DOW JONES High Channel Up symmetry points to 46000.Dow Jones (DJI) easily hit our 45000 Target as suggested on our November 20 idea (see chart below), and immediately turned sideways, consolidating basically for the past 6 days:
This is not the first time that we've come across this consolidation within the 4-month Channel Up as the exact same sequence was last seen during September 20 - October 08. As with today's price action, the consolidation also took place above the 1.0 Fibonacci level and once completed, it gave one final push to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension before correcting back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As a result, we now set a new Target for the end of the year at 46000.
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DJI
Dow Jones_1HDow Jones index analysis Elliott wave analysis style Completion of five rising waves in Hotah time and the possibility of a downward correction Important resistance 44800 The main and important support is 43,900 Meanwhile, in the long term, any low towards 43900 can be bought for the long term.
DOW JONES targeting 165000 in the next 8 years.Dow Jones / US30 is following very distinct and easily recognizable patterns over the years and decades and this chart gives you the complete picture since the 1930s and the Great Depression.
We are currently well underway inside the Bull Cycle, which is the market's 3rd major these past 100 years.
With the support of the 1M MA50, this Bull Cycle (via a Channel Up pattern) is expected to continues rising until the point it breaks aggressively over the pattern towards the last years of the Bubble in 2029-2033.
From bottom to top, the previous two Bull Cycles rose by an incredible +2500%.
This means that long term and patient investors can still buy now and enjot another 8 years of immense growth and returns, targeting 165000.
Note that the RSI underneath the chart is on the 12M timeframe but achieves displaying the situatio more accurately than any. Clear Bear Cycle bottoms and breakouts over the MA when the Channel Up Bull Cycle started among all Cycles.
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Are we waiting for #FOMO in #SPX to spark Fomo in #BITCOINSeems, clear to me the obvious answer is YES!
So let's cheer on #STONKS cracking 5,000 on the #S&P
As we would likely see risk be fully turned on, and cash to flow into the #Crypto space.
FWIW
I think the #Economy stinks
but that doesn't necessarily mean assets can't go up in number.
There are plenty of examples where this is the case.
Argentina. Turkey and so on.
#BLOWOFFTOP scenario is still in play.
DOW JONES New High before any correction.Dow Jones / US30 is on a long term bullish pattern on a Rising Support that extends all the way from the August bottom.
The U.S. elections initiated the most recent rally that has now transitioned into a consolidation Channel Up.
Similar such patterns in the past gave one final High as long as the 4hour MA50 supported.
Buy and target 45365 (+2.50% rise)
Previous chart:
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#TheStrat Weekly/Monthly Setups For DecemberSPY - Closed previous D/W/M close to HOD after making new ATH, so the D/W/M all finished bright green. No evidence of sellers anywhere since every TF above the 60 is currently green. 60 closed slight green, but this can easily be justified as eod corrective activity since all 60 min candles before the last one of the day were green, and every TF above the 60 is green. Going into the new week and month, we can expect buying to continue until we see a lower low on the D, but the real sign of buyers vanishing / sellers gaining control for me will be a Lower Low on the weekly.
Main Monthly Setups To Watch:
Bullish :
DKNG - 1-2-2 Q revstrat in force, 1-3 M, 2-1 W
PM - Hammer 3-1 M
BA - Counter Hammer Failed 2D M
MRK - Hammer M at Downside Exhaustion Level
Bearish:
MU - Shooter 1-3 M, Failed 2U W
ZIM - Rev Strat M at Upside Exhaustion
Main Weekly Setups To Watch:
Bullish:
RTX - 3-1-1 W
PLTR - MoMo Hammer W, Inside D
GOOG - RevStrat Hammer D, Inside W
Bearish:
GAP - 3-1 at Exhaustion
COIN - 2-1 W, Failed 2U D
PINS - Shooter RevStrat Week, Shooter Inside D
RDDT - Inside W (11 Consecutive Weekly HLs)
SQ - Red Inside D/W at Q Exhaustion
DOW JONES is respecting our major August buy call beautifully.Dow Jones (DJI) is about to hit the 45000 Target on our last buy call (November 20, see chart below) and complete a +8.30% Bullish Leg rise within the Channel Up that started on the August 05 Low:
We are very pleased also to see the index making enormous progress after our big August buy (Aug 07 idea, see below) which was exactly on the last major Low of Dow:
As you can see, we successfully formulated that trade based on the extremely symmetric price action of 2016 - 2017. We've explained the notion on the previous idea, but we will refresh your memory if you read this analysis for the first time.
Dow was already trading within a Rising Wedge pattern in 2016, which towards its end broke upwards and first completed a +19.50% rally. The second Leg of the Bull rally was completed on a +30.70% rise from the pull-back Low and then the markets entered the multi-month volatile period of the U.S. - China trade wars. Key Lows of the Bull Rally were made in October 2016, April 2017 and the last in August 2017. It is important to note that after the August 2017 Low, the index had the most aggressive part of the rally, attached to the top band of the Bollinger Bands range, which is what we've called before "riding the BB wave".
Back to more recently and the Rising Wedge that started in 2022, it broke upwards in identical fashion as 2017 (first Leg +23.40%, Lows in October 2023, April 2024 and the most recent August 2024, which as you saw was our last major buy). Even the 1W RSI sequences between the two fractals are similar. What's left now is for Dow to complete a +30.70% rise from the August 2024 Low, in order to conclude the pattern from 2017.
Our long-term Target since August remains thus intact at 49000. Keep in mind that this is the essence of long-term investing/ trading and this is the strategy with the highest winning rate. Note also that if it takes the same time to conclude as the 2017 Leg did from the August 2017 Low (green Rectangle, 168 days), then the peak should be formed end of January/ early February 2025.
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Dow Jones Industrial out of GasWhen I started with trading over 3 decades ago, I was told that the DJI is often the forecaster of the bigger market direction.
This week, it looks like the DOW is out of Gas.
Struggling at the U-MLH indicates the need to find balance. Balance is at the Center-Line, so DOW(n) we go.
With end of year staring at us, it's time to reduce exposure, or at least adding to the Portfolio hedge, specially when VIX is low.
Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 25th: SP500, NAS, DOW = BUY THEM!The three indices are bullish. They each had a Daily +FVG they found support in, and were bullish from that point of contact. The DOW is the strongest, and may be the best bet, even though it is a wildcard most times. The SP500 is probably the safest buy, as the NASDAQ is the weakest of the three. If things turn bearish for any reason, the best short will be in the NASDAQ.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
DOW JONES bouncing on the 4H MA200 and 0.5 Fibonacci.Dow Jones (DJI) found Support yesterday exactly on its 4H MA200 (red trend-line), after just a brief break of the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. The dominant pattern has been a Channel Up since the August 05 Low and within it, every 0.5 Fib test from the previous Low, has been the most effective buy entry as it started the new Bullish Leg.
The technical symmetry within this pattern is astounding as every Bullish Leg hit its 1.236 Fibonacci extension, completing a +8.30% rise. The ROC Higher Lows indicates that a rebound should be expected right now.
We haven't had a 1.236 Fib extension since the elections Low, so naturally take this 4H MA200 / 0.5 Fib bounce to buy if you haven't and target 45000 (also +8.30% rise).
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DOW JONES: Bottom buy signal. Target 45,600.Dow Jones just turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.982, MACD = 339.670, ADX = 28.026) as it hit today the 4H MA200 after exactly 2 weeks. This is getting very close to the bottom of the 14 month Channel Up. Technically the last two HLs were formed when the 1D RSI double bottomed on the 30.00 oversold limit. Overall, this is a good enough buy opportunity to target yet another +6.80% bullish wave (TP = 45,600).
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Weekly Leading Indicators: BEARISHManaged to streamline down to these couple of charts for a set of leading indicators. Simple trend analysis and techincals are being used here for Weekly charts and so weekly analysis is appropriate to set the stage for a top down view.
First up (on the top right corner) is the Combined US equities chart that shows a strong marubozu the previous week (from elections outcome). However, the following week was not a confirmation, but instead casts doubt on the sustainability of the spike to rally on.
Point being, the massive breakout is met with a Dark Cloud Cover that breaks back into the Decision Box (purple box) which was previously marked out for the consolidation range boundaries. Typically when a breakout is followed by a breakin, it tends to follow through to the other end... a break down from the box support. Yellow circle is where it should go through or bounce at.
What gives on this is that the following Leading indicators are eluding to...
SG10Y Govt Bond Yields
The uncanny correlation of this to the US Equities Indexes is remarkable and have been a hallmark of my recent posts and analyses. Here we have a breakout of the trendline resistance. Means equity markets are going Bear.
RED Flag
High Yield Bonds ETF (JNK)
JNK looks to break the uptrend trailstop line, with a lower high that now has a Dark Cloud Cover as well.
AMBER Flag
TIPS and TLT
Both have broken uptrend trailstops and are downtrending with a recent low. These are well known market leading indicators.
RED Flags
Semiconductor ETF (SOXL)
Noted, and personal favourite, SOXL is clearly bearish from simple candlestick patterns.
RED Flag
So, overall, we have Leads telling us it is BEARISH again.
Heads up!
Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) Short Trade: TP1 DoneThe DJI (15-minute timeframe) chart presents a well-executed short trade setup, delivering substantial initial profits and paving the way for the remaining targets to be achieved.
Key Trade Insights:
Entry Point: Positioned at 44,159.10, as identified by the bearish crossover and resistance from the downward EMA.
Stop Loss: Strategically placed at 44,322.02 to safeguard against upward reversals.
Targets:
TP1: 43,957.73 ✅ Achieved
TP2: 43,631.88
TP3: 43,306.04
TP4: 43,104.67
Technical Breakdown:
Bearish EMA Structure: The red EMA ribbon suggests sustained downward pressure, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
Volume Confirmation: Declining upward retracements signify reduced buying momentum, increasing the likelihood of hitting deeper targets.
Trade Outlook:
With TP1 secured, market momentum and bearish patterns strongly favor hitting TP2 and beyond. Traders using the Risological Indicator are positioned to capitalize further on this move.
Stay vigilant and let the profits roll in!
DOW JONES 4H Golden Cross extending the rally.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us an excellent pre-election buy signal (October 29, see chart below) as it bottomed on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and just below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), in similar fashion as the September 11 Low, which then rallied to the 1.236 Fib extension:
As you can see, we hit our 44000 Target, which was again the 1.236 Fib ext, but a new bullish possibility emerges. The 4H RSI is about to turn bearish (below 45.00) after being overbought (above 70.00) for 7 days. Last time this happened was on August 22, the fractals are virtually identical. During that time, the price made a Higher Low and continued to peak after a +8.30% rise in total.
After another 0.5 Fib correction, the next Bullish Leg if the 3-month Channel Up was also +8.30%, indicating that there is high symmetry between the Legs of this pattern. Notice also the presence of a 4H Golden Cross both on the current as well as on the August Leg.
As a result, since we still have some distance before completing a +8.30% Bullish Leg increase, we go long again as long as the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, targeting 45000.
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DOW JONES Short term signal for fast profit.Dow Jones pulled back from Monday's high but the price action started to reverse today.
As long as the MA50 (4h) holds, we expect a quick rebound (at least) like the ones after the October 16th and September 18th pull backs.
Those rebounds gave rallies of +1.57% and 1.79% respectively.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 44450 (+1.57%).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is also showing a temporary bottom similar to October 16th and September 18th.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES: Short term target 44,850.Dow Jones is almost overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 69.283, MACD = 438.030, ADX = 26.531) and on top of that, the 4H RSI has been inside overbought territory since November 5th. The price action remains inside the Channel Up that started in August but every time the 4H RSI trades sideways like this on overbought ranges, the price enters a smaller Channel Up and leads to the peak HH. That's what we are aiming for now (TP = 44,850).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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4 Winning Years Ahead for Traders Under TrumpOn November 5, 2024, the markets made it loud and clear—they’re excited about Donald J. Trump’s return to office. Stocks, the dollar, and other key assets all responded with strong moves that reflect investor confidence in what his policies might bring. Compare this to the last few years under Biden, and the difference is striking. The market barely budged during Biden’s presidency; even when he contracted COVID-19, it was business as usual. With Trump back, though, there’s an undeniable surge of optimism. Let’s look at what’s happening across the major assets and what it could mean for us traders in the days ahead.
S&P 500 (SPX)
The S&P 500 spiked from $5,704 to $6,018 on election night—a powerful rally that signals investor optimism. It seems the market is embracing Trump’s expected focus on tax cuts and pro-business policies. This kind of jump doesn’t happen without a reason; investors are clearly betting that Trump’s return will be good for corporate America and, by extension, for the economy.
Gold (XAU/USD)
In times of uncertainty, gold usually rallies as investors look for safe havens. But on election night, we saw the opposite: XAU/USD dropped from $2,750 to $2,643 per troy ounce. This decline tells us that investors feel less inclined to hedge their bets with gold, opting instead for assets tied to economic growth. When people pull out of safe havens, it's often a sign they’re feeling pretty good about what’s ahead.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
The dollar had its own rally, with the DXY climbing from 103.3 to 105.4. This spike reflects confidence in the U.S. economy’s potential under Trump’s leadership. With the dollar gaining strength, it’s clear that investors expect strong economic fundamentals and possibly higher interest rates—both of which could keep the dollar in demand.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)
The Dow also rallied, jumping from $41,649 to $44,173. This boost is especially interesting because it reflects optimism in sectors like manufacturing, energy, and infrastructure—industries Trump has supported in the past. Investors are likely betting on policy moves that could provide a lift to U.S. industries, potentially driving corporate profits higher.
WTI Crude Oil (WTI)
Looking forward, I’m expecting WTI prices to come under pressure as Trump likely revisits his focus on domestic oil production. If he revives the “drill, baby, drill” approach, we could see supply levels increase, which would weigh on prices. This potential shift in energy policy is something to keep an eye on, as it could create fresh trading opportunities.
The Big Picture
From stocks to the dollar, the market’s reaction seems to signal that Trump’s return is seen as positive for growth and stability. Reflecting on his previous term, I remember trading seemed almost simpler—beyond economic reports, following Trump’s statements (especially on Twitter) often gave insight into market sentiment. We might be looking at a similar environment now.
Final Thoughts for Traders
Trump’s re-election sets the stage for market dynamics we’ve seen before, with a familiar blend of optimism and volatility. For traders, this could mean more straightforward strategies, particularly by keeping an eye on policy shifts and economic indicators. With Trump’s leadership back in play, I believe the next four years could be some of the best trading years we’ve seen. Whether you’re in stocks, commodities, or forex, it’s clear the market is responding—and as traders, there’s a lot we can take away from that.
Combined US Equities - Put away all technicals for now.Oddly enough, I did not follow one of the great events of 2024. And prior analyses was made on technical indication.
When a reversal like this happens, it is rather extreme, and technicals can be put aside. With the election outcome, markets are suddenly RISK ON and very bullish.
You see this bullishness with a Marubozu type candle that broke through two resistance levels in one day - breaking into and out of the Decision Box marked.
MACD is now skewed to the bullish side although VolDiv has yet to follow. This means price moved a lot before volume.
Previous projection is redundant now.
The only indication was that the day before yesterday, a nice small bullish candlestick was suggesting a breakout to the upside.
Going forward, just enjoy the ride, and make sure you have rules to adhere to!
All the best!
TRUMP is the 47th President! Is this bullish for the markets?Donald Trump is the new (47th) President of the United States, coming into office for his 2nd time. The practical question on the investor's mind is of course how will the stock markets react?
Even though there is no definitive way to approach this, the fact that Trump will resume power for a 2nd term, gives us a historic data set to have grounds for comparison. Fundamentally anything can be discussed on policies and strategies etc but technically the picture is more objective.
As you can see on this Dow Jones (DJI) chart displayed on the 1W time-frame, Trump's 1st Presidential win was on November 08 2016. At that time, the market was trading within a Channel Up that started after a 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) double test on January 19 and February 08 2016. Right before the Elections, the index experienced a natural 'Pre-election volatility' phase.
The picture during the current election period isn't very different from 2016. As you can see, Dow started a Channel Up pattern after a 1W MA200 test and half-way through the year started to experience the usual 'Pre-election volatility' phase. During that time both in 2024 and 2016, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) was supporting and stayed intact. Notice how even the 1W RSI sequences between the two fractals are similar from the time the Channel Up started until the elections.
So naturally you are asking what does that mean for us moving forward? Well after the November 08 2016 elections and Trump's 1st win, Dow started to rise aggressively immediately and by March 2017 it almost reached the patterns top (Higher Highs trend-line) before the new medium-term relief pull-back. The post-election Bull Phase was concluded in January 2018, upon completing a +71% rise from the Channel's bottom and 7.0 Fibonacci extension from the volatility phase.
So if symmetry acts its part, we may see 47000 by March 2025 and 55000 (+71% from the October 2023 bottom) by the end of 2025. Is this projection definitive? Of course not, nothing is 'absolute' in investing/ trading. But history has shown that the stock market has reacted more than positively after the U.S. elections, particularly in the case of a Trump win.
What do you think? Will Trump's 2nd term be bullish?
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DOW JONES: Important 1H breakout that is targeting 43,000Dow Jones has turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.701, MACD = -64.350, ADX = 34.811) as it formed the new bottom on the 3 month Channel Up and that pushed the price into a rally which today crossed over the LH trendline and the 1H MA200 for the first time since October 22nd. The 1H RSI was on a Bullish Divergence (HL) against the LL of the price, so all indicators are bullish and calling for more upside. The 0.786 Fibonacci level is the next short term target (TP = 43,000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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