DOW JONES This is the bottom. Fractals from 2022 confirm.Not surprisingly to us, Dow Jones has stayed inside the High Volatility region that we have identified back in late November:
The 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) has supported twice already since November 10 and is now going for its 3rd hold. If we pay a closer attention to the 1D RSI we see that it has printed the very same pattern it made on all Lows during the 2022 Bear Cycle. That is basically 3 occasions. The RSI is very close to the 30.00 oversold barrier and as the 1D MA100 supports, it makes it the most optimal long-term buy level on a 2-month horizon.
Even though it has been mostly trading sideways within the High Volatility Zone, on RSI terms, it is comparable to all 2022 Lows that bottomed out on an oversold 30.00 1D RSI and started an aggressive rally in the form of a Rising Wedge.
Our Targets are: short-term = 33400 (Pivot Zone), medium-term = 34400 (February 14 Resistance), long-term 35500 (April 21 Resistance).
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Djia
easyMarkets Dow Jones Daily - Quick Technical OverviewAfter a recent decline, the DJIA index found support near the 32700 area, which is near the lowest point of December. If, eventually, that support area surrenders, this could clear the path towards the 31740 zone.
Alternatively, a break above a short-term tentative downside resistance line, drawn from the high of February 14th, could help attract the bulls back into the game. More of them may join on a move above the 200-day EMA.
Disclaimer:
easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Apple: Bearish Daily Close Apple may have just given us the first daily topping signal. It closed below key support which leaves it extremely vulnerable to more downside. This leading stock will take the markets much lower if it breaks down.
Daily secondary lower close is on watch to solidify this trend change in apple.
Poised for Action, 1 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ February is done and dusted. Tuesday trade ended down after a late sell-off. The second consecutive down day. Although prices have moved laterally for past few days, the behaviour shows Bears taking control. Previously, we saw buying support to close out the day, this has now reversed.
➤ I think price is poised to stride lower very soon. I'd like to see VIX rebound higher in concert with a price drop to bring a higher level of confidence that the drop will stick. In fact, VIX has been stuck in the low 20s for a while. I need to see this spike much higher.
➤ Conclusion: February was favourable although there was little trading action. On to March we march.
us30 decline from 71% to -37% of yesterdays price displacementus30 is going to drop more than 330 points to erase yesterdays rally. Give me a follow if it pans out correctly.
A Short Pause, 28 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ As per recent weeks equity prices opened with optimism and finished with a whimper. Today was no exception. Price filled the large gap left open on Friday trade but made no further headway.
➤ S&P500 equity index is still dancing around the 400 level and the 200-day moving average. I expect this to continue but only for a few days. Price should break away from this area very soon.
➤ Price could move upwards to fill in the two smaller price gaps just above but I think more likely it may drop. A good sized drop will give me an opportunity to re-enter with shorts. A move higher may mean staying patient for a trade.
➤ There's plenty of action in other asset classes. See above links for USD and NATGAS price action.
➤ Conclusion: Last day of Feb, time flies by so fast when you're having fun.
TGIF, 24 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ A negative day to finish off a negative (shortened) week for equity prices. S&P500 was down around -2.7% from previous Friday close.
➤ Yet again we saw Friday trade finish higher than it started (green arrows in chart). This makes it 9 consecutive Fridays. Probably the only consistent observation that I can make since the start of the year. Yet I do see a wrinkle, overall, the size of the "body" of the candle i.e. distance between daily open and close has narrowed. Either someone has exploited this anamoly or it is simply the fact that we should expect a narrowing during a short-term downtrend since 2 Feb. In that case, when the bullish trend returns, we should once more see a large profitable body on Fridays?
➤ We should also note the gap in daily prices between previous days' close and the next days' open (blue arrows in chart). These tend to get filled in due course, meaning prices should at some stage (whenever that will be) will return back up to these levels.
➤ Anyway, I shouldn't bore you with such uninteresting and useless observations. Over this weekend, I'll re-visit some of the charts to look at any price developments in other asset classes such as NATGAS, GOLD, USDOLLAR etc.
➤ Conclusion: TGIF, have a great weekend!
DOW JONES Aggressive bullish reversal expectedDow Jones (DJI) broke below its Pivot Zone and Higher Lows trend-line and as per our strategy published 2 weeks ago, we took that break-out sell opportunity:
With the 4H RSI though printing Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows (i.e. a Bullish Divergence) and the price approaching the 32480 Support level and the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), which both provided Support and started aggressive rebounds on November 09 2022 and December 20 2022, Dow is turning into a medium-term (at least) buy opportunity again.
In fact the very same RSI Bullish Divergence formed the December 20 Low. It is important to add that this Low was formed after a 4H Death Cross, a pattern that we already formed again 2 days ago.
We are buyers again on Dow, targeting the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Then we will either wait for a pull-back or buy when the price breaks above the Pivot Zone and re-tests it as Support, in similar fashion as on January 06 2023 and January 23 2023. Long-term target 34300.
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us30 short form 50% to -21% of yesterdays price displacement Us30 is going to drop about -340 to -300 points today. approximately from 50% to -21% of yesterdays price displacement. Please give me a follow when this pans out correctly.
The 400, 24 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities were all over the place on Thursday trade. Starting higher, dipping lower before moving back up to where it all pretty much started.
That is "The 400".
➤ 400 is the key round number level of the S&P500 Index (SPY) or 4,000 for the SPX500. Price tends to get drawn to and then gyrate around these round numbers like a moth to a flame. Not to be outdone, there is also the 200-day moving average in the midst.
➤ What's significant about the round numbers like 100, 1,000 or 30,000? Nothing in particular. It's just that "human" psychology finds them "favourable" or "comforting" or "satisifying" perhaps? It's certainly more appetising than a number like 30,627. Obviously, algos and bots also try to exploit these conditions, hence the back and forth we usually see.
➤ I took the exit signal to get out of my short position. Does it mean prices may bounce higher? It's certainly possible but I don't have a high conviction view. I'm going to sit it out for now until the next favourable opportunity hopefully very soon.
➤ Conclusion: Happy to be counting my profits until the next trade.
DJIA Is Hunting Support at 31000-32000 AreaDJIA going down for C wave. So the correction is not done yet it seems. I think that commodity currencies can make deeper pullbacks then; AUD, NZD will be my favorite ones for longs (longer-term) when this correction on DJIA unfolds.
Trend Continuation, 23 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities finished slightly down although tech and small cap outperformed. Price recovered from the day's low towards the end of the trading session but was not able to hold on to earlier gains.
➤ Overall, there's little to say about today's price action. S&P500 once again finished below the 400 level. Usually around these "round" numbers, price likes to move to and fro.
➤ I continue to hold my large short position.
➤ Conclusion: I still favour trend continuation to the downside in the short-term.
Hang On Tight! 22 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ It was a strong red day across the board with small-cap and tech suffering the most. Interestingly the DOW 30 lost more than the S&P500. That is unusual. Our hanging wo(man) failed to hold on to support on two accounts. Firstly the short-term low at 405 and also the 200-day Moving Average.
➤ Today's losses wiped out all of the February gains as well as 50% of the gains for the year (as measured from the recent peak).
➤ So where will our hanging wo(man) land? Around 390 is a clear first target. If that doesn't hold, next level is 380.
➤ I continue to hold my large short position.
➤ Conclusion: Hang on tight!
Don't Leave Me Hanging! 20 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equity prices finished Friday trade in an unconvincing manner. It looks like a wo(man) struggling to hang on from height (as illustrated). Obviously I'm a bit biased given my short positioning. Price did hold above the recent low at 405 so there is an opportunity for price to continue to recover.
➤ BTW, have you noticed that on every Friday since the start of the year, the market has closed higher than the open? What does it mean? Probably nothing...just thought it was good trivia.
➤ Anyhow, the price is really hugging my predicated price path nicely. To stay that way, we need to see the price drop immediately on resumption of trade Tuesday. There's nothing magical about the path, it is completely coincidental that the price is following it.
➤ Conclusion: Look out below.
us30 shortus30 short 12RR. My analysis suggests that a big decline is approaching. Its probably going to end next weak before mondays us open. tell me what you think
It's Showtime! 17 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ We continue to see significant intra-day volatility in equities. Swings in excess of 1% up and down are now the norm. We should continue to expect this especially during this crucial period.
➤ This is the first day after many that the prices have managed to finish lower. The Bulls were not able to support the price. Their attempts today failed. That was sufficient to give me the signal to go ALL IN. Meaning, I am now SHORT with the maximum position size. It's Showtime!
➤ For things to go my way, I firstly need to see the price confidently break below 405. This was the recent low in the side-ways movement in the past couple of weeks. Then there is the much watched 200-day moving average at around 400. Below that is a possible fast drop to 390. That's around a 5% move from current levels.
➤ Conclusion: The Short trade plan is beginning to move in my favour but plenty of things may go wrong.
easyMarkets Dow Jones Daily - Quick Technical OverviewThe DJIA index continues to slowly form higher lows, however it is currently struggling with key resistance near the 34500 level. In order to see further advances, a break of that area is required. We will then target the highest points of December and April 2022.
For the downside, a break of the short-term tentative upside support line would be needed. Also, a drop below the 33543 hurdle, which is the current lowest point of February, may clear the way to some lower areas.
Disclaimer:
easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Now or Never, 16 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ For the fourth consecutive day, price finished the trading day higher than the open. All this "bullish" action has occurred within the shadows of the large "bearish" bar on 9th Feb.
➤ Yesterday, I looked at the Bearish case of this "laboured" move. Today I'm going to touch on the Bullish story.
➤ The case for being Bullish is quite simple. The market has formed a Bullish "flag" technical chart formation. This is a minor retracement where prices whipsaw up and down either in a sideways or slight downward manner within the primary Bull trend. At some stage, price will then accelerate higher by breaking above this price congestion.
➤ The 4 consecutive up bars of recent days is telling us that despite the best effort of the Bears, the Bulls have overcome them.
➤ Conclusion: It is now or never for the short trading plan. Another day like today would see me switch camps to the Bulls.
DOW JONES Take advantage of this excellent channel!Dow Jones is trading inside a Channel Up for the past three weeks. With the use of the Fibonacci Channel we clearly see the heavy varience levels within 0.236 - 0.786. We will buy low and sell high for as long as the pattern remains valid.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current 4H candle.
2. Sell at 34300.
3. Buy at 33900.
4. Sell at 34400.
Targets:
1. 34300.
2. 33900.
3. 34000.
4. 33950.
Tips:
1. The 4hour RSI is inside a range that matches perfectly the highs and lows of the Channel. Use it for additional confirmation of entries/ exits.
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All To Play For, 15 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ The price reaction post the Inflation data was anti-climatic. Equities started lower but ended higher. Overall, slightly down from the previous day.
➤ Don't be fooled by my chart that has plotted an almost perfect trajectory for the price path thus far. This will most certainly be wrong. I'm no Nostradamus.
➤ For Traders like myself who are holding a short position, the rise over the last three days has not managed to surpass the large down day on 9th Feb. Bulls are finding it tough. Of course, that doesn't prevent prices from surging higher, it just shows that the Bears are still in the game. The game is wide open, it is all to play for.
➤ I would need to see the VIX reverse course quick smart though. It collapsed today. A solid up tick is needed for the Bear thesis to play out.
➤ Conclusion: It is still going to plan.
a little 3:1 shot on us30Expecting a small move on the Dow Jones today, nothing audacious. A 0.8% decline to end todays session. Tell me what you think down below..
Going to Plan, 14 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Happy Valentine's Day to all my Copiers and Followers! Even if the market is showing you no love, I still will! 😘
➤ Equities moved higher Monday. It was expected but I didn't know to what extent. Nor does it matter unless it moved beyond the levels as set out in my post yesterday: "The Perfect Trade Plan". See related idea below.
➤ Today's aggressive move higher does not alter our plan, if anything, it is going to plan. It can be argued that today's move was pretty meaningless. It was completely encapsulated by the large down bar on 9th Feb, it tells us very little of what happens next. You could further argue that this is a "trap" to allow the big players to exit their holdings or to put on more shorts at a better price. Very much like the bullish price action on 7th Feb. It all has to do with the upcoming main event.
➤ Inflation data Tuesday will almost certainly reveal if the above is true. It will probably also mark the make or break moment for my trade plan. A daily close above 417 on the SPY or if VIX collapses below 17 will force me out of my position with a loss.
➤ Conclusion: Still going to plan.
The PERFECT Trading Plan, 12 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Here's my plan of attack for the early part of next week if all things go according to plan:
⦿ I am already holding a small short position in the equity market. I'm looking for further downside to play out in the next couple of weeks. The major catalyst is the US inflation data release this coming Tuesday.
⦿ As illustrated on my chart, this is the idealized path I would like to see the price take in accordance to my trade plan. I would like to see the price move flat or higher on Monday. This is very possible given that there might be further buying support flowing on from Friday.
⦿ On inflation data Tuesday, I would like to see equities sell-off. A sufficiently aggressive sell-off will provide me with the opportunity to add to my shorts to a maximum position size.
⦿ I would like to see prices continue falling for the remainder of the week and beyond. The primary price target would be down to 390 on SPY or 3900 on SPX500.
❓What can go wrong?
⤑ A lot. The second worst scenario is that Bulls take charge on the release of the inflation data and drive prices aggressively closing beyond 417 on the SPY or VIX collapses below 17. This will force me out of my position with a loss. Although It won't be disastrous given my small position size.
⤑ The worst scenario is after adding to a maximum position, price reverses aggressively higher beyond 417 on the SPY or the VIX collapses below 17. This will inflict maximum loss.
➤ Conclusion: It nevers goes to plan.
