DJI early signs of bear market.The price of the DJI is not following anymore the primary upward trend line that began in march 2020, neither the channel line. Is not able to make new higher highs and there is a shooting star in the top of the advance. There is been a 93% upward move since march 2020, which is a record upward move in such a short period of time. Volume is heavier on downward moves than upward moves, there is a volume and price divergence. Also the price is moving sideways, all of this is suggesting that distribution may be happening already.
Djia
🌐 FX MORNING MEETING: Let's prepare for the trading day June 30Hi traders, here is our FX Morning Meeting for June 30.
This market overview will help you find market opportunities where they actually exist ("Trades of the Day section"), based on a number of fundamental, intermarket, and sentiment signals.
Leave us a comment what you want to trade today!
🌐 MORNING MEETING - JUNE 30
🔴 GLOBAL MARKETS (main chart)
Morning traders, global markets remain in a cautious mode ahead of the US NFP release and holiday ("event risks").
This has supported safe havens so far and put selling pressure on risk assets.
Asian markets closed mixed/unchanged, while European markets entered a strong downtrend this morning.
🔴 US DOLLAR INDEX
Looking at the USDx, the currency traded higher today despite slightly lower US yields, likely fueled by risk-off flows. The 92.40 resistance remains a strong obstacle to the upside, but we could see additional strength in the currency during the day.
🔴 CURRENCY STRENGTH
Our currency strength index shows a typical risk-off pattern: JPY and USD are among the strongest (together with GBP), while CAD, AUD, and NZD are the weakest currencies so far.
🔴 ECONOMIC CALENDAR
The economic calendar is packed with reports today, although few of them will have market-moving potential.
China PMIs came in weaker than expected (negative for AUD).
EUR CPI Flash Estimate (an early reading of eurozone inflation) matched forecasts (1.9%).
Upcoming events to follow:
- US ADP NFP Change (expected 555k)
- US Chicago PMI (expected 70.2)
- US Pending Home Sales (an important leading indicator, expected -1.1%)
🔴 TRADES OF THE DAY (JUNE 30)
- We hold to our short AUD/USD and AUD/JPY trades (Take-Profit hit, remaining position at Breakeven)
- Today's trade setups are similar to yesterday's: Long safe-havens (USD, JPY) and short high-beta risk currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD).
🌐 MORNING MEETING: Pre-NY Market Preview, June 29Morning traders! Here is our morning meeting ahead of the NY open. Leave us a comment about what you want to trade today! Let's make this a constructive discussion for the trading day.
🔴 GLOBAL MARKETS (main chart)
Morning traders, Asian markets closed lower, including the Nikkei 225 which is down 0.80%, which is one of the reasons why the JPY has been performing exceptionally well this morning.
European markets are in the green so far, with the DAX leading the other indices (up 0.79%). The FTSE is the weakest among the major three European markets, but the traditionally high correlation between DAX and FTSE could lead to further strength in the latter.
🔴 USD INDEX
The US dollar edged higher this morning on a slight rebound in short-term US yields. The positive relationship has been established again, and the support at 91.50 is still a major obstacle to the downside.
To the upside, 92.40 remains the next hurdle.
🔴 COMMODITIES
Among commodities, copper is clear loser, down more than 2% in the last few days. Other comms also feel the pressure of a strengthening US dollar, including Brent crude.
Weak copper prices added to selling pressure in the AUD, which is one of the weakest currencies today.
🔴 CURRENCY STRENGTH
Looking at the individual currencies this morning, the JPY and USD are the top performers (lower Asian indices, risk-off, and the rebound in US yields), while AUD and NZD are the weakest (falling copper and commodities, one of the reasons).
🔴 TRADE PLAN FOR TODAY (JUNE 29)
- Long USD and JPY on pullbacks and short risk currencies (AUD and NZD).
Dow Jones: C’mon speed up! 👀👀👀As things stand right now, the Dow Jones is still indecisive in the sense that the bulls on this market were not strong enough to push for new all-time highs. Most importantly, the Dow needs to cross the resistance at 35000 points in order to show us that the following movement towards 36401 points is in full effect. Once this mark is reached, we face another correction before moving towards 37281 points.
Stay positive!
DOW JONES Is this a giant Bullish Flag?DJIA has been trading within a Channel Up since the U.S. elections last November. However since the May 10 Top, it has been trading under Lower Highs and Lower Lows which are the characteristics of a Channel Down.
Last time we had such pattern was the sequence before the U.S. elections, which turned out to be a giant Bullish Flag. The 1D RSI has bounced off the 1 year Support Zone, same as late October prior to the elections. Can this be a similar Bullish Flag? If yes then Dow Jones will aim at the 1.382 - 1.5 Fibonacci Zone.
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#bitcoin priced in the #dowjones #djia Elliot Wave TheoryThe problems underlying the mechanics of legacy are plain to see for anyone with an understanding of Blockchain DLT
Digital Property ownership with Transferability 24/7 is not available for stocks & bonds
With each passing day, this is getting glaringly obvious Wall Streets' days are numbered without a big reorganization from top to bottom.
Bitcoin and Cryptos are EXTREMELY disruptive
But of course, it will be a Bumpy Ride.
#HODL
#bitcoin scenario cast 6.19.21Slander is the signal
Risk off in legacy
Will they risk a debt bubble blow up?
No they inflate it away as always
Stimulus forever until enough people have migrated to debt-free money that the machinations of a central bank are no longer relevant to a mjority of the global pop
Its a process, that will likely take another 15 - 20 years
You guys are still early, but not as early as the middle of last decade obviously
do you want to arrive in 2025-27
and have been fudded out of your holdings?
#BITCOIN & #CRYPTOCURRENCY IS THE RELEASE VALVE FOR A PROPPED UP "RIGGED" LEGACY #FINANCIAL SYSTEM
You may have gotten off zero
but what about your loved ones - friends & family
Shilling is hard work to no coiners... but maybe showing them this chart will be a wake-up call?
Look out for them, as we are in a S curve adoption phase of Digital Ledger Technology
Sector early indicator? Yes, Banks often are.The Banking sector, a sub-sector of the Financial sector - here represented by NASDAQ Bank Index (BANK , in green) - often acts as an early indicator against the broader market (here represented by the DJIA in gray, and the NASDAQ in black)... falling from peaks: as early as from 1998, in Feb 2007, steadily declining from Jan 2011, continuing underperformance from July 2018, and in Dec 2019.
Sector early indicator? No: Health & Utilities, not usually.The Healthcare sector and Utilities sector - here represented by the S&P Health Care Index (S5HLTH, in blue) and Dow Jones Utility Average (DJU, in purple) - do not usually act as early indicators against the broader market (here represented by the DJIA in gray, and the NASDAQ in black)... except perhaps for DJU falling from a peak in Jan 2015, and in Dec 2017.
Sector early indicator? No: Natural Resources, not really.The Natural Resources sector - here represented by BHP (in green) and Rio Tinto (RIO, in orange) - does not generally act as an early indicator against the broader market (here represented by the DJIA in gray, and the NASDAQ in black)... only possibly during the fall in their share prices over Jul and Aug of 2018.
Sector early indicator? No, Consumer Staples, not that much.The Consumer Staples sector - here represented by Procter & Gamble (PG, in pink), Coca Cola (KO, in yellow) and PepsiCo (PEP, in purple) - are mostly not strong early indicators against the broader market (here represented by the DJIA in gray, and the NASDAQ in black)... KO & PEP fell from peaks in July 1998, then a period of over six months of weak underperforming prices from Dec 2014, a period of around two and a half months of weak underperforming prices from Aug 2017, then weak underperforming prices for KO & PEP during all of Aug 2018, and a period of around two and a half months of weak underperforming prices from mid Oct 2019.
Sector early indicator? Telecommunications - not much at all.The Telecommunications sector - here represented by AT&T (T, in teal) and Verizon (VZ, in pink), - does not often clearly act as an early indicator against the broader market (here represented by the DJIA in gray, and the NASDAQ in black)... falling from peaks in Jul 1999, then a prolonged period around two years of weak underperforming prices from 2013-2015, and then another prolonged period of around ten months of weak underperforming prices in 2017, and a period of around two months of weak underperforming prices from Nov 2019.
Sector early indicator? Media sector, only occasionally.The Media sector, a Consumer Discretionary sub-sector - here represented by Disney (DIS, in purple) and Comcast (CMACSA, in blue), - only occasionally act as an early indicator against the broader market (here represented by the DJIA in gray, and the NASDAQ in black)... falling from peaks: prior to the end of May 2007, prolonged 5 months of weak underperforming prices in 2017, a month and a half of weak underperforming prices around Nov 2019.
Sector early indicator? Retail sector - not much (but watch WMT)The general Retail Sector (as opposed to retailing of hardware home improvements by Home Depot and Lowes - studied in an earlier chart) - here represented by the VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (RTH, in green), and the mighty Walmart (WMT, in blue) - only occasionally (more often by WMT) acts as an early indicator against the broader market (here represented by the DJIA in gray, and the NASDAQ in black)... falling from peaks... WMT peaking on 29 Dec 1999, WMT falling from a peak in Jun 2007, WMT fading from a peak in Jan 2011, WMT in Jan 2015, WMT in Dec 2019.
Sector early indicator? Yes, Real Estate can be sometimes.The Real Estate sector - here represented by iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR, in orange), Simon Property Group (SPG, in purple), Equity Residential (EQR, in red), - can sometimes act as an early indicator against the broader market (here represented by the DJIA in gray, and the NASDAQ in black)... falling from peaks in 1998, Feb 2007, Mar 2015, Nov 2017.
DOW JONES touched the 1D MA50. Time to rebound?Dow Jones is trading within a wide Channel Up on the 1D time-frame since the November U.S. elections break-out. Applying the Fibonacci Channel levels really gives this a better perspective.
Yesterday the price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As you see every contact within the 1D MA50 since January has been a buy opportunity. So far even when the 1D MA50 breaks slightly, the price never goes below the Ichimoku Cloud. Yesterday we had a hit both on the 1D MA50 and the Ichimoku. I believe that should be enough to initiate a rebound within the current phase of the Channel Up.
The question is, will that be like the March 04 rebound which broke above that Channel and took the index to the higher Fibonacci levels? What do you think?
** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
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DJI (& certain sectors) falling ovr aftr May volatility stressesDow DJIA (& certain sectors - but not yet the NASDAQ) falling over in June after May VIX volatility stresses, and diverging from a strongly rising IXIC Index (NASDAQ)... Sectors shown are Transportation, Finance, Consumer Staples and Natural Resources.
Dow Jones Transportation Signal Market Sell Off?The Dow Jones Transportation index usually tops and reverses prior to the Dow or S&P. The Transportation index has also fell below its support line while the Dow is in the apex of a bearish rising wedge pattern. Will the Fed save the markets again or will Wall Street finally meet reality? If the Fed didn't exist this would be the easiest short play.. I still think a pullback or consolidation is extremely likely