Single digit correction is about to start till electionA single digit% correction is going to start from Mon or Tue till the presidential election.
DJI
Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to resistance area 41687. Dear colleagues, I believe that the correction in the wave “2” has already taken place and therefore the impulse wave “3” has started, which according to the rules of wave analysis should reach the resistance area 41687.
This is possible in 2 cases:
1) wave 1 has not been formed yet
2) after wave 2 in wave 3 (then this level will be reached 2 times).
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Rate Cut Incoming. Buckle Up"What the Yield Curve and Fed Moves Mean for Your Next Trade."
Historically, when the Federal Reserve lowers the federal funds rate while the yield spread is negative (also known as an inverted yield curve), it has often been an indicator of an impending market correction or recession.
Let’s break this down:
Historically, the bond market is a key indicator. Typically, long-term bonds offer higher yields than short-term bonds; This a healthy sign. When that flips and short-term yields surpass long-term ones, we get what’s called an inverted yield curve. This inversion signals that investors are getting nervous about the near-term economy. When the Fed then steps in to lower rates, they’re trying to stimulate growth, but it often comes too late.
Looking back at past events:
The dot-com crash of 2000: The yield curve inverted, the Fed cut rates, and a 35% market correction followed.
The 2008 financial crisis: Again, the yield curve inverted, rates were cut, and the market saw a major downturn exceeding 50%.
Going back even further, the same pattern held in the 1970s and 1980s.
The big questions are:
Why does this combination signal trouble?
Will this pattern repeat itself again?
While history tends to repeat itself, the data shows that when the Fed cuts rates with a negative yield spread, market corrections often follow. The inverted curve suggests tighter credit conditions, reduced lending, and lack of confidence, all piling on top of one another creating a recipe for disaster.
Stepping back even further, we see that investor sentiment and the bond market tend to lead the way. Credit tightens, and companies cut back on spending. Another a perfect recipe for an economic slowdown and market drop.
It's a familiar cycle. So lets buckle up.
Rinse and repeat?Price swings and volume look very similar to August 2021 IMO. If it follows a similar trend we will have a few days down to the 50 day EMA or a 2.3% drop but then back to the top for a week or so before a bigger fall (4%) down starting mid to end of Aug. Sometime in Sept we will see a burst back up for election time and then choppy up and down before what could be a 9 month bearish down trend to the 32.8k area until Sept 2025. Good luck
Hellena | DJI (4H): Short to 38.2%-50% Fibo lvl`s 40137.Dear colleagues, after I realized that the price is in the upward impulse of wave “1” I realized that we should look for the beginning of the correction of wave “2”.
At the moment I expect the price to rise a little more to the resistance area of 41379 and then start a corrective movement to the area of 38.2%-50% Fibonacci levels (40137).
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
DOW JONES Nothing has changed. Bull trend intact and eyes 48000.Dow Jones (DJI) is having yet again short-term volatility following the August 30 All Time High (ATH), but as we explained last week this is natural, since the medium-term Channel Up hit its top and was looking for the 1D MA50 for buyers and a Higher Low potentially a little lower.
On the longer term though, the trend is intact and is heavily bullish. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is holding and as long as it supports, there is no evidence showing a correction. In fact, this is the exact same pattern that the index has been following since the 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis.
As you can see on this 1W chart, the market first bottoms on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and starts a recovery phase by breaking above the 1W MA50. After a lengthy consolidation on it with a few tests (to confirm it as Support), it enters a structured Channel Up until the Cycle's peak. The first two Cycles rose by exactly +75% from their bottom to top, while the COVID one peaked at +70%.
As a result, assuming a minimum +70% rise for this Cycle also, we can target at least 48000. It appears that the index is currently past half-way through the Cycle, already within the standard Channel Up.
In addition, you can observe the similarities between the Cycles on the 1W RSI fractals as well, which tend to 'cool down' once this Channel Up starts forming.
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DOW JONES ELLIOTT WAVEDOW JONES ELLIOTT WAVE
Hourly counts of DOW JONES are plotted on the chart.
Not a buy sell recommendation just a view.
pls do ur own research before going for any trade activity.
regards
Russell/SPX Divergence Indicating a Market Cycle TopThe stock market continues to make new highs and is finishing the final touches in this topping process. The problem is the Russell is failing to make new highs. We can see before every stock market crash was accompanied with the SPX/NDX/DJI making new highs while the Russell makes a lower high. This occurred during 2008, 2022, and it could be happening right as we speak. The Russell failing to make new highs suggest that the topping process is underway and we will be getting a powerful stock market crash.
Roaring 20s, Roaring 20s Paralleled 100 Year Event. Roaring 20s, Roaring 20s Paralleled 100 Year Event.
During 1920s - 1930s we experienced a "pandemic event" in both scenarios *odd*.
It created a shock crash followed by a pandemic rebound that the masses called "bubble" this is where valuations broke due to a black swan event.
We use the SMA 2D (200) that shows the larger trend of the market and we see similarities of this "bubble" crash bounce in 1922-1924, oddly similar to 2022-2024 right?.
What's even more dangerous about today is the market in the roaring 20s was held back by the Gold dollar peg, today? we don't even have that. We just have interest rates.
Following the 1924 situation the New York FED cut funding rates to avoid a "unemployment crisis" and it began the fueling of the final stage of a major bubble.
Differences? during the pandemic in the 2020s Governments forced central banks to print trillions and trillions and enforce lock downs to stop the circulation of the currency. Following this they then raised interest rates globally sucking capital back into "bills" "Money Market Funds".
What happens next?, the FRED will cut interest rates aggressively to avoid unemployment spiking trying to front run the future and in return these rates being lowered will rally bonds and release capital and new leverage back onto the market based on the debasement of QE we experienced. Yes the QE during the pandemic barely touched the markets where people were calling 2022 a "bubble".
SPX/USM2 has broken out of a major trend while the FRED aggressively raised interest rates indicating this new "trend" cannot be contained without raising rates higher and its impossible to do so with the Government debt interest.
A new bubble fueled by
"Artificial Intelligence, Bitcoin, Electric Cars, Robotics, Biotechnology"
could be rivalling the
"automobile, radio, and electricity" fuel of the 1920s.
The big question is does it end in a giant crash without a depression? and the answer will ultimately be how well the leveraged is contained in the later stages of the market.
DOW JONES correction to extend until the Fed.Dow Jones (DJI) did what we expected of it 3 weeks ago (August 13, see chart below) and after pricing a Higher Low at the bottom of the 5-month Channel Up, it rebounded and reached the All Time High (ATH), pricing a Higher High:
In continuation of that analysis, we now expect the new Bearish Leg to extend to possibly as low as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which was the case with the May 30 pull-back.
The 1D RSI suggests that a 35.00 value would be ideal to signal a buy (same as May 30, see how both RSI fractals priced the top on the 70.00 overbought limit), while a Bullish Cross on the 1D MACD would be the final confirmation of the buy.
Our long-term Target remains 42400 (+11.00% from the Higher Low, the same % rise as the July 18 High).
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Double-Top In PlayAs expected, SPY double-top looks to be playing out. I don't expect us to drop much lower than the pink ascending trendline. Maybe we'll touch that 200 dma before our full send. Let me remind you that the pink ascending tl is the neckline of a large cup and handle pattern on the bi-weekly, the target of which remains 650-700. This is still in play on the longer timeframe and as long as we don't break below the pink tl with confirmation on the weekly, I will start to buy back at or around the pink tl and down to the 200 dma. Batting 1000% thus far and hoping to keep it perfect.
DJI Collapse Imminent | Caution All AssetsThis is how we hold the finance sector accountable.
Caution in all assets.
The world economy is grinding to a stand-still.
This selloff will be deep and obviously very painful.
There are a ton of hype stories and narratives out there - I have covered and poked fun at many of the ridiculous narratives in previous posts.
We knew this day would come.
INTEL SHORT TRADE : 22% Gain - All Profits Done and Dusted!INTEL SHORT TRADE
Short entry at: 34.74
Stoploss: 35.95
Profit targets:
TP1: 33.24
TP2: 30.81
TP3: 28.39
TP4: 26.89
All targets done - INTEL!
Please follow for more analysis, tips and trade setups.
US30 Daily/4hr/1hrBefore:
Pre Analysis: Looking for price to respect 41,230 to take long position. In this area we've had multiple rejections which formed a beautiful 1hr support. On the 1hr we can see a possible liquidity grab around 41,180 where on a higher timeframe (Weekly + Daily structure) we have respected putting in HL.
After:
41,230 Area respected again putting in bullish momentum.
US30 / DJ30 / DJI Market Money Heist Plan on Bullish SideMy Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Newbies,
This is our master plan to Heist US30 / DJ30 / DJI Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Why the 'record high' on Dow Jones underwhelms...Another day, another record high for a US stock market. Only the one seen on the Dow Jones underwhelms given it is not backed up by its own futures market, let alone its peers. We're also approaching end-of-month flows (which can prompt fickle price action). And keep an eye on the Nvidia earnings report on Wednesday (US) which can single-handedly drive sentiment on Wall Street.
DJI 8/26~30 LONG Forecast
1D Chart / LONG
Technical Grounds
-NV > +250M
-TV Strong buy
-LinReg Pearson <0.95
-Pivots HL still Long-Green
-LinReg > 90 degrees (uptrend)
-Reverse Head & Shoulders Formation
-NV shows a declination trend of negative bars
-Price crossed up SMA100, SMA20 & LinReg Mid Line
-Price crossed up index resistance on past Aug 15th
-Price level far from cyclic ending point of Sep 13th
-POLITICAL FACTOR: Elections coming / +Media Influence
-Fed announcing interest rate cuts (as political influence in elections / investors mindset)
SHIBUSDT / LONG ....
DJI - Key Resistance Zone 4 HourDJI has entered a key resistance zone of the 4 HOUR time frame.
There are 3 likely scenarios. A,B,C on the chart.
We are waiting for a definitive move on the charts, we are looking for a BREAKOUT, either BIG VOLUME breaking the resistance level, or a REJECTION of the resistance level, followed by great volume.
The third move that could be made is ACCUMULATION / RANGING. Where there is little to no volume with no definitive move, we will NOT ENTER if this is the case.
1928 Has Begun Early, Powell Has Given In. QE 3.0
The linchpin was Japan, the Japan interest rate scare has started the panic with the FRED.
1. US Debt spiral is 34.5T.
2. US Debt Interest at 1T and the system has buckled.
3. MMF at all time high
4. Majority still believe a yield curve that has not worked since 2008 will cause a recession.
5. The USA cannot have a recession or it defaults on its debt.
Rates have to be cut and fast, MMF will start pouring into the market, cheap credit will start reinflating all assets. QE 3.0 will be commenced shortly to deal with the US Debt death spiral.
This is the biggest financial crisis around the corner, people will short it who don't understand the USD currency is about to be debased by figures we can't imagine.
This is the end game and it could last years.
Its fun speculating the deflationary crash down, where's the debasement inflationary melt up?
US30 Market breadth EMA200 [IAS]Introducing our Market Breadth Indicator, specifically designed for traders looking to gain a deeper understanding of the overall health of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). This indicator tracks how many of the 30 Dow Jones stocks are trading above their 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), giving you a quick snapshot of market momentum.
Traders typically use market breadth indicators to assess whether the market is broadly strong or weak. When more stocks are trading above their 200-day EMA, it suggests a healthy, bullish environment. Conversely, fewer stocks above this threshold could indicate a weakening market or a potential downturn. Our indicator takes this concept and visualizes it in an easy-to-read histogram, ranging from 0 to 30, where 0 represents no stocks above the 200-day EMA and 30 represents all stocks above this key level.
🔶Usage
Using the Indicator in your trading is straightforward, you can simply implement it by looking for:
1. Bullish Signals: When there are higher number of stocks highlighted in red (e.g., 25-30) trading above their 200-day EMA, it’s a strong signal that the market is in a robust uptrend.
2. Bearish Signals: When the histogram starts declining towards the lower end (e.g., 0-10, where below 6 is highlighted in green). This can be use as a warning sign that the market might be entering a bearish phase.
3. Confirming Trends: The indicator is also useful for confirming trends. For example, if the overall market is rallying but the histogram is showing a decline in stocks above the 200-day EMA, it could be a sign of underlying weakness. This divergence can alert you to potential trend reversals.
This indicator is versatile and can be adapted to various trading styles, whether you’re an intraday trader, or a longer-term investor.
Intraday Trading:
For intraday traders, this tool can be use to find short-term lows or peaks. As the histogram rises above the green zone in the session it may indicate increasing buying pressure, suggesting opportunities for quick long positions from the low. Conversely, if the histogram declines from a red zone, it could be a signal to explore short setups. Using this indicator alongside your usual intraday strategies can help you fine-tune your entries and exits, reducing risk and enhancing your trading precision.
Longer-Term Trading:
For longer-term investors or those looking to position trade on a weekly basis, Market Breadth is an excellent tool to assess the overall health of the market. A histogram consistently near its upper range (e.g., 25-30) over several weeks signals a strong, sustained uptrend, making it a good time to add to positions or initiate new ones. On the other hand, a gradual decline in the histogram over time may indicate that the market is weakening, suggesting a more cautious approach, such as rebalancing your portfolio or exploring defensive strategies. This longer-term perspective can help you stay aligned with the broader market trend, reducing the risk of being caught on the wrong side of a major market move.
By using the indicator across different timeframes, you can better align your trading strategy or even plan your risk management with the underlying market conditions, making more informed decisions whether you’re trading by the minute or planning for the months ahead.
DOW JONES Don't lose sight of the great picture. Still bullish.Last week, while Dow Jones (DJI) was still under its 1D MA50, we called for a major rally, as technically the 5-month Channel Up has just priced its new Higher Low:
The index has now almost reached the Target of the first Bullish Leg of this pattern, pointing to a potential relief next.
On the larger picture however (1M time-frame), we had posted an article named 'Secret Cycles' on April 12 2024 (see chart below), during Dow Jones' previous pull-back that again inflicted fear in the markets, calling for a strong buy:
It is this chart that we revisit and expand up today, as we don't think the long-term trend has changed. We want to maintain a clear long-term perspective and following August's massive recovery 1M candle, we believe that Dow will enter by Q4 2024, the final stage (rally) of its current Cycle.
That has historically been 1 year at least, so as long as the index keeps holding and closing the monthly candles above the 1M MA50 (red trend-line), we will continue buying all monthly dips. Our 48850 long-term Target is intact.
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Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to resistance area 41000.Dear Colleagues, because the big wave “4” (38549) has completed, now I believe that the price is in wave “5”. This means that the price probably has not yet completed the upward movement. I expect a small correction, then a continuation of the upward movement at least to the 40900-41000 area.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
DJI Will Fall! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for DJI.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 40,668.09.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 40,100.63 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
