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Djianalysis

The Great Depression Fractal Returns! (Part IV - Mania)Time for a necessary update on the stock market - namely the Dow Jones Industrial Average. I decided to draw this one using the pitchfork tool, to create parallel channels for accuracy. My other DJI charts were drawn with more of a wedge. This chart uses a slightly different model, so some price targets may be revised from my initial speculations. Back in December 2018, I anticipated the drop and then suggested that consolidation and then an eventual move up would be possible, based on the strength of the bounce. As you can see when comparing the 1920's bubble with the current stock market rally, price action would end up being nearly identical. Without further ado, let me call your attention to the main features of this chart: A) The Main Uptrend Resistance (red) - The DJI has followed this trendline pretty closely since the 1929 crash. Since 1931, that red trendline has served as major resistance in 1937 and then repeatedly between 1999 and 2001. It was also major support in the run up to the 1929 crash. B) First Uptrend Support (light blue) - This trendline has numerous touches, and it has served as more of a pivot area than anything else. It probably has the most reactions compared with any of the other lines on this chart. It was major resistance from 1944-1954, major support from 1954-1969, major resistance again from 1969-1995, and has mostly acted as support (except a brief dip below during the 2008 crisis) from 1995 until the present. Our recent December dump actually bounced perfectly off this trendline. This one is very important. C) Lower Uptrend Support (purple) - This trendline has been respected ever since the bottom in 1932. We briefly slid below it during the financial crisis in the late 70's/early 80's, before staying well above it until we bounced heavily off it in 2008. During an eventual stock market correction, I'd expect this support to be tested again. This line should be watched for any potential growth slowdowns. If the Great Depression Fractal is to complete, we may even break below it. This would indicate a severe period of consolidation and slowed down growth (I actually think this would be healthy). This brings me to the next feature of my chart. D) The broadening triangle fractal (orange) - This is an interesting one. You can see that we bounced twice on a similar triangle prior to the Great Depression (two hammers on the bottom left of the main chart). We also did the same thing in 2002 and then again in early 2009. Trump's election spurred a breakout above the top resistance of the triangle, just as we did in 1925 before our final blow off top. If we are to follow exactly what happened after 1929, the DJI could drop all the way to the bottom triangle support, (indicated by the red finger). This would be a major technical failure, and would cause the DJI to drop out of its long term uptrend, if perhaps only briefly. C) The Blow-Off Top - The Dow Jones rallied from about 150 to 400 - a 2.66X increase once that broadening triangle resistance was broken. If the DJI did the same today, that would place a potential blow-off top target at around 50,000 - give or take a little. The reason I set this target is because the orange triangle was broken at around 18,950. A factor of 2.66 from there is 50,407. This means that the stock market could double up from here in a "mania" phase. I've changed my targets a bit from my previous analysis, because I'm looking more carefully at it. We could also get stopped by that red resistance before reaching 50K. If we break above those areas, I'd actually look for a longer stock market growth period. This would be interesting, as it would go against the economic downturn that almost everyone is expecting. This would mean that the stock market could just continue growing....all the way until another channel resistance is formed. Here is the comparison between the 1920's and present day: 1920's chart, where you can see that we might be about to begin a final bubble phase: Present Day Chart And What A Similar Crash Could Look Like: Anyway, I think the similarities are pretty clear. Whether or not it plays out remains to be seen. Perhaps the economy can figure itself out, and growth can be made in new areas (clean energy/environment, for example). This is a SHORT setup (if that orange triangle support is broken to the downside, but for now we can expect that prices MAY increase for a bit longer (even a couple more years)...barring any major disaster. A disaster could send us down to that purple support sooner. Likewise, this is a LONG setup if the most recent high is breached. I don't expect this to be a long term trade though. I personally don't feel comfortable buying stocks for the long term here. This is not financial advice. This chart is for future reference and is based entirely on speculation and my personal opinion. I'm not an expert - just a hobby analyst. Additionally, I personally believe that many tech stocks are overvalued, and that people might soon collectively lose interest in certain progressing technologies. For example, I think Apple stock is nearing a plateau. As such, I think we're nearing the end of a rally for many tech stocks. I think we've been in a bit of a bubble there for the last 15 years or so. I'm also curious to see how cryptocurrencies end up factoring in to all of this (and whether or not they will become a factor at all). Anyway, that's it for now! -Victor Cobra
TVC:DJIShort
by VictorCobra
5
DJI SHORT 1 HR My Trading DiaryHere the turning point sin DJI new highs (Blue Line) and new lows (red line) But with the real points where you had the chance to trade that system. In many cases the shwon trades of trading services have never been there in realtime. In also many other cases it has not been for normal traders any chance to do it like the pros. But here you are able if you watch my 1 HR Charts to start a long position at 25848 and to go short and out of this position at 26320 in Realtime = 470 Points Long + 180 Points Short at the moment 9.4. end of trading day as shown with the RED VERTICAL Lines. Good trades for all
TVC:DJIShort
by Renkotrade
Elliott Wave View: DJIA Futures (YM_F) Should Extend HigherShort term Elliott Wave view on Dow Jones Future (YM_F) suggests that rally from March 9, 2019 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. In the chart above, we can see wave (2) ended at 25448. Now wave (3) ended at around 26507. Up from 25448, wave 1 ended at 25823, wave 2 ended at 25744, wave 3 ended at 26289, and wave 4 ended at 26126 and wave 5 of (3) ended at 26507. Below from there it is in the wave (4) pullback before more upside afterwards should be seen. We don’t like selling the Index as the right side is to the upside against 25448 low.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Elliottwave-Forecast
DJI breakout or more choppy action?I'm using Log chart on monthly time frame. Dow Jones Industrial currently trading in very similar fashion of how price action looked before Dot-com bubble. Index must break 27000$ and trade above it for a while in order to continue higher. If we cannot get above recent top, more choppy action to follow based on almost identical structure we've seen before. If we cannot break higher of this blue box, 40% drop might follow. If that's the case, test of 2014-2015 lows might occur and give as 15500-16000$. This is pure speculation and just an idea to look at.. Have a great weekend ahead! DJ:DJI
DJ:DJI
by Patrikas10
DJI Situation end of 15.3.2019 LONG Hello everyone who is watching my charts. Here is the update to the end of today's DJI trading day The situation remains unchanged. What should we pay attention to on Monday? We now have 2 long trend lines the one in the steep Long channel I have marked blue. But I'm afraid this steep uptrend will not last long. But below that we have an interesting 2nd new long trend line which has developed the last few days and which I marked red. This trendline seems to me to be the more important in the longer term, As long as they do not break the situation continues long. First a break of this red line puts the Long Setup in a neutral setup. Underneath there is an important support in the area 25550 which I marked black. If it breaks we are in Short Terrain. But at least there is no sign of this level tonight. --------------------------- --This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only .Alllways do your own research--- ----------------------------
TVC:DJILong
by Renkotrade
DJI LONG BREAKOUT 15.3.2019 11:30 NYTNow we have an interesting sign here. DJI has break ot of the short channel (i have marked them in red) and comes bak to our well known blue trendline from 11.3.2019 Thats a really strong sign. DJI managed not only to go sideways out . Strong up and trading along the long line in blue. I exspected now higher prices Also to notice We have taken out the resistance at 25757 and thats also a fine long sign. I will update that at end of todays trading.
TVC:DJILong
by Renkotrade
DJI Situation 14.3. 10:00 NYT SHORT but possible tredn changeDJI has managed to get our off the sharp short channel i had marked fe day ago into a more wider short channel now i have marked in red to see them easily. But since 2 days we have also an established long trend to see at the blue long trendline which i have marked as support on the long side. Now we only can wait what will happens next. a) a brake of the blue long line as stay in short or b) a brake of the red line to get in a neutral and maybe long aerae. Both possibilities are equal weighed in my eyes and i cant see any advantage for one of them to forecast Lets check the DJI end of today trading, i am shure we can see more clearly the situation.
TVC:DJIShort
by Renkotrade
WARNING - GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE IS UPON US - DON'T U SEE IT?DJI - TA ANALYSIS - 'A perfect storm' US NATIONAL DEBT - $22 TRILLION GLOBAL DEBT - $244 TRILLION "World economy at risk of another financial crash," says IMF IMF warns storm clouds are gathering for next financial crisis Two recession warning signs are here - CNN The next financial crisis: Why it is looking like history may repeat itself - CNBC 4 Financial Savants Warn About The Great Crash Of 2020 - Forbes Another Warning That A 2019 Recession Is Coming - Forbes The 2020s Might Be The Worst Decade In US History - Forbes Hedge fund billionaire: 70% chance of recession before 2020 election - CNN There's no way to avert the next financial crisis, warn former regulators from 2008 meltdown - CNN Are You Ready for the Financial Crisis of 2019? - The New York Times Next crash will be 'worse than the Great Depression' - NY Post The next financial crisis is closer than you think - The Washington Post Fund managers are preparing for a crash - Yahoo Finance The Next Financial Crisis Is Staring Us in the Face - Bloomberg JPMorgan Predicts the Next Financial Crisis Will Strike in 2020 - Bloomberg Now take a step back and ask yourselves this question... What will people do with their money if investing in Real Estate, Stock Market, US Companies or holding any national currency is no longer a viable option?
DJ:DJIShort
by CryptoManiac101
26
DJI SHORT end of 12.3.2019In the opposite direction to the Nasdaq situation we have here now the DJI. DJI is still caught in the bigger short channel i have marked in red lines. He tried to go out at end of yesterday and start of todays trading but the outbreak failed. Now the upper line (i have matrked the channel in red lines) is the important resistance line for the ext trading days. Unfortunately for the bulls the yesterday established long trendline has been broken today (now in orange color) That not a strong sign. It is to exspect either a fall dwon in the trend channel or a sideways go out, but also these possibility is NOT a long setup. If that occures we have to check the situation new whether there comes up a new long trendlie or similar strong signs or not. So for now situation is still Short in the channel --This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only .Alllways do your own research---
TVC:DJIShort
by Renkotrade
DJI SHORT end of 8.3.2019 Short trendchannels establishedDJI is now rading in he new short trendchannel i have marked them with red lines. These channel is split in a smaller more shorter range i have marked ht upper line of that part of channel in purple and the its own lower side , marked in red. So in a few words: Between the lower red and the purple line has been the shortest range. 1 Time Buyers have tried to put DJI out of them but since end to 8.3. they have not really been succesfull. We have to check on monday whether the next try which has been started at end of yesterdays trading (25548) will be now successfull. That would be a first sign of a litte bit revocery. Next step would be to get on the upper side and upper trendline (upper red line) of the channel If DJI reach the level of 25600 till end of monday trading and climb avove that aerea the setup will going to neutral. All below this is stay in short
TVC:DJIShort
by Renkotrade
Situation DJI at end of 7.3.2019 SHORTAt end of trading day 7.3.2019 there is now really news to tell. We have established now a new short downtrend channel i have marked in purple to have a road for the next days. There is also as you can see a trend resistance channel with a deeper fall, i have marked with orange resistance line. I think in 1 of these channels we will se DJI tomorrow and than we check situation again. There is a added resistance zone also marked in orange now at 25560 we have to check to see a first sign of end of short. (Whether DJI climbs above that) But even IF, that only a sign, that NOT a new long signal.
TVC:DJIShort
by Renkotrade
Unemployment Rate VS Dow JonesUnemployment Rates have hit the lowest value since 1970. Each time the UnRATE has reached a bottom and bounced up, we have experienced a stock market decline, in some cases a recession. This also lines up with 7-10 years economic cycles. We are on our tenth year since our last stock market correction. What seems very interesting is the fact that Crypto looks to have hit its bottom and is looking to start its next 3 year bull run. Stock market crashes last around 2-4 years (usually). This looks for crypto and the stock market to be inverse the next few years. Fidelity is launching its crypto trading platform for institutional clients sometime this month. Will this provide a bridge for institutions to transfer their money out of the stock market into crypto? It seems that way. If this is the case then we are about to experience a very large transfer of wealth. What will 85% of people feel when the stock market is declining and Crypto is going up? They will feel FOMO. They will also be looking for a safe haven for their cash, maybe its going to be digital gold this time...
DJ:DJI
by traderview2
6
Situation DJI end of 5.3.2019 SHORT Resistance not brokenAs i wrote in the chart the resistance line at 25880 (nearly) is to beat for long. For today the bulls havent had enough power to kill it. That seems to be at the moment that situation is still short but we have a chance for a long change if that resistance will be took out from the market. On the other hand if the next days the come back above this line will not come true that a clear sign of weakness and we shall see more trend to the downside
TVC:DJIShort
by Renkotrade