Am I Crazy to Expect DJIA to Drop by 8000 points Long Term?Markets are strong and the outlook currently is very bullish. So anyone who thinks that markts will drop significantly in the mid to long term would be laughed at right?
But i just cant help but notice that markets are way too high at the moment. everything seems pretty over valued - although market analysts will say the valuations are just about at the right level if not still low.
Could all these excellent company earnings be transitory, thus skewing the markets?
or perhaps theres something more to come, such as another wave of teh pandemic that could pull the markets down.
Whilst we are yet to see what it could be... my better judgement of technical alalysis tells me we could see a big correction in the markets over the long term.
Im aiming for around 26,000 for teh DJIA. Time will tell.
Djia
DOW JONES Top of the Channel Up. Pull-back possible.It's been a while since I updated my Dow Jones thesis. The most recent one (Oct 13) was on the short-term 4H time-frame, where I identified a buy signal on this Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern:
The longer-term one though was last updated on October 1 and this is where I come back to today as well:
As you see, the bounce on the 1D MA200 gave a perfect bottom buy signal and the 35900 target has been achieved. Even though the long-term target is the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (36,450), the price is trading very close to the Channel Up with the 1D RSI on Lower Highs. This RSI formation has been recently seen on tops with the price correcting afterwards to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). On this index, it is best to wait for such contact before targeting the eventual 1.382 Fib extension.
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DOW JONES Buy SignalPattern: Inverse Head and Shoulders on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price is close to completing the Right Shoulder and is on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
Target: 34700 which is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level just below the Lower Highs trend-line.
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$VIX - Key Levels and Analysis - Another View - Daily Timeframe$VIX - Key Levels and Analysis - Another View - Daily Timeframe
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I posted a VIX study earlier today on the 1W timeframe (it’s the post directly before this)
Now bringing it down to the Daily chart - another bearish MA crossover. Always a deep spike when these averages cross. YIKES…
I hate being THIS bearish… but I do not think is is good.
Trade carefully guys. I personally love volatility, but just know your limits - it could get bumpy
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I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you.
My average is in Grey
Red = Resistance
Green = Support
Blue = trendlines
If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can.
Have fun, y’all!!
DJIA (Wall Street) sees its worst month of the year – where to nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA / Wall Street) finished the month of September trading down -4.3%, its largest 1-month decline of the year and more than twice the -2.0% drop that it saw in January.
So where does that leave the most popular US index?
In a word: Adrift .
After rising consistently from last November through this September, the Dow has now fallen out of its 10-month bullish channel. In fact, despite unprecedented levels fiscal and monetary stimulus from US policymakers, the index is now unchanged since mid-April.
Moving forward, the most relevant technical structure to watch will be the sideways range between support near 33,700 and resistance up at 35,500. Though the current technical view bias is neutral, a break below the bottom of this rectangle and the rising 200-day EMA near 33,250 would open the door for a deeper retracement 31,000 or even 30,000 next, while a bullish breakout above 35,500 would signal the resumption of the longer-term uptrend.
DOW JONES hit 1DMA200 for the 1st time since the US elections!Dow Jones is trading within a Channel Up that reached today its Higher Lows trend-line (bottom). But perhaps the most important development is that in doing so, it hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since October 30 2020 (the U.S. elections)! That alone is a strong buy signal itself but consider also the following:
* The RSI bounced on the 30.000 level on September 20 which has marked price bottoms on June 18 2021, October 29 2020 (in the post COVID crash era). Also it has been rising since on Higher Lows.
* The pattern resembles the June - October 2020 Channel Up. The price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), 1D MA100 and 1D MA200 in the same order and manner.
Based on the Fibonacci extension model, I am setting a target at 35900 by late October - early November.
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DOW JONES near the 1D MA200/ first time since October 2020!Dow Jones is trading within a Channel Up that has recently broken below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). This is the first time in two months that is giving the first strong buy signals:
* The RSI is near the 30.000 level which has marked price bottoms on June 18 2021, October 29 2020 (in the post COVID crash era).
* The price is approaching the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with the last contact dating back to October 30 2020 (the line held and issued an aggressive rally post US-elections).
* The pattern resembles the June - October 2020 Channel Up. The price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), 1D MA100 and 1D MA200 in the same order and manner.
Naturally the market is waiting for Fed's confirmation tomorrow before it engages aggressively on high volume but this is the time technically to start considering a buy entry again. Based on the Fibonacci extension model, a target of 35900 seems very plausible.
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DOW sitting on support. The DOW hit all time highs last month and since then has been consolidating its gains. More importantly, the index broke the ascending trend line from the Covid lows back in June. However, the index didn't turn bearish at that point, we grinding higher and consolidated all summer. Today, the Index is parked on another ascending trend line since February 2021. Arguably it is this years "trend." We feel it is important to start monitoring for near term weakness especially as the RSI points lower as it has been divergent since the spring.
US30 H4 - Potential BUYSSimple price action:
- Looking for a retest of Support before going LONG
- 35000 is a significant area with multiple retests
- Gap at the 35450 area needs to be filled
Dow: Aaaaand Action! 📽📽📽The Dow Jones has a hard time pushing for an offensive to overcome the resistance at 35547 points. However, sooner or later we see the course moving above that resistance and gradually build up new all-time highs until the area around 37607 points is reached.
Good times coming!
was that the top? lets speculate! dow to gold ratio tracking all 3 major indices priced in gold, we can start to speculate where the dip could happen. dow to gold seems to be the worst of the three, possible dragged by energy and financials. Markings show a negative divergence in rsi vs the price action. Of course speculation on reversals is stupid and risky, but I still enjoy this hobby :D
DOW JONES pattern to 36000Pattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price made a rebound on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Target: 35900 lower risk (just below the Higher Highs trend-line) or 36500 higher risk (a roughly +5.50% extension top from the MA100 low).
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Lines in the sand for DollarIt seems a timely choice to update the dollar chart. Extending the characteristic positioning in the previous euro chart, seems to me to be more in accordance with the needs of 93.75 - 94.00 holding and acting as a reliable guardian for the remainder of August and September, but the threat to an attack higher is real.
In the DXY chart, buyers will need to make good use of the whitespace above as an attacking battlefield. Things are quite different in the ladder between 95-96, where we are talking of the complex change in nature from corrective to impulsive; in fact we must consider both possibilities as valid in their characteristics
From a geopolitical risk perspective, the task of sellers defending the 94 handle is also complex, buyers can see the problem of restraint they are having and could aggressively rush to USD, moving DXY higher with a hint of more risk (Afghanistan, Taiwan etc).
With all that said, the long term structural decline of the West looks underway with migration Eastward. This will be a multi year/decade long process as long as Dems are at the helm. My impression is as follows; we are trading towards the top end of the range, here actively looking for opps to trade 93.7x/94.0x => 90.6x. This C leg can extend as high as 95.4x and still be valid. Invalidation and reassessment of the view will only be required above 96.3x.