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Djia

DOW JONES MAJOR MARKET TREND REVERSAL! I decided to publish this analysis of the Dow Jones since I found it to be very significant. The chart suggests that we have reached an end of a long bull market run that lasted around 10 years. It appears that we now are transitioning into bear market! Oh well, the bears need some time in the spotlight too! As you can see, we reached higher and higher highs as well as higher and higher bottoms in the market until we reached the all-time high of over 29,000 back in February. Since then we have experienced a few rallies but peaked at 27,250 earlier this month. Looking at the bottoms, we can see, and recall, almost too well how we hit 19,000 back in March. Remember, the little crash back in December, 2018? We found support at around 22,300. So, we now have identified a lower low and a lower high. This creates our new bearish trend. As you can see, I have connected the dots on the chart, and you can see how the bull trend has been broken and the beginning of a bearish trending channel (red dotted lines) has formed. I expect the market to move within this bearish channel for quite some time. As you can see, we will not hit any new market highs this year considering that the resistance currently is positioned around 27,000 and will trend lower from here. The bottom of the bearish channel intersects with a green support line around 16,700 in April, 2021. If the channel holds, 16,700 represents the worst case scenario in terms of a low on this time frame. This green support line represents strong support as it has acted as such since 1982. Thank you for entertaining my idea. See you somewhere inside that bearish red dotted channel!
TVC:DJIShort
by Larssonator
SOME CLUES ON THE S&P 500? Gold vs S&P 500 This chart shows the spread between gold and the S&P 500. I think the probability of retracing down to the 618 level and moving higher toward target is reasonably high. This implies the following: 1. Gold and the S&P 500 trade higher together, with gold taking a significant lead 2. Gold trades higher while the S&P 500 tanks 3. Gold trades lower but the S&P 500 tanks more than gold Gold has been moving in tandem with the S&P 500 recently, so it's important not to immediately assume the S&P 500 will tank and gold will rise. I think right now it's important to be very open minded of what's possible (always important to be open minded about market outcomes). Here is where things get more interesting... Copper looks very similar to the S&P 500/Gold Spread: I'd love to hear some thoughts on this.
COMEX:GC1!
by Lanmar
2
ridethepig | Equities Breaking Down!📌 Flows to illustrate end-game cycle chains -> Here we are tracking a very advanced flow, the struggle for Long Bonds to complete the final ⚠️ breakdown and trigger capitulation in debt . This would be more natural to develop ahead of US elections as it would imply maximum pain giving enough energy to help form a base on 'surprise' Trump victory. To keep the pressure on we will see the usual talking heads; Fauci, Gates and the rest push for further lockdowns, but the correct flow was indeed called earlier in the month to switch from the 3,200 SPX which is when we went underweight US Equities. In the Dow, 26,500 is now acting strong resistance and will be difficult for buyers to crack that ahead of Elections; remember we also have no-deal Brexit and Covid all still to play for... The unaware will continue to buy blindly, unpacking the scrabble box and load thinking its a one-quarter wonder recession - retail participation is shooting through the roof. It was a necessary ✅ to clear before we can see the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Smart hands are tracking the claims number and understand that recoveries DO NOT look like this: Fortunately we were ahead of the weakness in Global Equities and Vol, but the rally has been difficult to defend: This next leg lower can now be played. Seller's positioning after Witching with this little loosening move created the room to attack. In the immediate time; look to target a sweep of the lows before adding any US exposure for the next business cycle. Notice how we still did not get into the 15,500 zone called earlier at the lows: The courage to intentionally let retail hang oneself for weeks; just on account on a remote possibility of a second wave; is now sadly going to be rewarded. Look at defaults coming to our theatres very soon, sellers smell blood and have suddenly awakened to fresh activity! We also have the VIX Panic Cycle entering into play right on time as forecast, it has been game, set and match for all of those trading VIX flows live: Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
UShort
by ridethepig
16
ridethepig | Consumer Staples (Chapter 2)The following diagram illustrates the breakup of a globalisation advance: Since the retrace in VIX has found a hard floor into the 25 lows, we may characterise the advance as an endgame for our economic cycle purposes. Now the erroneous nature of Volatility advancing can be seen. The effect of demobilising the consumer will weigh heavy on Equities, not to mention how companies position capital more defensively going forward. Consumers are uncomfortable (at least from Q3/Q4 onwards) right on time for the stimulus to fade. The following swing, which will also be quoted in the previous leg in DAX is another example. I will go over the flows briefly at this point: Equities have now lost all sense of reality, the concussion in addition to Fed conceding far too much mobility; so this may rightfully be classified as the end of an economic cycle, or at least until capitalism returns from its sabbatical.
AMEX:XLPShort
by ridethepig
4
$DJI Market Breakdown - (June 16)DJI Market Breakdown - June 16th Futures Gapped up to our $26616 level to a T overnight Expecting a pullback to the bottom of this red zone at $25800 for proper entry Could even close the previous futures gap from 2 weeks ago. Looking like heavy sell orders going right now on this candle, its doji'ing. The hype behind today's move was the potential 'cure' for coronavirus. That's a lie. All just the science of trading If you like this indicator i'm using you can find it underneath my most recent scripts published, add to favorites and place it on your chart Don't bet against the patterns of the market you're going to get humbled
DJ:DJI
by kyer
ridethepig | DJIA Floodgates Are Open!!📍 Who's in Control? - Sellers clearly have the luxury of momentum on the recent breakdown, advancing here too fast would be an immediate mistake since after that buyers will lose faith and start to cover. The correct procedure will be a time-consuming chop inside the 25,000 - 23,000 range to shake out those travelling Robinhood crowd. We have the weapon of a zig-zag to thank for this play; make good use of it and in cases of too much pressure watch for Fed bending the knee. There now follows a tactical and measured move in risk-off as cases start to tick higher around the world again. If you are not already loaded on the sell side, the trip you are planning for here should be carefully measured and prepared before pulling the trigger. We are still yet to entice the major capitulation and pickup the lows. All that seems necessary before we can begin the advance later in 2021.
UShort
by ridethepig
3
DOW JONES INDEX Analysis .This is going to be a general overview on the Dow Jones from a weekly perspective.More details are to be found on the analysis I will be posting from the daily perspective . TVC:DJI has lost yesterday almost 7 percent in one day which has probably made many people panick .This was quite expectable because the up trend that officially started the week of March 23rd wasn't sustainable which made the market weaken as it went up.That's why as soon as the white line (resistance) was hit the market fell right away . Actually in the long term this is healthy for the market as long as no major levels are broken below .
TVC:DJI
by StockAnalystPro