$DJIA is breaking lower below the bearish flagAMEX:DJIA break below 39000 opened a new bearish wave cycles near-term and possibly long-term
Djia
DJIA H4 | Strong bearish momentumDJIA (US30) is exhibiting strong bearish momentum and could potentially extend this current downtrend.
Sell entry is at 37,770.60 which is a potential breakout level ( wait for 1-hour candle to close below 37,770.62 for confirmation ).
Stop loss is at 38,100.00 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 37,175.41 which is a pullback support.
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DOW JONES Secret Cycles you didn't know existed!On this analysis we examine the Dow Jones index (DJI) from the longer term perspective of the 1M time-frame. A lot of market participants has started to get nervous because of this month's pull-back and this is the best way to keep a calm mindset and view the price action objectively. In order to see if the market has a legitimate reason to panic or not, the answer can be given by observing the index from a cyclical point of view.
To begin with, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the absolute multi-year Support level (since October 2010 only two candle closings below it, March 2020 COVID flash crash and recently the September 2022 inflation bottom). The market deems every pull-back towards it, a buy opportunity with the lowest possible risk.
Since the bottom of the 2008-2009 Housing Crisis, the 1M RSI bottoms on Lower Lows help us classify the multi-month phases into Cycles. The duration of each Cycle since the 1st, has been pretty consistent (39 to 48 months so far).
When the index closes a 1M candle below the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), the correction towards the 1M MA50 is usually under way. Also there is a striking consistency on the growth of each Cycle. As you can see, with the exception of the first (naturally the most aggressive since it was the start of the recovery after a Bear Cycle), every Cycle sees gains within the range of +70% and +77%.
As a result assuming the new Cycle follows a similar pattern, we can expect a minimum Target of 48850 (+70% from Low) and a Cycle ending on December 2025 (39 months from previous Low). Technically the index should peak around the the start of 2025, entering a volatile period towards the end of the year. This is as close to a projection one can make on such a long-term horizon and with tons of fundamental risks involved.
Where do you think Dow Jones will top at?
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DOW JONES below the 1D MA50 after 5 months!Dow Jones (DJI) gave us an excellent sell entry following our last analysis (March 28, see chart below) as it got rejected and made a bearish reversal exactly where we expected it to:
Last Thursday it even broke below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time in exactly 5 whole months (since November 03 2023)! This is a bearish break-out confirmation signal and we expect a new sell-off soon.
As you can see the former (dotted) Channel Down broke downwards and has given way to a (blue) Channel Down. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has now been turned into Resistance with one confirmed rejection already (April 04).
The Channel Down has fairly symmetrical Bearish Legs so far, -2.36% and -2.20%. Assuming the new will be at a -2.20% minimum, we are expecting a Lower Low at 38200.
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Overlap resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementDJIA (US30) could rise towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance. Could this index stall around this level before potentially reversing to drow lower towards the 1st support?
Pivot: 39,042.57
1st Support: 38,560.25
1st Resistance: 39,412.72
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish momentum to extend?Could the DJIA (US30) extend its current downturn beyond the pivot point and drop toward a support level at 38,693.81?
Pivot: 39,078.84
Support: 38,693.81
Resistance: 39,329.55
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
So goes Apple so goes the market? The old wall street adage! so goes apple....
Were at a pretty interesting level.
Are market makers going to make this breakdown in apple easy?
A head & shoulders breakdown is now on watch for a confirmed break.
This does imply a decent down move and will undoubtedly weigh on markets if it happens.
Keep an eye on the second largest company in the world.
Bullish momentum to continue?The DJIA (US30) is rising towards a potential breakout level at 39,817.48 which has been identified as a pivot point. Could price potentially break through this level and rise higher towards the 1st resistance?
Pivot: 39,817.48
Support: 39,186.86
Resistance: 40,178.47
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Resistance overhead?The DJIA Index (US30) could rise towards an overlap resistance at 38,911.37 which has been identified as a pivot point. Could price potentially reverse around this level to drop lower?
Pivot: 38,911.37
Support: 38,494.85
Resistance: 39,294.29
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bullish bounce?The DJIA Index (US30) could fall towards a pullback support at 38,151.50 which has been identified as a pivot point. Could price potentially reverse around this level to bounce higher?
Pivot: 38,151.50
Support: 37,093.60
Resistance: 39,303.36
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DOW JONESPair : DJI - Dow Jones
Description :
Bullish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Completed " 12 " Impulsive Waves
We might see new ATH in DJIA (US30) soon 41k levelsNow I changed my view on all global Indices, any dip looking forward to buy the dip. My stop losses is in place and tight stop losses for now until it breaks last month high. I think we are in major wave 5 and we are in 3(5) in minor cycle considering Elliot wave theory.
this is just my study and I might change my view depending on price action.
TARGET REACHED - And ongoing to Target 2 - 40,0042The trade analysis we had for Dow Jones couldn't have played out better.
On paper and theory, this just rocked to its first target 37,242.
But then, it entered into a trending market. This is where it's very tough for breakout traders to get in.
This is very tough for reversal traders to trade.
This is very tough for range bounded trades to buy and sell.
So, all we can do is wait for the trend to continue up and form a new pattern. Or continue holding and raising the trailing stop loss each week.
But it looks like the next target is set for 40,0042.
I'll wait and observe as it feels top heavy and I don't really have a good strategy to get in right now.
DOW JONES at the top of the 18month Channel Up. Medium-term SellDow Jones has been trading within a 18-month Channel Up pattern since the October 13 2022 global market bottom. The current price action is approaching its top (Higher Highs trend-line) for the first time in more than 1 year (since December 13 2022). With the 1D RSI on Lower Highs, which is a Bearish Divergence against the Higher Highs of the price action, the current levels are a strong candidate for a medium-term pull-back.
Even though we are past the transition year of 2023, which got the index out of the 2022 Bear Cycle and into the new Bull Cycle, thus we do not necessarily need a strong correction like those of August - October 2023 and December 2022 - March 2023, a smaller technical pull-back would be natural to normalize the overbought technical indicators and extend the long-term bullish trend.
As a result, we are targeting at least 37120, which is Support 1 and just above the 0.618 Fibonacci Channel level, the first target of the December 19 2022 pull-back and a typical % correction similar to August 24 and May 25 2023.
Not that the 1D RSI was under a Lower Highs trend-line both during the August 2023 and December 2022 corrections. Interestingly enough, both corrected by -9.20%, so technically we can see a correction as low as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 0.236 Fibonacci Channel level at 35000 (even though it is less likely unless very negative fundamentals hit the market). Also it is worth pointing out that there is a technical maximum extension above the Channel Up, which is the red Triangle, in case the current Bullish Leg of the pattern goes for a +21% rise, like the December 01 2022 did.
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New all time high by end of JanFollowing DJI and NDX, SPX is on its way to ATH by the end of January.
Cup with Handle on IBM Attempting to Break $140 Resistance LevelWe have a nice looking Cup with Handle on IBM and it's currently Challenging the $140 Psychological Resistance Level, if it can get above that i think we will see IBM's stock price push towards the $175-$180 measured move. On a side not i also believe the Dow will be the strongest performing Maor US Index and reach all time highs before any other index and that IBM will be one of the more major stock leading the way along with Microsoft and Intel.
$US30 is reaching the top of the five upside wavesBLACKBULL:US30 reached the most important resistance 38000 level which can be seen also as the fifth wave of the five upside waves and can lead to a reversal lower if see a rejection like it is happening now. Look for the short trade entries
$DJIA s reaching the rising wedge resistanceAMEX:DJIA has reached the rising wedge resistance 38000 and here it will either break above or reverse for a healthy pullback. Watch the analysis
🅱️ Bitcoin Is The Dow Jones In 1968 | Elliot Wave TheoryBack in 1968 the two major proponents of the Elliot Wave theory concept where divided as to the wave count of the DJIA.
While AJ Frost would consider the 1966 peak as Wave B of an irregular top in a flat correction, Hamilton Bolton was looking at it as the 5th wave of a bullish impulse.
One thing is certain, while they disagreed on the count they both agreed that what should follow was a new bull-market regardless of the count and they were right.
We ended up with a triple zig-zag followed by a new bull-market:
We have the same situation today with Bitcoin, people are divided between the third and fifth waves.
One interpretation calls for the top to be April 2021 with the low in November 2022 being Wave C of a flat and Wave 4 of the impulse in a higher degree:
While some others are calling for new lows taking the November 2021 irregular top as Wave 5 of the bigger impulse:
Well, there is actually a big difference with the Dow Jones forecasters from the past.
While they had a different count as to the irregular top, both agreed that what would be now equivalent to the November 2022 low in Bitcoin was the bottom in the Dow Jones before a new major leg up or bull market, our Cryptocurrency analysts, some, are still divided between new lows and a new bull-market.
Now, let me offer you my count, it is pretty simple.
The 2017 peak is definitely the end of a major 5-up wave, no doubt about that, we can easily draw a 5-up wave pattern with multiple extensions.
What follows is a correction, you can draw it in any way you like and here we have an A-B-C or Zig-Zag from Dec. '17 to Dec. '18.
The next wave can be either an inverted Zig-Zag or another 5-up wave, makes no difference, from Dec. '18 through June '19.
This is followed by another correction ending in March 2020 and here a new 5-up wave pattern starts.
From March 2020 through April 2021 we have another impulse and April 2021 marks the orthodox end of this bull market.
What follows is a correction, classic EW theory and you can see it on this chart.
If you want to be conservative or lets just say not bullish, you can say that another correction can follow after the Nov. 2022 low, this is possible and you can draw an upward Zig-Zag or whatever you like, we can only really confirm the wave count in retrospect.
But, if you consider go past market action and the way Elliot Wave theory works, we are set for a new 5 waves up impulse.
Which is really just the fifth wave of a higher degree since the correction from April 2021 through November 2022 is only Wave 4, which tends to be complex, hard to read and long. We have all these characteristics here...
Bitcoin is going bullish... Can any Elliotter confirm/comment if I am right or wrong?
Namaste.
DOW JONES Why you don't want to miss this rally.Dow Jones (DJI) is pulling back on a technical correction as the 1W RSI got overbought (above the 70.00 mark) on the December 26 1W candle. That was basically the first time since June 01 2021 it got overbought and that time also gave a technical pull-back.
What draws our attention more than that time though is the December 19 2016 pull-back when the 1W RSI was again overbought. The difference here is that the price action and patterns that preceded that pull-back/ consolidation are very similar. A Lower Lows bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) that took place on a 1W RSI Higher Lows Bullish Divergence, gave way to a break and sustainable rise above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Following the current pull-back/ consolidation we are at, a very strong Channel Up took place.
As a result, even though the sentiment is bearish on the short-term, possibly until the January 31 Fed Meeting, it is clear that the long-term trend is bullish. Every such correction has high probabilities from now on to be a buy opportunity. The target can be as high as 43000 within 2024.
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DOW JONES: Top is being formed, 1D RSI Bearish Divergence.Dow Jones has been trading sideways since the December 28th 2023 High, having tested that Resistance after another three times. Naturally the 4H timeframe is neutral and the 1D technical outlook is about to as well (RSI = 56.255, MACD = 185.180, ADX = 33.836). The 1D RSI in particular is under a LH trendline, which is of the same shape as August 1st 2023, May 1st 2023 and December 13th 2022, all major market tops of the past 13 months.
This is a strong technical Bearish Divergence and consequently we expect a pullback to at least the 1D MA50. Based on those past peaks and corrections though, we should be expecting at least a 0.382 Fibonacci pullback, thus our target is near the S2 level (TP = 36,000).
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DOW JONES Correction has started. Where can it stop?Dow Jones (DJI) started a strong decline since our December 29 2023 sell call (see chart below), the strongest since the remarkable rally started on the October 29 bottom:
On today's analysis, we want to look into the same market dynamics and the pattern we drew 10 days ago but this time on the 1D time-frame. What stands out the most is that this time on the January 02 2024 High, the RSI peak that was made a few days back on December 19 2023 (hence the Bearish Divergence) was a (much) Higher High that the previous two (red arrows down) on the Higher Highs trend-line (July 26 2023 and April 13 2023), that was made on the vastly overbought level of 87.50 (highest since January 11 2018).
Our short-term target remains 36750, which represents the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the Jan 02 High. The other feature on this 1D chart that stands out is the 38.50 1D RSI Support, which provided rebounds on May 25 2023 (long-term) and August 24 2023 (short-term). That RSI Support reveals where our first buy attempt should be. Price-wise that could be as low was the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (35100) of the October 27 Low. By the time it potentially makes contact with it, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) could be there as well.
A medium-term candidate is also a -4.50% range from the Jan 02 High, which would give us 36150 and is where the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is headed right now.
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