Dow Jones - Elliott Wave Technical Analysis5th wave has still some room to go up as usually it's as long as 1st wave.
Fib Extn for this wave from bottom of 1st wave to top of 3rd and extending it to 4th (bottom):
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- We are now at 0.236 Fib Extension $34,550, 0.382 is around ~$35,090, 0.5 is at ~$35,500, 0.618 around $35,958
Good Luck!
Djia
Dow Jones: C’mon Do Something! 😴😴😴The Dow Jones has been relatively quiet for the past couple of weeks. Our primary expectation is that the course is going to decline and dip into the target zone with the coordinates of 32850 – 32430 points. From there, we expect the course to increase again and reach new all-time highs. As long as we are above 33646 points, however, there is a 45% chance that the Dow is directly pushing up North.
Stay patient!
$CINF (Cincinnati Financial Corp) - Long to $160 Here is the analysis behind my latest stock purchase $CINF (Cincinnati Financial Corp)
PE Ratio (Trailing) = 5.42
ROE = +29.9%
ROA = +11.4%
ROIC = +10.9%
Solid data there and then the cash situation looks very strong. cash flow is growing but capital expenditures are not meaning the free cash flow is growing in recent years with the most recent 12 months bringing in 1.65 billion
We have 947 million in total cash and 905 million in total debt so this is a well balanced company from that aspect. Considering the debts are well managed and the growing cash flow inline with the average growth of just over 7% for the last 10 years, this to me looks like a strong company that is currently undervalued.
I believe the intrinsic value of this stock to be at $160 based on the current fundamental data
DJIA - Long and short Setup Breakout or Breakdown US30LTF Analysis on the Dow
Closing in on the Apex so a break to the upside or downside is Iminent.
See chart for trade setup if you take it ..
Ensure to know your Invalidation and use a SL
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East vs. West; The Nikkei will obliterate the Dow!!... And that's without even the currency differential factored in! (... which should add an additional +8%-13% to the down-side.)
This spread currently sits right at the Quarterly Pivot.
As it stands, under even the most unlikely circumstances (worst case scenario) this spread, the Short DJIA / Long Nikkei225 , is a 4.5:1 R/R trade. A trade that anyone should take, especially if one finds oneself being forced to stay long equities - for some inexplicable reasons.
The Weekly;
US30 update33800 is an important support line for us30. If Dow breaks this area, which also means that Dow breaks Kumo cloud and we will probably see lower prices for US30.
Dow Jones 30 Analysis, April 20Hi traders, DJIA opened the day lower, together with other major global indices after a strong sell-off in the stock market. The only index that traded higher today was the Hang Seng, but it also gave back some gains ahead of the closing bell in Asia.
Now, DJIA is trading near a well-defined channel support and the 61.8% Fib level, which could provide some support for the index.
Falling US yields are also making bonds less attractive when compared to stocks, and the Fed's stance to keep rates "lower for longer" could see some buyers joining the stock market again.
A fall below the 33,900 level could see further downside potential, while an acceptance of that level would attract buyers and possibly see a retest of recent highs - given that positive risk sentiment persists in the market.
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Dow Jones: Where to go? 🚧🚧🚧Chances are good that the Dow Jones does not stop at 34000 points and crushes through that zone like Shaq used to do back in the day. If the Dow manages to also crush the resistance at 34336 points, our alternative scenario will prevail and bring even higher quotations. In our primary scenario, however, we believe that we take a long road here and that the Dow will correct a bit, before pushing for 34500 points.
Stay trading!
So I'm Bearish...LongtermLooks like we are in the end of an extended wave 5.
Looking for a market top coming in the next year or so.
Retail reddit traders blowing up stocks is a clear sign that we are in the final impulse as retail traders don't typically get personally involved until the end. Also the hedge funds getting margin called is a warning sign that people are overleveraged.
*Notice how in the 70's when Nixon took the USD off the gold standard, the market began it's extended 5th wave. If he hadn't have done that, the market most likely would have had a normal 5th wave comparable to where our current subwave 1 of 5 ended around 1987. So in that reality the 80's would have marked the end of the cycle. We would have gone through another depression and then started a new cycle with the internet boom, but nope.
Honestly China might take over because they'll be able to fund larger deficits and sell their bonds to take over blockchain, while we're paying off all of our ancestors debts!
Building up positions in the VIX.
If this is the top of the top though....WTF do we do...?
People say gold and silver. We also have crypto and defi now so that's good. Maybe other countries or emerging markets?
The U.S. dollar cracking is gonna be part of this so sitting in dollars isn't really an option this time!
AMD HOLDING Key Support LevelAMD coming to test the major support trendline for the fourth time! Can this support hold? We'll see! For now, it's likely we'll hold this support level as it has held 3 times before. However, if the market does sell off next week, I can see a scenario where price will break this key support to fill in the gap set back in July 2020. I would only long AMD at 73 with a tight stop loss.
I'll look for a bigger position if price decides to come down to 68 to fill the gap.
Diversification vs Concentration StrategyI get this question from time to time. Which is better ? Diversify your stock portfolio or place all bets in one sector ?
The answer really depends.
You heard of people becoming millionaires trading cryptocurrencies, high risk stocks like Gamestop, AMC Entertainment, IPOs, commodities and what have you.
Personally, I prefer a diversified portfolio for a fairly simple reason. It is not easy to spot sector rotation where tech stocks are not falling out of favour and in are the banks, real estate, industrial stocks, etc.
So, that way, when my tech stocks are down, my other portfolio shore me up , leaving my overall portfolio in the green. Please note that all 3 indices are still in the bullish trend so a healthy correction of 5-10% is acceptable. It is not to be viewed as BEARISH market as some analysts or the media would want you to believe.
Of course, you may suffer had you bought in recently.
Another thing about this strategy is your domain knowledge of that sector. For example, if you are very familiar in a particular industry , say banks, then you would know how to value it differently from other traders/investors. Still, no one sector is 100% bullish nor bearish all the time but they go through cycles. You need not be an expert at catching at the exact top or bottom but participate at a fairly good price and you still can make good profits.
Think of the sector as a specific sport you like. If you spent a lot of time swimming, then you are going to improve on your strokes, stamina and speed as compared to someone who does it once a fortnight. Same for the sector - you do your research , review the charts more than others, you will spot more patterns, understand the "personality" of the chart and your confidence grow over time as you invest in it.
Others like to have a flavour of different sports as it is more fun that way. Like me, I love running, swimming, walking in the nature, etc. So, you know a bit of each sport but not deep enough to win medals at competition, so to speak.
In conclusion, there is no one fixed strategy for everyone. Find something that you like and you can relate to so doing the research work becomes fun.