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The Fed's Pivot - What to Expect in the Months Ahead In this video, I explain what to expect in the months ahead, following the Fed's pivot back to monetary easing. Also, I wanted to make several notes: When I said that it's almost never better to own derivatives than holding an asset outright, I do realize the importance that derivatives can play with leverage and risk management. When I said that fear is always highest at the +2 standard deviation of the log-linear regression channel, this was confusing because typically fear is highest when price reaches the -2 standard deviation. In this particular ratio chart, fear over the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust was highest when Bitcoin outperformed it enough for the BTC/GBTC ratio to reach the +2 standard deviation. When I said that the log-linear regression channel is one of the best indicators, I do realize that compared to other statistical methods, this indicator is quite rudimentary. Nonetheless, I find it to be quite useful. I apologize for the poor audio, this seems to be a matter of how TradingView is uploading my audio. On my end, my audio is very clear. Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
FRED:WALCL
by SpyMasterTrades
38
DOW JONES: Rejection on the 4H MA50 keeping it neutralDow Jones found Support on the S1 Zone as we called last week (see idea at the end) and closed 4 straight candles inside it. The 1D time-frame remains technically red (RSI = 37.784, MACD = -381.660, ADX = 48.656) and the rejection on the 4H MA50 is keeping the price at bay. This appears to be like the rejection on December 21st 2022, which kept the price inside an Ascending Triangle before a rise to the top of the Channel Down. We will maintain our bullish persctive within this patternand target P1 (TP = 33,450). Prior call: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
ULong
by InvestingScope
3
$NDX looks good, better than $DJIRecently we made a post on how $NDX would outperform $DJI being it lacked #banks & #oil & it has done this. As we have stated for some time, we're still CAUTIOUS BULL on the #stockmarket. Even after this latest fiasco. CAUTIOUS is the key word. Daily $NDX broke channel to upside AND longer term downtrend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Weekly chart shows #NDX holding above the weekly moving avg's & there was a bullish moving avg crossover, yellow circle, & has held. 12900 is an important level for #NASDAQ 100. Breaks that 13700 is next target. $DJI looks okay. It held well until recently. It is close to forming a bearish crossover but we'll see. IMO likely not. While #DJI is much weaker as a whole cherry picking individual #stocks on the index should be okay. We stated $MSFT $AAPL have done well & newbie $AMGN & $VZ for yield. #msft #aapl #amgn #VZ
NASDAQ:NDX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
DJI - World's End Scenario - short to 200 MMARevisiting this scenario where 1929 style crash fractal is overlayed with current market structure. It was just an excercise and not a prediction but having reviewed the data again and considered Robert Prechter's Fibonacci predictions about the end of Super Cycle wave 5 I am giving it another chance with a speculative short. The short initiate at break of support and will initially act as a hedge to target the 200 Monthly MA / $18k (50% drawdown). Stop at $35,500 (3%) Best, Hard Forky The scenario set out last year with some minor corrections breaks down as follows: - Monthly Chart, 200 Monthly MA - Crash time frame in 1929 to 1932 lasted about 3 years - Today I would estimate this as 10 year period based on the fractal . Interesting outcomes from the experiment assuming the DJI has topped: - DRAWDOWN: 1929-1932 drawdown was 90% setting market back 14 years. From Point A to C, this will take us to $3,500. That sets us back by 25 years (no clear correlation). - FRACTAL: The fractal is close to the present day formation assuming the DJI has topped out (close correlation). - MA: The MA is pacing at a relatively similar trajectory - from the touch in 2009 to today's position at $18,000. Coincidently $18,000 is the bottom of the March 2020 crash at point B. (Interesting coincidence) - SUPPORT: The immediate crash period from point A to Point B would take place around (correction) Feb/March 23 - BEARISH DIVERGENCE : The RSI structure is very similar on lead up and localised formation, (correction) with an uptick in RSI on the retrace. In 2020 we had the covid pandemic which delivered the recent low point on the RSI but the 1929 has the same structure, just a more stable price. Can we trust the 1929 data? (coincidence) - TRADING: Whilst a crash of this magnitude would require some form of major catalyst destroying a generation of wealth, it offers amazing trading conditions both long and short for swing traders on longer timeframes. There are about 6 swing long opportunities during the 10 year crash, each lasting over 1 year and offering 40-50% upside Is it likely, of course not. It's only happened once in a century :) Is it possible, well it has happened before :) ... hmm, that bearish divergence don't look good... it might be time to look at shorts again? Best, Hard Forky DJI - World's End Scenario
DJ:DJIShort
by hardforky
5
DJI - Evaluating Crisis By ImpactBy far the conflicts seen from Russia and Ukraine outweigh the monetary greed fueled by each of the earlier struggles. With the world seemingly in a 'cold war state', all of this preceded by a deadly pandemic that took over our world. It makes sense to evaluate crisis based on impact, and the impact seen on the market just isn't enough and doesn't align correctly with other aspects including cryptocurrency. If a big drop occurs on DJI as suggested by this chart, it will not be followed by Bitcoin . Bitcoin will act as a hedge. The last wave down of a massive pattern formation.
TVC:DJI
by Bixley
Who would you trust with your money?Spoiler alert: More evidence against NDQ in this idea! US Companies are organized in clusters, some of them are DJI, SPX, RUT, NDQ etc. Some of them are more trustworthy than others. And by that I mean which of these sets one can depend on. DJI is indeed a dependable group of companies, the so called Blue Chips. Composed of the 30 largest US Companies. These companies aren't playing around, they have deep foundations that can withstand the worst of crises. The opposite of foundation is hollow ground. In finance, one hollow ground could be derivatives. More info about the possible repercussions of derivatives in my last idea: Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction. -Warren Buffett I have talked about how you should not blindly trust the price of the main indices. And as we know, the effect of derivatives is embedded in the price we see every day in our Watchlists. Equity price is a victim of derivatives. You know, these derivatives which by default have no foundation and are susceptible to a possible crash like the .com bubble. Let's hope a ".options" crash doesn't come for derivatives. And if it does, let's hope that the "weapons of mass destruction" was a figure of speech! So how big is their effect? BIS warned about the hidden debt, the "everything bubble" we have created and we are comfortably sitting inside it. Buffett has warned about derivatives. The only thing I can analyze is these hyperbolic charts, namely SQQQ (short QQQ) and it's cousins DOG (short DJI) and SPXU (short SPX). To remotely begin to make sense of their nature, we have to reduce their exponent. Dividing a chart by an arbitrary amount doesn't "flatten" it to a lower growth scale. We will have to raise SQQQ to 0.2 for example to bring it down to meaningful and comparable levels. I tried normalizing these 3 beasts, using the following methodology: For the entire history of SQQQ we calculate the SQQQ^-1 chart, and measure how much it grew in this period. As seen above, SQQQ^-1 increased by 17000x. To make it comparable to QQQ, we progressively increase the exponent so as to make QQQ and SQQQ growths identical. If this explanation didn't make sense, the following chart may clear things out. So we come up with the following "balanced" derivative charts. SPX // SPXU^-0.216 DJI // DOG^-0.62 QQQ // SQQQ^-0.244 WIth the // symbol I mean that these charts move in parallel. So what can we infer from them? More speculation maybe, more questions than answers... But still, there seems to be some important difference between them. I will divide these two charts to make some sense. When the chart increases, the "real" part of the index is increasing. When the chart decreases, the "derivative" part of the index is increasing. So in a sense, the chart increases when indices grow fairly , without cheating using derivatives. First SPX Next DJI Finally QQQ (NDQ) Painful... Is this derivative bubble the only reason NDQ is still afloat in this immense QT environment? In an attempt to keep business going and as money gets scarce, Big Tech is pushing prices higher using an immense amount of derivatives. Are these derivatives going to be the doom of NDQ? All of this may be speculative and some charts may not be financially true. But sometimes, price simply discounts everything. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
AMEX:DOG
by akikostas
10
DOW JONES Don't get confused.It's starting a new multiyear rallyThis is a chart we've looked into in the recent past for Dow Jones (DJI) but amidst the recent uncertainty, we think it is necessary to refresh in order to keep things into a longer term perspective. The time-frame is the 1W (weekly) where Dow is seen forming an Arc pattern on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which since the 2009 housing crisis bottom, has formed every time it corrected on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and rebounded (excluding of course the March 2020 COVID crash). On both of these occasions, this Arc pattern was an Accumulation Phase before a new multi-year rally. The 1W RSI is also on a familiar pattern with those prior fractals, forming an Arc construct on a Lower Highs trend-line. Is this the final accumulation before Dow starts a new multi-year rally? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
4
DJI | Wyckoff DistributionYou might not recognize this chart. To get some background on it, refer to the linked idea down below. You will find it in my profile. As it turns out,it looks like we are in a classic Wyckoff Distribution. It is remarkable that this is hidden beneath our noses. The timing and the accuracy of the future phases may not be completely correct, the path is illustrative of the phases, it isn't drawn using wave theory. I will gladly accept any helpful/corrective comments regarding this. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:DJI
by akikostas
4
Dow going Down?The Dow is testing an intermediate support at 31776 but we're seeing a really nice potential pullback to an overlap resistance of 32490 which is also a 38% fib retracement. A reversal from here could see prices drop all the way down to the next overlap support at 30285. It's worth noting that price has also crossed below the Ichimoku cloud suggesting that some bearish momentum might be on the cards. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
DShort
by Rockqet
Things look ugly for $DJI but there's ray of light$DJI has seen a ton of SELL volume & in reality the environment doesn't seem conducive of any positives. Bu there are some. Pluses: Doji - Needs more confirmation tomorrow. Oversold on daily & support is 32.5k Major long term downtrend is around 31.1k Inverse Head & Shoulder can still pan out as long as #DJI doesn't break below the last barrier. Technically, it can go to MAJOR support in the 30k area. Yes, it's ugly but that is some hope for the bulls. The other indices don't look as good.
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$VIX hits top part of Symmetrical triangle$VIX rarely tends to trade in a small & tight range. #VIX Sold off big last couple months & traded in a decent range for a bit & recently, including today, popped big. As you can see it hit the top part of the Triangle Formation. Hard to call here but stocks gaining some momentum, being that many were OVERSOLD, including $DJI & $NDX, $SPX and so on, is not out of the question. Risk reward @ day lows in #stocks was good. A lot of fear out there is good for reversals. Keep eye out on 4 hour charts for a good idea of where we stand. FYI $DJI 4hour close was NOT the best setup BUT it did form a BULLISH Engulfing with GOOD VOLUME. IMO 32.5k on #DJI is good & if it breaks & holds that is a good sign.
CBOE:VIX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$DJI has HUGE BUY volume the last few hours$DJI bounce decently off support on daily charts. This may take some time to heal. However, IF #stocks can hold for the next few hours it can be okay. The only reason it's not pumping higher is $GS & $JPM, #banks. On the 4Hr we see a DOJI formed MORE than 4 hours ago & on the CURRENT 4 hr candle it is being ENGULFED WITH VOLUME. We want to see a close above 32k but higher will mean more conviction. The belief is that #rates will take a pause while we have this bank fiasco happening. 32500 is our full exit point. Although we have been loosening positions in this rally for the last couple hours. Would keep re-buying lightly on pullbacks. Bottoms can take some time to form.
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
11 Trade Ideas Predicting The DJI Crash | Where Is The Bottom?The Dow Jones Industrial Averages index has been holding much, much better compared to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes. While the other two indexes have been down considerably since we started to predict the crash (18% SPX & 25% NDX), the Dow Jones (DJI) has gone down only by 12%. This is the last one of this series of articles. Feel free to relax as we get started! Thanks a lot for your support. --- Let's start with the chart above on the Monthly timeframe. The DJI closed last month below EMA10 and it is now signaling lower. We use EMA10 to gauge the short-term potential of a cryptocurrency trading pair, stock or chart. So the short-term potential has gone bearish... This we normally say based on the daily (24 hours per candle) timeframe. Since this is the monthly, each candle is ~30X stronger than the daily. Which means that this very simple signal can yet be very strong. --- We started in late January to look at the Dow Jones. We don't need/use 100 indicators, the very simple moving averages for us are more than enough. Here we saw that the Dow Jones is no exception, it was also set to drop! (Jan. 24) The Dow Jones Industrial Average Is No Exception (Crash) Two days later we looked at the famous 'Falling Wedge" pattern and compared it to 2020-2018... This one on the monthly timeframe. (Jan. 26) Dow Jones Industrial Average Monthly Chart Analysis (30%+ Crash) We can appreciate how the DJI was looking better than the SPX and NDX... Yet, the indicators, such as the MACD, gave it away! (Jan. 28) The Dow Jones Industrial Average: Not All Red Dead cat bounce, anyone? Easy to tell... We stay conservative though to not scare you away. How to prevent a crash if the Feds policy do not change? A: Impossible (Feb. 7) DJI Weak Bounce And here too for the initial phases of the correction we look at the classic ABC. (Feb. 11) DJI Crash Last Reminder To me, the next one was the biggest give away of all. The long-term cycles are very strong but what to say when an index loses a 20 years long support? We are talking about the MACD on this one... (Feb. 14) DJI And The 20 Year MACD Support We step back to sum it all up... It is possible that the DJI goes for a 50% or more drop... Who knows, let's ask the chart! (Mar. 4) DJI | Dow Jones Industrial Average (Additional 55% Drop) By mid-March we shared the "bear-run"! This is happening across all markets and will continue a bit longer before we see sustained/long-term growth. (Mar. 13) DJI Bear Run This is all for the major US Indexes. We will go back to Bitcoin soon and then focus 100% on the Altcoins which is where the money grows. --- In all, we published: (1) 26 trade ideas for the SPX (all bearish). (2) 14 trade ideas for the NDX (all bearish). (3) 11 trade ideas for the DJI (all bearish). For Bitcoin (BTCUSD), we share the Macro/Long-Term view as well as the short-term bounces/moves when prices go up. You can count on us being here by the time the bottom is reached and when we hit $300,000 or more in 2025 and beyond. Namaste.
TVC:DJIShort
by AlanSantana
7
Analysis of a Crash Past & Present Here’s a 12M chart of the Dow. Before the Great Crash of 1929, the Dow bounced strong off the midline in 1922 before reaching out a peak at the top line of the trend channel, and then making a sharp reversal across the midline straight to the bottom channel, hitting its low in 1932 before the damage was done. Turn the page to the present and the chart is so closely aligned it’s hard not to at least fathom the possibility. We bounced in the midline in at the end of the financial crisis in 2009, strong rebound to the top line peaking by 2022. Just from a basic trend analysis, this reasoning is sound for where we land, no after how difficult it is to fathom, no matter how much we like to believe the market only goes up. Add in Global events over the past few years, the global pandemic led to financial stimulus globally that acted to numb the pain & record profits for companies across industries meant combined, more money in the most hands at the same time than ever before. It will take years for companies to achieve growth YOY after this, now add in inflation offsetting wage increases & decreasing profit margins. Global hostilities aren’t going away, regional banks maybe be the first trigger to hit the panic button as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is already posing a detrimental risk to major companies in the US and globally. Interest rates are continuing to rise, demand is peaking, and demand will not reach the levels of the pandemic fueled by stimulus and record profits for years to come. This isn’t an Armageddon world end analysis, this is a sound conclusion to a number of major events on the global stage.
DJ:DJI
by njscipione
💾 DJI Bear-Run 2023 & Beyond | The New World OrderWhy do you think there is such a strong rush to close/shutdown everything crypto? The traditional global financial system is about to crash and they don't want competition. Remember, they are owned by banks and banks are used to having a monopoly on money. If the financial system crashes due to its many weaknesses, it will lose all of its customers to the other side. If they can shut down the other side, people can just cry and rebel but they would have no other choice other than to use what is available. Now there is an alternative. So they will have to either come up with real solutions (not likely) or become obsolete as it is the norm. The only constant is change in this world. The DJI is about to crash. We have a peak January 2022 followed by lower highs. This month the DJI has gone below EMA10 and the indicators are trending down. It seems that it will be worse than 2008... No worries, back in 2008 we didn't have Bitcoin, it will be interesting to see how things will develop this time around, to say the least. Bitcoin was invented for this exact type of situation. Will the experiment work? Or will Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency go down with the rest of the old system that it is intended to be the solution for? My money is on change. If you look back at history, nothing ever stays the same. Let it crash... A New World Order will emerge. Namaste.
TVC:DJIShort
by AlanSantana
11
The Bear Party Hasn't Even Started YetEvery major crash in modern history came after rate hikes completed. Either during the plateau or during the first cuts. No bulls can explain how we're going to avoid that fate this time. We hiked twice as fast as 2007 and 2018 hikes, yet somehow there's gonna be a soft landing? Yeah right LOL It's already looking like a broadening wedge like 2000; and about to break the 13yr trendline for the first time since 2020. See inflation chart below: Worst case scenario(red), we get rapid deflation that causes a 6 month bull run at first, but ends with devastating crash. Like 2019, however we can't afford to write more stimulus checks. So there will be a depression, not a recession. No V recovery. Best we can hope for is more inflation(yellow); so the government can try and print it's way out of debt. Chop sideways roughly -50% +100% for a decade or more. Pipe dream is green, the Fed managing to thread the needle and get inflation between 0-3% for years to come. All while the U.S. Treasury manages to service it's interest payments, despite failing to close the gap between tax receipts and spending. This is not going to happen. It's physically impossible to produce 5M qualified workers overnight to fill the gap between job openings and job seekers. Layoffs won't help either. By then the recession is in full swing. Higher taxes coming as well. Growth is dead.
FRED:EFFRShort
by Nicklaus68
4
Best guess: current situation in MarketI think the market is consolidating for the next push up... but probably won't be consolidating here anymore, rather lower is coming... I'm fully expectant and prepared for LOWER LOWS to come... so if you want to follow idea on Long, do know it's early still... Tape Wise, market flipped bull mode on October 13th... price going lower is not "PER SE" a bear tape. I'll update if I sense the stink of bear taking hold of market... his claws printed in Tape... for now price is just controlabelly and smoothly cooling off & falling lower (remember, "velocity" is not all there is to bear tape... yes, bear tape requires velocity, but a relatively speedy down trend is not on its own a bearish tape...) So: until Tape flips bear and trend is broken, we assume after lower prices, higher ONES will come...
TVC:SPXLong
by LotusTrading20
1