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GLOBAL ECONOMY - FORECAST Hello there dear traders, this is a quick update on DJI. I just noticed a bullish divergence on the daily RSI (Relative strength of the market) which could lead a bounce back towards all-time high, which we just hit a few weeks ago. Since Corona caused problems to the markets (more likely a bloodbath), people are panicking and overselling their holdings. The most absurd stuff was the shrinking of Anheuser-Busch stock, which is the owner of Corona-Beer, a beer and beverage company, which notes massives losses due to the situation decreasing sales... Anyway, in my opinion markets are oversold right now and there is a chance we might see a bounce back up to <<<28600!>>> RSI looking good and news are still bearish- for me time to fill my bags! If you are interested in what I buy, make sure to ask in the comment section for a specific stock or index, I will tell you my opinion/create a chart for that! If it works out and we come close to the previous all-time high, we will possibly retest this low as of today and at that point we will compare to RSI again and decide what to do! <<<<23100>>>> Note: If we make lower lows and the strength of the DJI lowers as well, trades are canceled!
TVC:DJILong
by GER-Quality-Trades
US30's Bearish Outlook Amid FOMC AftermathAfter the conclusion of yesterday's FOMC meeting, the US30 index initially experienced a bullish surge, only to retrace back to its pre-announcement levels shortly thereafter. Within this movement, a notable observation was the emergence of a Fibonacci Volume Gap (FVG) area, particularly evident around the 50% retracement level of the preceding bullish impulse. This phenomenon suggests a potential reversal point, indicating that the price might pivot towards a new bearish impulse. As we anticipate a potential continuation of bearish momentum, our analysis incorporates various factors, including structural patterns and key technical indicators. While indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) offer additional confirmation, our primary emphasis remains on comprehensive price action analysis to guide our trading decisions.
BLACKBULL:US30Short
by FOREXN1
1
✅ Daily Market Analysis - 02 MAY 2024Economic events: USA - Initial Jobless Claims Eurozone - HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Apr) Eurozone - ECB's Lane Speaks U.S. equity markets saw a partial recovery subsequent to the Federal Reserve's choice to maintain interest rates at their current levels on Wednesday. Additionally, the Fed disclosed intentions to commence a gradual tapering of its balance sheet reduction initiative, commonly referred to as quantitative tightening, beginning in the coming month. As a result, the S&P 500 index made a modest gain of 0.1%, while the NASDAQ Composite index advanced by 0.2%. Furthermore, the Dow Jones Industrial Average exhibited notable strength, surging by 179 points, equivalent to a 0.50% increase. NDX, SPX, and DJI indices daily chart The Federal Reserve opted to maintain its key interest rates within the 5.25% to 5.5% range, signaling a potential prolongation of elevated rates owing to the slower-than-expected progress in addressing inflationary pressures. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) highlighted insufficient headway toward achieving the targeted 2 percent inflation rate in recent months. Nevertheless, the FOMC announced plans to initiate a reduction in its holdings of Treasury securities, commencing in June with a reduction of approximately $25 billion per month from the current pace of $60 billion. This decision follows recent labor market data indicating a slight imbalance, with job openings reaching a three-month low in March. Despite this, April saw private sector job gains exceeding economists' projections. Market focus now shifts to the imminent release of the nonfarm payrolls report scheduled for Friday, with expectations of a robust addition of 243,000 jobs to the U.S. economy in April. In currency markets, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward trajectory on Thursday, propelled by prevailing market optimism favoring risk-sensitive currencies like the Euro. This upbeat sentiment may be attributed in part to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish commentary on Wednesday. However, the Eurozone faces challenges due to a comparatively more dovish stance from the European Central Bank compared to the Federal Reserve. Recent inflation data from the Eurozone showed stability in April, aligning with expectations. EUR/USD daily chart Moreover, core inflation witnessed a decline, fueling speculation regarding a potential interest rate reduction by the European Central Bank (ECB) in June. Thursday also marks the release of the final HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index data, with market expectations aligning with preliminary figures. This index serves as a leading indicator, offering insights into business activity within the Eurozone manufacturing sector. In contrast, the Japanese Yen faced notable selling pressure during the Asian session on Thursday, retracting from its over two-week high against the US Dollar observed the preceding day. Initial reactions to rumors of Japanese authorities intervening once again, marking the second intervention this week to support the domestic currency, quickly waned amid expectations of a sustained wide US-Japan rate differential. Furthermore, a generally positive risk sentiment surrounding US equity markets serves as a significant factor undermining the safe-haven appeal of the JPY. USD/JPY daily chart In the early Asian trading hours, the USD/CAD pair persists in its downward trajectory around 1.3730. Late on Wednesday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem reaffirmed the central bank's confidence in an ongoing reduction in inflation. Macklem indicated that the BoC is nearing the point of deliberating rate cuts, underscoring that the central bank is not bound to mimic the Federal Reserve's strategies. He emphasized that higher rates in Canada are demonstrating greater efficacy compared to the United States. USD/CAD daily chart Amid mounting speculation among traders, there is growing anticipation that the Bank of Canada may opt for interest rate cuts in June, prompted by Canada's economic deceleration in the initial quarter of this year. Notably, Canada's GDP exhibited a subdued expansion of 0.2% month-on-month in February, a slowdown from the preceding 0.5% figure and below the market's projected 0.3% growth. Additionally, according to S&P Global on Wednesday, the Canadian Manufacturing PMI descended to 49.4 in April and 49.8 in March, falling short of the market consensus of 50.2. Despite lackluster figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, including weaker-than-expected Trade Balance and Building Permits data, the Australian Dollar persists in its strengthening trend on Thursday. The AUD/USD pair garners support from the prevailing positive market sentiment, buoyed by dovish remarks issued by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday. AUD/USD daily chart The ascent of the Australian Dollar finds its roots in the hawkish stance adopted by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), anticipated to uphold elevated interest rates throughout 2024. Additionally, last week's domestic inflation figures surpassing expectations have fueled speculation that the RBA could defer any potential interest rate cuts. Traders are eagerly awaiting the release of several key economic indicators from the United States on Thursday, including weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity, and Factory Orders. These data releases are poised to provide additional clarity regarding the present condition of the US economy.
by FOREXN1
1
✅ Daily Market Analysis - 01 MAY 2024Economic events: USA - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr) USA - S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Apr) USA - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr) USA - ISM Manufacturing Prices (Apr) USA - JOLTs Job Openings (Mar) USA - Crude Oil Inventories USA - FOMC Statement USA - Fed Interest Rate Decision USA - FOMC Press Conference On Tuesday, the S&P 500 underwent a decline, terminating its five-month streak of consecutive gains. This downturn was propelled by apprehensions surrounding inflation, ignited by data highlighting wage pressure. Concurrently, this development aligns with the commencement of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average witnessed a decline of 570 points, equating to a 1.1% decrease, while the S&P 500 experienced a 1.5% drop, and the NASDAQ Composite saw a 2% downturn. Particularly noteworthy is the S&P 500's recording of a 3% loss for the month. NDX, SPX, and DJI indices daily chart The escalation in US labor costs throughout the first quarter exceeded expectations, primarily propelled by rising wages and benefits. This development has revived apprehensions regarding inflation, particularly amid a diminishing investor confidence in potential Federal Reserve rate reductions. As per the Employment Cost Index, labor expenses surged by 1.2% in the preceding quarter, following an unrevised 0.9% uptick in the quarter prior. On a year-over-year basis, labor costs climbed by 4.2%. This report emerges following recent data indicating a buildup of price pressures in the initial quarter, amplifying concerns surrounding inflation. The downtrend of EUR/USD persists for the second consecutive day, with the pair hovering around the 1.0650 level during Asian trading hours on Wednesday. Amid European market closures in observance of Labour Day, market participants eagerly anticipate the Federal Reserve's forthcoming policy decision. EUR/USD daily chart Despite the release of robust Eurozone data on Tuesday, the Euro encountered challenges in sustaining its upward trajectory. Notably, Eurozone GDP surpassed expectations, expanding by 0.3% in the first quarter. Moreover, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) exhibited stable year-over-year growth, meeting anticipated levels. However, the core HICP, excluding food and energy prices, exhibited a softening trend, albeit still surpassing estimates. Investor sentiment remains optimistic regarding the possibility of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank in June, as a majority of ECB policymakers have signaled their endorsement for such measures. On Tuesday, the Japanese Yen incurred notable losses against its American counterpart, reversing a significant portion of the gains witnessed the previous day, driven by the potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The primary contributor to the JPY's weakness is the substantial interest rate differential between Japan and the United States, a trend expected to persist in the foreseeable future. This, combined with heightened demand for the US Dollar, propelled the USD/JPY pair higher during intraday trading. USD/JPY daily chart Following the publication of the AiG Industry Index on Wednesday, indicating a continued contraction in Australia's private business activity for March, the Australian Dollar remains subdued. Despite this, market sentiment suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia will maintain its current interest rates of 4.35% in the upcoming meeting scheduled for next week. The Australian Dollar faced additional downward pressure following the release of disappointing Aussie Retail Sales data on Tuesday, raising speculation about its potential impact on the RBA's interest rate stance. However, optimism stemming from higher-than-anticipated domestic inflation figures from the previous week has led to speculation that the central bank might delay any decisions regarding interest rate cuts. AUD/USD daily chart During the early Asian session on Wednesday, the NZD/USD pair faces selling pressure around the 0.5880 level. The New Zealand Dollar depreciates in response to worse-than-expected employment data from New Zealand. NZD/USD daily chart In the first quarter of this year, New Zealand faced a notable increase in its unemployment rate amidst a prolonged recession compounded by high-interest rate conditions. According to Statistics New Zealand's report on Wednesday, the nation's Unemployment Rate rose to 4.3% in Q1 from 4.0% in Q4, surpassing market expectations of 4.2%. Simultaneously, Employment Change figures recorded a decrease of 0.2% in Q1, contrasting with the previous reading's 0.4% rise and falling short of the projected 0.3% increase. The upsurge in the unemployment rate may prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to uphold its elevated rate for an extended duration to counter inflationary pressures. Market sentiment suggests that the RBNZ is inclined to maintain a restrictive Official Cash Rate, with any potential for rate cuts unlikely until 2025. As the Federal Reserve initiates its two-day policy-setting meeting, market consensus leans towards the central bank maintaining its benchmark interest rate within the current range of 5.25%-5.50%, a level sustained since July. Investors are particularly attentive to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's subsequent remarks following the monetary policy statement. These remarks are expected to carry substantial significance, with investors keen to glean insights into Powell's alignment with the market's less dovish perspective on the rate outlook.
by FOREXN1
1
Dow Jones - Textbook trading setup!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at the Dow Jones. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: There is one major long term pattern which we have been looking at for a very long time - a rising channel formation. Just a couple of months ago the Dow Jones retested the lower support trendline and created a beautiful triangle breakout while rejecting towards the upside. If we now get a retest of the breakout level which is then acting as support, a major continuation higher is quite likely. -------- Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
DJ:DJI
by basictradingtv
7
DOW JONES Test of 4H MA200 imminent to decide the trend.Dow Jones (DJI) gave a solid short-term sell signal on the MACD Bearish Cross last time we analyzed it on the 4H time-frame (April 24, see chart below): Similarly, it is flashing a strong buy signal now after the 0.236 Fibonacci rebound that keeps the price action above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), in similar fashion as September 14 2023. The 4H MACD even completed a Bullish Cross and the next sequence on that fractal is a 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) test. Our target is 38750. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
DOW JONES Attention! These are currently the key levels to know!Following a successful sell signal at the top of the long-term Channel Up (March 28, see chart below), Dow Jones (DJI) is staging its first attempt to resume the bullish trend: Observing past behavior in similar circumstances often helps at making such projections, so we placed Dow's previous correction in August 2023 (right chart) next to today's. The key levels when the index made a similar attempt to regain the long-term bullish trend as the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 0.618 Fibonacci. As you can see on August 31 it marginally broke above both but failed to close a single 4H candle above them and was subsequently rejected back to the 0.236 Fib. A 4H MACD Bearish Cross took place exactly on that candle's rejection. As a result, we will only buy the break-out if Dow closes a 4H candle above the current 0.618 Fib (38950) in which case we will target the 40000 High. Until then we will sell even the slightest 4H MA200 rejection and target 37900 (Fib 0.236). We can already see a 4H MACD Bearish Cross emerging. The risk either way is low. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingShot
DOW JONES: Pattern worked like beauty. Technical rebound.Dow quickly turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.651, MACD = -238.11, ADX = 37.915) not staying for long on its previous bearish state as after hitting our TP = 37,300 it rebounded emphatically and is about to test the 1D MA50. The pattern was the same as the prior corrections inside the Channel Up: pullback to the 0.382 and -6.95% in particular like on December 20th 2022. Now the price should at least retrace to the 0.786 Fib on this bounce. Long TP = 39,350. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by InvestingScope
Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to the resistance area of 38458.Dear colleagues, I believe that wave "4" is not yet completed. To complete it, it is necessary to complete the double zig-zag. I expect that the movement "c" will end in the area of 37350, then I expect growth and the beginning of wave "5" with the goal to reach at least the resistance area of 38458. Be careful, perhaps wave "c" will be a bit shorter and it will mean that the upward movement will start earlier. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
TVC:DJILong
by Hellena_Trade
Liquidity Crisis may happen, Market TOPPED OUTLiquidity Crisis may happen most of hedgefund did buying treasury bond and then treasury bond margin loan , so they made almost 50x leverage on bond market times over and over now only t-bill s gonna be recognized as collateral so t-bill market happend this method But NFP is too strong, FED didn't do Rate Cut now So t-bill is bubbled now, we are gonna kill it and stock market just knew there's plenty of liquidity until today Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked. So market topped out
TVC:NDQShort
by newjeansoldjean
5
DOW JONES Sell target hit. When will it reverse?Dow Jones (DJI) hit the 38050 Target that we set on our last bearish call (March 28, see chart below) and broke below Support 1 (February 13 Low) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line): The price now faces more selling pressure being below two MA periods and with the long-term Channel Up (started on the October 13 2022 bottom), having considerable downside to give. As we mentioned on our March idea above, the most effective buy entry within this long-term pattern is when the 1D CCI makes the first Higher Low after having broken below the -100.00 oversold barrier. That is what happened on March 13 2023 and September 22 2023 (even though that sequence had one more Low to give). The most fascinating characteristic of both those corrective Legs was that they both declined by -9.25%. If Dow repeats this decline, we are looking at 36285, which is just above Support 2 but currently exactly where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is. The latter is our main point of focus and assuming the index will give a dead-cat-bounce now towards th 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we project that it may hit the 1D MA200 around 36900. If that coincides with a 1D CCI Higher Low, it will be in our opinion the most optimal buy entry for the next long-term Bullish Leg, targeting 41000. Note that the dead-cat-bounces on both previous Bearish Legs, never closed a 1D candle above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, so that is the parameter that will keep the current correction valid. If we do get a 1D candle close above the 0.618 Fib, it will technically be a pattern invalidation and trend reversal upwards so we will buy the bullish break-out and Target 41000 regardless. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingShot
Dow Jones: Analyzing Market Sentiment Amidst Powell's RemarksThe Dow Jones Industrial Average, a bellwether index reflecting market sentiment and economic outlook, experienced a notable shift in dynamics following remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. After a previous push-down impulse triggered by Powell's speech yesterday, the index exhibited a remarkable recovery during the Asian session, opening the new session with bullish sentiment. Powell's indication of a "higher for longer" stance swiftly reversed the previous bearish sentiment, highlighting the market's sensitivity to central bank communications. However, amidst the bullish momentum, the market faces a balancing act as hawkish remarks from Powell and lingering geopolitical risks offset positive developments such as robust quarterly earnings from UnitedHealth and Morgan Stanley. The juxtaposition of these factors underscores the intricacies of market dynamics, where sentiment can quickly pivot in response to changing narratives. From a technical perspective, the Dow Jones remains in a bearish retracement phase. However, an intriguing observation emerges on the H4 timeframe, where divergence in price signals a potential shift in momentum. This divergence, coupled with the bullish sentiment observed during the Asian session, suggests that the index may be poised for growth in the near term. In light of these developments, our strategy revolves around a scalping setup with a focus on short-term gains. We advocate for a close take profit approach, capitalizing on the current momentum while remaining cognizant of potential market fluctuations. Furthermore, we envision a longer setup, aligning with historical data indicating a statistical bias towards long positions during this part of the year, particularly in April.
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by FOREXN1
1
DOW JONES: Close to our Target. Is it a buy after?Dow Jones is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 31.431, MACD = -279.330, ADX = 39.462) and is approaching our TP = 37,300 that we called nearly one month ago. The target will be a direct hit at the middle of the long term Channel Up and approach the 0.382 Fibonacci. As long as the 1D MA200 supports, we will then reverse to buying, at least on the short term, expecting a rebound to the 0.786 Fib (TP = 39,350) like on January 16th 2023. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by InvestingScope
DOW JONES Secret Cycles you didn't know existed!On this analysis we examine the Dow Jones index (DJI) from the longer term perspective of the 1M time-frame. A lot of market participants has started to get nervous because of this month's pull-back and this is the best way to keep a calm mindset and view the price action objectively. In order to see if the market has a legitimate reason to panic or not, the answer can be given by observing the index from a cyclical point of view. To begin with, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the absolute multi-year Support level (since October 2010 only two candle closings below it, March 2020 COVID flash crash and recently the September 2022 inflation bottom). The market deems every pull-back towards it, a buy opportunity with the lowest possible risk. Since the bottom of the 2008-2009 Housing Crisis, the 1M RSI bottoms on Lower Lows help us classify the multi-month phases into Cycles. The duration of each Cycle since the 1st, has been pretty consistent (39 to 48 months so far). When the index closes a 1M candle below the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), the correction towards the 1M MA50 is usually under way. Also there is a striking consistency on the growth of each Cycle. As you can see, with the exception of the first (naturally the most aggressive since it was the start of the recovery after a Bear Cycle), every Cycle sees gains within the range of +70% and +77%. As a result assuming the new Cycle follows a similar pattern, we can expect a minimum Target of 48850 (+70% from Low) and a Cycle ending on December 2025 (39 months from previous Low). Technically the index should peak around the the start of 2025, entering a volatile period towards the end of the year. This is as close to a projection one can make on such a long-term horizon and with tons of fundamental risks involved. Where do you think Dow Jones will top at? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
2
Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to the resistance area of 39419. Dear colleagues, the price has passed many points in the downward movement and at the moment I suppose that the price is completing the corrective wave "4" and very soon will start the upward movement in the wave "5". It is possible to update the low in the area of 38458 and then move to the resistance area of 39419. It is possible that the price will immediately start an upward movement, so I consider only long positions and will look for the best entries to this position. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
TVC:DJILong
by Hellena_Trade
DOW JONES below the 1D MA50 after 5 months!Dow Jones (DJI) gave us an excellent sell entry following our last analysis (March 28, see chart below) as it got rejected and made a bearish reversal exactly where we expected it to: Last Thursday it even broke below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time in exactly 5 whole months (since November 03 2023)! This is a bearish break-out confirmation signal and we expect a new sell-off soon. As you can see the former (dotted) Channel Down broke downwards and has given way to a (blue) Channel Down. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has now been turned into Resistance with one confirmed rejection already (April 04). The Channel Down has fairly symmetrical Bearish Legs so far, -2.36% and -2.20%. Assuming the new will be at a -2.20% minimum, we are expecting a Lower Low at 38200. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by TradingShot