Djia
DOW JONES pattern to 36000Pattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price made a rebound on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Target: 35900 lower risk (just below the Higher Highs trend-line) or 36500 higher risk (a roughly +5.50% extension top from the MA100 low).
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Lines in the sand for DollarIt seems a timely choice to update the dollar chart. Extending the characteristic positioning in the previous euro chart, seems to me to be more in accordance with the needs of 93.75 - 94.00 holding and acting as a reliable guardian for the remainder of August and September, but the threat to an attack higher is real.
In the DXY chart, buyers will need to make good use of the whitespace above as an attacking battlefield. Things are quite different in the ladder between 95-96, where we are talking of the complex change in nature from corrective to impulsive; in fact we must consider both possibilities as valid in their characteristics
From a geopolitical risk perspective, the task of sellers defending the 94 handle is also complex, buyers can see the problem of restraint they are having and could aggressively rush to USD, moving DXY higher with a hint of more risk (Afghanistan, Taiwan etc).
With all that said, the long term structural decline of the West looks underway with migration Eastward. This will be a multi year/decade long process as long as Dems are at the helm. My impression is as follows; we are trading towards the top end of the range, here actively looking for opps to trade 93.7x/94.0x => 90.6x. This C leg can extend as high as 95.4x and still be valid. Invalidation and reassessment of the view will only be required above 96.3x.
Dow: Turnaround Ahead! 🤠🤠🤠We interpret the current downtrend of the Dow Jones as a temporary correction. The turnaround area should be around 34358 points, which we are about to reach. However, there is still plenty of room on the downside. In total, the Dow should fall to 33623 points at max. Below that line, we will face bigger corrective patterns.
Waiting is key!
Weekly Market Wrap (13th August 2021)This is weekly Market Wrap. Here readers can view price of particular securities at market close ending week 13th August 2021.
Forex (13th August 2021):
EURUSD – Close price = 1.17949 USD
EURAUD – Close price = 1.59998 AUD
EURCAD – Close price = 1.47591 CAD
EURGBP – Close price = 0.84989 GBP
USDCAD – Close price = 1.25135 CAD
USDGBP – Close price = 0.72108 GBP
Commodities (13th August 2021):
Gold (XAUUSD) – Close price = 1779.900 USD
Silver (XAGUSD) – Close price = 23.75 USD
WTI oil (USOIL) – Close price = 67.93 USD
Brent oil (UKOIL) – Close price = 70.22 USD
Indices (13th August 2021):
Nasdaq (NDX) – Close price = 15136.68 USD
SP500 (SP500) – Close price = 4460.83 USD
DJIA (DJI) – Close price = 35515.39 USD
DAX (DAX) – Close price = 15977.440 EUR
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
DOW JONES may need to hit the 4H MA200 to go higherPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy if the price hits the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as it is the most optimal buy signal in the past 2 months.
Target: 36400 (the 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
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Us30 vs Btc ???Basic Supply n demand
My Original strategy at work hmu
US30 showing bullish potential i guess all that bitcoin
Inflation talk n investor fears was all gibberish
Dow 35k! 🏆Although the Dow breaks the record mark of 35k the bulls are still weary to entrench themselves above this historic mark. Given the sideways movements over the last week, our primary expectation is a setback to the 34200 area. There we expect support and a turnaround to new all time highs. We are looking to go long at around 34200.
What’s your take! Happy Monday!
DOW JONES can rally on this Inverse Head & ShouldersPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price is about to complete an Inverse Head and Shoulders within the Channel, similar to January/ February.
Target: 36450 (the 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
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Expecting a breakout to the upside in the Dow Dow's been consolidating in a rectangle pattern for a few weeks. I like DIA call options going out to June/July or Dow Jones futures. I'm expecting a breakout soon based on this week's price action.
A break below would trigger a short, but I view that as a low probability
How many tech stocks do you own ?Looking at a bigger picture, we can see that of the 3 indices, the Nasdaq index soar the highest after the March 20 sudden fall. SPX500 and DJIA were pretty decent in its recovery , at least fairly consistent.
In today's digital world, we are talking about digitising the mom and pop shop concept (see how strong E commerce growth has been globally) and automation in industrial and material sectors.
It is no longer an exaggeration to say people of all ages cannot live without the online world !
Read articles here , here and here
Then compare the constant war that US and China have over the tech industry - Huawei being the classic case. It is said that China is now no longer a copycat like before but an innovator in the tech industry worldwide. The Government is also spending lots of money to boost this industry.
Not forgetting Covid-19 - is it getting better or worse now , on average ? SG has just returned back to dining from 5 to 2 due to a new recent cluster case. Malaysia and Indonesia along with other countries like India are facing staggering number of cases per day. Their healthcare system is at the brink of COLLAPSE , overworked , underpaid medical staff working long hours and poor distribution of vaccines plus insufficient education on the need to wear masks in some areas.
Connecting this dot, will travel and tourism business return anytime soon? Closely related are the hospitality industry like hotels, cruises, amusement parks, cinemas, entertainment industries - all will be hit hard. Is the government going to continue dig into its depleting coffer to support these industries ? Many companies will be forced to close shop and call it a day while others hang on a tight budget hoping to last another better day !
But it is not all gloom and doom if you know where to find the gems ! I will be sharing more in the next few posts .
Bearish Divergencenot financial advice. all in the chart. this ship is sinking. everything bubble is popping
Nasdaq Bull Market Over? Near perfect symmetry says soNo one will read this which is a shame as the Super Cycle wave relationships are as close to perfect as possible; meeting all of the Elliott Wave Theory standard fib relationship criteria. Everyone is calling a top soon, but I don't think they fully understand the length of correction we're likely entering.
After today's price action, super cycle wave 5 is now 1.6178x the length of Wave 1 (if you don't know why this is important/significant, you should research to find out -- it'll blow your mind). Wave 3 still remains at 1.6883 of wave 1. Initial retrace target of wave 2 is to the 0.382 fib retracement at 9195.83. If this level breaks, then we are open to hit 5705.10 (this might be getting a little ahead of ourselves, but fib levels are well respected in this market). This full 5 wave super cycle was ~2440 weeks, so a compromise on fibonnaci time (0.382) proportionality means it may be 932 weeks until we see an end to wave 2.
This almost seems ridiculous to talk about and project like this, but all cycles on all time frame are always a fractal part of a larger set and I contend we've completed a Grand Duper Cycle Wave 1, comprised of five Super Cycle waves. There is an extensive amount of fib confluence over head from today's highs and I'm betting we don't go any higher than 15,300 before a prolonged market collapse with INITIAL TARGETS of nearly 40% from the highs.
Here are my super cycle begin/end points for each of the 5 waves.
Wave Date Hi/Low Amount
Beg 3---Oct-74. 54.87
Wave 1--- 10-Mar-00 5132.52
Wave 2 ---9-Mar-09 1265.62
Wave 3--- 19-Feb-20 9838.37
Wave 4 ---23-Mar-20 6631.42
Wave 5 ---23-Jul-21 14846.06
I'm not used to really sharing this with people as I usually fade into the back ground, but I'm happy to put this little bit together for you. I'd love to hear yours too.
Nasdaq Completes Super Cycle Wave 5 -with Fib Confluences GaloreIf you zoom out on the Nasdaq using a 13D chart, you'll see a clear 5 wave sequence having recently completed. This argument is bolstered by both wave 3 and wave 5 which are 1.618 extensions of wave 1. Wave 3 and Wave 5 are both identical in length. Using this Wave count you'll also see a myriad of confluent fib levels, extensions, etc; but I'm trying to spare you a convoluted chart.
To me this says we are at a super cycle top and have completed Grand Super Cycle wave 1. At the Nasdaq's recent all time high, we cleared the 2.618 of wave 1 by less than 2%.
If you even remotely respect the Elliott Wave guidelines,, you know what this means. There really isn't a downside limit (well, the all time lows around 50 in 1974) and this likely means we are entering a years or decades long Wave 2 correction.
Nasdaq Completes Super Cycle Wave 5 -with Fib Confluences GaloreIf you zoom out on the Nasdaq using a 13D chart, you'll see a clear 5 wave sequence having recently completed. This argument is bolstered by both wave 3 and wave 5 which are 1.618 extensions of wave 1. Wave 3 and Wave 5 are both identical in length. Using this Wave count you'll also see a myriad of confluent fib levels, extensions, etc; but I'm trying to spare you a convoluted chart.
To me this says we are at a super cycle top and have completed Grand Super Cycle wave 1. At the Nasdaq's recent all time high, we cleared the 2.618 of wave 1 by less than 2%.
If you even remotely respect the Elliott Wave guidelines,, you know what this means. There really isn't a downside limit (well, the all time lows around 50 in 1974) and this likely means we are entering a years or decades long Wave 2 correction.
Dow Jones: Recovery! 🚑🚑🚑After the recent correction, the Dow Jones is recovering again. However, we believe that there is still some potential on the downside until somewhere around 33299 points. Once within that area, the Dow can start its final recovery and push for new all-time highs above 35000 points. It is only important that it stays above 32902 points.
Exciting times!
WARNING SIGNS DJI Bear case for DJI presented with an ABCDE correction unfolding. My take - E WAVE down on deck. Price target provided.
Last summer starting in August and running through all of October DJI witnessed an ABC correction which is highlighted on the chart for comparison. However, last time - following the correction the DJI price smashed up through a potential triple top formation clarifying that it was an ABC down and that DJI was done correcting (No ABCDE Correction).
Today's price action on DJI stalled out @ ~35K and sold off (note = lower high than May 10th) , thus potentially completing WAVE D up in the chart as shown. Stoch and RSI pointing downward and Woodies CCI appears to be confirming the trend. Further, the recent lapse as highlighted in the Stochastic indicator where it could not get Overbought for several days is flashing a warning that DJI is top heavy/needs to correct.
Futures price action tomorrow and the rest of this week will likely be telling, to see if the price can power up like it did last October - however will still need watch for a potential megaphone top on DJI, but if it flies up like last time, bear case will be suspect.
Hearing more and more that early Bears will be squeezed - nibbling on the short side only, waiting for confirmation.
Not financial advice.