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Djia

Sidelining, 6th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Bears tried to push back the charging Bull and ended without success. Price bounced off the support line strongly. Clearly there are buyers at these levels. VIX contracted further. Is the panic over? ➤ I'm of the opinion that we may see the price rise a little more followed by a down move as a secondary test of the yearly low before another leg up. It is unclear to me if the down move will make a new low or a higher low. We may end up with something that looks like the price action in mid-Jun. A temporary sideways market. ➤ My current exposure is 0%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Waiting on the sidelines, looking to trade a potential sideways market.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Thank the UN, 5th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The United Nations (UN) is meant to save humanity from itself. I guess a floundering equity market does meet that remit especially with rumours of Credit Suisse troubles. Also, think of the millions of Baby Boomers who are retiring every day. They need to sell off their risky assets (i.e. equity portfolios) to buy safer alternatives like bonds for their retirement. We certainly don't need the richest generation in history begging for government handouts. 4% interest rates look pretty decent especially when the inflation fight is won. ➤ The resulting short squeeze was quite breathtaking. Shorts did have an opportunity to take down their risk when the rally ceased momentarily intraday, but I'm guessing, many didn't or even added to their positions. Lesson: Don't fight the UN. ➤ This squeeze seems to have some more juice left. The resistance level is all the way up at 393 for the S&P500/SPY. The VIX has dropped below my panic level of 30. This may continue to drop until we get a sizeable correction. ➤ My current exposure is 0%. I got out too early but IMHO it was still the right decision at the time. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Make a donation to the various UN programmes since they saved your bacon.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Old Tricks, 4th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Wallstreet pulled out the oldest trick in the trading book to start off a new month: a fake breakout. A breakout occurs when price confidently breaks through a support or resistance level and closes beyond that level. This is what occurred on 30th Sept to set a new yearly low for the S&P500. Once the price breaks out, it tends to keep moving in that direction except when it doesn't. That's why Trading is so difficult. ➤ Luckily for me, the breakout faded and I recouped a lot of the recent losses. I took off most of my positions too. The price is back in the chop zone between supports. I don't particularly fancy choppy conditions. ➤ The Bulls will be keen to point out this price action is laying the foundation for a double-bottom formation. It's too early to tell. Certainly, there is pent up buying. This type of formation is usually symmetrical i.e. the left and the right bottoms look similar. This would mean it will need to spend some time around the support zones to build the right bottom. ➤ My current exposure is +20% in NASDAQ. I'll give it a day or so more to catch up to other indices as it lagged on this surge. I don't want to be involved holding European indices at the moment as they are trading below the resistance level. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: New month, new beginnings...it certainly is so far.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Breakdown, 3rd October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I was looking for market participants to do some window dressing on Friday to make a horrible September end on a positive note. Instead, we saw window selling. Ending with an exclamation mark to show how bad the month was for long only investors. It was a bad end for myself as well. I gave back pretty much all the profits from earlier in the month. ➤ The silver lining was that the VIX hardly budged. This was enough for me to add long SPX500 and DJ30 positions. The obvious risk is increasing exposure when the SPX500 has broken the yearly low. I am keenly aware. However, a systematic trading process only works if we stick to the rules over the long-run. Making subjective decisions based on emotions will only introduce inconsistency. ➤ There are heightened levels of risk. UK pension system is in crisis due to bond yield upheaval. There is a rumour that a large financial entity is having liquidity issues. All this brings back memories of the Lehman collapse and the onset of the Global Financial Crisis. ➤ My current exposure is +100% composed of all 5 indices I trade, SPX500, DJ30, Nasdaq, STOXX50 and DAX. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: New month, new beginnings...
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
2
US30 - Recession Outlook - Con'tI adjusted wave 6 on the current chart to the current downside move. Haven't been looking at US30 for awhile, but been focusing more on the S&P chart. Either way, the pattern is the same. Market is playing out, kind of as forecasted based on charts published months back. Are we there yet? At wave 5, the market was going "are we there yet?" Then the market shown that it is still strong. We had a bear rally where retail traders/investors continued to buy into. The buying-the-dip movement was still still going strong strong too, and the economy was declining but still not as bad as it seemed to be. There was still some optimism in the market. But all of that was perhaps short sellers taking profit at a key level where price broke a fairly strong resistance. The rebound above strong resistance on 1W above 31,450. Damn, this shit is real Now wave 6, it looks to me as the "oh shit, things are not actually getting better" phase. We continued the downtrend, posting a 2nd negative month consecutive bearish candle with a top wick that didn't break above previous candle body, a huge bearish body and very small lower wick. Are we going up? Looking at the 2008 crash pattern, we do see some ranging before the final drop, then recovery. It looks to me like a "we going up?" phase. Then price dips further to a "value price point", and market pivots, it will then be time to buy on a higher low, close back within the previous ranging price points. Just on charts, probably looking to see how markets react around 26,600, if the market finds a bottom. But I'm also expecting this time to be different as we had so much money printing. We're in an environment where we are rising interest rates to try to combat inflation, yet faced with a recessionary outlook. Also, with a pandemic which just passed, geopolitical events, war. Truly uncertain times.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by geneAnalytics
US indexes Possible Double BottomEven though the S&P broke the previous summer low if Monday opens higher we can expect that this was a fakeout and the double bottom pattern will come into play. The overall fundamental picture is more critical and dominant than some lines on the chart. However, still, it can be a high-risk, high-reward trade that can come into great use if we already have some puts on the main indexes as the retail investors holding puts are at record highs. With the VIX index being highly volatile recently it wouldn't be a big surprise if this break of the bottom is a fake out and retest of the fibo level which overlap with the technical analyzes. Again the overall trend is bearish but if we see an opportunity that matches our trading style we have to act accordingly.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by Elite_Forex
DJIA, A comprehensive analysis from 1932 to 2022 ! Whats next?Hi great followers, traders and investors ! Today, We analyzed one of the most important indices in US market. I decided to record a video since I thought that it may be difficult to show what I am thinking in writing. In fact, I wish to transfer my idea better by this video. In this video, We investigate Worst, Moderate and Best case Scenarios. We analyzed the index from 1932 to 202022 and discussed different possible scenarios. We can never predict the future without looking to the past. As I told in video, what I currently suppose to be the most likely scenario is the moderate one, but we have to keep in mind that other scenarios even bullish one is possible therefor, we have to be open-minded and be ready for all possibilities. Good Luck every body.
TVC:DJI
by SaeedSajedi
36
Trapped II 30th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The sequels just keep coming...prices are still stuck in the narrowish support and resistance levels for the S&P500. This time ending right at the support level in contrast to the previous day. If you get the feeling some one is trying to shake you out, that's exactly what it looks like. That being said, a break to the downside would negate this theory. ➤ For the bullish case, I need to see the VIX contract and contract quickly, ideally back below 30. If it's sticky above 30 like the current state of inflation, we probably will see further downside. ➤ My current exposure is +60% composed of Nasdaq, STOXX50 and DAX. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: End of month window dressing please!
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
Trapped! 29th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Another hugely volatile day. Pre-market conditions were looking disastrous as US indices were south of 1% and European indices were down over 2%. A complete turnaround occurred as bond yields reversed lower. Bond yields have become unhinged and forced central banks to step in to try and control the situation. We should expect such volatility at market extremes but it doesn't make it any easier to sit through. ➤ The bounce off the support level meant prices moved up to the previous support level now acting as resistance. Price is currently trapped between these levels. This may be temporary as prices seem to want to bounce more to least close the last major price gap. ➤ I added a long NASDAQ position. It is acting stronger than most indices having not broken the yearly low. I still hold positions in DAX and EUSTX50 . My exposure is +60%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Looking for further bounce to relieve extreme oversold conditions.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
US30 28th SEPTEMBER 2022Wall Street is increasingly concerned that the Fed's six-month inflation fight will push the economy into recession. The recent selloff seems to be the catalyst, including the US central bank (Federal Reserve/The Fed) being aggressive to raise interest rates. Finally shaking up the currency market. With the dollar overvalued in recent weeks, market participants are likely to avoid the risk of a correction by moving into large companies that are likely to survive a recession. US30 23rd AUGUST 2022
OANDA:US30USD
by DNP-FX
The Last Defence III, 28th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ No prize for those of you who guessed the title of today's update. It's growing a bit tiresome. As in previous days, prices opened higher and ended lower. As suspected, with VIX moving higher, S&P500 set a new yearly low in the process but was able to close above the support level. ➤ This tiresome behaviour may bring about some Bullish respite. As prices have continually tried to break the support without any convincing level of success. ➤ Further clues for a bullish bounce comes from my long/short equity trading. I trade the components of the Dow30 (DJIA). Some of these stocks are intensely oversold and I entered a long position in one stock. ➤ I also entered small long positions in DAX and EUSTX50. My exposure is +40%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I have dipped my toes in to test the waters. May Last Defence III reign long.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
DOW JONES Oversold but that alone not enough for a buy------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)broke and closed last week below its 1W MA200 (red trend-line), for the first time since the week of May 11 2020, a very bearish sign on its own. Based on what the index did on May 09 2022 after breaking the previou Support (Double Bottom), the price now targets the -0.236 and -0.5 Fibonacci extensions on the medium-term. Being however oversold with the 1D RSI hitting 24.85 yesterday for the first time since the COVID crash (March 12 2020), there is an equal probability of a short-term rebound or even a medium-term one if this is a temporary bottom like June 17. With signals on the higher and lower time-frames being mixed, the oversold RSI state isn't enough on its own to take the buy. It would be best to do so after a confirmation pattern. The two strongest confirmation signals at the moment are: 1) When the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross, which since December 07 2021 always delivered a short-term rally. 2) A closing above the 0.618 Fibonacci level (now at 31357). If you take those buys, you will have some ground behind them. Otherwise the are within the 0.618 and yesterday's lows gives a mixed sentiment. Below yesterday's lows, most likely we will see further strong selling, initially targeting the -0.236, as mentioned, at 28230. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
U
by TradingShot
The Last Defence II, 27th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Bulls are being tested for the second day. This time, prices were not supported at higher levels and finished the trading day near the lows. VIX leapt higher again. Things are looking pretty ominous. ➤ I don't know if it's good news or bad news but the daily trading volume is moderate. Although elevated it hasn't really spiked. A spike could signal big players absorbing the selling especially if prices didn't move much on the day. On the other hand, no spike could signal the sellers are not done selling. ➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I can see potential buying opportunities but I am waiting to for some sort of VIX contraction.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
1
The Last Defence, 26th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Crucial week ahead for the Bulls to defend the yearly lows. First defensive effort was mounted by the Bulls to finish Friday trade away from the daily low. Price gapped down below the 2nd last level of support. The close of the candle points to continued bearish behaviour in the very short-term. ➤ VIX spiked over 30 again. There is certainly panic selling. The question is if the panic is just starting or will it recede? Further panic will most certainly break the yearly lows. That may snowball. ➤ European markets like the DAX have already succumbed to new yearly lows. ➤ Since I theorised for the Bullish case in my last post, let's talk about the why there is no bottom in sight: ● Employment numbers are still relatively strong. ● Property prices are hovering at all time highs ● Lack of bankruptcies ● Strong US Dollar is creating havoc, Asian and EM currencies have collapsed below multi-decade lows. Currency intervention by Japan and Korea most recently. ● Interest rates moving upwards fast in an unconstrained manner ➤ Some of these factors are starting to jolt a panic response. Others are yet to even show their hand. There are plenty of things that haven't even broken. Somethings need to break for a true bottom to form. ➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Still waiting on the sidelines. Eager to get back in the action but only the right time! 💯
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
IXIC, You may find this analysis helpful in future !Is this another bear market rally? or just we are at the early stages of new massive bull run? Since hitting 10565.14 low ( which was in 0.5 _ 0.618 Retracement zone of previous major rally from pandemic low to ATH ) , IXIC has started a promising rally for bulls. Is this low market's bottom? It might be, but lets review a contradictory yet valid scenario : First of all I should emphasize this proposed scenario is not a fact and is just a possibility . I have to repeat again : " when we are in world of Elliott waves we are dealing with possibilities not certainties ". As shown on the chart, Previous major decline from 16212.23 to 10565.14 can be labeled as impulsive 5 legs down going wave. Normally, we have a counter trend correction after an impulsive wave therefore, recent rally may be just a big counter trend correction bear market rally. Why I used normally ? Since there are some alternatives for this scenario which are beyond scope of this publication . Please remember : " Possibility vs Certainty " Mentioned five legs down going impulsive wave can be labeled as wave 1 or A which implies for a counter trend correction as wave 2 or B . Strong resistance zone formed by 0.5 and 0.618 Retracement levels has been shown on the chart. This zone is also a valid supply/demand zone. In addition, my private Gann Box analysis confirms this zone as a strong resistance ( I excluded Gann Box from the chart to keep it as clean as possible). 200, 100 and 50 weeks moving averages have been also shown on the chart. As we see, 200 weeks moving average which supported the market at pandemic low was market savior one more time at last major low. 100 and 50 weeks MA s are waiting for the index at our proposed resistance zone. This makes our resistance zone even stronger. If true, Worst has yet to come as wave 3 or C. If we are going to see wave 3 then may god bless the market. Please note this is not to frighten anyone especially bulls or giving hope to bears. This is just an analysis which shows a valid possible scenario and I can strongly recommend you to keep this scenario in mind. I Hope this analysis to be helpful and wish you all the best.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by SaeedSajedi
19
Double Bottom? 23rd Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ There's very little insight I can provide with the current price action. VIX is stuck at elevated levels and not moving anywhere. Price is moving lower to the support levels. If you weren't already in a short trade, it isn't the best place to start. If you are looking to buy, prices could continue to move lower. 🤷‍♀️ Risk to reward for new trades are probably in no one's favour. ➤ So, let's instead theorise about a Bullish case at this moment in time. ● War in Ukraine is further entrenched with more troops deployed by Russia. The West will counter. ● Interest rates are going to rise further to 4% or more ● Demand destruction is everywhere. Jobs being lost, company profits falling, consumers tightening. We are looking at a hard landing. ● China is dealing with Covid lockdown fatigue and real estate woes ➤ With all these ugly headlines, S&P500 is still holding above the 17th June low. Has the market sufficiently priced in these outcomes? ➤ On the technicals: You could argue that the leg down from15th Aug is a much less aggressive move than the April down leg. It's a gentler slide in prices. VIX is reflective of this by being stuck at a comparatively lower level. ➤ Given these conditions continue to hold, price could form a classic double-bottom and a major bullish move is not far off in the distant future. ➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Still waiting on the sidelines. Eager to get back in the action but only the right time! 💯
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
1
It Broke Down, 22nd Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities decided break down but that's not what I'm concerned about. It's the VIX...has it literally broken down❓ 🛠 Apart from spiking to the panic level to 30 (as I define it), it did very little on a big down day. ➤ Perhaps VIX does make sense within the context of the price action. As prices have moved consistently lower, VIX has been elevating in a steady manner and just touched panic levels post FOMC announcement. If we look at the 3 big bearish candles since the 16th August peak, today's candle was the smallest. This contraction in the size of the candle is probably the only good news for the Bulls and is preventing a huge panic move (so far). ➤ We should also note that the recent price gap was essentially closed due to a price spike...I'll stop with the Gap jokes too. ➤ I stayed on the sidelines and look to do so a bit longer given VIX's unconvincing behaviour. ➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Price is heading toward support. Will the buyer step in?
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
3
No Persons Land, 21st Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Prices held above the immediate lows but overall still drifting lower. It is stuck in between support and resistance zones. This is fitting behaviour given the USD Fed Interest Rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. ➤ VIX is not giving much away. Still trading below the recent peak but at elevated levels. ➤ Market makers and intra-day traders must be enjoying the erratic market movements. Prices haven't really gone anywhere these couple of days but volatility is high. I'm happy to stay on the sidelines and avoid being whipsawed. ➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Fed decision will not only decide on the level of interest rates but also the next level prices will move: to support or resistance.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Bitcoin Price Action vs. Fed Announcements & US Dollar StrengthThis is an analysis of Bitcoin's price action before and after Fed announcements on the daily time frame and the affect the US Dollar index has had on the markets. Since Bitcoin hit its all-time high in November 2021, the growing strength of the US Dollar has put a relentless downward pressure on global markets and currencies (and Bitcoin/Dow Jones/Precious Metals were no exception). Every time BTC dumped since the $69k high, it dumped hard. 50% from Dec-Jan and again in Apr-June. The months between then often ended where they started before the next fed announcement. Which leads us to the announcement tomorrow where the Fed is expected to raise rates 75bps (80-90%) up to 100bps (10-20%). This could cause the DXY to continue to rise and put further pressure on the markets sending them to new lows. However, I will say that Bitcoin has started to fight the inverse relationship it has had with DXY and I can see the bullish divergence forming. If this is a local top for the DXY, we should see a temporary opportunity for a relief bounce, but the key word should be temporary. As a result, I have taken a very defensive position either in USD searching for oversold conditions in which to make a short-term scalp. Trade carefully friends!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by jpbrown1023
DOW JONES The dominant short-term Channel. What it shows next.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is currently pulling-back as yesterday's rebound has failed so far to break the Channel's median. That is the Channel Down, the dominant pattern, that the index has been trading in since the August 16 High. As you see that middle trend-line has been holding a key role within this pattern. The current price action resembles the accumulation mini phase of September 02 - 07, where the price was supported on a Lower Lows line that eventually pushed it above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Channel's middle, to rise to the top of the Channel, eventually getting rejected on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). With the 4H MACD on a Bullish Cross, we are expecting Dow to reach 31700 and make a new Lower High within the Channel Down within a 1 week horizon. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
3
Feeling the Gap, 20th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 📉 GAPs are unfashionable and it tends to get closed. Well, that gap has almost closed and I'm not FEELING great! ➤ Big reversal in markets as equities bounced after once again gapping lower at open. Price is heading back to the support level (that should be re-labeled as resistance). ➤ I had strong convictions that the gap will be filled. Despite that, I quit my long positions at a loss. This was to protect capital as I saw the possibility of a binary outcome: either VIX would explode higher or collapse lower. I don't like binary outcomes despite being only 40% wrong most of the time! ➤ As a result, I'll be watching from the sidelines until after the Fed rate decision on Wednesday. I'll get over the loss by then. ➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Looking forward to the next profitable trade opportunity and learning from another loss.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
2
Bounce? 16th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Price again held in the support zone with VIX also contracting from the short-term peak. I'm looking at this as a reply of mid-May. The difference is that VIX was in the panic zone back in May and the move down prior to the bounce was much longer in duration. Maybe I should call it a "mini-mid-May" - MMM. If I am correct I hope the resulting bounce is not mini-sized. ➤ Given the above view, I took profits on the remainder of my short US index positions and switched to a max. conviction long in S&P500, DJIA and NASDAQ. I still hold small shorts in DAX and EUSTX50 given their different price structure. ➤ My overall exposure shifted to +100%. A moderate level of conviction at a portfolio level. The maximum exposure is +/- 200%, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I'm looking for a bounce. Prices may hesitate prior to a bounce and may at times look like falling further. I will not hesitate to pull the pin on my position if prices do break down.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro