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SOME CLUES ON THE S&P 500? Gold vs S&P 500 This chart shows the spread between gold and the S&P 500. I think the probability of retracing down to the 618 level and moving higher toward target is reasonably high. This implies the following: 1. Gold and the S&P 500 trade higher together, with gold taking a significant lead 2. Gold trades higher while the S&P 500 tanks 3. Gold trades lower but the S&P 500 tanks more than gold Gold has been moving in tandem with the S&P 500 recently, so it's important not to immediately assume the S&P 500 will tank and gold will rise. I think right now it's important to be very open minded of what's possible (always important to be open minded about market outcomes). Here is where things get more interesting... Copper looks very similar to the S&P 500/Gold Spread: I'd love to hear some thoughts on this.
COMEX:GC1!
by Lanmar
2
ridethepig | Equities Breaking Down!📌 Flows to illustrate end-game cycle chains -> Here we are tracking a very advanced flow, the struggle for Long Bonds to complete the final ⚠️ breakdown and trigger capitulation in debt . This would be more natural to develop ahead of US elections as it would imply maximum pain giving enough energy to help form a base on 'surprise' Trump victory. To keep the pressure on we will see the usual talking heads; Fauci, Gates and the rest push for further lockdowns, but the correct flow was indeed called earlier in the month to switch from the 3,200 SPX which is when we went underweight US Equities. In the Dow, 26,500 is now acting strong resistance and will be difficult for buyers to crack that ahead of Elections; remember we also have no-deal Brexit and Covid all still to play for... The unaware will continue to buy blindly, unpacking the scrabble box and load thinking its a one-quarter wonder recession - retail participation is shooting through the roof. It was a necessary ✅ to clear before we can see the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Smart hands are tracking the claims number and understand that recoveries DO NOT look like this: Fortunately we were ahead of the weakness in Global Equities and Vol, but the rally has been difficult to defend: This next leg lower can now be played. Seller's positioning after Witching with this little loosening move created the room to attack. In the immediate time; look to target a sweep of the lows before adding any US exposure for the next business cycle. Notice how we still did not get into the 15,500 zone called earlier at the lows: The courage to intentionally let retail hang oneself for weeks; just on account on a remote possibility of a second wave; is now sadly going to be rewarded. Look at defaults coming to our theatres very soon, sellers smell blood and have suddenly awakened to fresh activity! We also have the VIX Panic Cycle entering into play right on time as forecast, it has been game, set and match for all of those trading VIX flows live: Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Editors' picks
UShort
by ridethepig
16
ridethepig | Consumer Staples (Chapter 2)The following diagram illustrates the breakup of a globalisation advance: Since the retrace in VIX has found a hard floor into the 25 lows, we may characterise the advance as an endgame for our economic cycle purposes. Now the erroneous nature of Volatility advancing can be seen. The effect of demobilising the consumer will weigh heavy on Equities, not to mention how companies position capital more defensively going forward. Consumers are uncomfortable (at least from Q3/Q4 onwards) right on time for the stimulus to fade. The following swing, which will also be quoted in the previous leg in DAX is another example. I will go over the flows briefly at this point: Equities have now lost all sense of reality, the concussion in addition to Fed conceding far too much mobility; so this may rightfully be classified as the end of an economic cycle, or at least until capitalism returns from its sabbatical.
AMEX:XLPShort
by ridethepig
4
$DJI Market Breakdown - (June 16)DJI Market Breakdown - June 16th Futures Gapped up to our $26616 level to a T overnight Expecting a pullback to the bottom of this red zone at $25800 for proper entry Could even close the previous futures gap from 2 weeks ago. Looking like heavy sell orders going right now on this candle, its doji'ing. The hype behind today's move was the potential 'cure' for coronavirus. That's a lie. All just the science of trading If you like this indicator i'm using you can find it underneath my most recent scripts published, add to favorites and place it on your chart Don't bet against the patterns of the market you're going to get humbled
DJ:DJI
by kyer
ridethepig | DJIA Floodgates Are Open!!📍 Who's in Control? - Sellers clearly have the luxury of momentum on the recent breakdown, advancing here too fast would be an immediate mistake since after that buyers will lose faith and start to cover. The correct procedure will be a time-consuming chop inside the 25,000 - 23,000 range to shake out those travelling Robinhood crowd. We have the weapon of a zig-zag to thank for this play; make good use of it and in cases of too much pressure watch for Fed bending the knee. There now follows a tactical and measured move in risk-off as cases start to tick higher around the world again. If you are not already loaded on the sell side, the trip you are planning for here should be carefully measured and prepared before pulling the trigger. We are still yet to entice the major capitulation and pickup the lows. All that seems necessary before we can begin the advance later in 2021.
UShort
by ridethepig
3
DOW JONES INDEX Analysis .This is going to be a general overview on the Dow Jones from a weekly perspective.More details are to be found on the analysis I will be posting from the daily perspective . TVC:DJI has lost yesterday almost 7 percent in one day which has probably made many people panick .This was quite expectable because the up trend that officially started the week of March 23rd wasn't sustainable which made the market weaken as it went up.That's why as soon as the white line (resistance) was hit the market fell right away . Actually in the long term this is healthy for the market as long as no major levels are broken below .
TVC:DJI
by StockAnalystPro
To listen or not to these experts ?Morgan Stanley said this Bond King said this What do you say ? You see, they both could be right. It is the timing that they cannot foretell. Nobody but the Market knows where the direction is going to be. At best, their views are a guide, reference point , something extra for you to consider in your own research. When I look at the DJIA chart, this is what I saw and believe in. As such, until the trend proves otherwise, I am still cautiously bullish. Yes, what they said about the economic data are right but the relationship with the stock market is another thing altogether. And that makes the market so mysterious and alluring to many. Like the moth that flies towards the fire and get burned willingly. Is it a single datapoint that moves the market or a combination ? If yes, which sets should we use ? GDP, unemployment, PMI, interest rates ? The list goes on and from an economic standpoint, all these data points are indeed very useful. Again, there would be "gurus" out there who still want to peddle their "secret trade signals", some proprietary information that they have accessed to and are now selling to you. That itself is a giveaway. They market it cheap , giving reasons like helping more people, limited time offer and what have you so that it sounds affordable and reasonable. This is all a mind's game. The idea is to earn your money. On the flip side, because there are so much free information on the internet, trying to make sense who's genuine and what information to latch on is like searching a needle in the haystack. And that is why I advocate starting on a small account, using demo account to test ideas from the different sources you have. Give it some time to run your test, be patient and draw the conclusions yourself. If at the end of it, you are satisfied and convinced that might be holy grail you are looking for, then you part your money with the vendor, eyes open. Should it not work out at the end of the day, at least you have done your due diligence. Just be careful the next round. This is calculated risks that you are taking. Nobody can shield that for you. You gotta go through that yourself, your very own experience. Some of us are lucky as they have a shorter and easier learning journey while others have to undergo a more volatile one. Nevertheless, what doesn't break you make you stronger, right ? Whether you are long or short, we are all participating in this probability game and no one knows the outcome till the end.
TVC:DJILong
by dchua1969
1
Land of the Rising SunIt is normal that we tend to look at our neighbours garden and think how pretty the lawn is and the neat rows of flowers they have. Sometimes, we over focus on outside of our own markets and neglect what's nearer to us. In this case, we made the assumption that just because US is a big market, we should give it more attention and in doing so, we blind ourselves to the opportunities that are nearer to us. Japan has moved way ahead of the US markets as evidenced on the charts. The amount of economic stimulus that Prime Minister Abe is injecting into Japan is simply staggering. Read article here It has breaks out of the resistance level at 20,603 and is moving higher towards 24,000 mark. Wait for pullback, goto smaller time frame for better price entry. Now, there might be little or no co-relation between Nikkei 225 and DJIA but can we say, both countries are injecting trillions of dollars into their economies ? US may be affected in the short term due to the HK saga with China and the President may have something on his sleeves that nobody knows. I am of the opinion that bringing the market down is not to his favour in view of the upcoming election. Let's see how this week the market performs.
TVC:NI225Long
by dchua1969
Dow Potential high and Bull Shake outPosted an hour ago in my public channel, of a potential fake bull flag breakout on the Dow. Dow, has made a bull flag on the right, broke up but no acceleration yet, so there is a chance for a false breakout here. If so, big chance we see a range today between 27250/450. If that happens, up until closing, there is a chance maybe the last hour of trading it could drop. So going to sit and wait, hope for some zigzagging coming hours. With eventually a lower high as my blue line suggest. If so, we could see a big shake out move coming days. Now i don't think its likely to see a big dump. Even in a bearish scenario, we should get top formation of several weeks i think at least. So the blue line on the right is a likely scenario as well. But no need to get ahead of things. First see how today goes The combo with the Dax, if they both play out, would increase the chances. If Dax, which looks like it broke a real trend line, moves like this, it could fall perfectly in place together with Dow description. If so, the odds will improve even more As i am writing this, bouncing up again from te flag support at 27250ish. Now we could form that lower high (blue) or maybe even the higher high (red). But important to see it stay below the 27450ish. If it rallies above it, then this theory is off the table. Ignore the time frame of the blue lines, both of them. Ideally, we see THE last high (blue or red) form in the last hour of the US stock market open. To see bulls take profit in the last 30/60 minutes of this trading day. Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
FOREXCOM:US30
by botje11
6
Bears lost (get over it) the final round.Please do you Due diligence and invest wisely From my last DIA post I presented the Bears Vs Bull case and pointed out at what level I felt would decide who won the final round. I also pointed out the bull vs bear trap area which played out for many weeks to trap as much bears as possible. Now I think the market will make new all time highs and every dip in my opinion will be a chance to go long. The fed owns the market and has tipped the scale in favor of the market now the FOMO has begun in retail who will be the ones to push the market to all time highs.
AMEX:DIALong
by UnknownUnicorn3272672
2
DOW JONES - Will history repeat?Since April 6, 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial Average includes 30 companies Which company from this list will be the strongest in the next 54 years? 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) (industrial conglomerate) American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) (credit services) Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) (Electronics) Boeing Co., The (NYSE: BA) (aircraft and defense) Caterpillar, Inc. (NYSE: CAT) (agricultural and construction equipment) Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) (petroleum industry) Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) (Telecommunications) Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) (drinks) Dow, Inc. (NYSE: DOW) (chemical industry) Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) (oil and gas company) The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) (finance) Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) (building supplies stores) International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) (computing) Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) (semiconductors) Johnson & Johnson Inc. (NYSE: JNJ) (chemistry, pharmaceuticals) JPMorgan Chase and Co. (NYSE: JPM) (financial group) McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) (fast food restaurants) Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) (pharmaceuticals) Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) (software) Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) (clothing) Pfizer, Inc. (NYSE: PFE) (pharmaceuticals) Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) (household chemicals) Travelers (NYSE: TRV) (financial services) UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE: UNH) (Healthcare) Raytheon Technologies (NYSE: RTX) (industrial conglomerate) Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) (telecommunications) Visa, Inc. (NYSE: V) (finance) Walmart, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) (distribution network) Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (NYSE: WBA) (pharmacies) Walt Disney Co., The (NYSE: DIS) (entertainment industry)
TVC:DJI
by EXCAVO
35