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DJI

DOW JONES Time to test the December 13 High.Dow Jones (DJI) held the dashed Higher Lows trend-line and rebounded, as we outlined on our last week analysis: That was on the 4H time-frame, now we zoom out to 1D where the index broke again above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but after last weeks 34,390 rejection, it remains within the High Volatility region. As long as the 1D candles close above the (dashed) Higher Lows trend-line, we are expecting not just a re-test of the 34300 August 16 High but also a direct hit on the 34910 December 13 High. The reason is that, as we mentioned last week, the current price action based on RSI terms, looks very similar to that of October 03 - 21. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
ULong
by TradingShot
1
worst months for stock market until febI can feel the super optimism from the NYSE market since friday. yes the powerful volume showed from the market and the last candle and weekly made it would go back to upside from now on. But we need to gear up the pessimistic view again. corporations earning seasons are coming soon, and mostly they will bring the worst momentum and results. last week's Friday job's income report was optimistic, but this can be changed with CPI data on thursday morning. also the FED chairman Powell's speech you need to be aware on tuesday morning. I personally belive that the short term early year bullish effect has finished now.
TVC:DJIShort
by illuminating_trade
22
The QE(xperience)Quantitative Easing, a fancy way of describing a bubble, the easy way out. QE Alpha During QE Alpha, speculation lead to a massive bubble, and a painful burst. Technicals: A Fibonacci Retracement shows that price followed closely it's levels. QE Beta During QE Beta, after stabilizing from the Great Depression, and after the end of WW2, economy rose steadily. US being one of the winners of WW2 and with the Marshall Plan deal, had a big advantage compared to the rest of the world. Technicals: The 1.618 retracement proves a significant resistance from above, which behaved as the ceiling for the Great Stagflation period of 1960s. Price reached an indecision where price couldn't penetrate the 1.618 retracement, but didn't want to fall below the 1929 high. A golden bull-flag was created, which escaped to the upside in 1982. QE 1.0 After severe stagflation, a new era of progressively lower yields led to the creation of the mechanism for QE1. It's fuel ended in 2000, and for a decade, the economy had big trouble going forward. It wasn't until the GFC when the foundation was set for the birth of QE2. Technicals: We have reached the 3rd harmonic and this proves big resistance for price. During this time, a harmonic bull-flag shaped. QE 2.0 The QExperience, which until now was unknown and unnamed, had now a name. And we have lived with it until 2021. Derivatives came about and inflated what is left to inflate. Since day 1 of 2022 we are outside it's trend. Technicals: Retracements drawn using the Great Depression peaks/bottoms constitute significant support/resistance levels. Conclusion: This SPX modificator makes historical analysis of SPX more mathematically accurate and clearer to see/analyze. A new era of increasing yields leads to multiplicative problems in the QE machine. Welcome to the QT era. We are already in it, for the past year, we hope you enjoy your stay! Look at the GFC intervention. The modified SPX chart depends on yields. More about it on this chaotic, full-of-mistakes idea. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
13
Artificial LifeWe live artificially, in a virtual world. We began this experiment when from actual currency we went to fiat. Money printing is not that simple. A debt based economy is fueled not only by money printing but also by money creation. Let's consider this thought experiment: We have three protagonists, Central Bank (CB), Private Bank (PB), and Human (HS) CB decides that she wants to run the economy, and prints $100. She creates the debt as well, so all is good. CB lends that money to PB and demands some profit (Y) which could be the current US10Y. The Private Bank then, to profit off of the loan, lends some money to a human. Let's pretend that the loan the human gets is ($100+Y). On top of that there will be another tariff that will go towards the PB, let's say again Y. From that simplified transaction, the PB makes more profit than the loan, because she lended some funds from their reserves. So the PB will earn from the human 100+Y*(100+Y) and will pay back to the CB 100+Y. Now remember, the only money in existence is the $100 that the CB made. So technically, nobody can fully pay out their obligation. Everyone is in debt and technically everyone is bankrupt from Day 1. To cover the increasing needs of humans for loans, the PB needs more money, and so lends from the CB. The second time around, the PB borrows $100+y So what the CB does is print some more money, every day we pay out our old obligations and we create more. That story you might already know. I added it because I wanted to make some calculations on it. For us to make sense of it all, we try to find out how many obligations were created from thin air. Scenario 1 If everyone is paid off, including the CB, the extra obligations are y^2+2*y. Now let's consider the percentage we gained from all of this. From a single "y" obligation, we created y^2+2*y obligations. Therefore the rate of change is (final value - initial value)/(initial value). Rate of Change = ROC = y+1 And if we plot SPX/ROC = SPX/(US10Y+1) Scenario 2 Everyone is paid off, except the Central Bank. While this might not be 100% feasible, I believe that it ends up describing much clearer today's life. Now the extra obligations (extra money) in circulation are y^2+2*y+1 And the rate of change from the single "y" obligation is: ROC = y+1+1/y And this is the plot we are witnessing now. (SPX/ROC) Conclusion @SPY_Master invented this chart SPX/(1/US10Y), linked below. Which is basically a ROC of 1/y. So the new ROC comes to fulfill the one before it, and give it a more "mathematically accurate" representation. Where does this leave us? This chart stopped on the 4th retracement. RSI is looking something more beyond precarious. It is fearful. This is another chart on how price moved the last 20 years. I will comment later on some more charts. For now, I will let the indicators speak of themselves. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
8
Weapons of Mass Destruction"Derivatives are weapons of mass destruction" - Warren Buffett This chart calculates the gaps we have left behind. All because of massive interday futures trading. A while ago, we didn't have that many derivatives. Interday trading had very little effect. In an overleveraged economy, just how much of current prices are based on actual growth? Indices are hitting new highs, getting inflated from more and more derivative trading and leverage. Just how much of what we see is a bubble? Judging by this chart, we should go back to pre-2015 levels... Trade lightly , for this is hallowed ground. - Wall Street Grigori
DJ:DJI
by akikostas
7
Markets want their equities back.The market is longing equities, they miss them so much... Perhaps there are traders out there who actually long equities right now. And maybe they have their reasons... Yields are showing the first signs of exhaustion. Their chart by itself confirms it. In the main chart above, we see support from the 200EMA (from 2M chart like before) RSI went oversold (penetrated it's ATR channel to the downside) and is now back inside it. This is bullish. This year stochastics were absolutely glued together, it doesn't get any tighter. Now they are ready for an upwards swing. But wait. Not all is good. The "true" SPX chart (SPX*US10Y) is showing it's first signs of weakness. So we have reached the point of "diminishing returns". Any increase in equities is not providing wealth. Like before, RSI, Stochastics and KC don't help. SPX is showing signs of strength for the following months. While I expect a degree of weakness in equities, not all hope is lost. In the meantime, I expect horizontal movement for equities, and some probable growth. Beware, for the cake is still a lie. A couple of extra charts: The chart I added above, the point we missed the trendline was in December 2018. In December of 2018 was the time when Put/Call ratio and VIX took separate ways. And what did equities do after this point in time? PS. With all that conspiracy, I wander why I don't wear a tinfoil hat... yet. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. - Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
1
DOW Headed up to 37 -> 40kQuick post - Daily 50/200 EMA shows a golden cross, W pattern / double-bottom breakout re-tests have succeeded in staying above the upper trend-line. It also continues bouncing off the 50 EMA. We may find some resistance in the area of the red box. TP 1 is ~37.8k, TP is ~40.2k, expecting a pit stop around 35k in the resistance area as it makes its way towards suggested targets. DXY finds new troughs in correlation with DJI finding new peaks. Our recent lows on DJI correspond to DXY's recent peak. DXY has fallen back to the area where it broke out, suggesting a recovery. Should it remain below 102-103, that recovery could be extended. If it gets and stays well above 103 again, this recovery will be short lived. If DXY turns up above 103 and becomes bullish again, we could see a double-top instead of reaching targets above previous ATH.
TVC:DJILong
by dudebruhwhoa
1
US30 20th JANUARY 2023Dow Jones and S&P 500 fell nearly 2% in Wednesday's overnight market, which was the biggest daily drop for both indices in a month. The decline came after weak economic data was released overnight, reigniting fears of a recession. In addition, hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials also further worsened the fundamental mood of investors. Before the wall street stock market opened, US economic data for December showed that retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) data fell more than expected, while production at US factories also fell and total output in November was weaker than expected.
OANDA:US30USD
by DNP-FX
2