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Follow through US30 analysis against 2008 crashCould it be that market cycles are shorter now, versus back then in 2008? Also, we probably have more participants in the market now compared to prior years. More investors, traders as it has become more accessible. More people learnt from 2008 crash to buy the dips on indexes like the S&P as there is a very high probability of it only going higher. But, here's what I mapped out on the 1D chart from 2008 crash versus the 1D chart now. Could we be in a period of consolidation at point 6? or are we only at the tail end of point 5? Could market take a turn for the worse with recession? Or are all the scares just not coming through in numbers? Indeed, we came close to a key level of pre-covid highs. But, I would still be calling for sells based on technical analysis, but will have to wait for confirmation. There is also a probability for continued upside.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by geneAnalytics
1
DOW JONES attempting a 1D MA50 break-outDow Jones (DJI) reversed last week's pull-back and is on a nearly perfect repeat of the last rebound to the top of the long-term Channel Down in an attempt to price a new Lower High. As most recently mentioned 3 weeks ago on our idea below, the Channel had already formed its short-term bottom: At the moment, based also on the 1D RSI fractals, it appears that we'll break the 1D MA50 and aim for at least 32800 as a Lower High with a more optimistic estimate on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (33300). The 1W MA200 (red trend-line) is right below the Channel Down and as we've mentioned numerous times on our Channel is the long-term market Support. Breach of that level with a weekly candle closing should immediately test the -0.236 Fib extension and then pursue lower targets on the weekly from there. If that happens we'll follow up with extensive updates. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ULong
by TradingShot
1
US30 Potential bearish drop | 7th July 2022On the H4, with price expected to reverse off the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support at 30422 where the horizontal swing low support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement are from our 1st resistance at 31216 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance and head for 2nd resistance at 31866 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by FXCM
Looking for temporary relief at trend support DOW30DOW30 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 30647 (stop at 30282) The trend of higher lows is located at 30400. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. A weaker opening is expected to challenge bullish resolve. Prices expected to stall near trend line support. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Our profit targets will be 31586 and 31800 Resistance: 31600 / 33300 / 35300 Support: 30600 / 29000 / 26000 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
OANDA:US30USDLong
by OANDA
DOW JONES repeating the doom fractal of 2008??This analysis on the 1W time-frame illustrates the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) on the log scale. The emphasis is on the comparison of this year's correction with the Subprime Mortgage Crisis that started after the October 2007 peak and bottomed in March 2009. As you see so far this year's correction has been following the fractal extremely closely. Emphasis is given on the fact that at the moment we seem to be at the point where the price is rebounding after near contact with the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) similar to March 2008. If we get a rejection on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) by the end of the Summer, then the fractal will get most likely confirmed and a 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross after a break below the 1W MA200, can initiate the final and most aggressive part of the index collapse. That may take us to levels not see since early 2016. Now of course that comparison alone can't form any trading strategies but could be used as a long-term benchmark for entering/ exiting on time. Even the 1W RSI sequences are so far identical as the sentiment of realism vs denial certainly seems to be in the early 2008 levels. Food for though for sure. What's your opinion? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DJI
by TradingShot
6
DOW JONES rejected before the 1D MA50. Double Bottom possible.The Dow Jones index (DJI) has had a strong red 1D candle yesterday right before attempting a test of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the short-term Resistance. As you see the long-term pattern has been a Channel Down since the January 05 high. This formation has enabled us to accurately identify and trade the Highs and Lows as you can see from the two most recent analyses below: With some adjustments made, we can now see just how closely the recent short-term rebound follows the previous Lower Low formation on February 24. That sequence had a rejection before a 1D MA50 test and eventually made a Double Bottom before the rally to the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down started. As a result it is possible to see this 1 week correction stop near 29680 and then rebound towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. The 1W MA200 (red trend-line) is right below the Channel Down and as we've mentioned numerous times on our Channel is the long-term market Support. Breach of that level with a weekly candle closing should immediately test the -0.236 Fib extension and then pursue lower targets on the weekly from there. If that happens we'll follow up with extensive updates. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U
by TradingShot
DOW - YM Ketchup28.2K and 24K await... it's simply a matter of time. Industrials for the Post Industrial Co-Dependent Economy are being Sold as if there is no tomorrow... Nothing like a solid lift to re-enter the Trend, which is Down. Counter-Trends are nasty Bed Fellows. 3M, Dow, and a great many of the glory days Equities are being dumped on the heads of Ma n' Pa. Dividend-paying Junk Co frankly makes sense for them... for now. CD Rates did not decline in the most recent TNX Pullback. Banks are now more hated than ever. Brokers are in the lead, though as Passives are frankly the new Index Funds of the early 2000s - CLick this and that, whammy, Ron Burgundy would be proud. Stay Classy INDU. Stay Classy.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
DOW JONES The Buy/Sell correlation with Unemployment & InflationThis is a simple yet extremely informative analysis of the Dow Jones (DJI) index on how its multi-year correlation with the Unemployment Rate (black trend-line) and the Inflation Rate (grey trend-line) provide the ultimate Entry/ Exit signals on the long-term. The blue trend-line is Dow's 1M MA50 and the green is the 1M MA100. As you see, with the sample starting in 1987, every time the Unemployment is Low while Inflation is high, the stock market peaks and starts declining. Similarly, when the Unemployment is high while Inflation is low, the stock market bottoms out and starts recovering. Notably, this correlation even stood right during the 2020 COVID crash where the shift happened extremely fast, with unemployment being low + inflation high just before the crash and right after the unemployment spiked (following the lockdowns) while inflation hit a 5 year bottom and started rising after the stimulus started kicking in. That led to the 2022 stock market correction on massive inflation but with unemployment (still) near pre-COVID lows. According to the model that was a Sell Signal on stocks and we see how it was accurate yet again. The key now is the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). During the previous three corrections (COVID 2020, Mortgage Crisis 2008, DotCom Crisis 2001), the market broke below the 1M MA50. The exception was the October 1987 crash (Black Monday), where the sharp crash reached exactly the 1M MA50 and rebounded. In the three corrections that did break below it though, the index always reached the 1M MA100 (green trend-line). So a solid long-term sell signal from now on would be if the price breaks the 1M MA50 with a target on the 1M MA100. If by that time inflation bottoms out and starts reversing while the unemployment rate is much higher, we can start considering buying stocks again on a multi-year horizon. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DJI
by TradingShot
21
DOW JONES Critical Channel bottom test.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Down since its All Time High on January 04 2022. It is the very same Channel on which we based the accurate sell call 10 days ago as the price failed to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for more than a week: Right now the index broke below the previous Support and made a new Low. In fact it is exactly on the Lower Lows trend-line of the Channel. The 1W MA200 (red trend-line) is at 29300 but if it closes a 1D candle below the Lower Lows trend-line, it will most likely break below the 1W MA200 as well and reach the -0.236 Fibonacci extension around 28770. Until that happens, we have to follow the accurate long-term pattern and go on a tight SL buy towards the Lower Highs (top) trend-line around 33000. The 1D RSI is just above the oversol 30.00 level which has worked as a buy entry for many months. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U
by TradingShot
3
US30 Market Crash Incoming soonI'm not a financial advisor and these are only my pure thoughts about what US30 will do soon. This is my prediction for the US stock market crash that I think will happen in the next weeks to months this year. Some people say this crash will be the biggest of all time, I think is possible. My estimation is a crash of a minimum of 25-30%. The best chances are to happen in the mid of the year between july and September. Usually in this range, people go on holiday, and buying habits change (more spending on transportation, local attractions, expensive food, etc) which can lead to imbalance that can lead to a market crash when added the actual fear of a market crash in calculations.
UShort
by dragosacorex
NASDAQ: Moving Below EMA 200, Bearish Trend Doesn't Over Yet?Hello Fellow U.S. Investor/Trader, Here's a Technical outlook of NASDAQ! Support our content by smashing the like and follow button, you also can share your opinion in the comment section below. NASDAQ is forming the head and shoulder pattern near the EMA200 line. Furthermore, The MACD indicator created a death cross, which confirmed a potential downside momentum to the target area. The Outlook will be active after the price hits the confirmation line. *All the explanations are presented on the chart* The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/resistance area. "Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put Long or Short Position on the NASDAQ Index"
UShort
by financialfreedomgoals101
2
DOW JONES Consolidating below the 1D MA50 for a weekDow Jones (DJI) eventually rebounded at the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of its long-term Channel Down, since our last analysis that indicated a sold R/R ratio for going long: Since the end of May though, the index has failed just before a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test and turned sideways below that level. This is similar to the last Lower High formation on the Channel Down, as shown on the previous analysis. Technically, as long as the price remains below the Lower Highs trend-line, it is a sell (on a tight SL of course) opportunity towards the 30650 Support and if that breaks, towards the -0.236 Fibonacci extension around 29500. Even in the event of a break-out, we still can't call a long-term bullish reversal as the range within roughly 34150 - 35540 is a Neutral Zone (we can apply tight scalping strategies there) as late March - late April showed. Only with a weekly candle close above the 35875 Resistance, we can assume that Dow has resumed its long-term bullish trend. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U
by TradingShot
5
How we made 7.26% in May with 63% win rate while markets fell Last month when markets took a beating, we were able to make 4% within 11 days of trading using trading view to help track our trades. The month of May was a really volatile month and it took some courage to get back to where we are today. As you can see from our equity curve, we were down about 7% midway through the month and staring down a gun barrel. teenfxtrader.wordpress.com Here are some very important lessons that we learnt from our trading from the month of May. 1) Do not get into markets that you don't understand before testing them out thoroughly. - We started getting into indexes and especially the JPN225. What we didn't realize is that this pair moves really fast and can either wipe you out and make you lots of money. We lost 4% on the first trade but made 12% on the next. Still not sure whether we should trade this but if a good opportunity comes up why not? Just keep your positions super small. 2) Risk control is so important even if you are losing - - It is so easy to lose your marbles when you are down 7% in the first 15 days. However we need to accept that losing trades will happen and the only way you can control it is by not risking too much. Your account will ebb and flow. Some weeks are just flat. Sometimes you can have a quarter where you are totally flat and I am sure that will happen for us soon as well. 3) Winning percentages means nothing - We have always been taught in school that you are a loser if you do not get 80% and above. In trading, losing 40% of your trades is still okay as long as you lose with dignity. This month we lost 37% of our trades but yet made 7.26% by holding on to our winners. Where do we see the market going in June 2022? The past 2 weeks has been bullish. This is not the end of the market crash unfortunately. It is call a bear rally or a bull trap and we are likely to see the markets being pushed down to the previous lows. We still believe the target for DJIA is 26,000 and the S&P will reach 3600 within the next 3-4 months. In the meantime, we plan to take small trades to help us grow our equity as we have done in the last 45 days. In the meantime, we are looking at a sell of JPN225 at the level marked out but it is an uptrend so we may go long until this price is reached for the sell. Good luck!
BLACKBULL:JPN225Short
by JD_TeenTrader
DJI potential for rise! | 2nd June 2022On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our 1st support at 32814 where the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement is to our 1st resistance at 33463 in line with the swing high resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by FXCM
DOW JONES 1 month target at 33170 unless the Low breaks.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Down throughout this whole 2022 correction. Friday's low along with the 1D RSI sequence, resemble the bottom fractal of the last Lower Low within the Channel Down on March 08. The index rebounded to just above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at the time to price the Lower High. Currently the 0.618 Fib is around 33670. That is our target on a 1 month horizon, unless Friday's low breaks, in which case we will sell hedge it to the -0.236 Fib extension at 29500. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ULong
by TradingShot
4
DOW JONES 19th MAY 2022Rising inflation, conflict in Ukraine, prolonged supply chain disruptions, pandemic-related lockdowns in China, and monetary policy tightening by the central bank have weighed on financial markets recently, fueling concerns about a global economic slowdown. Wall Street ended sharply lower Wednesday, with Target Corp shares losing about a quarter of their market value. Highlights concerns about the United States (US) economy after retailers became the latest victims of a price spike. On Wednesday the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.57% to 31,490. Correction target : 33,144. Price may be lower if it breaks below the support area.
FOREXCOM:US30Long
by DNP-FX