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Pause...1st November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Welcome to November. Just two months to go prior to the end of a long but so far successful year. However, there will be a lot of action and many trading opportunities still to come. ➤ Except maybe not for a day or two. As if on queue we have a pause on proceedings. This is to be expected both from a fundamental and technical viewpoint. We are awaiting the important US Interest Rate decision on Wednesday and S&P500 is up against strong resistance (pink zone). ➤ If you are familiar with my trading style, you will know I don't like these 50/50 situations. Prices can break above or falter at the resistance. It's a perfect set-up by the Trading Gods to take your money. They either can hunt down your well-placed stop-loss or trap you against your directional bet. This is especially true when important economic data is released. ➤ My exposure is low right now so I'm quiet relaxed. I did have a go at buying NASDAQ yesterday, but cut the position as price failed to hold well. My overall 20% long exposure remains. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Unless something dramatic happens on Tuesday, my positioning will remain the same. I'll be waiting for the fireworks display on Wednesday to show the path forward.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
US30 31st OCTOBER 2022Concerns about recession resurfaced among investors as the Fed continued to follow a hawkish path lined with interest rate hikes. This led some companies in the US to change their earnings projections again, with several companies and analysts revising their outlook downward for the coming quarter. The market also expects the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate again at its November meeting. According to FedWatch, 96.7% of market participants project that the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate by 75 bp and bring the Fed funds rate to a range of 3.75%-4%. Wall Street still tends to weaken despite the positive sentiment from the release of the financial performance of issuers in the US.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by DNP-FX
2
Time for a Pause? 31st October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ S&P500 leapt higher to the upper resistance zone highlighted in pink. This is probably the best opportunity for price to take a pause or reverse downwards. A clear break above the zone will give the Bulls impetus to push higher as there is little to no resistance left until the top of the double-bottom formation as explored in a previous post. ➤ VIX is approaching the pink zone as well where reversals have occurred. This will add weight to the Bearish argument. We will know soon enough with key economic data/policy decisions this week including US employment, manufacturing and interest rates. ➤ I closed my ill-timed NASDAQ short exposure and also cut my long exposures in half. Leaving an overall low 20% long exposure. This will change quickly if prices reverse course. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Inflexion point incoming?
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
We are Many, 28th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ One thing I like about trading indices is that I don't have to deal with individual stock risk. A reasonably diversified portfolio will do the trick too. We have seen some major moves in the price of mega cap stocks this earnings season. Meta, Netflix, Amazon to just name a few. Overall, at the index level, they were pretty much non-events. The Many overcame the Individual. ➤ With the exception of tech, indices have overcome the bad individual stocks moves. This lends to a sense of bullish resilience. Something we probably haven't seen for a while. Does this mean that this bullish bounce is more sustainable or simply a case of "better" macro-economic factors such as a potential easing of interest rate rises have temporarily overshadowed bearish proceedings? ➤ I added a small short exposure in NASDAQ whilst keeping my longs in S&P500 and DJIA. An overall 30% long exposure. This will change quickly if prices reverse course. The S&P500 is sitting on short-term support. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Major earnings news is over...back to the macro-news grind.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
VIX is in the MIX, 27th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Price pushed higher once more but was unable to hold most of the gains. More often than not, this bearish looking daily reversal candle is not bearish at all. Buyers tend to bid it back higher. ➤ Price is approaching the next line of resistance. If successful in overcoming that hurdle, the next hurdle is some distance away at 417 on the SPY. That is 9% higher from here. ➤ The VIX (equity fear index) is contracting quickly well below my panic level of 30. If it keeps falling, it will soon hit the zone where things get interesting. This is the area where in previous months equity prices have reversed downwards and VIX rebounded higher. More often than not, the subsequent expansion in VIX has ended with equity prices setting a new low. ➤ I remain with 40% long exposure in US indices, looking for further upside in the short-term. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Keep an eye on the VIX.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
DOW JONES on an aggressive rally towards the 1D MA200!It was 2 weeks ago when we made a case for a medium-term buy on the Dow Jones index (DJI), against popular belief, as we had early signs that the index made a June 17 type bottom and was about to repeat the June-Aug rebound: Our view has been confirmed so far and following the 1D RSI break above the Lower Highs and the 1D MACD Bullish Cross, the rally broke above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) with ease and is headed towards the 1D MA200 (grey trend-line). Today's analysis is on the 4H time-frame, in order to get a more detailed look on the short-term. We see that Dow Jones has already formed the 4H Golden Cross (when the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line)) that comes when the price breaks above the 1D MA50. At the same time, the price has already broken inside the volatility zone of the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. Based on the previous fractal, we could see a week of sideways price action before Dow targets the rejection zone (and the medium-term target) within the 1D MA200 (grey trend-line) and the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line). For comparison purposes in order to get a better understanding of Dow's proportionate position compared to the previous rebounds, we've plotted all rebound sequences on top of another (Black line = Feb 24 - March 22, Grey line = June 17 - August 16 and Green line = October 02 - today). Though not 100% correlated, it is obvious that there is a high degree of convergence among all three sequences. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
ULong
by TradingShot
5
Double Bottom? 26th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Price pushed strongly higher through resistance. After-hours trading is showing weakness due to earnings releases from Google & MSFT. ➤ With today's action, it is probably right to say the market structure has formed a double bottom formation (one could argue a small double bottom also occured with left/right bottom on 30 Sep/13 Oct). The larger structure has a left bottom on 17th Jun low and right bottom on 13th Oct low. If true, the first price target for the larger structure is the high at the peak on 16th Aug, price of 431 on the SPY. We are 12% away below that level. ➤ Most US/Europe indices have overcome short-term resistance levels. ➤ I added 40% long exposure in US indices, looking for further upside in the short-term. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Double-bottom formations are generally pretty reliable. Let's see how this plays out with the positive expectancy of US mid-term elections and the seasonal Christmas-rally.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Resistance is Futile, 25th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I'm not a nerdy Star Trek fan but it seems the phrase about resistance is appropriate here. For the S&P500, price is challenging the upper ceiling of the range that has unfolded from the start of October. ➤ A higher high has developed due to the temporary intrusion above the resistance level. This is a basic requirement to confirm a longer term trend change. A major higher low is now required. ➤ The bluechip DJIA (DOW30) is leading the charge higher. This is a bit suspect given that you would expect the riskier indices such as the NASDAQ to lead in a bullish environment. This may be a temporary lag but we need to keep an eye on it. ➤ I now hold zero exposure having exited my S&P500 position at resistance. I don't like to play when prices stop at support or resistance levels. More often than not, prices reverse course rather than break through. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I'm looking for a bottoming VIX. If this occurs, I will jump in to short the market. If prices keep elevating I will miss out but I won't be kicking myself for it. Is Resistance really futile?
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
10/23/22 HONHoneywell International Inc. ( NASDAQ:HON ) Sector: Producer Manufacturing (Industrial Conglomerates) Market Capitalization: 123.158B Current Price: $182.81 Breakout price trigger: $185.85 Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $182.00-$169.55 Price Target: $200.40-$203.00 (1st), $221.20-$226.00 (2nd) Estimated Duration to Target: 161-170d (1st), 323-351d (2nd) Contract of Interest: $HON 3/17/23 190c, $HON 1/19/24 200c Trade price as of publish date: $8.20/contract, $17.10/contract
NASDAQ:HONLong
by lord_catnip
Whipsaw, 24th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ If the chart is looking congested, that's because it is. This is due to the whipsawing, range bound, choppy conditions. I think I've ran out of other descriptions...coiling maybe. I'm pretty sure market-makers are having a good time of it and perhaps day traders too...although the intra-day volatility and news flow, it may be hard to handle. ➤ With such conditions, it is probably wise to reduce risk and sit on your hands rather than being tempted to do something rash. That's exactly what I've been doing. There's been numerous times where a potential sustained bearish move looked to be on the cards but reversed course to snuff out that opportunity. An eager beaver would be licking multiple wounds from any pre-emptive strikes. ➤ That being said, price structures on all major equity indices in the US and Europe that I trade are almost back in sync. This simply means, once a trade opportunity arises, I will most likely be able to add risk simultaneously in multiple indices, hence, build a moderate to high conviction position at the portfolio level. Above average profits or losses should be expected. ➤ I remain long with +20% exposure for now. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Coiling price action, poised to strike.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Range or Trend? 21st October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Without wanting to sound like a broken record, prices are still treading carefully around the important support/resistance level. ➤ That being said, the Bearish picture is progressively getting clearer. Not enough yet to pull any triggers but very close. Here's why and why not: ➤ S&P500 price once again rejected the opportunity to stay above our key level at 371. Finishing near the daily low and printing a bearish looking candlestick. ➤ We can count the recent peak on 18th Oct as another lower high. The classic definition of a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows remains intact. ➤ VIX continues to contract. Now below 30, out of the panic zone. Contractions usually lead to higher equity prices. Not so in the last few days. This needs a resolution to clear up the overall bearish picture. I am watching this as a determining factor. ➤ I remain long with +20% exposure but will change drastically soon. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Prices are trending down but also staying within a range. Most signs show bearish continuation. Easy to get whipsawed here.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
DOW JONES Repeating the July bullish fractal. Still time to buy!It was just 10 days ago when we made a case for a medium-term buy on the Dow Jones index (DJI), against popular belief, as we had early signs that the index made a June 17 type bottom and was about to repeat the June-Aug rebound: Our view has been confirmed so far and following the 1D RSI break above the Lower Highs and the 1D MACD Bullish Cross, the price quickly has come a few clicks away from the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). Today's analysis is on the 4H time-frame, in order to get a more detailed look on the short-term. We see that Dow Jones has already broken above both the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) which is supporting currently. Based on the 1D RSI it seems that we are still in the early stages of this uptrend to a Lower High (at least). The 4H Golden Cross (MA50 above MA200) hasn't formed yet and in order to get a better understanding of Dow's analogous position compared to July, I've plotted the June-July sequence on today's price action (black line). As you see, based on that, the 1D MA50 break should come by next week's end (the earliest), though of course this isn't absolute as even though similar, the current price action hasn't followed the exact pattern of June-July. Above the 1D MA50, the next volatility zone should be within the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, making way for the rejection zone (and the medium-term target) within the 1D MA200 (grey trend-line) and the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
U
by TradingShot
4
Trapped, 20th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Prices continue to dance around the key support/resistance levels. This time falling under my key level. ➤ It's not the only index doing this dance. STOXX50 is sitting right under the short-term resistance at 3484. On the other hand, DAX is hovering above the 12670 support. This also holds true for DJIA and NASDAQ, the former below and the latter above their respective key levels. This is not sustainable. They will need to decide on which side of the fence they belong. ➤ I'm now leaning towards the Bear case. I'm not acting on it right now as my short-term Index Trading Strategy hasn't sent a Short signal. However, my medium-term equity signal is threatening to flash RED and I've entered a Short trade for my long/short individual stock trading strategy. Timing is never perfect on these but the overall bias is there. ➤ I remain long with +20% exposure but will change drastically soon. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: The dance continues in these choppy and volatile conditions. Be agile and don't get trapped sitting on the wrong side of the fence.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
🟰 Support & Resistance, 19th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Today's price action is showing the importance of support and resistance levels. At market close, you can see the price just holding a key level after another eventful day. Price gapped higher at open, it then dropped to fill the that gap and then recovered. After hours trading is showing further upside pressure post Netflix earnings results. ➤ The continued Bullish case would be for prices to overcome the next level of resistance at the 379/380 area on the SPY. This would set a higher high. ➤ The Bearish case would be the inability for it to hold that resistance level and/or close below the 371 level where price closed. ➤ I remain long with +20% exposure. ➤ Conclusion: Choppy conditions with supports and resistance levels in play. Directional/Trending trades will be difficult unless price clears these areas. Mean-reversion trades work best here.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Chop Chop, 18th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Prices did at U-turn (again) and reversed all of Friday's losses with Financials/Banks leading the way. We are back in a ranging market with this yo-yo type action. Prices may attempt to move higher to the top of the larger range if VIX continues to contract. ➤ I took profits on my European long positions as exit signals were given by my Strategy. I added a small long position in S&P500. ➤ I'm long with +20% exposure. I may add more US exposure if prices weaken. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I don't know when the chop will stop. It can be a tricky environment to trade especially with such large daily moves.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Upside Bias, 17th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Despite the retracement lower on Friday following the Thursday price surge, I am still looking for further upside. This holds true as long as the we don't have a daily close below the lows. As mentioned previously, I am expecting a re-test of the low, this may be that test or it is still to come in the near future. My medium-term outlook (for a few weeks) is also biased upwards. ➤ Clearly we are in a risk-off environment where performance of DJIA > S&P500 > NASDAQ. Therefore, I'm not expecting any long lasting bounce until there is evidence that NASDAQ is taking the lead. Riskier stocks should lead any substantial long-term rebound. ➤ I'm long with +40% exposure all in European indices. I would like to add US exposure but keeping risk low at this juncture is the right call IMO. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Earnings should play a greater role this week and next as all the big names will be releasing results and providing future outlook.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
2
Dow Jones Industrial Average relative strength on the riseThe overall US equity market is still having a hard time stabilizing and catching its footing, however, if we examine the major US indices closer we do notice more and more relative strength coming out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This past week it never took out its September lows, the MACD momentum oscillator continues to climb aggressively, and on Friday we remained in the top 1/3 of Thursday's bullish engulfing bar. I started a position on Thursday and will keep a tight leash risk managing it going forward. More notes on the chart.
AMEX:DIALong
by EvanMedeiros
SPX, What is going on the market ??Which Bull Cycle is market correcting? Answer to this question shows us where MAY be a good point to buy the dip with open eyes and how to be prepared for alternative scenarios. As shown and explained on the charts, there are three alternative scenarios for now and all of them are valid although they have different probabilities. : 1. Best case scenario : In this very bullish scenario , market is just correcting the bull run started after pandemic low. In this case, we are not to much far from the SPX bottom. 3195 to 3505 corresponding to 0.618 and 0.5 Retracement levels is the zone in which SPX will bottom. I give least possibility to this scenario but surely keep it in mind since it is still a valid one. 2. Moderate case scenario : In this scenario, SPX is correcting the bull cycle started at 60.96 on 1974 and ended at ATH. In this case, SPX will reach to very unpleasant and painful target zone which is 1878-2439 corresponding to 0.618 and 0.5 retracement levels respectively. I give most possibility to this scenario. Proofs and evidences for this scenario( and two others of course ) are provided on my published video idea about DJIA (See related idea for more details). 3. Worst case scenario : In this scenario, market has completed 90 years impulsive section and mother of all crashes is on the way. I prefer to pray for the market in this case instead of any explanations. May GOD Bless The Market. Maybe it is time to leave the habit of (( Buy the Dip )) with closed eyes. Good luck every body.
SP:SPX
by SaeedSajedi
27