Jerome Powell said he wouldn't save the stock marketIn a 60 minutes interview (I think) the FED chair said the stock market could go down.
I don't want to rewatch the whole thing, and I can't find the quotes on the internet because you know that's not something important at all.
It's in there. He said "yes, you can lose your money" and more. Not saying his word is to be trusted but he hasn't planned to "save" the stock market.
Meanwhile, retail bullishness is at all time high, on the FED site the question "will stocks go up" has a record number of "yes".
Suckers will buy "cheap", as they always do, but they do not have enough weight to drive the price.
A part of money printed out of thin air ends up in the stock market this is true. During QE 1-4 a correlation of 98% has been found: 98% of the time the FED bought bonds, the stock market went up.
And retail that gets checks, "free" money, is going to do the "safe thing" and the "right thing", the "rational thing", what they have been told to do, and invest it in "safe productive companies that always go up". They can't really save their "money" (currency), the option they have is what they have heard over and over "beautiful dividend paying productive business that always go up because it always have value because it always go up".
Yes, alot of money will flow into the stock market. Here is the thing: The stock market will only go up, if the US DOLLAR falls faster than the stock market does.
In real money term it will fall 100%. In $ terms, sure, it can go up. Who cares about something priced in ponzi currency?
The whole bull market driver, for the entire bull market, and by very far, were corporate buybacks (company profits don't get taxed until they sell shares if they use that profit to buy shares). Now almost all companies are underwater and need bailouts. Buybacks have slowed down in 2019 and now I strongly believe those will strongly decline. I expect them (at least) to be at their lowest in 10 years.
Foreign countries might want to dump both their US equities, and their US dollars (currency or treasuries) also.
China was super mad and have been reducing their usd exposure, but they still own over a trillion.
Boy will they be pissed when the USA inflate their debt away. I think that's the end of the usd reserve currency.
2020 was a nice round year for a great depression.
Powell got asked in that 60 minutes interview "Will this be called the second great depression in the future" and he froze and looked terrified lololo, then ye of course he said "naaah, there will be a sharp downturn, a violent recession worse than 2008, but we will recover by late 2021" or something like that.
During the whole interview he has weird ticks and makes strange faces. I think he is a little worried 😃
This depression will be worse than the 1930s. For foreigner this means we'll get discounts on nice companies (outside of the USA duh). For Americans emmm rip.
I want to post a list of countries with average price to earnings, but alot of this info is behind pay walls. I'll just go for something very generic and partly outdated but that's fine don't need perfection, just need to know where to look first.
I know the USA and India are so expensive. I think Europe is quite undervalued, and prices are not down falling. I like Africa there is potential to go way up, but this is far more risky I think.
I am not going to keep holding euros and dollars that are racing to zero. I need to grow my trading account more but as soon as I have a decent size I need to generate profit (I hate the idea of trading for income but I'll have to) I'm going to want to put some of my money into real assets.
Anyone that worked for more than just a few years or maybe I should say anyone that ever worked period should want to save up some of it and keep it in a real asset not a ponzi ran by banks & government that only benefit them.
Hey here is the whole Elon Musk quote.
Calling social democrats fascists, calling the quarantine stupid, calling out big tech censorship, tearing down the narrative, calling the average dum dum a fool?
I'm really liking the new Elon Musk.
Real inflation does not just come from a currency supply expanding more than the GDP (amount of goods and services).
If the GDP contracts then there is less stuff. If there is less stuff, it becomes more valuable.
The US won't starve. They can produce so much food (1 of the reason is how much CO2 we pumped into the atmosphere).
In the short term they might have some meat shortage but it's not a huge deal. I really don't think anyone will starve.
Powell has clearly said "we just want to print money so small & medium business survive a few months, we are just trying to buy time".
So he is not trying to print the country into wealth, like Zimbabwe. But it doesn't matter.
This is a ponzi scheme and like every ponzi scheme you need to burn more and more cash to sustain it. You can never stop it without the whole thing collapsing.
Plus politicians are never going to want to give back the powers they got, and the public is going to want more "free stuff" "we need a living wage that's all we ask" "we just want the bare minimum to live in human dignity".
The US bonds are trash bonds. The country is collapsing from the inside. The US stock market was extremely expensive before the GDP contraction.
There is no one to bail them out. Don't look at west europe we got our own problems we ain't going to bailout anyone, plus we became so reliant on the USA...
I hope it crashes soon so I can start making money. The USA really holding everything back zzzzz. Stupid modern portfolio theory.
This will either be called a great depression, or the greatest depression, or the deep depression. Or maybe they invent a new worse word.
"Bipolar psychosis dysphoric disorder". I wish the bureaucrats didn't try to "help". Oh well at least I'll get to say "told you so".
