DOW JONES: Testing the 1D MA50. Rally if it holds.Dow Jones hit TP1 = 33,650 and is now going for our TP2 = 33,900 as per the trading plan we made last week (chart at the bottom). The 1D time frame finally turned (slightly) bullish (RSI = 51.712, MACD = -40.000, ADX = 28.963) for the first time since May 1st but today's pull back is testing the 1D MA50. If it holds, we expect to reach the 33,900 target that is under the top of the large Channel Down structure.
With the MACD having formed a Bullish Cross, there are high chances of this turning into a medium term rally into a new Channel Up. If R1 breaks (34,275) we will buy the breakout and aim at the top of this potential Channel Up (TP = 35,200).
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Djia
S&P500 and US stock marketThe medium- and long-term forecast of a serious fall remains in force , but so far there is no confirmation of its beginning, we are focusing on the above levels. Technically, we can still show a small increase, fundamentally the situation is unstable and the fall can begin at any moment. There are serious problems in the banking sector , the prospects of a recession . In previous reviews, the inversion of the yield curve (US government bonds) was mentioned more than once, at the moment the situation is only getting worse. Sooner or later, it will begin to return to a "normal state", which will be the beginning of an sharp phase of the crisis.
$DJIA -Awaiting Apex's End *2WBig Move incoming for Dow Jones Industrial Average.
AMEX:DJIA has created Triangle's Apex approaching the end .
Note that this is a Neutral Pattern, it can go each ways ;
Bearish and Bullish.
(depending on TVC:DXY , Geo-Politics & Macro Economics conditions)
For now, it's better to observe and stay sharp and await for further confirmations.
Nothing is clear yet TA speaking for AMEX:DJIA
AMEX:DJIA is one of the Heaviest Financial Sector for United States.
That being said,
it is very important to always have a lookout of its Price Action
and Trends Directions for further clarification of how other US Financial Sectors
will perform.
A Change of Charachter would definetely bring more clarification of reaching levels
of ATH or LOW
At the time of this idea being released price is finding some support at S/R
zone and 20-50EMA over maintaining their bullish crossover.
For now, it's better to observe and stay sharp and await for further confirmations.
Nothing is clear yet TA speaking for AMEX:DJIA , as well taking in to consideration
The Debt Ceiling decision that is yet to take place.
TRADE SAFE
***
Note that this is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking
any trading related activities based soly on this idea.
DOW JONES on a confirmed Bullish break-out.Dow Jones (DJI) has broken above the short-term Channel Down today, fulfilling the conditions for a buy break-out as presented on our previous analysis (see idea below) and is now even above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line):
To add more to the bullish sentiment, it even broke above the Diverging Lower Highs and has no real Resistance until 34270, which is our short-term Target. The current rebounded was achieved after the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) held as Support on three separate tests.
The hidden Buy Signal however was derived by the 1D MACD, which completed today a Bullish Cross, the first since March 21 that was the previous market bottom and the start of the current long-term Channel Up
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All in the Stride, 2 Jun 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities shot up to continue the upward march. A Buy signal was triggered and executed. The previous Short position was flipped into a Buy but only after suffering further loss. Clearly the Strategy(ies) are confidently Bullish.
➤ If we look at the movement of the S&P500 equity index since the March bottom we can observe the character of the movement so far. Prices initially accelerated up into April. It proceeded higher with a two steps up, one step down type of progression.
➤ The step down has become shallower and shallower. This sort of behaviour can be thought of as people chasing the market or being more confident to buy the market. They are not willing to wait for lower prices. This is more obvious with the movement in the NASDAQ and mega tech stocks.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Surely that only leads to one conclusion: Markets are headed higher.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
Inching Higher, 1 Jun 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Markets pulled back but in the short-term, it is still zig-zagging upwards. It is inching higher and so is the hurdle required to proof the case for a new Bull market.
➤ For May, the monthly price failed to close above the Feb high just like in prior months. It has however put in a place a higher high. The higher high at 422.58 on the SPY is the new monthly hurdle that needs to be eclipsed. It is both hope and a struggle. The hope is for a new Bull market, the struggle is to get there. Picture a tiring swimmer that is treading water, getting closer to safety but barely keeping afloat.
➤ I hold a small short position.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Pricing is setting up for a high conviction short opportunity but I also said that many times in May. It failed to materialise into a trade.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
DOW JONES Trading approach going into JuneDow Jones / DJI is trading inside a Channel Down pattern for more than a month.
The price is now under the 4hour MA50 and as long as it closes there, sell and target close to Support A at 32600.
A crossing (and candle closing) over the 4hour MA100 will be a short term buy signal targeting 33400 (top of the Channel Down).
A crossing (and candle closing) over the 4hour MA200 will be a long term buy signal targeting Resistance A at 34260.
Previous chart:
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"Bearly" Alive, 31 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Bulls may have horns instead of FAANGS but it is just an effective weapon. By some measures the Bear market is over and the Bull market phase is in its infancy.
➤ For me, a strong monthly close in May above the February high is that confirmation. Such a close would reverse the downtrend on the monthly chart. A failure to do so will keep the Bears alive...barely.
➤ The only threat to the Bull market story is in the lack of breadth of stocks contributing to the rise of equities. A strong market is usually composed of multiple sectors leading the charge. Here we only have a very select group of mega tech stocks. To breathe new life into the Bearish narrative, the FAANG bubble needs to implode almost immediately along with the AI hype.
➤ I hold a small short position.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 FAANGS are sharp.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
DJI looking for upside resumptionGood morning all!
I'll be breef as I the count kind of speaks for itself. It looks like we are ready to resume higher into wave 3 as we are looking at what appears to be a clear three wave move into wave 2.
It looks like TECH will be giving a break and VALUE will come back strong into sector rotation.
CHECK OUT my previous post on the NASDAQ which played out perfectly, let's see if this post will have the same faith.
Feel free to ASK me questions in the comments.
Enjoy the weekend and trade safe!
I've Got the Magic, 26 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
"I've got the magic in me
Every time I touch that track, it turns into gold
Now everybody knows I've got the magic in me
When I hit the floor, the girls come snapping at me
Now everybody wants some crystal magic"
I'm borrowing those song lyrics by The Treblemakers from the Movie: Pitch Perfect.
➤ Equities did indeed gap higher to close the previous days' price gap and magically also closed the gap it created during today's open. Killing two birds (I mean gaps) with one stone.
➤ Nvidia's share price also played with the AI magic trick for a huge price gap of it's own. Will this gap get filled? I'm 💯% sure it will but not in one day.
➤ That being said, that bit of magic helped me out of my long position with a teeny tiny profit leaving behind a small short position. Price is setting up nicely for a Short move. If the price path that I imagine magically comes to fruition it should look something like this: Prices are re-testing the recent high by moving slightly up or down or sideways for a couple of more days prior to the real move lower.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 I'm looking forward to seeing more magic tricks. 🪄
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
Watch the Gap, 25 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities gapped lower but found short-term support at the 410 level on the SPY. The VIX accelerated higher. In after-hours trading the price has bounced higher. It would be interesting to see if this is sustained until market open. It could lead to the filling of the gap and in doing so creating another gap. Are you following my gapping explanation? If not, look at the chart. You'll note there are a couple of other unfilled gaps lower as marked by the blue arrows. These tend to get filled over time.
➤ Without prior knowledge of the after hours bounce, from the naked eye it does look price wants to bounce higher given the combination of 1) hitting a support level 2) deceleration in the drop (reducing bar/candle size)
➤ I do favour the notion that the immediate gap should be filled. That will hopefully get me out of my long trade for a profit. If that is fulfilled, I'll be looking for a potential Short entry shortly after if things play out as expected.
➤ I remain positioned fairly neutral for now.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 The favoured view is for price to straddle lower.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
DOW JONES: Hit the 1D MA200 after almost 2 months.Dow Jones touched today the 1D MA200 for the first time since March 29th, almost 2 months after the strong bullish break-out. The 1D timeframe is technically bearish (RSI = 38.438, MACD = -67.410, ADX = 30.240), indicating that we are approaching low enough levels to justify a long term buy. However we are only willing to open a buy position as long as the 1D candles close over the 1D MA200 and target R1 (TP = 33,600).
If a candle closes below the 1D MA200, we will open a sell and target the bottom of the dashed Channel Down (TP = 32,000). Once the 1D RSI gets oversold, we will again buy on the long term, aiming at the top of the seven month Channel Down (TP = 33,900).
Keep in mind that the 1D MA200 has held and provided excellent buy signals, three times and only once on March 9th it broke.
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D for Distribution, 24 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
"D is for Down
Like the Market today
D is for Distribution
We are on our way"
➤ Equities fell back into the recent consolidation. As discussed in yesterday's note, the price action now favours the bearish view. Price tends to fall to the bottom of the range.
➤ Assuming we are in the Distribution phase, the path lower can be abrupt or staggered. The abrupt case sees prices shoot straight through and below the low of the consolidation. The speed that happens displays the urgency of Sellers.
➤ A staggered path will see re-tests with prices briefly bouncing higher along the way down. It normally starts with the re-test of the high of the range. Each time the re-test will fail and prices fall further. It is at a lower speed with less urgency.
➤ Given the narrow range of the consolidation, it would only require a couple of large down days to find the bottom of the range. I'm not expecting a slow grind whatever path the price takes.
➤ Interestingly, I have received a buy signal and this has been dutifully executed. It is a small position to play the "re-test". Incidentally this hedges out the pre-existing small short position. Overall the portfolio is fairly neutral.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 The Distribution can only be confirmed after the fact. i.e. price breaks below the range and keeps falling. Anything before that is just conjecture.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
Weekly Update: The Triangle Count was Invalidated, Now What?Since the December lows of 3788 ES, I have been tracking a triangle pattern that would have reconciled higher in my target box for a larger B-wave. Readers can look at previous postings to see what I have been forecasting. Last week, SPX Futures breached the 4208.50 level. So, with that, the final micro target of an e-wave was invalidated and thus the triangle count abandoned.
With respect to a triangle pattern, two topics I continue to share with my members in our trading room is (1) Triangles are rare patterns, and (2) they typically invalidate between the D and the E wave, only to reveal a much simpler pattern. Yes, it is true price patterns can become complex when in the midst of a counter trend corrective rally or decline. However, I tend to keep my labeling simple rather than defaulting to the complex as many of these patterns tend to be viewed as simple zig zags in the rear-view mirror. That is what we have been presented with now that price has invalidated the more complex triangle pattern as featured above.
Here's where things get tricky.
For the Elliott Wave uninitiated, after an A and B waves you get…” Wait for it” …a C wave. Anyone who follows or practices Elliott Wave Analysis would agree when I say that a C-wave feels like a Crash when the reconciliation is to the downside, or a parabolic move when the trend is up. If you wish to challenge that my determination of that feel free to post your comments below.
I will admit in the short term, there appears to be some work to do to the upside for our A wave to equal our C wave higher. But here’s the most important piece of information I share with you today. With the breach of 4208.50 last week, I now have the minimum waves in place to consider this counter trend rally complete. However, as of the time of my authoring this weekly update, I have no immediate information that our upside pattern is complete. Let’s discuss what I expect now, and what clues we will see before such a “Crash Event” lower is underway.
My Expectation:
Let me start with the mathematical sweet spot for the counter trend price action to complete and reverse from. That price point is the .618% Fibonacci retracement level up at 4309.50. That would mean we have about only about 2.8% upside left to go from current levels.
However, the reasonable target area higher (above the .618% level at 4309.50) could extend at maximum to the price area of 4529. That is the .786% retracement level. In fact, prior to that level, price would have to exceed the 1.0 extension level higher at 4517. So, let’s assume that everything goes right with the Fed, Inflation, the Jobs Market, and Not to mention the debt ceiling…4529 would be the statistical anomaly for higher price action.
So, what’s my expectation higher: Provided we do not breach 4062.25 then I think it’s reasonable to expect 4309.50. Below 4062.50 and the possibility we are in our C-wave down to NEW LOWS, starts to get higher.
Disclaimer: If you have gotten this far in this post then you have read all of the above. Many of the comments I receive here on TradingView...are from people who scan my posts...but have a lot to comment on...al of which I address within the context of my posts.
Just like trading...reading is hard.
Best to all,
Chris
DOW JONES Emerging Bullish Cross may take it higher.Dow Jones (DJI) has broken above the former long-term Channel Down, hitting our previous upside target (see idea below) and is now forming a new pattern:
The new pattern is a Channel Up, which has been on a correction leg (blue channel down) since the 34270 High, similar to the one from December 01 to January 05. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting a loose Triangle pattern (dashed trend-lines), which above it targets Resistance 1. Our target is slightly lower at 34250.
The critical factor is on the 1D MACD, which is close to forming a Bullish Cross. Every MACD Bullish Cross under 0 in 2023 has been a major Buy Signal, and interestingly enough both have been formed while the price was consolidating within a Triangle.
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Hesistancy, 23 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Yesterday I discussed the potential bullish narrative resulting from a "re-accumulation" phase. Today I'd like to explore the bearish narrative in the form of "distribution".
➤ Distribution is the result of Whales reducing or selling out of their previously accumulated positions. Obviously, they wish to get the best price when exiting. This can be done by drip-feeding sells as prices push higher. The last buyer is normally the retail investor who is late to the party. Once the initial rush of retail buying starts to dry up, a consolidation forms where the demand and supply is largely balanced. This is where Whales start unloading larger positions helping to keep a ceiling on the price.
➤ Looking at the current price action, we can either view it as a re-test of the breakout (bullish scenario) or it is "hesistancy" - hesitancy at the resistance (yes I made that word up). It may result in the price reversing back into the range (an "upthrust" action). This could signal the stage of the distribution phase at which Whales start dumping the remainder of their positions indiscriminantly as retail buyers dry up. The result is a quick cascading fall.
➤ This hesistancy has forced me out of my long position for a minor loss, one of the outcomes I outlined before. My trade signals can be very sensistive even to minute price movements. I hold a small remaining short position as part of the secondary strategy.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 So is it accumulation or distribution?
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
Textbook, 22 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Due to unpopular demand there will be no more rhyme. I guess I will stick with Trading as my full-time job.
➤ We currently have a textbook re-test of the breakout above the recent consolidation in the S&P500. We will need to re-label the consolidation as a "re-accumulation" if it proves to be a bullish. Re-accumulation simply means that the Whales have been buying up while trying to shake loose Weak Hands. This is the only method for increasing their overall holding without moving prices higher (hence the ups and downs within the consolidation).
➤ That being said my secondary strategy has triggered a Short trade. This means we are partially hedged with a large bullish position and a minor bearish position. Remember, these are independent trades. Either both could be right or both wrong or split eachway. It just depends on how price evolves.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
#us30 will perform an enormous rally today from this point.Us30 will rally by about 680 points today from this point. If/when this pans out give me a like and a comment.
Breakout, 19 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
"The market has broken out,
So has my trading drought,
We are back in the action,
Will we profit? That is the question."
➤ The colour theme of today's chart background is fire 🔥 because it looks like the equity market is red hot. Is the Bear market over? It's certainly pointing that way. 👆
➤ To be frank, I'm not a big fan of breakout trades. It probably worked very well during those times before I was born but these days there are more fakeouts. Price may either completely reverse or sometimes retrace the break. Both actions can result in an exit for a loss.
➤ If I lose, I guess I can always quit trading and make money through rhymes...Oh wait there's CHATGPT.
➤ I'm long with a large position
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 MrStocky the Sometime Trader, Rhymer of Words, King of Patience, Protector of Profit (but not yet the King of Copytrading)
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
Averting Disaster, 18 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ S&P500 moved higher to the top of the range. It has been consolidating since 18th April. Wyckoff enthusiasts will note that we may be approaching the latter stages (Phase C). If I were to use a plane analogy, the plane is taxiing towards the runway ready for lift-off. The issue is that we aren't told if we are heading North or South.
➤ Consolidations are tricky to trade, especially if it is narrow (distance between top and bottom of the range. We got caught out at the start of this range with a -1.5% losing trade (early May) and we've been "lucky" to have averted further loss (so far). Yesterday, a Short trade almost materialised. If that had triggered, we would be sitting on a -2.5% (unrealised) loss.
➤ Furthermore, we would have been chopped to pieces if other trades were triggered earlier in this consolidation phase. In that sense, Non-Trades are just as important as actual Trades. Although Non-trades will not make you a profit, it does prevent you from making a loss.
➤ I highlight all this because I take managing risks very seriously. My nickname is the Professional Loss Maker. I am an expert at handling losses. Afterall, you don't want Amateurs to be handling explosives. 💣
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 MrStocky the Non-Trader.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
DOW JONES: Inverse Head and Shoulders on 1W target 34,350.Dow Jones hit again the underlying Support which marked a low on January 16th. That was the Left Shoulder (LF) of a potential Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and if it holds again, this one will be the Right Shoulder (RS). The 1W timeframe is technically neutral (RSI = 49.180, MACD = 258.440, ADX = 22.862), which makes it a solid buy opportunity on a two month perspective. Our target is the bottom of the R1 Zone (TP = 34,350).
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A Nose Hair Away, 17 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ S&P500 showed further signs of weakness. Can you guess which stocks prevented the true weakness from showing? We were a nose hair away from triggering a Short trade. In fact I had the order page ready on all my trading platforms. Perhaps we need to wait another day.
➤ To be truthful, I'm glad we haven't been in any trades these past week or so. If a trade(s) had triggered, we would have been chopped to pieces. This may be due to pure luck on our part but I'd like to think that my Strategy didn't trigger those trades to avoid this potential.
➤ It's a totally different story when it comes to individual stock trading. Here trade potential is vast. This is one of the benefits over index trading. Even with my short-list of just 33 stocks divided by the main sectors of the S&P500, I have found plenty of trades.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 I can smell a Trade coming.
DOW JONES Death Cross on 4h after 3 months.Dow Jones posted its first Death Cross on the 4h timeframe since February 22th.
This should prepare us for more selling if Support (1) breaks.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell under Support (1).
2. Buy over the MA200 (4h).
Targets:
1. 32450 (Channel Down bottom).
2. 34500 (Megaphone top and Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. RSI (4h) is posting a price action indentical to the one on the start of the Megaphone.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
