Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to resistance area 40071.Dear Colleagues, in the last forecast the price almost reached the target 41680, but sharply started to decline. This means that the price is in a complex correction (WXY).
I expect that the price has almost finished the downward movement in wave (Y), and will start an upward movement soon.
The level where the price may come to is 38799, but in general I expect an upward movement at least to the area of 40071.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
DJI
The Rip you Short? or the last Dip to buy?Last week's decline DID NOT BREACH THE APRIL LOWS . To be 100% objective, as long as price is above the April lows, we still retain the ability to make one more high. That is the purple arrow on the above chart. Price will need to breach 5587 in pretty much a straight shot now, as this would be a wave 3. However, that is not my primary analysis.
My primary analysis is the ES Futures market is in the final stages of it's minute circle b-wave. that should complete in the target box on the chart. From there, price should be declining in minute circle c-of Minor A. In the ES that should be in the area of the April lows, or slightly below 5,000.
Best to all,
Chris
DOW JONES New Bullish Leg to beginLast week (August 07, see chart below) we made a long-term case of why Dow Jones (DJI) is poised to technically start a new aggressive rally 'right under our nose' and before that (July 25, see chart below), why at the time the correction wasn't over:
As you can see, the index found support on our low tier near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and as the April 19 Low, it touched the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the 2-year Channel Up (chart 2 above).
Back to today's analysis, the price has already rebounded at the bottom of April's Channel Up and has found its first Resistance on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The final confirmation of this Bullish Leg will be when the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross as it did on June 18 and April 25.
Since the Bearish Legs of this Channel Up have been almost the same percentage wise (-6.84%) we expect the Bullish Legs to be too. With the first Bullish Leg being at +11.13%, our medium-term Target is 42400 (just below a potential +11.13% rise).
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DJI Weekly Rising Narrowing WedgeDow Jones Industrial Average has not shown many signs of slowing in its growth.
Here is a bearish biased shape playing out on the weekly chart in the form of a rising narrowing wedge.
Strictly PA, strictly structure. Keep an eye on this.
Looking for a Macro correction to reach to the .236 or the .382 on a corrective movement.
This is a follow up to a macro long idea on the DJI posted back in March 25th 2023.
NFA
Do your own DD
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Dowjones Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US30 for a buying opportunity around 38900 zone, US30 was trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 38900 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
DOW JONES Is a new rally starting right under our nose again?Consistent with our macro approach to investing (particularly with stocks), we continue to address the recent stock market correction by examining similar behavioural patterns of the past.
It was 10 months ago (October 11 2023, see chart below), when Dow Jones (DJI) was under another short-term turmoil phase that turned out to be exactly that, short-term:
As you can see on that chart, while most were panic selling, we addressed the idea that Dow was "starting a new Bull rally under our nose". And as you can see, the index did exactly that, as it rebounded at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Rising Wedge, starting a new +23% rally.
Our basis for this projection was the similar Rising Wedge pattern of September 2015 - November 2016 (almost 1 year), which after a fake-out for the week hands (green circle) on January 2016 (as it was on October 2022), it rebounded in October 2016 at the bottom of the Wedge and posted a +19% rally.
You can see that so far the lows are highly symmetrical as the first was priced in the month of October (2016 then and 2023 now) and the next in April (2017 and 2024 respectively).
The initial rally that broke above the Rising Wedge in 2017, had a small upward extension that then gave a new pull-back for an August 2017. If symmetry continues to dictate the price action, then the current August Low (2024), may be our new bottom as Aug 2017 was.
On the past fractal, the new rally was concluded on a +30.72% rise. As a result, we see it highly possible to get a new long-term peak early next year (January 2025 if symmetry continues) at around 49000.
High as this Target may seem at the moment with the current economic slowdown fears, these are the standard conditions that make rallies start "under our nose".. Especially as November's U.S. elections are approaching.
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Dowjones Is Approaching The Daily TrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US30 for a buying opportunity around 38400 zone, US30 is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 38400 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Combined US Equities - D-Day +1on 31 July, heads up given about D-day. That was based simply of a few compelling technical factors observed.
Outcome was that there was a blow out rally, followed by an awesome Dark Cloud Cover and then a confirmation bearish candle that gapped down and tanked the week to a low. The spike in volatility was just so awesome and it caught many off guard, unfortunately.
Technical indicators were previously mentioned to be bearish already and now it is very evidently so.
Projecting further using supports and TD Sequential, it is also evident that by breaking below the support that closes the gap too was so critical... it broke the TDST support as well. This means that the TD Sequential trend is now bearish, with an expected one bearish week to go.
So all together... a significant technical breakdown.
Some bounce expected, but week ahead looks bearish.
Projected target marked (red ellipse).
Take care!
Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to resistance area 41680 (Wave 5).Dear Colleagues, I believe that the price is still in an upward movement. At the moment, the higher order wave “4” is finishing forming. Either it has finished forming, or it will renew the minimum in the support area of 40071. After that I expect the continuation of the movement in the wave of higher order “5”. So I expect the price at the level of the maximum of the wave “3” 41680.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
SPX | The Sleeping PilotTraders have made the ultimate mistake, they were caught sleeping on the steering wheel.
And after missing the trend, they attempt to enter it again, only to realize that they have trapped themselves.
A question arises: Were they sleeping or are they performing a suicide attack?
SPX is like a sharp kamikaze plane. Perhaps of Japanese origin, closing in to Perl Harbor.
A wise one should never cut towards them. A knife pointing upwards can only kill bulls.
If they wish prices to go up, they must turn the knife down, to kill any bears that step in their way.
But it seems though the markets are not wise right now.
A successful kamikaze is a fearless kamikaze.
All was well when the soldier was certain of their attack. SPX has been moving in perfect correlation with fearless index, aka VVIX / VIX ratio (orange line).
But now they have second thoughts. And that is their weakness.
SPX is heading upwards with growing fear right now.
VVIX/VIX is the thought, SPX is the action. We are in a jet lag, in no mans land.
The seconds before the pilot moves the joystick back instead of forward.
This is not the first time we are dealing with a soldier who is having second thoughts.
Once in 2018...
...another one in 2020...
...and finally in 2021.
This fight is almost over for the bulls.
Question is: Who will win the war?
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
P.S. Many have made jokes about the POTUS as being sleepy.
Never call someone something you don't want to be called yourself.
DJI Is Bullish! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for DJI.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 39,843.73.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 40,793.56.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Dow Jones, interpretation of where we areDespite the fact that i calculated the dates, this is just my calculation and correction could easily end in 2033rd, but for now we are monitoring the index and in the future it will be clearer to us where we are, and idea can be updated.
According to my interpretation, the bull market ended in 2021 and now we are in a rising sideways leg, which should end at the beginning or end of summer 2024.
I have two prefered calculation's of target for rising sideway's leg(wave, local rally):
1)39150$ +-500$
2)39950$
Then we go to 1st area(white lines) and bear market within flat should last about 1 year.
Next rally(leg) in the context of the expected flat correction should end around 36000$ in Spring of 2027.
And i hope that all the correction will be finished in March of 2028(Prefered, because it should be fast destroy like tsunami) or December 2029, at the 2nd area(red lines), so we won't be too old by then.)
US30The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (US30) on a 1-day timeframe.
Key Elements in the Chart:
1. Entry Zone (40,070 - 39,880):
The recommended entry range for a long position is between 40,070 and 39,880.
2. Target Levels:
Target 1: 40,636.77
Target 2: 41,295.33
Target 3: 42,750.00
3. Stop Loss:
The stop loss level is set at 39,825.
4. Support and Resistance:
Support Zone: Marked in green below the entry range.
Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: 40,636.77
Second Resistance: 41,295.33
Final Cycle Target: 42,750.00
5. Current Price:
The current price at the time of the chart is 40,604.42, which is below the first resistance level but above the entry zone.
Analysis:
1. Entry Strategy:
The recommended entry zone for a long position is between 40,070 and 39,880. Entering within this range allows you to capitalize on a potential upward movement towards the target levels.
2. Target Levels:
The first target level of 40,636.77 is relatively close to the current price, suggesting a short-term target.
The second target of 41,295.33 and the final cycle target of 42,750.00 indicate higher resistance levels and potential profit points for medium to long-term trades.
3. Stop Loss:
A stop loss at 39,825 ensures a predefined risk, protecting the trader from significant downside moves if the market goes against the position.
4. Support and Resistance Analysis:
The support zone indicates a strong buying interest, which can serve as a cushion against falling prices.
Breaking above the resistance levels will be crucial for the continuation of the upward trend.
Trading Plan:
1. Enter Long Position: Within the entry zone (40,070 - 39,880).
2. Set Stop Loss: At 39,825 to manage risk.
3. Monitor Resistance Levels: Watch for price action around 40,636.77 and 41,295.33.
4. Take Profit:
Partial profit at the first target (40,636.77).
Further profit at the second target (41,295.33).
Final profit around the final cycle target (42,750.00).
Dow Jones surges to record highs on Fed easing expectationsThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ascended to record highs on July 16th, 2024, fueled by mounting expectations of a Federal Reserve policy shift towards a more accommodative stance.
Fundamental Drivers:
Federal Reserve Policy: The CME FedWatch Tool currently suggests a near-certain likelihood of at least a 25-basis point interest rate cut by September, with the upcoming July FOMC meeting potentially maintaining current rates. This anticipated monetary easing is bolstering investor confidence, particularly in sectors sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, such as industrials and small-caps.
Economic Data: Recent economic data releases, including stable retail sales figures, point towards a potential "soft landing" for the U.S. economy. This reinforces optimism and supports the ongoing market rally.
Sector Rotation: Investors appear to be strategically shifting away from large-cap technology stocks, which have thrived in a low-interest-rate environment, and allocating capital towards sectors anticipated to outperform under rising interest rates.
Confirmation: The significant rise in UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) on July 16th (up 6.11%) exemplifies the strength in non-technology sectors.
Looking Forward: The Dow Jones' momentum remains robust, and further upward potential exists if upcoming economic data continues to align with the Fed's potential easing narrative. Investors will be keenly focused on forthcoming economic releases and the July FOMC meeting for any insights regarding the timing and magnitude of potential rate cuts.
SPX & NDX to SHORT TVC:DJI NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:IWM NASDAQ:NDX SP:SPX
Rising wedge pattern forming in S&P 500.....big banks price target forecast for fiscal year 2024 were $4800-$5600 ....eventually hitting all PT mid 2024......S&P500 fell last week and DJI rose last week with 4% percentage difference which means investors or big money booking profits from tech and large weighted stocks in S&P 500 and investing in small caps and value stocks because of low inflation and hoping rate cuts soon.
NASDAQ100 just witnessed bearish engulfing candle on thursday 11th july 2024....engulfing previous 4 days candles.
Read:https://www.tradingview.com/news/benzinga:1590409c1094b:0-ai-super-bulls-pay-attention-to-the-biggest-divergence-since-2001-tsla-call-buyers-crushed/
Hellena | DJI (4H): Short to 50% Fibo lvl 39,059.Dear Colleagues, in general I see that the price will still rush upwards, because now the wave "3" of higher order is developing.
But I believe that now there will be a correction to the area of 50% Fibonacci level (39,059) in wave "2".
But before this correction, I believe that the price will complete a 5-wave movement in lower waves.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
DOW JONES All patterns pointing to a bullish break-out.We have seen today's pattern on one of our previous analyses (June 14, see chart below) but on the 1W time-frame:
Today we make some slight modifications as we view it on the short-term 1D time-frame. Dow Jones (DJI) continues to replicate the sequence of February 14 2023 - May 30 2023 and following the latest 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross, is ready to break above the (bold dashed) Ascending Triangle.
As you can see there is so far high symmetry between the two patterns. The 2023 one made a Higher High following the Triangle break-out on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension from the bottom. It had two identical Bullish Legs since that Low.
As a result, we are targeting at least 41000 on the medium-term, which is tightly located within the 1.382 Fib and a symmetrical +7.50% Bullish Leg.
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