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Dow ready to go above 200 MA?The Dow has been coiling for the past few days underneath its 200-day moving average, as it watched the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 break higher. But yesterday support at 41,780 held and this led to a strong bounce. The resulting price action created a hammer candle on the daily time frame. With this latest bull signal, can the index now break above its 200 MA and move higher? The underlying trend is looking increasingly bullish. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:US30
by FOREXcom
DOW JONES Are you willing to bet against a 15 year pattern?Dow Jones (DJI) will close the month today with a massive rebound 1M candle after almost touching its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). Since the October 2010 break above the 1M MA50, after the market recovered from the 2008 Housing Crisis, the 1M MA50 has been the ultimate long-term Buy Entry as it has always signaled rallies that ranged from +58% to +67%. The 1M MA50 has also kept the index mostly within the 0.382 - 0.786 Fibonacci range (blue zone) of the multi-year Channel Up. Given also that the 1W RSI also reached in April its ultimate Buy Zone (green), we view this as the best long-term Buy Signal the index handed to us since the September 2022 bottom of the Inflation Crisis. Since the Bullish Legs that followed have been fairly consistent on average, we expect another 58% rise minimum. Assuming a 'bad-case' scenario of being contained within the 0.786 Fib, then a 56000 long-term Target seems more than fair. Are you willing to go against this pattern? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
DJIA H4 | Pullback resistance at 78.6% Fibonacci retracementThe DJIA (US30) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 41,305.11 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 42,743.85 which is a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 39,324.35 which is an overlap support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:US30Short
by Tradu
DJIA Tests Major Resistance – Reversal or Breakout Next?The Dow Jones Industrial Average is pressing against a key resistance zone near 40,860, the neckline of a double-bottom pattern after rebounding sharply from its mid-April low: 📈 Strong 2-week rally from sub-37K lows 🔵 Price attempting to break the neckline after reclaiming the 50-day SMA 📊 RSI near neutral at 51 – plenty of room to run 📉 MACD accelerating upward, hinting at bullish momentum If price clears and holds above 40,860, bulls could target a move back toward 42,500–43,000. Failure to break this zone may trigger a pullback toward the 50-day SMA near 41,500. The setup is constructive — but the bulls need confirmation. -MW
FOREXCOM:US30
by FOREXcom
MACD says a little higher for a little longerAs per the individual stocks I cover that have not yet reached their ideal retracement areas I am looking for the SPX to get higher into my target box. In any event it's reasonable for me to say we're in a B wave and therefore our pattern can develop into something more complex. Nonetheless, I am mainly looking for MACD to reach the zero line at the very minimum. The take-a-way from this update is I am looking slightly higher in the markets for slightly longer...before our minor C wave takes hold of the market. Best to all. Chris
CBOE:SPX
by maikisch
Was this the best buying opportunity since 2011?Sure, here's a rewritten version of your text in an engaging tone: "Have you ever heard of the Zweig Breadth Thrust? Well, let me tell you, it’s an incredible metric that can really shed some light on the current market situation! So, what would it take for me to believe that this bounce isn't just another bear market rally? My first step would be to dive into the breadth indicators and look for signs of that elusive breadth thrust. Think of a breadth thrust like a rocket taking off. You need a strong initial boost to break free of gravity's grip. If the thrust is weak, the rocket can’t escape, and the same applies to stock market reversals. When we see a robust breadth thrust, that's a signal that a significant reversal is underway. Without it, we could be facing another false bounce. Now, let’s talk numbers! As of Friday, April 25th, the SPX has surged an impressive 14.2% from its recent lows, and while that’s quite a leap, it’s essential to keep it in perspective. Just think back—this index was down 21.35% from its all-time high earlier in February during the panic sell-off. Now, with the recent strength, it’s only 10.75% off its peak. The Zweig Breadth Thrust is calculated based on the 10-day EMA of NYSE Advances divided by the sum of Advances and Declines. A bullish signal pops up when the ZBT shifts from below 0.40 to above 0.615 within just ten days or less. Keep an eye on that—it might just help us navigate these choppy waters!" On the monthly chart, it’s clear that what we’ve been seeing in the broader economy (you know, Main Street) is actually showing us some bearish divergence—a concept I've mentioned in my previous ideas. Since 2009, we've had four notable instances on the Monthly chart where the ZBT dipped below 0.40, only to bounce back up past the 0.6 mark. Remember back in November 2011? That was when we got a significant signal with a low reading of 0.31, which climbed back to 0.62 by February 2013. That surge sparked a bull run that peaked in February 2020! So, the takeaway here is that this breadth thrust is generating the positive momentum we need to reach new stock market highs this year. Exciting times ahead!
SP:SPXLong
by BallaJi
Global Supply Chains being Undone could be the cause of a (IV)I have been discussing the potential for a Super-Cycle wave (III) top in the US markets for the last couple years. To experience a wave (IV) of SUPERCYCLE PREPORTION, would be a consolidation of price action back to the 1929 stock market crash. The byproduct of this type of price action would be a decline of 50% or more (likely more) in the value of global stock markets. This type of asset price deflation would make anyone who watches the markets be inquisitive as to what would or even COULD cause such an event. Would the dismantling of global supply chains, that have been in place since the early 1990’s, be the culprit? I am starting to think the answer to that question is yes. This is not an indictment of the policy, but more an acknowledgement of the disruption and the possible aftermath. The obvious concern is how do businesses plan? I would venture a guess business leaders will be challenged, and many may not survive. The cost equation becomes so skewed…how does one make money without passing the costs on to the consumer? That means higher inflation. If this is the case, it’s possible digital assets become more of a safe haven which would be counter intuitive to hard asset value. This would mean that we will have endure a cycle of higher inflation, higher interest rates, and higher unemployment, coupled with lower economic growth. I cannot say this is how the forecasted price action is justified in the future. What I can say is the resulting price action will look very similar to the below.
CBOE:SPX
by maikisch
Update to Dow Jones Industrials Time At Mode Back in 2015 I had published a chart with annual data for the Dow Jones Industrials. I will provide a link at the bottom. The research for this patterning is something I did myself by hand using pencil and paper back in the 1980's. These patterns show up in all time frames. There is plenty of room to enhance the research on this technique and a group of us gather in the chat rooms here at TradingView to discuss new trades that set up and point out when trades expire. Notice how these two grey boxes (which are both 50% drops in price) that expand wider in time from the 1960's to the 1980's and the 2000-2010's had a multi-year trend, followed by a monster crash (1987 was 40% and 2000 was 37%) and then just two+ years later there was a secondary bear market of 20% in 1990 and 22% in 2022. Keep in mind this is just for the DJ:DJI and not the Nasdaq Composite or S&P500 which were greater corrections. The 11-year time frame of the 1999-2011 pattern allows for an 11-year rally from 2012 (which was year 1 of the 11-year rally) shows that time expired. As you can see from the 1943-1962 trend, a smaller 5-year mode formed at the end of the 20 year trend and then the market peaked in 1972-1973 when time expired for the second, smaller mode. I had to reconstruct this chart after the data for the previous chart changed symbol. See the link below to see the original. I look forward to your additional research onto this pattern and its implications to the idea that we are in a similar period to 1993-1994 with rally years of 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2000 ahead of us. All the best, Tim October 19, 2024 3:31PM EST
TVC:DJI
by timwest
14
DOW JONES: Just triggered the most historic buy signal (1M MA50)Despite the bearishness on the lower timeframes, Dow is neutral on the ultimate long term chart, the 1M (RSI = 51.044, MACD = 1991.530, ADX = 44.038) and that is due to the fact it almost touched its 1M MA50. This neutral technical setting is a great reset for the Channel Up and stands as the most ideal long term buy entry and was tested before on all 4 major market bottoms (September 2022, March 2020, January 2016, October 2011). In all incidents it set in motion the new Bull Cycle, technically the bullish wave of the Channel Up. The most common price increase is +70% and along those lines, we anticipate Dow to hit 60,000 by the end of 2027. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DJILong
by InvestingScope
2
DOW 104% TARIFFS on China activated. Can the market be saved?Dow Jones (DJIA) is almost on its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and earlier today President Trump activated 104% duties on Chinese imports. This is far from being an encouraging development especially after Monday's attempt for the market to recover. Most of the gains were lost yesterday and today it is a wait-and-see game in anticipation of the market reaction on the opening bell of Wall Street. From a long-term technical perspective however, Dow is on a huge buy level that we've only seen another 4 times since the Housing Bubble bottom in March 2009. That buy level consists of two conditions: price touching the 1W MA200 and the 1W RSI hits (or comes extremely close to) the 30.00 oversold limit. As you can see that has happened last time on September 19 2022 (Inflation Crisis bottom), March 09 2020 (COVID crash), August 24 2015 (China slowdown, Grexit) and August 08 2011 (first correction since 2009 Housing Crisis). The situation most similar to the current, is the COVID crash as it was the fastest drop to the 1W MA200 and 1W RSI to 30.00. Despite the brutal correction, it took the market 'only' 43 weeks (301 days) to reach again the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. That is the top of the Blue Zone of the Fibonacci Channel Up that started on the March 2009 Housing bottom. The Blue Zone, consisting of the 0.786 - 0.382 Fib range, is important as it has dominated the multi-year bullish trend and contained the price action inside it, with only a few occasions diverging outside of it. The longest it took Dow to reach the 0.786 Fib again after such correction was 110 weeks (770 days) and that interestingly enough happened two out of the four times. Practically reaching the 0.786 Fib constitutes a Cycle Top. So essentially, despite the uncertainty and panic, the market is technically on a Support level that in 16 years we've only seen another 4 times, that's once every 4 years, which is a fair sample of a Cycle size. As a result, assuming stability comes to the world through trade deals (and why not Rate Cut announcements), we may see Dow reaching its 0.786 Fib again (and make new ATH) the fastest by February 02 2026, hitting 49000 and the longest by May 17 2027, hitting 56000 roughly. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJI
by TradingShot
1
DOW JONES Will the 1week MA200 save the day?Dow Jones / US30 almost reached its 1week MA200 today and immediately rebounded. Last time it approached it so closely was on October 23rd 2023 and last it crossed under it was September 19th 2022. The most recent was the first higher low of the 3 year Channel Up and the latter was the bottom of the last bear market. The 1week RSI hasn't been this low since June 13th 2022, which was again a near 1week MA200 test that caused an immediate rebound to the 1week MA50 before the rejection to the eventual bear market bottom. As long as the 1week MA200 holds and closes the candles over it, we expect the Channel Up to start a near bullish wave like post October 2023. Target 45200 (same as the March 2024 rally) which is around the All Time High. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:DJILong
by TheCryptagon
1
Modified Count to Reflect Recent DeclineIn truth, the levels we're seeing this morning when the SPX cash market opens, I was not anticipating seeing till the 3rd quarter of this year. Mid last week, we had positive MACD divergences on the intraday charts and was setting up to be almost a textbook bottom. Nonetheless, the SPX cash market will not hold the must hold zone when it opens this morning. This means we will get a retracement higher in a minor wave B that should last some time. This will represent one the final opportunities traders will have to relieve themselves of excess portfolio leverage and risk. We very well may spend the summer months retracing higher...but there is no doubt some of you reading this will assume this will result in the resumption of the previous bull market. It will not be.
CBOE:SPX
by maikisch
3
DOW JONES You will regret not taking this buyDow Jones / US30 remains under heavy selling pressure as it has been yet again rejected under the 1week MA50, failing to hold the closings over it of the past 3 candles. This is the strongest correction of the index since the September 26th 2022 bottom and the start of the Channel Up. Despite the negatives, the 1week RSI is almost on the 37.50 level, which is where the last higher low of the Channel Up was formed on October 23rd 2023, again under the 1week MA50. Obviously even though the downside may continue for a few more days, the extent is limited technically, especially since the worst of the tariffs have been priced and only new and more aggressive ones can inflict more non-technical fear on the market. This is a unique long term buy opportunity, the likes of which saw 2 rallies before of +21.10%. Even in the event of one more dip, a 48000 target towards the end of the year is very realistic. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:DJILong
by TheCryptagon
3
DOW JONES One break away from a rally back to 45000.Dow Jones (DJIA) got stopped on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as the market paused ahead of today's tariffs implementation. This is the 2nd technical rejection since the March 13 bottom, the first being n the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) last Wednesday. This bottom is technically the start of the new Bullish Leg of the 1-year Bullish Megaphone pattern, and is very similar, both in 1D RSI and price terms, to the first one (April 19 - May 20 2024). As you can see, we are currently within the sane 0.5 - 0.786 Fib range, where the price consolidated before the eventual 4H MA200 bullish break-out. If it continues to replicate the 2024 Bullish Leg, then be ready for a straight Resistance test once the 4H MA200 breaks. Our Target is 45000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US30Long
by TradingShot
1
DJIA H4 | Potential bullish bounceDJIA (US30) is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 41,282.01 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 41,080.00 which is a level that lies underneath a multi-swing-low support and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 42,240.15 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:US30Long
by FXCM
DOW JONES: 4 week bottom on the 1W MA50. Best time to buy.Dow Jones turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 46.611, MACD = -297.980, ADX = 37.851) as it is recovering today and more importantly keeps its price action above the 1W MA50. This is the 4th straight week that it trades and holds the 1W MA50, which is shaping up to be the natural long term support. That is keeping the 1W RSI neutral (47.224), which technically suggets that it is the most low risk level to buy. The 1W RSI made a double bottom due to this consolidation and the 1W MACD printed the first light red bar, all of which are similar to the October 23rd 2023 bottom. Both have been bottoms after bearish waves of the 1.5 year Channel Up and as a matter of fact similar in decline rate (-9.50%). The highest probability level for a rebound and start of the new bullish wave is this, and based on the previous, it should aim for the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 49,000). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by InvestingScope
The Stock Market Decline Appears to be only in the US as of nowLast week on one of my member live videos I pointed out to the attendees that European markets were currently at, or very close to their All-Time highs...whereas in the US, we've entered the technical definition of a stock market correction...(down 10%). If you're so inclined to Google an economic calendar, it also appears the economic metrics like CPI, unemployment, etc... appear much better as well. There's an old adage in the markets.... "When the US sneezes, the global economy catches a cold" . However, at this very moment in time, the only thing that appears sick is the US. Maybe that changes with time. I suspect that will be the case...but in any event, one thing that is clear is that our stock market indices are signaling that whatever economic sickness is to be contracted, it will have originated here...in the United States. That is certainly a new phenomenon. For the past couple years I have been warning my members (and followers here on Trading View) of a long-term top in the stock markets. Week after week in my trading room, I have commented that I believe I have all constituent waves accounted for, to the best of my ability, to say with a high degree of confidence that a super-cycle wave (III) has topped . What we have lacked is the price action to confirm that statement. This morning, I cannot tell you we have confirmation. That confirming probability only comes when price declines below the area of the wave 4 of one lesser degree. That area is outlined in the SPX daily chart entitled the "Must Hold Region". We are not there yet, nor do I think price makes a bee-line there in one shot. Therefore, I am NOT in panic mode this morning because I do believe we need a retrace higher and only that retracement's structure will inform us the higher probability of future price subdivisions....(higher or lower). Panic is the necessary trader behavior needed to decline in such fashion as I believe a super cycle wave (IV) will start out. However personally, I do not think it's today. Futures are red this morning and closer to the recent lows than last week...the headlines surrounding the stock market appear very negative...but as of this morning, the MACD indicator on intraday charts is saying this type of sentiment is getting slightly weaker and NOT making new lows. Therefore, I continue to maintain the price and technical indications tell me a minor B is either currently underway, or will be confirmed in the short term. Until those parameters get flipped, I'll reserve my panic (so to speak) for the c of (c) of intermediate (A) into the must hold region later this year... where it will probably be justified at that time. Best to all, Chris
CBOE:SPX
by maikisch
2
DJI US stock market forecast 2025-2026Assumption: oct-22 — nov-24 (1-2-3-4-5) wave is over. correction (a)-(b)-(c) is expected. likely structure is a 3 wave regular flat. Time: the correction is expected to last until at least sep-25. Price: it's too early to predict final price for wave (c). anticipated range is 35000-39000. wave (a) shall reach 39600. Long term waves: Major uptrend lasts 25 years. Major correcting downtrend lasts 9 years. Next major downtrend is expected to start in 2033-2034.
FX:US30
by OleksandrSnitko
DOW JONES: Are you ready for what's coming?Dow Jones is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.157, MACD = -244.290, ADX = 38.724) as it is attempting to recover the 2 month correction. It appears that the bottom has already been made as not only did the price rebound on the LL trendline but it did so on an oversold 1D RSI. This draws comparisons to the last big such correction of Aug-Oct 2023, which also declined by more than -9.40%. They key there was the formation of a 4H Golden Cross. Right now the price is stuck inside the 4H MA50 - 4H MA200 range, so if it crosses now over the 4H MA200, it will most likely confirm the start of the new bullish wave as it will form a 4H Golden Cross. Technically it can achieve a similar price rally as then, so our thesis remains bullish aiming at the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 50,000). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by InvestingScope