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Djianalysis

This chart should scare the hell out of you.Doing a lot of research lately on the crash of 1929, and how that played out. In the first leg down (similar to where I think we are today), the market fell 40-50% in 3 months, similar to now. Then we had a snapback bear market rally, regaining 50% back of what was lost, which keep in mind means you only got back 20-25%. This took 5-6 months to play out, and I believe this will be the case starting in May/June and ending around October/November right before the election. If things play out as I think history has already fortold, this would be a sweeping victory for Biden which will usher in an era of socialist policies, and continue to support a further burning of stock markets until ~2022. So enjoy that snapback rally in the summer months and then if things start looking bad again, Get the F*** Out, or go short. BECAUSE, after the initial 5-6 month snapback rally of 1930, the market rolled over for another -85% decline!... I truly believe that there will be no safe place if this plays out. Commodities will go down, real estate will go down, crypto will burst and the few names that remain after will be like true gold, silver, platinum and such. This all being said, I'm not a fortune teller and this is not financial/investing advice. What this is is some perspective. And it makes sense if you think about our current demographics, war timelines, wealth inequality, inflated asset prices, and a bubble almost anywhere you want to look.
TVC:DJIShort
by MonetaryRebel
2
ridethepig | Getting Itchy Fingers in US Equities...Getting our bearings... If a retrace swing is checked in its advance only by opposing forces, waiting for sentiment to improve will mean you have missed out on a lot of the bounce. There is the recognition that when a crash like this happens, we must sacrifice a part of our own effectiveness just to help keep an eye on it, outguessing the lows is an advanced game, you will need to keep tracking continuously over the coming days/weeks. When we remember another signpost, name that the 2s5s was screaming recession last year in that it is a born defender, we will gradually get to the point where selling exhausts in Equities and is worthy of our respect. We need to ask ourselves...what is the best price to outguess an ambitious swing low? What is the most secure defence of our own portfolios? What is the cheapest stop cluster on the board to load into? e.g The lows at +/- 15,500 are once more open for a sweep, because new cycles are not suited to long-term populated ladder inactivities. This is much less the case when a swing is employed in such a chapter. Let us now take a look at some of the underlying factors that are weighing heavy right now, firstly the " Consumer Staples " chart of the previous chapter. In this connection, I must first mention the majority. At the start of the turn the low hanging fruit was there to be taken, but after the 2008 crisis it was one way traffic. As the game continues, Covid-19 is now marking the highs in this cycle, and then the majority of SMEs are under severe pressure against liquidity. Every day, uncompromised jobs are being lost with Jobless Claims exploding through the roof: A rule which is dictated not only by strategic necessity but much deeper, as I am sure you will admit, by sheer "good manners". The rule can be described with scientific precision as follows: => The knee-jerk lows of the decline is the candidate we are considering, as there is support at 15,500 I will look to fade dips into this area and then play a swing towards 35,000. With Oil on the $20 lows, sellers are looking to cripple Russia and Saudi. How simple! And yet, how often does one see weaker players advance the move, then comes the majority of retailers which is no value to us. We are approaching the final few chapters in the Oil decline too, the explanation is simple, they are undecided whether to start on the supply side cuts, so being unable to make up their minds (and killing US Shale in the meantime) markets do what all solid players do: they stick the knife in and cause maximum pain. In this position, sellers have a passed swing, but it can be seen more clearly in Monthly: This stopping is achieved by US placing one's focus on Gold and directly increasing the price of XAUUSD. But here, as in all other cases, the question arises: is Gold:Oil ratio (XAUUSD & XAUCNY | USOIL & CNYOIL contracts) not an unnecessary use of energy? Actually China managed to devalue the CNY right in-front of our eyes via Oil. The only way the US can now keep a healthy petrodollar market is by keeping a low gold:oil ratio which is either via low Gold and high Oil or High Gold and low Oil, you get the point. Two options are in play right now... either widespread defaults or I am glad to offer you what I believe is an exhaustive solution to the problem I have raised and inflate assets away. Nominal GDP will need to grow and your mediocre critic would sum up the problem in a short comment: write off student debts, or more helicopter money. But to my mind this betrays a poverty of thought! The why and wherefore are extraordinarily important. It would be ridiculous to write a piece here without a psychological element. In my books, its just as ridiculous to write a manual about swing strategy without immersing oneself in the innermost being of the participating drivers of flows. No matter how unusual the following scenario may seem, I can only insist on the fact that models show confidence collapsing in public assets which will trigger inflows towards private sector in the coming years. They too have desires that slumber unrecognised within them, and fears of which they are scarcely aware. But quite removed from that, a detailed case for the need to outguess the turn is more practical use than those who seek theory. Of course, I do not consider the presence of a practical plan as an extenuating development, for what have I do do with extenuating developments!! Take care everyone and thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
TVC:DJI
by ridethepig
6
Rally on DJI (Dow Jones)The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 11% to clock its biggest advance since 1933. Dow Jones futures jumped Tuesday morning, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, amid optimism about a massive stimulus deal. New support at 20,000 for DJI. Not sure how long this rally will last because its basically akin to printing money to keep the economy going. I feel the fundamentals are weakening but the artificial support might keep the market alive for a short period of time but long term wise, might be harmful for the economy. Just my 2 cents. hmm..
TVC:DJI
by Trader_hao
1