SPX | The cake is a lieThis is not the 2008 Recession. This is deception. This is the Recession nobody remembers.
SPX by itself doesn't show the entire truth. The monster of QE clouds your vision, clouds your judgement. It's strength, it's pressure pushes everything upwards so much. Too much... Until you are in a delusion.
The 2020 Black Swan was not black. He was in the shadows. One of the lights that can help you see him is the SPX*US10Y chart. In the "Related Ideas" there is the link to the inventor of the chart.
This is the 2020 Black Swan we all witnessed.
This is the 2018 Recession that really happened.
For reference, this is the modified chart from 2008.
And the chart from 2022.
Pattern taken from 2008 and fits like a glove.
We are also in UTAD, in a long-term Wyckoff Distribution.
Is it a conspiracy theory? It could be. The easiest method of manipulating the economy is with bonds. They make them and they define the base yield. So in theory and in practice, they can affect the economy any way they want. In short, they could in theory hide a recession in an ocean of money, in the era of information and QE.
They are after your money. They will do anything to take them. Watch out. Who knows what trap they will set up now...
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
DJI
Intraday Bullish setup on DJIOn a weekly chart, the price broke above the upper band of an expanding wedge channel, now it just made its second retest of the upper band- making that level a bit more stronger (provided it does not get broken).
So, i am having 2 bias, one is mid-term bullish bias as shown in the above chart. A break above the Intraday - OB followed by a retest would mean that buyers are still very much interested in riding the price back up.
Alternatively, if the price break down and fall back inside the wedge (weekly) then the FVG could get filled up and it's going to be a quick bearish down pour.
So, stay close and watch how it plays out.
AW Dow Jones Analysis - Final Move Before Crash In Progress...In my previous video I highlighted exactly what I thought was going to happen and thus far it has materialized.
The level of detail in that video goes to show how precise AriasWave can be when used correctly.
This kind of analysis cannot be found anywhere and if you think that's funny you should see the bigger picture.
Slowly but surely, I am formulating a view that will more accurately be able to predict the next moves in the market for years to come.
My two favorite charts to understand this process are the Dow Jones and Bitcoin.
With the guide of the 10-year bond yields analysis it serves and the indicator for when the Fed will tighten versus stimulate.
With the help of the US Dollar and Euro analysis I can also make the prediction that a fairly decent bull market awaits us in the years to come.
I have linked some related ideas down below.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
20 Reasons for buy US30 Dowjones 🔆MULTI-TIME FRAME TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS OVERVIEW☀️
1:✨Eagle eye: Super Bullish and already swept multiyear Liquidity NO weakness here back to back High
2:📆Monthly: The bulls Are so much in power After form, and Valid Hidg prices Are Also confirmed Valid low to And making a Monthly Flag type pattern A continuation sign toward the upside
3:📅Weekly: After a Choch price, we cannot break the previous Pullback and take more robust Support here. also, a weekly FVG and OB
4:🕛Daily: A valid Higher Low and a Proper wick off Spring After tab Daily OB here a strong bull reversal patterns also appeared, so we need to seek only buy entries from here
😇7 Dimension analysis
🟢 analysis time frame: H4
5: 1 Price Structure: Sideways after a bearish Trap On recent low
6: 2 Pattern Candle/Chart: Bouble Bottom, Bearish TRap, Sharinking Candle, Move Start with Gap ups, and also makes a poll and flag type pattern here everything BUllish
7: 3 Volume:
8: 4 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi: Taking resistance on 60 levels that indicate just for sometime price may halt here, and complete flag patterns on h4 but may not go down 33310 level because here h4 FVG a strong support
9: 5 Volatility measure Bollinger bands: even it on above middle band after a w pattern, but we need a strong upside breakout or proper structure even on 1min tf
10: 6 Strength ADX: DMi cross bulls are in strength right now
11: 7 Sentiment ROC: USD is weaker indices are stronger
✔️ Entry Time Frame: 15M
12: Entry TF Structure: bullish and retest their 1st OB also make a bullish momentum candle
13: entry move: just impulsive move is started
14: Support resistance base: 15 min ob Support
15: FIB: trigger event occurred, and even the trend line also broke
☑️ final comments: Buy
16: 💡decision: Buy
17: 🚀Entry: 33433
18: ✋Stop losel: 33299
19: 🎯Take profit: 34167
20: 😊Risk to reward Ratio: 1:5
🕛 Excepted Duration: 4 day
DOW JONES: Hit all of our targets. Expect a retrace.As Dow Jones hit the 4H MA200 today turning 4H technicals overbought (RSI = 71.290, MACD = 117.130, ADX = 48.966) it also achieved the two targets we set last week:
Our whole plan was based on the huge demand on the November Support and the fact that the previous drop to that Support was very similar to February's. If this continues to hold, then we are at the part of the sequence as denoted by the circles. A retrace to Fibonacci 0.382 level would be very reasonable technically and once the 4H RSI turns neutral again below 55.000, we will buy again and target Fibonacci 0.786 (TP = 34,050).
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💾 Surprise Crash Or Green Monday?Are we set to get a surprise crash?
Why this question?
Because the chart looks really good and when the SPX grows, everything grows.
When everything grows, everything grows.
Barring a surprise crash on Monday, we get a green Monday...
Ok, let's read the chart!
The SPX closed Friday green. It tends to follow up the next week (tomorrow).
The SPX bounced from MA200, confirming this level as support.
The SPX moved on Thursday above EMA100, on Friday it moved above EMA10, EMA50, EMA21 and EMA300. EMA300 being the longest moving average and one that has been tough on the SPX for many months. Staying above it, the grey line on the chart, opens the door for long-term growth.
The RSI is bullish and strong.
The MACD is showing a bullish cross on the 4H timeframe, on the daily is trending up.
- Gold looks strongly bullish, I just shared a chart.
- The DJI looks bullish.
- Bitcoin is consolidating solid, strong as well. Not really bullish? Trading above EMA50; bullish as well.
- I've shown you dozens and dozens of Altcoins producing massive explosions recently, hundreds if we go back to February and more than 500 that have been growing and printing higher lows since the start of 2023.
Surprise crash or green Monday?
What do you think?
Namaste.
SPX | Did you win?Ah the beauty of Fibonacci... when after a painful recession for equities, we reach the golden ratio alive and well. The satisfaction!!!
Now we can go all-in equities! Perhaps you are one of the lucky ones who bought the October bottom, then congrats to you!
How much was your profit really? After all, this was a peculiar year... Yields massively increasing, equities dropping. It is like a dead end, it feels like a maze...
The main chart does show a significant recession... But we have passed it!
Some charts suggest that we had no recession this year...
Other charts suggest the complete opposite!
Note that these are my charts. I was the contradictory being...
Look at what the last chart means:
LQD is the investment-grade ETF. On the second chart it is compared with SPX/(modified-yields) and on the third with SPX/(modified-yields*PPIACO). The correlation is as good as it can get...
This is a mess... what can we infer from all of these charts?
Something fundamental can help us clear the picture. We can differentiate between 4 distinct periods of the economic cycle.
A. Equities increase while yields decrease (bonds increase)
This is the QE model, which followed us for many years. During this period, the only winner is the one who had only stocks in the beginning. Investing everything in the stock market is your best bet.
B. Equities increase while yields increase
This is the scenario when the economy is at it's best. During this period, everyone wins. Both the one who has stocks and the one who is selling/lending cash (sitting on cash) win. Any kind of investment is good in this period!
C. Equities decrease while yields decrease
This is the nightmare of the wealthy ones, and this period that rarely comes. It happened during the 1929, the 2000 and the 2008 recessions. During this period, you win if you have nothing invested, and without any money. Borrowing money to buy stocks is the best plan.
D. Equities decrease while yields increase
Sound familiar? This is 2022 in a nutshell. During this period, I hate to disappoint you, the only one who wins is the one who has a lot of money. Sitting on cash and lending it is your only option. The immense amount of money that the US printed, is now sitting in the hands of few. If you traded for profit, then you are probably at (or near) net-zero.
In 2022, you won if you sat in cash. We have gone full circle, from advising into sitting in cash, to advising into selling, to buying, and back to the beginning. Finance is complex...
To conclude, my head is spinning... I have no idea what all of this will lead to. It is as if we are in a lose-lose scenario.
Invest in bonds? But is the US going to be able to pay them out, after decades of free money? And with so much money in circulation, how many bonds are being purchased at these "extortionate" rates? How in the world will the US be able to pay out so much? Invest in equities? They look like they will face years of stagnation.
The only thing that smells lately is the smell of war, the smell of "I have nothing to lose". The only thing to gain now is resources.
Commodities are bull flagging against everything. More specifically, the combination between the cost of commodities and the cost of their production added together. This makes me believe that a small increase in production cost will lead to multiplicative increase in the final product value. This is a recipe for hyperinflation. And the big profit is if you own the land the resources are produced. (Ukraine for wheat, Taiwan for silicone, etc...). Everyone is willing to fight for these lands...
I am adding this chart for the picture on the left. The CEO of Bank Of America is preparing for US bankruptcy.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
💾 DJI Bullish But Why? & BitcoinNotice how the August 2022 peak is followed by a strong correction, instantly.
The November and December 2022 peak is followed by sideways consolidation.
That's why I consider this chart to be bullish.
I make the same argument for Bitcoin.
In the past, each time a peak is hit we have a strong correction immediately after.
In the present, as each new peak is hit, we get sideways consolidation.
That's a bullish signal.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
DJI intraday sets up for DAILY movementsFrom yesterday
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11:34AM
1hr VOLUME SUCKED
BUT
That 1Hr Doji is a good sign & RSI positive divergence
4Hr looks ok, reversal but not strong enough
NEED more volume
More later after
#DJI $DJI #stocks
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12:21PM
$DJI Volume pumps up more & we close the 4Hour (around 130est) ABOVE 32793 = GREAT sign
(((FYI IT DID NOT DO IT)))
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4:05PM
It' been a 1k point battle for $DJI
Today we close with a DOJI
Again, this week IS IMPORTANT!
Flat day but 1st signs of buys
Time running out but still holding!
---------------
TODAY TODAY TODAY
$DJI bulls are fighting hard & not giving up here
30Min looks ok
Changed 20 EMA to 30 & painting lil better picture
1Hr reversed back to 20EMA
4Hr still not there, Needs to trade north of RED EMA
BEST if resolved TODAY
DOW JONES This is the bottom. Fractals from 2022 confirm.Not surprisingly to us, Dow Jones has stayed inside the High Volatility region that we have identified back in late November:
The 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) has supported twice already since November 10 and is now going for its 3rd hold. If we pay a closer attention to the 1D RSI we see that it has printed the very same pattern it made on all Lows during the 2022 Bear Cycle. That is basically 3 occasions. The RSI is very close to the 30.00 oversold barrier and as the 1D MA100 supports, it makes it the most optimal long-term buy level on a 2-month horizon.
Even though it has been mostly trading sideways within the High Volatility Zone, on RSI terms, it is comparable to all 2022 Lows that bottomed out on an oversold 30.00 1D RSI and started an aggressive rally in the form of a Rising Wedge.
Our Targets are: short-term = 33400 (Pivot Zone), medium-term = 34400 (February 14 Resistance), long-term 35500 (April 21 Resistance).
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DOW - Any relief rally is guilty until proven otherwise !Seems to me like this could unfold as a complexe correction if bulls are to remain in power longer term.
We could see soon a move up but if it stays sideways it's most likely going to be a wave (b) of higher degree Y imho.
Look for individual names showing relative strength right now, those are most likely to be the next big leaders.
DOW JONES bottomed out on a 4 month Support!Dow Jones almost hit Support (2) at 32470 a level that worked out twice since November 9th 2022, starting strong rallies to 34390 (Resistance 1).
The same Declining Support on price - Rising Support on the RSI (4h) Bullish Divergence was formed on the December 20th bottom.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 33050 (MA50 (4h))
2. 33500 (MA200 (4h) and bottom of the Pivot Zone.
3. 34300 (under Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The MA50 (1d) moves parallel with Support (2) and essentially has provided the same level of support pressure as that level. Trend changes long term if it breaks.
Please like, follow and comment!!
DOW JONES hasn't been such strong buy since Dec 20thDow Jones' long term pattern is a Channel Down. On this chart you can see that all 1D candles have closed inside the Channel regardless of the length of their wicks.
The 1D RSI is inside a Channel Down of its own. The price is approaching a Triple Support Zone: the 32500 horizontal Support, the 1day MA200 and the bottom of the Channel Down.
Last time all three were fulfilled was more than two months ago, on the December 20th low. This is a strong buy and our target is the top of the Channel Down at 33950.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
SNP500 Bullish Short-Term Expectation Analysis This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I recommend you to not just execute based on these levels. I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
Click on Boost (like) to support these free analyses!
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- Wyckoff
- Etc.
1 2 & 10 Year yield seem to be toppish short term, $VIX in range🚨#yields look to be topping🚨
Things are FALLING into place!
Been posting on $DJI & $BTC RANGES
Risk reward was great late last week & on this dip (focusing on DOW JONES ATM)
$VIX staying 18-23 is ok
Adding more $ on dips
#stocks #crypto
$DJI call was spot on, bounce so farWent back to basics last week
Loaded up on $DJI, specifically $UDOW
Will unload as #DJI closer to resistance, red dotted
FUD to lower #stocks #crypto
Then buy the sellers
CLOCKWORK, media is GREAT contrarian indicator
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THIS WAS POST LAST WEEK
$DJI What do you see? (Was a CHANNEL & $SJI close to support)
IMO RISK REWARD entry point good here if we close above the dotted line
$NDX doesn't look as good but will likely follow
More POVs for $BTC
#BTC Up & Sideways Channels = both good 4 bulls
#crypto
No more upside for the marketKey support line just broke.
I was thinking inverse head and shoulders pattern was formed.
I wanted to see some more bullish move.
But after seeing this pattern is all broken.
I admit and stay away from the market or short the position from now on.
Fed watches pce more than cpi.
Since the pce was too high. We have to admit that this market has to go down and Fed might have to raise 50bp in march.
Double-tops Across Markets if DXY eventually turns back upAs other major markets presently indicate similar targets, Nasdaq index also shows a pattern with measured targets pointing towards a same or slightly lower high double-top.
I'm seeing this as a possibility across stock and crypto markets in correlation with a long-term bullish US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) that recently experienced a strong correction and may be preparing for another leg up.
Pre-requisites
This and the other double-top ideas shown below all hinge on DXY not continuing to drop, and also not immediately spiking back up. It would probably need to at least spend 2-3 (or up to 6-9 months) consolidating in the area where it is now (99-105 or so), and then move up.
DXY and how it relates
First some general thoughts on DXY and how it correlates with stock/crypto markets:
Other Potential Double Top Patterns in US Stock and International Crypto Markets
SP500 Measured Move towards same or slightly lower or higher high double-top:
Dow Jones Index Measured Move towards slightly higher high double-top, likely a new but weak ATH:
Bitcoin Measured Move towards same or slightly lower high double-top:
DXY Correlation of Peaks vs Troughs in Crypto and Stock Markets
DXY Peaks/Troughs Correlation to Total2 Troughs/Peaks:
DXY Peaks/Troughs Correlation with SP500 Troughs/Peaks - this chart is older and has since made a new peak/trough for DXY/SPX and is likely headed from current trough to new peak for SP500 (first a double-top prior to suggested recession):
DOW JONES Aggressive bullish reversal expectedDow Jones (DJI) broke below its Pivot Zone and Higher Lows trend-line and as per our strategy published 2 weeks ago, we took that break-out sell opportunity:
With the 4H RSI though printing Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows (i.e. a Bullish Divergence) and the price approaching the 32480 Support level and the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), which both provided Support and started aggressive rebounds on November 09 2022 and December 20 2022, Dow is turning into a medium-term (at least) buy opportunity again.
In fact the very same RSI Bullish Divergence formed the December 20 Low. It is important to add that this Low was formed after a 4H Death Cross, a pattern that we already formed again 2 days ago.
We are buyers again on Dow, targeting the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Then we will either wait for a pull-back or buy when the price breaks above the Pivot Zone and re-tests it as Support, in similar fashion as on January 06 2023 and January 23 2023. Long-term target 34300.
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Confirmed - S&P loses 20 day and is going to test 200 day SMAFollow up to my previous post. The big sell today confirms that the 20 day EMA is lost and a test of the 200 day is next. Not sure how low it will go, but the blue trend line, the 200 day, and the previous orange trading channel should provide support. Lose that, then down to the dotted red center line around 3700. If that comes true, then there is ample reason to believe it will go lower. Fingers crossed.