Get started

Djia

Sell in May, 10 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Yawn!!! 🥱. That's all for today's description of price action. See you on SeePI Wednesday... ➤ Now I fully comprehend the adage "Sell in May and Go Away". Because nothing happens in May. May as well cash out and earn some juicy returns in a money market fund at 4 or 5% pa. ➤ Let's see if CPI numbers present some volatility (and oh that debt ceiling drumming is getting louder too) ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Trading is 99% boredom EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
DOW JONES Channel Down emerging. This is its invalidation.Dow Jones (DJIA) is attempting to re-enter the Channel Down pattern that broke upwards, and on the bottom of which we gave the most efficient buy signal almost 2 months ago: At the moment the index is on the build up of a Channel Down which targets 32600. We will only buy if the price closes above its top (Lower Highs trend-line) and target Resistance 3 at 34900. As far as a long-term buy is concerned, we are only interested in buying if a Bullish Divergence is spotted on the 4H RSI, same as on March 15. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
U
by TradingShot
4
50 years of chop.good morning, --- what if i told you right now, that the stock market was about to enter into a 50 year correction? you'd probably dismiss it right away and go about your day, and that's natural, i get it. --- i'm not here to appease to your overall bias - in fact, i am here to directly oppose it. --- what i'm bringing to you today, is the idea of the completion of the primary third wave in the stock market. >if one looks at the yearly picture, one will notice a bearish divergence between the intermediate 3rd and 5th wave, of the primary degree wave (3). >this is highly indicative that the wave has indeed been completed. --- i am estimating that the 4th wave takes roughly 50 years to complete, and i theorize that it has begun as of the recent top in 2022. the original author of this idea was robert pretcher (the writer of elliott wave theory principle), this idea was initially introduced to me by my mentor, @bitdoctor a few years back. it has lingered in my mind through out the years, it has haunted me every single day as i have been looking for ways to confirm or find a way to invalidate it. as of today, i believe i have the necessary data to prove their original theory to be in fact, true. --- >this doesn't mean that we can't make a new high, in fact that is not what i'm trying to say here at all. >what i'm simply stating here, is that there's an extremely high probability that the stock market is going to move sideways for the next 50 years. >i might even be early a few years here, so please don't use this idea as any kind of financial advice, because quite frankly - it is very far from it. --- the minimum downside target for the macro fourth wave, is the previous degree wave 4 territory, which in this case sits between : $7,000 -12,000. 🍒
TVC:DJI
by Eloquent
4
SeePI, 9 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities changed little on Monday trade. It is probably digesting the price reactions from last week. It is also probably awaiting to see the CPI numbers on Wednesday. The data is released pre-market 1hr before US open so we may see some positioning ahead of the inflation number during Tuesday trade. ➤ To be honest I'm not expecting too much action on Wednesday either. This is because prices are trading within a range and I don't think the ranging activity is done. Furthermore, there is a distinct lack of movement in TLT, the 20yr US bond ETF. This is either because no one knows what's going on with interest rates over the long-term i.e. buyers/sellers are equally opposing each other or they think interest rates will stay at current levels for the foreseeable future. The comfounding economic data certaintly points to the latter. ➤ I'm yet to get a trade signal. We are confined to the sidelines until then. I'm hoping the CPI numbers will provide us with a trade opportunity. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Trading is patience. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Neither Here Nor There, 5 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Another day down, you'd start to think it's becoming a trend. It may be the start but as for now I've downgraded the Short-Term equity trend to Neutral - meaning it's trendless, neither here nor there. The reason for the trendless tag is that we have experienced a higher high and lower low in recent days - a mix of opposing trend definitions. ➤ Note the price gaps all over the place as indicated by the blue arrows. Today's price gap in the SPY warns of that "acceleration" top formation I described in yesterday's post. ➤ Interestingly, both my Primary and Secondary strategy gave exit signals and this has been executed. I currently hold no positions. It is reflective of the opposing forces. This was a nice hedge that helped to protect capital and delivered on the "diversifying" benefits of incorporating both strategies. ➤ Still, we suffered a loss on this hunt and we go hungry. The price action is developing into a familiar structure. If it plays out our way, I think we won't go hungry for long. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Trading is a battle between feast and famine. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Do Todays Participants & Pundits Understand Todays Stock Market?I’ll get right to the point. NO Now granted, as the reader, you’re immediately drawing your own conclusions about that opening statement. You're probably thinking... The author of this post is obviously bearish and therefore has an agenda. Ok, that’s fair. Then indulge me as I explain, in detail , why I believe todays market participants and financial news pundits do not understand Todays Stock Market. My only request of you, the reader, is to continue reading with an open mind till the end and then judge for yourself. I practice a form of technical analysis called Elliott Wave Theory. Whether one would consider it theoretical after 90 years since it’s introduction, or not, is a discussion for another time. This post is not some diatribe debating, nor defending the Principles of Elliott Wave. However, I’ll sum up Elliott Wave for the uninitiated in a simple explanation for sole purpose of understanding this post. Elliott Wave Brief Explanation: Elliott Wave means to forecast crowd behavior specifically as it pertains to price action within a given market. As a long-time practitioner of this form of analysis I am still amazed to this day, to see price follow through on my forecasts with a high degree of both accuracy, and reliability. I’m never bored. But in truth, this form of analysis has little merit in markets in which there are no LARGE CROWDS. Price action in thinly traded penny stocks, fly by night crypto currencies, and so forth. You simply cannot forecast what the crowd will do, in the absence of a true crowd. However, in LARGE CROWDS, the basic premise of Elliott Wave is prices tend to move in 5 distinct “Waves” within a given trend. During the course of that 5-wave trend, price will correct, consolidate or digest gains or losses in 3 distinct “waves” prior to that trend completing. To examine those waves within a trend, an analyst should be able to drill down into smaller and smaller time frames and see the same principles playing out as these price action patterns are fractal in nature. They are self-similar. Ok, that is an overly simplified explanation of Elliott Wave. Nonetheless, its one in which I think is enough where I can guide you through my broader reasoning. Let me start out with my long-term SPX analysis. Elliott Wave Analysis on the SP500: In the above chart you'll find the 4-hour fractal of the below larger monthly fractal. I have posted these charts many times before, so long-term followers of my work will recognize them. But I start this broader explanation with the below monthly chart. Displayed in the chart below you see a series of labels in green ( I ), ( II ), and ( III ). Those green labels are what Elliott Wave deems a super-cycle price action analysis…or count. Its referred to as a “count”, because practitioners of Elliott Wave Theory are simply counting waves. So if Elliott Wave is based on a series of 5-wave trend patterns, and 3-wave counter trend patterns that are FRACTAL in nature (my earlier over-simplified explanation), then after completing a wave ( III ), we obviously need a wave ( IV ). Now in all fairness to you the reader, has the monthly price action confirmed we’re in a super-cycle wave ( IV ) and wave ( III ) has in fact completed? NO. What confirms the price action is in a super-cycle wave ( IV ) event is a breach of the 2020 Covid-19 low of ES Futures 2174. That price (2174) is the litmus test for continuation to higher highs in the SPX or a long slog in equities that could last decades and decimate global wealth. Now I have long told my members that... although I do not know what the catalysts are that ultimately validate the forecasted price action, those catalysts always tend to show up on time . I think in my trading room, my members would whole heartedly agree with that statement. So, as I analyze price action from the day to day to the 1-minute chart and justify my primary long-term analysis today I am in no shortage of potential catalysts that are brewing. You know them all (Debt Ceiling, Regional Banking Crisis, The Fed, Inflation, Geo-Political…etc.) I choose not to speculate on the potential event, but on history. Is there a precedent? Yes, History. There is…. somewhat. Here it is. The last time we had our wave ( II ), super cycle counter trend price action, was the stock market crash of 1929. That is easy to see on the above chart, but what were the clues, or the potential catalysts leading up to that event almost 100 years ago? Clue #1: The Panic of 1907 The Panic of 1907 was…wait for it…” A Financial Crisis”. During this time, the irresponsibility of bankers caused Bank Runs, and ultimately that translated into a 50% decline in the NYSE. That’s half…50%. This dried up any liquidity for loans. In other words, a credit crunch. Sound Familiar? Sidenote: You starting to get the sense that bankers always seem to be present at the scene of the crime so to speak? It’s perplexing. Who are these nefarious characters? Banking, in general, is terrible business model. But I digress…back to the point. Clue #2: The Spanish Flu The Spanish Flu of 1918 was a global influenza pandemic (H1N1) that decimated a third of the population on planet Earth. The Spanish Flu became a global pandemic because exiting World War 1, the war effort censors were accustomed to censoring bad news. Therefore, most of the population was ill-informed regarding the dangers of (H1N1) and disproportionately this effected the young and old members on the population. This was also a time of climate change and population migration patterns and this exacerbated the spread and effects of the flu. This starting to sound like you’ve seen this movie before? Clue #3: Massive economic bounce back The jobs market was in high deficiency mode as early as 1922 having had so many of potential workers having died in the previous pandemic prematurely. This caused a massive supply-demand dislocation of (1) human nature to get out from under the atmosphere of The Spanish Flu and (2) live and consume…and the work force to meet those needs on a global scale. This resulted in a large economic expansion that lasted almost 10 years. In the United States, we refer to this era as, “The Roaring Twenties”. These three clues culminated in the stock market crash of 1929...hence our super-cycle wave ( II ). As an analyst, as an intellectual, and as a student of history, I cannot ignore these flashing confluence of events in my time. The Irish statesman, Edmund Burke has been attributed to having said… ” Those who don’t know history are destined to repeat it.” The Spanish philosopher George Santayana is credited with the aphorism, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” War Time British Prime Minister Winston Churchill wrote, “Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” In summary, how does this all shake out? Well, first and foremost I’ll say that this is not your father’s stock market, it’s not even your grandfather’s market. It’s more than likely your Great Grandfathers market. That market was terrible. That market had seismic effect on both society and asset appreciation. Keep in mind, this market has had it’s bull and bear markets. However, for the last almost 100 years, we’ve been in a secular bull market. During the last 100 years, we have experienced 3 impactful cyclical bear markets within a 93 year secular bull market since our super cycle wave ( II ) event in 1929. During the last 93 years, the stock market has essentially appreciated in a solid, predictable 45-degree angle higher. Buy and hold, buying the dip, has been both the statistical and practical successful trading thesis. If this is a wave ( IV ) super-cycle event, trader sentiment must change. This takes time. Traders must now go through re-conditioning. A mourning, if you will, of the past 93 years of a secular bull market. Unfortunately, this only occurs with the loss of money, and over time. Cavemen continued to touch fire as it is visually magical. However, after a while, I’m sure they drew the conclusion this is NOT ADVISED . I keep CNBC on in the back ground of my small trading office. The incredibly smart contributors, and titans of money they feature quote metrics like typical bear market durations, what typically happens after the Fed has paused rate increases 6 months afterwards…and I’ll be the first to announce to you, the reader, THAT NO LONGER APPLIES. We are no longer in that 93 year long 45-degree angle up. Those metrics… worthless . Those typical expectations… miss-guided . THIS IS NOT YOURS, NOR IS IT YOUR FATHERS MARKET. Now granted, this is somewhat of a thought speculation on my part (as of today). However, I do wonder…if traders, market participants and financial news pundits have objectively considered if they understand TODAYS STOCK MARKET. FOOD FOR THOUGHT. CHRIS
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
10
Topping Formations, 4 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities continued to sell-off but not aggressively. It wasn't the kind of impact we have had on previous interest rate decision days. That being said, futures are down further in Asian trade. ➤ Let's have a look at the last couple of topping formations of the SPY at previous peaks in Dec 2022 and Feb 2023. If we have just witnessed another peak we might be able to gain some insight on how this may play out in the immediate future. ➤ We saw two types of topping formations. Dec 2022 was a double-top with a failed upthrust at the second peak. Feb 2023 was a common topping process where there was a failed re-test of the high. ➤ The current "assumed" peak could be a replay of either scenarios as described. It can also be a third process where price continues to fall without any attempt to re-test the high. The price action signals a "rush for the doors". This is less common. It would be similar to the Aug 2022 peak. What we should expect to see is price gapping lower to reflect an acceleration downward. ➤ I remain long with a small position. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Have we peaked? May the 4th be with You. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Bring Back the Vol, 3 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Sharp drop in equities accompanied by a spike in the VIX. It seems the market didn't like the taste of abnormal low vol. It wanted things to get back to "normal". As a Trader, "normal" is good although sometimes we end up on the wrong side like today. Bring back the Volatility. ➤ The Strategy did as it should by halving the position size yesterday in anticipation that some level of downside may occur. I cut my long position further today upon another exit signal. My secondary strategy signaled a short trade. Overall I have a small long position going into US Interest Rate Decision/FOMC day. ➤ Before you ask, I have no view on the outcome of the interest rate decision and what may or may not happen. I don't spend much time on those fundamental aspects of the market. There are plenty of talking heads that will offer their opinion but only listen to those people who actually have a wager on the outcome. I wouldn't trust anyone who doesn't have skin in the game. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Looking to recoup some losses EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
DOW JONES This pull back is a great buy opportunity.Dow Jones is approaching the bottom of the 6 week Channel Up, the level that provided us with a low risk buy entry last time. The 4H technicals are in red (RSI = 36.764, MACD = 20.900, ADX = 24.648) and an oversold 4H RSI would be the ideal buy entry. As long as the 1D MA50 holds, which is even under the S1 and the 4H MA200 (which is effectively the rising Support), we will stay bullish targeting the top of the R1 Zone (TP = 34,600). If the price breaks under the 1D MA50, we will hedge it with a sell, which we'll close at 32,500, near S2. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
ULong
by InvestingScope
2
DOW JONES Small pull-back possible but bullish long-termOne and a half month ago we gave the most optimal buy entry for Dow Jones (DJI) exactly at the bottom of its 4-month Channel Down: Right now the index is trading inside a shorter term Channel Up that is technically aiming at the 34900 Resistance, which is the December 13 2022 High, as part of its Higher Highs process. If however the 4H MACD currently completes a Bearish Cross, it is more likely to see one last pull-back below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (33600) before the next rally. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
U
by TradingShot
4
Reversal Time? 2 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ An attempt to break above the Feb high fell flat. Literally. Equities ended where it started, slighty down from Friday close. It isn't a good look. ➤ Over the last few days, there has been a deceleration in the up move evidenced by the smaller candle sizes or price bars. It's like a car decelerating towards a known barrier ahead. It isn't confident that it can crash through the barrier or maybe it doesn't want to at all. ➤ I'm not here to question the car or in our case the market why or why not. I am here to best respond to what I can see from a short-term technical trading perspective. I therefore have cut my long position back to a moderate size. The chances for a price reversal is much higher and managing that risk is essential. There is still enough risk on the table to make good profits if the car decides to crash through but the car may indeed decide to go in reverse. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Perhaps this prey is too big to take down. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Banish the Bears 4ever (and a summary of other asset classes)🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 1 May 2023 ➤ Bullish sentiment drove prices higher once more on the last day of April trade. The momentum is building to take out the Feb high at 418.31 on the SPY. This level is important if looking at the monthly chart. A monthly close above this level will in my opinion bring about the beginnings of a longer term bull market. Will this occur in May? ➤ In the very short-term I am positioned long with maximum position size. Hopefully the bullish momentum will continue and kick start the new month on the right foot. ➤ Let's have a quick overview of other assets: ⦿ USD (daily): Winding sideways. I expect further weakening, 1.13 being the target (EURUSD). ⦿ TLT (weekly): Still range bound. I favour the long-term downtrend meaning higher interest rates. Interest rate decision this week may see prices breakout up. Downtrend remains in place unless price moves above 114. At that level, we indeed may see a change in trend. ⦿ GOLD (daily): Retracing, looks poised to take out the all time high at 2070 ⦿ NATGAS (weekly): Still unable to break above the 2.30 long term resistance zone. It doesn't look strong enough to breach the resistance. Further downside expected. ⦿ OIL (3-day): Bullish move may have peaked. If true, I expect a re-test of the low at a minimum at HKEX:64 (WTI). $64/65 is a multi-year support level. A break below would see much lower prices. ⦿ BTC (weekly): Testing, probing the long-term resistance level at HKEX:30 ,000/31,000. Price can drop further (pick your level) but the new bull trend is firmly in place. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 The Hunt is on. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Weekly Update: So Far... Everything is Going According to PlanI’ve shared this chart with my followers for a couple months now. You can check my posting history to see how the forecasts have NOT changed, but the chart is filling in nicely. Tracking the minutia at the micro level has been maddening over the last month. In my trading room I’ve advised my members to focus on the intermediate term pattern depicted in the above chart. Nonetheless, yesterday’s seemingly straight up move after about 9 am I’m sure scared traders who were positioned short. The irony of yesterday’s price action was although price traded not unexpectedly in my micro target box perfectly, I was expecting that sort of price action to take up till Monday or Tuesday of next week. So, in today’s market I’m not ruling out one more high into the 4170 area which would be the .786% retracement area. Much above that and the potential gets raised of invalidating our triangle pattern we started back in the last week of December 2022. But with no violation of the micro target box region which stood at 4130-4170 when price was at 4068.75 I have to continue to adopt the triangle pattern. So how does this triangle pattern conclude? I have guided both members and followers of my work with red arrows on the above chart since the end of February 2023 when the triangle pattern was first given credence. Currently, I am projecting this pattern to conclude mid-to-third-week in May. Yesterday’s price action has caused me to adopt a more sub-divided a-wave of our larger e-wave of the triangle, to complete our primary circle B. This was adopted after what I originally would be our a-wave came up slightly short of the 4064-4065 area, followed by a quick a-b-c retracement yesterday into 4166.50. Yesterday’s price action, although introduced further complexity and sub-divisions into what I am projecting as an e-wave bottom in a larger triangle B…to the degree we do not eclipse 4170, but ultimately 4198.50 (which would be a new short term high). I have to say… so far, everything is going according to plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
8
Banish the Bears, 28 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ An aggressive pump higher today in equities, undoing all the Bear's work over the previous days. The Bears are banished...or are they? ➤ It does look like one-way traffic at the moment. The Bulls have control. The only issue I have so far is their inability to close a month beyond the Feb 2023 high. This monthly high close (and there's just one trading day left this month) would in my opinion seal the deal for the long-term Bullish scenario. ➤ If this doesn't happen in April we will have to wait for May...but May is known as the month of "sell and go away". If Bears can hold out for another month, the scales may tip in their favour. ➤ I took profit on my long positions. Unfortunately, my mistake as detailed yesterday diminished what would have been a good pay-day. I hold a small long position. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 The Hunt was part failure part success. I'm still very hungry. I'm sure my Cubs are too. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
I Made A Boo Boo, 27 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ At an index level, equities couldn't hang on to early gains and retreated for another day. The price actually closed a minor gap from the previous uptrend as shown by the blue arrows. Note that there is a minor gap higher and a large gap lower from current levels in the SPY. The question is which one will get filled first? Comment below on what you think. ➤ This daily post is generally used to provide observations about the market and price action in pariticular but it also serves as a trading journal for myself. Today marks the first Trading Mistake I've made this year. ➤ I wrongly sized the current trade - double the size it should have been. That is why I cut my positions in half when this was realised. Of course, the Trading Gods have a habit of punishing mistakes to its maximum effect by taking that partial loss at the lows of the day! Unfortunately, I'm not alone with Copiers suffering the same fate. Sorry. ➤ Trading mistakes are part of the game. I accept that. The real issue here is that I didn't recognise the error straight away. I have now put in place a procedure to mitigate this from occurring again. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 The consolation is that it was a surface scratch and not a deep wound. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
DOW JONES: Channel Up transitioning to a H&S? Dow Jones is still trading inside a Channel Up but the recent pullback has made the 4H technicals almost oversold (RSI = 32.864, MACD = -84.940, ADX = 57.885). The RSI on such levels is a technical buy but the Channel Up has more room to fall before bottoming around the 1D MA50 and 4H MA200. We are looking for a buy at 33,100 but if 4H closes under the 4H MA200 we will short to S1 and then buy. In either case the target will be the top of the R1 Zone (TP = 34,600). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
U
by InvestingScope
1
Pretty Ugly, 26 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ From sitting pretty to pretty ugly. Today's price action has upended the bullish thesis that I was building. However, one ugly day doesn't mean things will now completely reverse. We need two days...OK, I'm just kidding. But on a serious note, the balance of power between the Bulls and Bears have seriously swung towards the Bears. ➤ In after-hours, GOOGL and MSFT stock are being heavily supported post earnings release. Let's see if this can hold up on Wednesday in particular at a broader market/index level. Note that AMZN and META also release earnings this week Wed/Thu (but after market close). ➤ Clearly, the Regional Bank crisis is on-going with FRC in the spotlight. This may re-spark conditions that was experienced during the SVB phase of the crisis. ➤ I got a very short-term buy signal and that was executed dutifully. I am now moderately long and looking for a quick bounce. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Pounced. A successful or failed hunt? We will know soon. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Sitting Pretty, 25 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities is proof that the world is flat. Flat and dull. I'm kidding, that's just Singapore. Although just after US market close I felt a light shake of the building evidenced by the swaying window blinds. I believe that was the tremor caused by a large earthquake off Indonesia. That was pretty much all the "excitement" for the day. ➤ I'm of the strong opinion that this flat and dull inactivity is a show that the Bulls are sitting pretty awaitng the next leg higher. Why are they taking a time-out? Probably to suck in as many shorts as possible to load up on their positions. ➤ I currently hold a small long position. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Ready to pounce. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
The Chop, 24 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities finished flat to down once more. Recent movement has been very low volatility as reflected by the VIX. I still favour further upside as price is well supported at these levels. ➤ That being said, my primary trading strategy did signal an exit and that was executed at end of Friday trade. An exit doesn't mean I am expecting to reverse and go Short. It just means the current trade has run its course. I still hold a long position with 20% of capital due to my secondary trading strategy. ➤ Let's have a quick overview of other assets: ⦿ USD (daily): Similar to the equity market, experiencing a small retracement. I expect further weakening, 1.13 being the target (EURUSD). ⦿ TLT (weekly): Still range bound. I favour the long-term downtrend meaning higher interest rates. ⦿ GOLD (daily): Also retracing but I expect all time highs. ⦿ NATGAS (weekly): Bounced higher to the 2.30 long term resistance zone. It doesn't look strong enough to breach the resistance. Further downside expected. ⦿ OIL (3-day): Bullish move may have peaked. If true, I expect a re-test of the low at a minimum at HKEX:64 (WTI) ⦿ BTC (weekly): As expected, we saw some profit taking. Price can drop further (pick your level) but the new bull trend is firmly in place. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Awaiting the next Primary trade signal... EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Just Another, 21 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities lost ground after a weak open followed by an attempt to make up ground only to lose it all and more prior to a small bounce off the low at close. Overall, it was just another meaningless day. ➤ Meaningless in the context that the price action has not broken any structures that warrants attention e.g a breakout out of a range. Right now, this small drop from the 18th April high is just another retracement in the uptrend and does not look to have any sinister intent. The favoured conclusion is for price to rise further. ➤ My Secondary Trading Strategy gave another buy signal to build on that conclusion. We are now at maximum position sizing (20% of capital). It is a small allocation in the overall scheme of things but it is only intended to add a marginal return to compliment my Primary Strategy. ➤ My overall long exposure is now moderate. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 As yet there's no evidence that the Bulls are done. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
Dow Activity Decelerating...For How LongI don't think it escapes anyone's attention that market activity levels (volatility) are exceptionally low compared to recent history. The VIX dropped below 17 and the innate activity levels on the major indices (like the ATRs) have followed the same course. The medium-term activity reading on the Dow (20-day) has dropped to the lowest levels since before the market topped and reversed at the beginning of 2022. That marries nicely to the very narrow range that the blue chip index has made recently. The AMEX:DJIA cleared the smallest three-day range in a long time this morning with the gap down, but it probably isn't signaling 'breakout' follow through expectations for many outside of those with 5 minute time frame charts. What is remarkable to me is that the activity levels are still decelerating - meaning short-term volatility is still dropping faster than medium-term. Here is the ratio of the 5-day (1 week) to 20-day (1 month) ATR ratio. There is natural 'mean' to this acceleration/deceleration.
TVC:DJI
by JohnKicklighter