversold, we will again buy on the long term, aiming at the top of the seven month Channel Down (TP = 33,900).
Keep in mind that the 1D MA200 has held and provided excellent buy signals, three times and only once on March 9th it broke.
Prior idea:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
AW Dow Jones Analysis - The Climax of a Long-Term Trend...Join me in this insightful video as I provide a concise explanation of the final moves anticipated in the Dow Jones. We explore the journey of the market since the great depression and analyze the current highs. Drawing upon AriasWave methodology, I discuss the notion that we are on the cusp of witnessing the conclusion of the long-term trend within the next year and a half.
Additionally, I shed light on how the formation of the market top may not only be attributed to the trend's end but also to the tendency of markets to exhibit symmetrical patterns at their peaks. While head and shoulders patterns are often found in these areas, it is essential to understand that the resulting moves align with larger patterns on a broader scale.
As we navigate the complexities of the market, understanding these dynamics and patterns can provide invaluable insights into potential future movements. Join me as we delve into this analysis, guided by the principles of AriasWave, to gain a deeper understanding of the Dow Jones and its impending journey.
Please note that all analysis and predictions are subject to change based on new information and market developments. It is important to conduct individual research and analysis in conjunction with this discussion.
Dow Jones is forming a Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern!!!It seems that Dow Jones Index is forming a Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern on the daily time frame so that it has managed to create bottoms and tops according to the pattern.
I expect a third bottom to form in one of the 🟡PRZ(Price Reversal Zones)🟡 .
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Analyze (DJIUSD), Daily time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position that you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
DOW JONES Emerging Bullish Cross may take it higher.Dow Jones (DJI) has broken above the former long-term Channel Down, hitting our previous upside target (see idea below) and is now forming a new pattern:
The new pattern is a Channel Up, which has been on a correction leg (blue channel down) since the 34270 High, similar to the one from December 01 to January 05. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting a loose Triangle pattern (dashed trend-lines), which above it targets Resistance 1. Our target is slightly lower at 34250.
The critical factor is on the 1D MACD, which is close to forming a Bullish Cross. Every MACD Bullish Cross under 0 in 2023 has been a major Buy Signal, and interestingly enough both have been formed while the price was consolidating within a Triangle.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
DJI ARE you rdy for sell ?🧨🧨👌The fall of the Dow Jones index / Are you ready to sell?
It is easy to see that the Dow Jones index is going to fall, and the targets that I specified for you will first reach 31486.38, then it will have a corrective trend up to 32550.68.
The next target that the index will see will be 28781.97 and that is where you can decide to go long.
Bitcoin's Negative Correlation with DXY - Part IIHere's a longer-term look at Bitcoin's negative correlation with the US Dollar Index, in looking at an overlay of the monthly DXY on top of Bitcoin.
CC also displays significant negative correlation, and during the brief periods where it has been positively correlated, that correlation has been insignificant. At least this has been true over the last two major bull runs/corrections and halving cycles.
The two also look like a mirror image of each other, and as mentioned in previous posts - this makes sense. If the dollar is strong, we should expect Bitcoin to weaken, and vice versa.
My previous post about this, here:
The same is true for Gold vs. DXY, as shown below, and for stock markets as well, most of which have been positively correlated with Bitcoin, especially more recently since the 2020 March black swan event. Here are a couple different looks at this:
From the perspective of DXY and its correlation with Bitcoin, Gold, Dow Jones Industrial, and Nasdaq.
And then a look at Gold vs. DXY:
Should DXY move up here, the Bitcoin market and other markets mentioned above may be in for much further and deeper correction. Conversely, should it move down, we could see extended recoveries or even new ATHs as shown in the diagram above. Either way, we should be aware of DXY's movements:
Long-term DXY looks incredibly bullish, with breakout, after re-test, after breakout, after re-test:
Meanwhile Bitcoin could go in either direction as well, and I would imagine it will go in the opposite direction of DXY here, long term. It could first reach 38k to create a new high following DXY's more recent low, and then head back down towards the lower target at 13k should DXY continue up:
Long-term if DXY moves up beyond 112-114 -> 118-120ish, expect blood in the markets.
SPX/DJI: A Peculiar CorrelationPrice action discounts everything.
The most important included. It discounts prejudgement.
Price discounts everything every time...
...except when we don't want to allow it to change our hypotheses.
High yield rates are synonymous with recession.
We are convinced that high yield rates is the thing the majority hates.
From this chart above, we conclude that this may not be happening after all...
The majority (500 SPX companies) is growing against the minority (30 DJI companies) in periods when yield rates consistently rise.
Everything is relative. Recession is relative. Bubbles are relative.
A Big-Tech bubble was formed throughout the last two decades.
Now, in a high-yield environment, this bubble is fed using derivatives.
With incredible correlation, as yield rates increase, the relative density of QQQ derivatives increases. While this is an experimental calculation, only QQQ is showing this kind of derivative filling. SPX and DJI show more stable behavior.
Given that in DJI most companies are Big-Tech, the following chart comes up to prove the long-term fundamentals of big vs small.
Curiously, yield rates target a range of about 8%, similar to the inflationary highs.
Inflation seems to be calming. Many wish rate cuts...
A rate cut schedule however may signal the beginning of a recession for the US.
Cutting rates will push bond prices higher. Thus, a money outflow from equities and into bonds is created. This outflow will be a cause for SPX weakness.
As the SPX*yields chart suggested, a near-term recession may be coming.
For the following few years, SPX seems strong as the yield-SPX/DJI correlation showed.
It can take decades though for balance to shift decisively.
We need both oscillators to get bearish for a convincing move.
While Buffett advised investing into oil, but not all oil is the same...
(High yield rates for the US will drive prices lower. Yield-SPX correlation points us to SPX bullishness in a high-yield environment)
In a progressively higher-yield environment, the outflow from bonds and into equities can get immense.
A US debt default will outright crash bond prices, aiding the potential for SPX to move higher.
Not all is well for the US though. Money is already seeking other ventures...
Don't fall for the news-driven trap.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
P.S. A US Default might not be as light as I describe.
Who knows how big the scale of such an event might be...
P.S.2. I am posting a link to the indicator I am using:
It is highly experimental, but I am beginning to get a good grip of it. Many adjustments may follow. This indicator can be used in any timeframe, and in charts of any scale.
#us30 will perform an enormous rally today from this point.Us30 will rally by about 680 points today from this point. If/when this pans out give me a like and a comment.
SPX & Dow divergencesI firmly believe the Dow transports are an important leading metric to identifying the overall strength in the economy.
Since the highs in Feb, transports have not participated in the rally to the upside.
What this tells me under the hood of this economy we are seeing weakness.
DOW JONES: Inverse Head and Shoulders on 1W target 34,350.Dow Jones hit again the underlying Support which marked a low on January 16th. That was the Left Shoulder (LF) of a potential Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and if it holds again, this one will be the Right Shoulder (RS). The 1W timeframe is technically neutral (RSI = 49.180, MACD = 258.440, ADX = 22.862), which makes it a solid buy opportunity on a two month perspective. Our target is the bottom of the R1 Zone (TP = 34,350).
Prior idea:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
DOW JONES Death Cross on 4h after 3 months.Dow Jones posted its first Death Cross on the 4h timeframe since February 22th.
This should prepare us for more selling if Support (1) breaks.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell under Support (1).
2. Buy over the MA200 (4h).
Targets:
1. 32450 (Channel Down bottom).
2. 34500 (Megaphone top and Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. RSI (4h) is posting a price action indentical to the one on the start of the Megaphone.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES Big Buy signal if it holds the 1D MA50Dow Jones (DJIA) has gone a long way since the efficient buy signal we gave exactly 2 months ago:
The index is right now testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has closed 3 straight 1D candles above it and 4 since May 04. Since it broke below the Channel Up, going to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 32800 is possible but not as long as it keeps closing above the 1D MA50, which has been established as the short-term Support. Instead, as long as it does, we are bullish and targeting 34250.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
